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Timeline of prediction markets

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|Legal
|The {{W|Federal Wire Act}} becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire communication facility for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-75/pdf/STATUTE-75-Pg491.pdf|title=Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
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|1975
|Fiction
|John Brunner publishes ''The Shockwave Rider'', a science fiction story involving a prediction market named the Delphi pool.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL24612647M/The_shockwave_rider|title=The shockwave rider|last=Brunner|first=John|date=1975|publisher=Harper & Row|edition=Book club ed.|location=New York}}</ref>
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|1988
|Launch
|Long Bets Foundation is found as a 501(c)(3) public education nonprofit foundation by {{W|The Long Now Foundation}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021001000000*/http://longbets.org/about/|title=Wayback Machine|date=2002-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|2002
|Performance
|Chen and Plott (2002) ran eight prediction markets within Hewlett-Packard to forecast important variables like quarterly printer sales.These results showed that the markets were more accurate than the company’s official forecasts.<ref>{{Citation|last=Chen|first=Kay-Yut|title=Chapter 40 Markets and Information Aggregation Mechanisms|date=2008|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1574-0722(07)00040-6|work=Handbook of Experimental Economics Results|pages=344–352|publisher=Elsevier|isbn=9780444826428|access-date=2018-09-23|last2=Plott|first2=Charles R.}}</ref>
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|2002
|Corporate
|Google announces that it has been using prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051001072152/https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html|title=Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work|date=2005-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|2006
|Launch
|XFuture, a Chinese-language prediction market exchange, is launched collaboratively by the Center for Prediction Markets at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University and xPredict Ltd.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://nccupm.wordpress.com/the-exchange-of-future-events/|title=The Exchange of Future Events|date=2010-05-07|work=政治大學預測市場研究中心|access-date=2018-09-23|language=zh-TW}}</ref>
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|2006
|Corporate
|Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, with the goals of promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170429103454/http://www.cometoknow.com/prediction-market-industry-association|title=PMIA – Come to Know|date=2017-04-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|2008
|Publication
|A New York Times article discusses the use of prediction markets at InterContinental Hotels, Best Buy, Cisco Systems, GE Healthcare, General Mills, ArcelorMittal, Swisscom, and others. <ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/09/technology/techspecial/09predict.html|title=Betting to Improve the Odds|last=Lohr|first=Steve|access-date=2018-09-23|language=en}}</ref>
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|2008
|Legal
|The CFTC solicits comments on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2008/05/07/E8-9981/concept-release-on-the-appropriate-regulatory-treatment-of-event-contracts|title=Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts|date=2008-05-07|work=Federal Register|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|2008
|Publication
|A joint statement by 22 lead economists and scientists is published in Science on the promise of prediction markets, demanding that the CFTC should "establish safe-harbor rules for selected small-stakes markets" and that "Congress should support the CFTC’s efforts to develop prediction markets".<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Arrow|first=K. J.|last2=Forsythe|first2=R.|last3=Gorham|first3=M.|last4=Hahn|first4=R.|last5=Hanson|first5=R.|last6=Ledyard|first6=J. O.|last7=Levmore|first7=S.|last8=Litan|first8=R.|last9=Milgrom|first9=P.|date=2008-05-16|title=ECONOMICS: The Promise of Prediction Markets|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1157679|journal=Science|volume=320|issue=5878|pages=877–878|doi=10.1126/science.1157679|issn=0036-8075}}</ref>
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|2009
|Fiction
|Eliezer Yudkowsky publishes the science fiction story ''Three Worlds Collide'' featuring a civilization using prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HawFh7RvDM4RyoJ2d/three-worlds-collide-0-8|title=Three Worlds Collide|last=Yudkowsky|first=Eliezer|date=2009|website=LessWrong|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
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|2010
|Launch
|David Pennock, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, announces PredictWiseQ, an implementation of combinatorial prediction market design.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121020123214/http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/|title=Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog|date=2012-10-20|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|2013
|Legal
|CFTC charges “Prediction Market” Banc de Binary Ltd, an Israeli firm, with violating the CFTC’s off-exchange options trading Ban and operating as an unregistered Futures Commission Merchant.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6602-13|title=CFTC Charges “Prediction Market” Proprietor Banc de Binary with Violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and Operating as an Unregistered Futures Commission Merchant {{!}} U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION|website=www.cftc.gov|language=en|access-date=2018-09-23}}</ref>
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|2013
|Publication
|A blog post discusses using prediction markets to fund public goods.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://ideophilus.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/betting-against-public-goods-that-you-want/|title=Betting against public goods that you want|date=2013-10-20|work=Ideophilus|access-date=2018-09-23|language=en-US}}</ref>
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|2013
|Launch
|CrowdMed, a company aiming to identify illnesses that have gone without a diagnosis using prediction markets, is part of the [[Y Combinator (company)|Y Combinator]] winter 2013 class and launches its public beta at [[TEDMED]] 2013 in [[Washington, D.C.]]<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://techcrunch.com/2013/04/16/crowdmed/|title=With $1.1 Million In Funding, YC-Backed CrowdMed Launches To Crowdsource Medical Diagnoses|work=TechCrunch|access-date=2018-09-23|language=en-US}}</ref>
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|2013
|Performance
|{{W|The Good Judgment Project}} wins IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131127133205/https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/|title=Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)|date=2013-11-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|2013
|Performance
|(Snowberg, Wolfers, Zitzewitz 2013) show that the track record of prediction markets out-perform both
professional forecasters and polls in a variety of statistical tests.<ref>{{Citation|last=Snowberg|first=Erik|title=Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting|date=2013|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-444-53683-9.00011-6|work=Handbook of Economic Forecasting|pages=657–687|publisher=Elsevier|isbn=9780444536839|access-date=2018-09-23|last2=Wolfers|first2=Justin|last3=Zitzewitz|first3=Eric}}</ref>
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|2014
|Publication
|An article by Paul Sztorc of Truthcoin discusses applications of prediction markets outside of prediction, such as lie detection, whistleblowing, stabilizing crypto-assets, policy advice, etc.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://bitcoinhivemind.com/papers/3_PM_Applications.pdf|title=Extra-Predictive Applications of Prediction Markets|last=Sztorc|first=Paul|date=2014|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
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|2014
|2014
|Discontinuation
|DAGGRE stops. Robin Hanson annonces announces SciCast , a combinatorial prediction markets for aggregating expertise, as part of IARPA's ForeST program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140503011442/http://www.overcomingbias.com/2014/01/announcingscicast.html|title=Overcoming Bias : Announcing: SciCast|date=2014-05-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|2014
|Launch
|Launch of Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151224181609/https://www.metaculus.com|title=Metaculus|date=2015-12-24|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|2015
|Publication
|SciCast releases its final report.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160124094102/http://blog.scicast.org/download/scicast-final-report-public/|title=SciCast Final Report (Public) {{!}} The Official SciCast Blog|date=2016-01-24|access-date=2018-09-23}}</ref>
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|2015