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Speculative timeline of future malaria events

847 bytes added, 11:07, 1 January 2020
Full timeline
== Sample questions ==
The following are some interesting questions that can be answered by reading this timeline:
* Which countries are expected to eradicate malaria in the coming years?
* What is the prospect of {{w|malaria vaccine}} development?
* What is the prospect of antimalarial drug development?
* What are some estimates of the future of the epidemic?
==Big picture==
! Time period !! Development summary
|-
| 2020s || A malaria vaccine is expected to reach the market by this decade. Non-invasive diagnostic for mass population screening is expected to be released. Malaria would be eradicated from in a number of countries, including {{w|India}}, {{w|Thailand}}, {{w|Vietam}}, {{w|Cambodia}}, {{w|Zambia}}, and {{w|Costa Rica}}.
|-
| 2030s ||Malaria is expected to be eradicated in {{w|Brazil}}, {{w|Indonesia}}, {{w|Vietnam}}, and {{w|Laos}}|-| 2040s and beyond || Global malaria eradication could be achieved by 2050 according to some scientists. Other estimate that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, {{w|Africa}}.
|-
|}
! Year !! Event type !! Details !! Location !! Predictor !! Type of prediction || Date of prediction
|-
| 2020 || Eradication || The {{w|World Health Organization}} identifies 21 countries with the potential to achieve zero indigenous cases of malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Eliminating malaria: 21 countries, a common goal |url=https://www.who.int/malaria/areas/elimination/e2020/en/ |website=who.int |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref> || || {{w|World Health Organization}} || Study || 2016 ||
|-
| 2020 || Eradication || {{w|Bhutan}} plans to eliminate malaria by this year, after the country failed to meet its target to eliminate the disease by 2018.<ref>{{cite web |title=Bhutan now targets to eliminate Malaria by 2020 |url=http://www.bbs.bt/news/?p=120435 |website=bbs.bt |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Bhutan}} || Government of Bhutan || Project || Agust, 2019
| 2020 || Diagnosis || A diagnostic tool consisting in the first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to start field trials being rolled out in the {{w|Democratic Republic of Congo}} or {{w|Uganda}} in the second quarter of this year.<ref name="thejournalofmhealth.com">{{cite web |title=Funding Aids Development of Saliva-based Diagnostic Tool in Bid to Rid World of Malaria |url=https://thejournalofmhealth.com/funding-aids-development-of-saliva-based-diagnostic-tool-in-bid-to-rid-world-of-malaria/ |website=thejournalofmhealth.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Democratic Republic of Congo}}, {{w|Uganda}} || || Project ||
|-
| 2020 || Drug || KAE609 is expected to be used in combination with other drugs to counter parasite's ability to develop resistance.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors"/> || || || ||
|-
| 2020–2021 || Drug || New active ingredients from library screens of agrochemical industry partners ({{w|Syngenta}}, {{w|Bayer}}, {{w|Sumitomo}}, {{w|Dow Chemical Company}}) are expected to be launched.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors"/> || || Project || ||
|-
| 2021 || Eradication || {{w|Zambia}} aims to eliminate malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Zambia aims to eradicate malaria by 2021: health minister |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zambia-malaria/zambia-aims-to-eradicate-malaria-by-2021-health-minister-idUSKBN1JN1YA |website=reuters.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Zambia}} || [[w:Ministry of Health (Zambia)|Ministry of Health]] || Project || June 27, 2018
| 2021 || Eradication || The Peruvian Malaria Cero program aims to eradicate malaria in the {{w|Peruvian Amazonia}} by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Forecasting Malaria in the Western Amazon |url=https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNH53A0136P/abstract |website=ui.adsabs.harvard.edu |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria |url=https://www.paho.org/per/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4077:malaria&Itemid=0 |website=paho.org |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Peru}} ({{w|Peruvian Amazonia}}) || Peruvian Health Ministry || Project || 2017
|-
| 2021–2025 || Diagnostic || Non-invasive diagnostic for mass population screening is expected to be released.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors"/> || || || ||
|-
| 2022 || Eradication || Costa Rica expects to eliminate malaria nationwide by this year.<ref name="Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022">{{cite web |title=Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022 |url=https://ticotimes.net/2019/11/07/costa-rica-hopes-to-eliminate-malaria-in-country-by-2022 |website=ticotimes.net |accessdate=11 November 2019}}</ref>|| {{w|Costa Rica}} || Costa Rican Ministry of Health || Project || November, 2019
| 2025 || Eradication || Vietnam expects to eliminate the ''{{w|Plasmodium falciparum}}'' malaria parasite by this year.<ref name="english.vov.vn">{{cite web |title=Vietnam aims to eradicate malaria by 2030 |url=https://english.vov.vn/society/vietnam-aims-to-eradicate-malaria-by-2030-395752.vov |website=english.vov.vn |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Vietnam}} || Government of Vietnam || Project || April, 2019
|-
| 2025 || Vaccine || The Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap expects to develop a ''{{w|P. Falciparum}}'' malaria vaccine that would have a protective efficacy of more than 80% against clinical disease and would provide protection for longer than four years.<ref>{{cite web |title=Global strategy aims for effective malaria vaccine by 2025 |url=https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2006/np35/en/ |website=who.int |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || || Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap || Project || December, 2006
|-
| 2026 || Vaccine || The global malaria vaccines market is expected to reach US$ 134.9 million by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=At 33.2% CAGR, Malaria Vaccines Market Size Set to Register 134.9 million USD by 2026 |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/at-332-cagr-malaria-vaccines-market-size-set-to-register-1349-million-usd-by-2026-2019-05-08 |website=marketwatch.com |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || || || Study || May, 2019
* [[Timeline of malaria]]
* [[Timeline of malaria vaccine]]
* [[Timeline of malaria in 2014]]
* [[Timeline of malaria in 2015]]
* [[Timeline of malaria in 2016]]
* [[Timeline of malaria in 2017]]
* [[Timeline of malaria in 2018]]
==External links==
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