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Speculative timeline of future malaria events

11,991 bytes added, 11:07, 1 January 2020
Full timeline
This is a '''speculative timeline of future malaria events''', attempting to describe estimates of future events related to the malaria disease.
 
== Sample questions ==
 
The following are some interesting questions that can be answered by reading this timeline:
 
* Which countries are expected to eradicate malaria in the coming years?
* What is the prospect of {{w|malaria vaccine}} development?
* What is the prospect of antimalarial drug development?
* What are some estimates of the future of the epidemic?
==Big picture==
{| class="wikitable"
! Time period !! Development summary !! More details |-| 2020s || A malaria vaccine is expected to reach the market by this decade. Non-invasive diagnostic for mass population screening is expected to be released. Malaria would be eradicated in a number of countries, including {{w|India}}, {{w|Thailand}}, {{w|Cambodia}}, {{w|Zambia}}, and {{w|Costa Rica}}.|-| 2030s || Malaria is expected to be eradicated in {{w|Brazil}}, {{w|Indonesia}}, {{w|Vietnam}}, and {{w|Laos}}|-| 2040s and beyond || Global malaria eradication could be achieved by 2050 according to some scientists. Other estimate that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, {{w|Africa}}.
|-
|}
{| class="sortable wikitable"
! Year !! Event type !! Details !! Location !! Predictor !! Origin Type of prediction || Date of prediction|-| 2020 || Eradication || The {{w|World Health Organization}} identifies 21 countries with the potential to achieve zero indigenous cases of malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Eliminating malaria: 21 countries, a common goal |url=https://www.who.int/malaria/areas/elimination/e2020/en/ |website=who.int |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref> || || {{w|World Health Organization}} || Study || 2016|-| 2020 || Eradication || {{w|Bhutan}} plans to eliminate malaria by this year, after the country failed to meet its target to eliminate the disease by 2018.<ref>{{cite web |title=Bhutan now targets to eliminate Malaria by 2020 |url=http://www.bbs.bt/news/?p=120435 |website=bbs.bt |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Bhutan}} || Government of Bhutan || Project || Agust, 2019
|-
| 2020 || Eradication || Costa Rica hopes to report zero indigenous malaria cases in this year.<ref name="Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022"/> || {{w|Costa Rica}} || Costa Rica Ministry of Health || Project || November, 2019
|-
| 2020 || Drug || Single-dose drug OZ Ferroquine is expected to launch this year.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors"/> || || || ||
|-
| 2020 || Eradication/Vaccine || A senior government official in Botswana describes the new malaria vaccine, [[w:RTS,S|RTS,S/AS01]], as a boost to Botswana's aspiration to eliminate the disease by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=New malaria vaccine to boost Botswana's aspiration to eliminate disease by 2020: official |url=http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-06/28/c_138179260.htm |website=xinhuanet.com |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Botswana}} || Government of Botswana || Project || June, 2019
|-
| 2020 || Diagnosis || A diagnostic tool consisting in the first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to start field trials being rolled out in the {{w|Democratic Republic of Congo}} or {{w|Uganda}} in the second quarter of this year.<ref name="thejournalofmhealth.com">{{cite web |title=Funding Aids Development of Saliva-based Diagnostic Tool in Bid to Rid World of Malaria |url=https://thejournalofmhealth.com/funding-aids-development-of-saliva-based-diagnostic-tool-in-bid-to-rid-world-of-malaria/ |website=thejournalofmhealth.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Democratic Republic of Congo}}, {{w|Uganda}} || || Project ||
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| 2020 || Drug || KAE609 is expected to be used in combination with other drugs to counter parasite's ability to develop resistance.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors"/> || || || ||
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| 2020–2021 || Drug || New active ingredients from library screens of agrochemical industry partners ({{w|Syngenta}}, {{w|Bayer}}, {{w|Sumitomo}}, {{w|Dow Chemical Company}}) are expected to be launched.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors"/> || || Project || ||
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| 2021 || Eradication || {{w|Zambia}} aims to eliminate malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Zambia aims to eradicate malaria by 2021: health minister |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zambia-malaria/zambia-aims-to-eradicate-malaria-by-2021-health-minister-idUSKBN1JN1YA |website=reuters.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Zambia}} || [[w:Ministry of Health (Zambia)|Ministry of Health]] || Project || June 27, 2018
|-
| 2021 || Treatment || London based medical device company MediSieve aims to launch a magnetic blood filter intended to enable doctors to remove infected red blood cells from the bloodstream directly, thus reducing parasitaemia, which would result in the usage of fewer IV drugs while minimizing hospital time – leading to cost savings.<ref>{{cite web |title=World Malaria Day: Five latest devices to combat the spread of malaria |url=https://www.nsmedicaldevices.com/news/world-malaria-day-devices-combat-malaria/ |website=nsmedicaldevices.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|United Kingdom}} || MediSieve || Project || ~2019
|-
| 2021 || Eradication || The Peruvian Malaria Cero program aims to eradicate malaria in the {{w|Peruvian Amazonia}} by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Forecasting Malaria in the Western Amazon |url=https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNH53A0136P/abstract |website=ui.adsabs.harvard.edu |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria |url=https://www.paho.org/per/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4077:malaria&Itemid=0 |website=paho.org |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Peru}} ({{w|Peruvian Amazonia}}) || Peruvian Health Ministry || Project || 2017
|-
| 2021–2025 || Diagnostic || Non-invasive diagnostic for mass population screening is expected to be released.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors"/> || || || ||
|-
| 2022 || Eradication || Costa Rica expects to eliminate malaria nationwide by this year.<ref name="Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022">{{cite web |title=Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022 |url=https://ticotimes.net/2019/11/07/costa-rica-hopes-to-eliminate-malaria-in-country-by-2022 |website=ticotimes.net |accessdate=11 November 2019}}</ref>|| {{w|Costa Rica}} || Costa Rican Ministry of Health || Project || November, 2019
| 2023 || Eradication || About 16 million lives are expected to be saved, and 234 million infections are expected to be averted by that year, after announcement by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria of having raised US$14.02 billion for its next three-year funding cycle.<ref name="The RBM Partnership to End Malaria leads global malaria community in celebrating successful Global Fund replenishment">{{cite web |title=The RBM Partnership to End Malaria leads global malaria community in celebrating successful Global Fund replenishment |url=https://endmalaria.org/news/rbm-partnership-end-malaria-leads-global-malaria-community-celebrating-successful-global-fund |website=endmalaria.org |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || Worldwide || {{w|Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria}} || Project || October 10, 2019
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| 2023 || Eradication || The {{w|Government of Indonesia}} expects that the {{w|World Health Organization}} can declare {{w|Java}} and {{w|Bali}} malaria-free by this year.<ref name="thejakartapost">{{cite web |title=Let’s fight malaria one region at a time |url=https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2019/09/11/lets-fight-malaria-one-region-at-a-time.html |website=thejakartapost.com |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Indonesia}} ({{w|Java}}, {{w|Bali}}) || {{w|Government of Indonesia}} || Project || |-| 2024 || Vaccine || The Global Malaria Vaccines Market, by Vaccine Type (Pre-Erythrocytic Vaccine, Erythrocytic Vaccine, Multi-antigen Vaccine), by Agent (''{{w|Plasmodium Falciparum}}'', ''{{w|Plasmodium Vivax}}''), and by Distribution Channel (Hospitals, Clinics, Community Centers) is expected to be valued at US$ 50.6 million in this year.<ref name="nbc29.com">{{cite web |title=At 150.0% CAGR, Malaria Vaccines Market to Surge past US$ 790.7 Million by 2027 | Key Findings, Regional Analysis, and Key Players GlaxoSmithKline plc, Sanaria Inc., Nobelpharma Co., Ltd., Sumaya Biot |url=https://www.nbc29.com/story/40957707/at-1500-cagr-malaria-vaccines-market-to-surge-past-us-7907-million-by-2027-key-findings-regional-analysis-and-key-players-glaxosmithkline-plc-sanaria |website=nbc29.com |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || || || Estimate || August, 2019
|-
| 2024 || Vaccine || {{w|RTS,S/AS01}} (trade name Mosquirix) is expected to be marketed in this year.<ref name="nbc29.com"/> || || || Project || August, 2019
|-
| 2024 || Eradication || {{w|Thailand}} aims to eliminate malaria from the country by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Thailand Government launches campaign to eliminate malaria by 2024 |url=https://www.aplma.org/blog/31/thailand-government-launches-campaign-to-eliminate-malaria-by-2024.html |website=aplma.org |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Thailand's fight to eliminate malaria by 2024 |url=https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1666208/thailands-fight-to-eliminate-malaria-by-2024 |website=bangkokpost.com |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Thailand}} || Government of Thailandia || Project || April 25, 2016|-| 2025 || Eradication || {{w|Cambodia}} aims to eliminate malaria infections by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Millions to receive insecticide-treated mosquito nets |url=http://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/fr/node/251258 |website=thenewhumanitarian.org |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Cambodia}} || Cambodian Prime Minister || Project || |-| 2025 || Eradication || The {{w|Government of Indonesia}} expects that the {{w|World Health Organization}} can declare {{w|Sumatra}}, {{w|Sulawesi}} and {{w|West Nusa Tenggara}} malaria-free by this year.<ref name="thejakartapost"/> || {{w|Indonesia}} ({{w|Sumatra}}, {{w|Sulawesi}}, {{w|West Nusa Tenggara}}) || {{w|Government of Indonesia}} || Project || |-| 2025 || Eradication || Vietnam expects to eliminate the ''{{w|Plasmodium falciparum}}'' malaria parasite by this year.<ref name="english.vov.vn">{{cite web |title=Vietnam aims to eradicate malaria by 2030 |url=https://english.vov.vn/society/vietnam-aims-to-eradicate-malaria-by-2030-395752.vov |website=english.vov.vn |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Vietnam}} || Government of Vietnam || Project || April, 2019|-| 2025 || Vaccine || The Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap expects to develop a ''{{w|P. Falciparum}}'' malaria vaccine that would have a protective efficacy of more than 80% against clinical disease and would provide protection for longer than four years.<ref>{{cite web |title=Global strategy aims for effective malaria vaccine by 2025 |url=https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2006/np35/en/ |website=who.int |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || || Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap || Project || December, 2006|-| 2026 || Vaccine || The global malaria vaccines market is expected to reach US$ 134.9 million by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=At 33.2% CAGR, Malaria Vaccines Market Size Set to Register 134.9 million USD by 2026 |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/at-332-cagr-malaria-vaccines-market-size-set-to-register-1349-million-usd-by-2026-2019-05-08 |website=marketwatch.com |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || || || Study || May, 2019|-| 2026 || Vaccine || The malaria vaccines market is expected to reach US$ 156.8 million by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Vaccines Market Outlook 2018-2026 by Major Key Players Like GlaxoSmithKline, GenVec, Inc., Nobelpharma, and Sanaria others |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/malaria-vaccines-market-outlook-2018-2026-by-major-key-players-like-glaxosmithkline-genvec-inc-nobelpharma-and-sanaria-others-2019-09-17 |website=marketwatch.com |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || || Polaris Market Research || Study || September, 2019|-| 2027 || Eradication || The {{w|Government of Indonesia}} expects that the {{w|World Health Organization}} can declare {{w|Kalimantan}} and {{w|North Maluku}} malaria-free by this year.<ref name="thejakartapost"/> || {{w|Indonesia}} ({{w|Kalimantan}}, {{w|North Maluku}}) || {{w|Government of Indonesia}} || Project ||
|-
| 2027 || Eradication || The {{w|Indian Government}} National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination aims to eradicate malaria from the country by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination (2017-22) |url=http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/content/445149/national-strategic-plan-for-malaria-elimination-2017-22/ |website=indiaenvironmentportal.org.in |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=World Malaria Day 2019 |url=https://www.nhp.gov.in/world-malaria-day-2019_pg |website=nhp.gov.in |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|India}} || {{w|Indian Government}} || Project || 2017|-| 2028 || Eradication || {{w|Vanuatu}} Prime Minister claims malaria will be eradicated in the country's 83 islands by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria eradication by 2028 |url=https://dailypost.vu/news/malaria-eradication-by/article_ca5be1dd-d285-527c-94fa-e21e66d98d0f.html |website=dailypost.vu |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria expected to be eradicated from Vanuatu by 2028 |url=https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/356279/malaria-expected-to-be-eradicated-from-vanuatu-by-2028 |website=rnz.co.nz |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Vanatu}} || Vanuatu Government || Project || April, 2018 |-| 2028 || Eradication || The {{w|Government of Indonesia}} expects that the {{w|World Health Organization}} can declare {{w|Maluku}} and {{w|Nusa Tenggara Timur}} malaria-free by this year.<ref name="thejakartapost"/> || {{w|Indonesia}} ({{w|Maluku}}, {{w|Nusa Tenggara Timur}}) || {{w|Government of Indonesia}} || Project || |-| 2029 || Eradication || The {{w|Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation}} aims to have {{w|CRISPR}} gene modified mosquitoes approved for field use by this year somewhere in Africa. The research focuses on developing a “gene drive” to aid in the genetic engineering of the species of mosquito responsible for the proliferation of malaria.<ref>{{cite web |title=Bill Gates Doubles His Bet on Wiping Out Mosquitoes with Gene Editing |url=https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602304/bill-gates-doubles-his-bet-on-wiping-out-mosquitoes-with-gene-editing/ |website=technologyreview.com |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || Africa || {{w|Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation}} || Project || |-| 2030 || Eradication || {{w|Laos}} pledges to eliminate malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=U.S. PROVIDES 174,000 ADDITIONAL MOSQUITO NETS TO PREVENT MALARIA |url=https://www.usaid.gov/laos/press-releases/july-17-2019-us-provides-174000-additional-mosquito-nets-prevent-malaria |website=usaid.gov |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=TOWARDS A MALARIA-FREE LAOS |url=https://www.unops.org/news-and-stories/stories/stamping-out-malaria-for-good/towards-a-malaria-free-laos |website=unops.org |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Laos}} || Government of Laos || Project || |-| 2030 || Eradication || {{w| Indonesia }} aims to become malaria-free by this year.<ref name="West Java aims to be malaria-free by 2022"/> || {{w|Indonesia}} || {{w|Government of Indonesia}} || Project || 2008|-| 2030 || Eradication || {{w|Vietnam}} aims to eradicate malaria by this year.<ref name="english.vov.vn"/> || {{w|Vietnam}} || Government of Vietnam || Project || April, 2019
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| 2030 || Eradication || The {{w|Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria}} expects to meet the Sustainable Development Goals target of ending {{w|AIDS}}, {{w|tuberculosis}} and {{w|malaria}} as epidemics by that year.<ref name="The RBM Partnership to End Malaria leads global malaria community in celebrating successful Global Fund replenishment"/> || Worldwide || {{w|Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria}} || Project || October 10, 2019
|-
| 2030 || Eradication || {{w|Brazil}} national strategy (Plano de Eliminação da Malária no Brasil), together with the Global Technical Strategy for Malaria aim to eliminate malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite journal |title=Environmental and socioeconomic analysis of malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon, 2010–2015 |doi=10.11606/s1518-8787.2019053000983 |url=http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-89102019000100244}}</ref> || {{w|Brazil}} || {{w|Government of Brazil}} || Project || 2016
|-
| 2035 || Eradication || Cameroon's national malaria control program (NMCP) aims to reduce malaria transmission to less than 10% by this year in the country, using high coverage of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) as the cornerstone of the program's malaria control strategy.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors">{{cite journal |last1=Ndo |first1=Cyrille |last2=Kopya |first2=Edmond |last3=Donbou |first3=Marie Agathe |last4=Njiokou |first4=Flobert |last5=Awono-Ambene |first5=Parfait |last6=Wondji |first6=Charles |title=Elevated Plasmodium infection rates and high pyrethroid resistance in major malaria vectors in a forested area of Cameroon highlight challenges of malaria control |journal=Parasites & Vectors |url=https://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13071-018-2759-y}}</ref> || {{w|Cameroon}} || National malaria control program || Project ||
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| 2040 || Eradication || Study finds that achieving malaria eradication by this year would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. It would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Willis |first1=Derek W. |last2=Hamon |first2=Nick |title=Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality |doi=10.12688/gatesopenres.12843.2 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6266653/ |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Worldwide}} || || Study ||
* [[Timeline of malaria]]
* [[Timeline of malaria vaccine]]
* [[Timeline of malaria in 2014]]
* [[Timeline of malaria in 2015]]
* [[Timeline of malaria in 2016]]
* [[Timeline of malaria in 2017]]
* [[Timeline of malaria in 2018]]
==External links==
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