Changes

Jump to: navigation, search

Speculative timeline of future malaria events

66 bytes added, 07:44, 11 November 2019
Full timeline
{| class="sortable wikitable"
! Year !! Event type !! Details !! Location !! Predictor !! Origin of prediction || Date of prediction
|-
| 2020 || Eradication || Costa Rica hopes to report zero indigenous malaria cases in this year.<ref name="Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022"/> || {{w|Costa Rica}} || Costa Rica Ministry of Health || || November, 2019
|-
| 2020 || Diagnosis || A diagnostic tool consisting in the first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to start field trials being rolled out in the {{w|Democratic Republic of Congo}} or {{w|Uganda}} in the second quarter of this year.<ref name="thejournalofmhealth.com">{{cite web |title=Funding Aids Development of Saliva-based Diagnostic Tool in Bid to Rid World of Malaria |url=https://thejournalofmhealth.com/funding-aids-development-of-saliva-based-diagnostic-tool-in-bid-to-rid-world-of-malaria/ |website=thejournalofmhealth.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Democratic Republic of Congo}}, {{w|Uganda}} || || ||
|-
| 2021 || Eradication || {{w|Zambia}} aims to eliminate malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Zambia aims to eradicate malaria by 2021: health minister |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zambia-malaria/zambia-aims-to-eradicate-malaria-by-2021-health-minister-idUSKBN1JN1YA |website=reuters.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Zambia}} || [[w:Ministry of Health (Zambia)|Ministry of Health]] || || June 27, 2018
|-
| 2021 || Diagnosis || The world’s first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to be launched by this year by South Africa-based Erada Technology Alliance, in collaboration with international partners CellFree Sciences, Frontier Institute, Johns Hopkins University and Oasis Diagnostics.<ref name="thejournalofmhealth.com"/> || {{w|Africa}} || || ||
|-
| 2021 || Treatment || London based medical device company MediSieve aims to launch a magnetic blood filter intended to enable doctors to remove infected red blood cells from the bloodstream directly, thus reducing parasitaemia, which would result in the usage of fewer IV drugs while minimizing hospital time – leading to cost savings.<ref>{{cite web |title=World Malaria Day: Five latest devices to combat the spread of malaria |url=https://www.nsmedicaldevices.com/news/world-malaria-day-devices-combat-malaria/ |website=nsmedicaldevices.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|United Kingdom}} || MediSieve || || ~2019
|-
| 2022 || Eradication || Costa Rica expects to eliminate malaria nationwide by this year.<ref name="Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022">{{cite web |title=Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022 |url=https://ticotimes.net/2019/11/07/costa-rica-hopes-to-eliminate-malaria-in-country-by-2022 |website=ticotimes.net |accessdate=11 November 2019}}</ref>|| {{w|Costa Rica}} || Costa Rican Ministry of Health || || November, 2019
|-
| 2022 || Eradication (project) || The {{w|West Java}} administration aims to be malaria-free by this year.<ref name="West Java aims to be malaria-free by 2022">{{cite web |title=West Java aims to be malaria-free by 2022 |url=https://reliefweb.int/report/indonesia/west-java-aims-be-malaria-free-2022 |website=reliefweb.int |accessdate=11 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Indonesia}} ({{w|West Java}}) || West Java health agency || || May, 2019
|-
| 2030 || Eradication (project) || Indonesia aims to become malaria-free by this year.<ref name="West Java aims to be malaria-free by 2022"/> || {{w|Indonesia}} || {{w|Government of Indonesia}} || || 2008
|-
| 2040 || Eradication || Study finds that achieving malaria eradication by this year would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. It would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Willis |first1=Derek W. |last2=Hamon |first2=Nick |title=Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality |doi=10.12688/gatesopenres.12843.2 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6266653/ |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Worldwide}} || || ||
|-
| 2050 || Eradication || Global malaria eradication could be achieved by this time, according to a coalition of 41 leading scientists, economists and health-policy experts writing in the Lancet.<ref>{{cite web |title=It's 'Ambitious' — But Possible — to Eradicate Malaria by 2050, According to a Landmark Report |url=https://time.com/5669743/malaria-eradication-report/ |website=time.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Could be Eradicated By 2050, Global Health Experts Say |url=https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2019/09/415341/malaria-could-be-eradicated-2050-global-health-experts-say |website=ucsf.edu |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Mahase |first1=Elisabeth |title=Malaria could be eradicated by 2050, say global experts |doi=10.1136/bmj.l5501 |url=https://www.bmj.com/content/366/bmj.l5501}}</ref> || {{w|Worldwide}} || || ||
|-
| 2050 || Epidemic || The {{w|World Health Organization}}’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.<ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Eradication Feasible by 2050, Says New Lancet Report |url=https://www.healthpolicy-watch.org/malaria-eradication-feasible-by-2050-says-new-lancet-commission-report/ |website=healthpolicy-watch.org |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Africa}} || || ||
|-
| 2051–2080 || Endemicity || Temperature estimates for this period speculate that up to 96.5% of the territory of {{w|Germany}} could experience a 4–5 month transmission window for malaria.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Schröder |first1=Winfried |last2=Schmidt |first2=Gunther |title=Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures |url=https://books.google.com.ar/books?id=5jG8BAAAQBAJ&pg=PR7&lpg=PR7&dq=%22malaria%22+%22in+2051..2100%22&source=bl&ots=HHZdeEiS61&sig=ACfU3U3Aj7paiqsbaApICPcqwZAkLxhcuQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjfn_r1qODlAhWJGbkGHZBNA1oQ6AEwDXoECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=%22malaria%22%20%22in%202051..2100%22&f=false}}</ref> || {{w|Germany}} || {{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} || || <2013
|-
| 2070 || Vector || Members of the ''{{w|Anopheles albitarsis}}'' complex are expected to become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in {{w|South America}} by this time.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Zorello Laporta |first1=Gabriel |last2=Linton |first2=Yvonne-Marie |last3=Wilkerson |first3=Richard C. |last4=Bergo |first4=Eduardo Sterlino |last5=Sayuri Nagaki |first5=Sandra |last6=Sant’Ana |first6=Denise Cristina |last7=Mureb Sallum |first7=Maria Anice |title=Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios |doi=10.1186/s13071-015-1038-4 |pmid=26283539 |url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4539674/}}</ref> || {{w|South America}} || Gabriel Zorello Laporta, Yvonne-Marie Linton, Richard C. Wilkerson, Eduardo Sterlino Bergo, Sandra Sayuri Nagaki, Denise Cristina Sant’Ana, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum || || August 2015
|-
| 2080 || || The number of people at risk of malaria around dams and associated reservoirs in {{w|Sub-Saharan Africa}} is expected to nearly double to about 25 million by this time.<ref>{{cite web |title=Dam-related malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa to almost double by 2080, UCI study finds |url=https://news.uci.edu/2016/09/08/uci-study-finds-malaria-risk-will-rise-around-dams-in-sub-saharan-africa/ |website=news.uci.edu |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Sub-Saharan Africa}} || CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land & Ecosystems || || ~September 2016
|-
|}
62,434
edits

Navigation menu