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Timeline of cognitive biases

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This is a '''timeline of FIXME{{w|cognitive bias}}es'''.
== Sample questions ==
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| 1753 || || {{w|Anthropomorphism}} is first attested, originally in reference to the {{w|heresy}} of applying a human form to the [[w:Christianity|Christian]] [[w:God the Father|God]].<ref>{{citation |date=1753 |title=Chambers's Cyclopædia, Supplement }}</ref>}}<ref name=oed>''Oxford English Dictionary'', 1st ed. "anthropomorphism, ''n.''" Oxford University Press (Oxford), 1885.</ref>
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| 1776–1799 || || The {{w|declinism}} belief is traced back to {{w|Edward Gibbon}}'s work,<ref name="Salon1">{{cite web|last1=Miller|first1=Laura|title=Culture is dead — again|url=https://www.salon.com/2015/06/14/culture_is_dead_%E2%80%94_again_its_the_end_of_civilization_as_we_know_it_and_maybe_we_feel_fine/|website=Salon|accessdate=17 April 2018|date=2015-06-14}}</ref> ''{{w|The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire}}'', published between 1776 and 1788, where Gibbon argues that Rome collapsed due to the gradual loss of {{w|civic virtue}} among its citizens,<ref>J.G.A. Pocock, "Between Machiavelli and Hume: Gibbon as Civic Humanist and Philosophical Historian," ''Daedalus'' 105:3 (1976), 153–169; and in '''[[#Further reading|Further reading]]:''' Pocock, ''EEG'', 303–304; ''FDF'', 304–306.</ref>
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| 1796 || || {{w|Gambler's fallacy}}. {{w|Pierre-Simon Laplace}} describes in ''A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities'' the ways in which men calculate their probability of having sons: "I have seen men, ardently desirous of having a son, who could learn only with anxiety of the births of boys in the month when they expected to become fathers. Imagining that the ratio of these births to those of girls ought to be the same at the end of each month, they judged that the boys already born would render more probable the births next of girls." The expectant fathers feared that if more sons were born in the surrounding community, then they themselves would be more likely to have a daughter. This essay by Laplace is regarded as one of the earliest descriptions of the fallacy.<ref name="BarronLeider2010">{{cite journal|last1=Barron|first1=Greg|last2=Leider|first2=Stephen|title=The role of experience in the Gambler's Fallacy|journal=Journal of Behavioral Decision Making|url=http://www-personal.umich.edu/~leider/Papers/Gamblers_Fallacy.pdf|date=13 October 2009}}</ref>
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| 1848 || || {{w|Bandwagon effect}} "The phrase "jump on the bandwagon" first appeared in American politics in 1848 when [[Dan Rice]], a famous and popular circus clown of the time, used his bandwagon and its music to gain attention for his political campaign appearances. As his campaign became more successful, other politicians strove for a seat on the bandwagon, hoping to be associated with his success. Later, during the time of [[William Jennings Bryan]]'s 1900 presidential campaign, bandwagons had become standard in campaigns,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.wordwizard.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=6642 |title=Bandwagon Effect |accessdate=2007-03-09}}</ref> and the phrase "jump on the bandwagon" was used as a derogatory term, implying that people were associating themselves with success without considering that with which they associated themselves."
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| 1906 || || "The first known use of {{w|bandwagon effect}} was in 1906"<ref>{{cite web |title=bandwagon effect |url=https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bandwagon%20effect |website=merriam-webster.com |accessdate=7 April 2020}}</ref>
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| 1913 || || The term "{{w|Monte Carlo fallacy}}" originates from the best known [[w:Gambler's fallacy#Monte Carlo Casino|example]] of the phenomenon, which occurs in the {{w|Monte Carlo Casino}}.<ref name= "monte_carlo">{{Cite web|url=http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20150127-why-we-gamble-like-monkeys|title=Why we gamble like monkeys|work=BBC.com|date=2015-01-02}}</ref>
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| 1920 || || "First coined back in 1920, the halo effect describes how our impression of a person forms a halo around our conception of their character." "The term was coined by psychologist Edwin Thorndike in 1920."<ref>{{cite web |title=This Cognitive Bias Explains Why Pretty People Make 12% More Money Than Everybody Else |url=https://www.businessinsider.com.au/halo-effect-money-beauty-bias-2014-11 |website=businessinsider.com |accessdate=6 April 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=What Is the Halo Effect? |url=https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/the-halo-effect |website=psychologytoday.com |accessdate=6 April 2020}}</ref>
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| 1930 || || The ''[[w:wiktionary:specious|specious]] present'' is further developed by {{w|William James}}.<ref name=andersen /> "James defined the specious present to be "the prototype of all conceived times... the short duration of which we are immediately and incessantly sensible". In "Scientific Thought" (1930), [[C. D. Broad]] further elaborated on the concept of the specious present and considered that the specious present may be considered as the temporal equivalent of a sensory datum.<ref name=andersen /> ||
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| 1945 || || {{w|Karl Duncker}} defines {{w|functional fixedness}} as being a "mental block against using an object in a new way that is required to solve a problem".<ref name=Duncker1945>Duncker, K. (1945). "On problem solving". ''[[Psychological Monographs]]'', 58:5 (Whole No. 270).</ref>
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| 1946 || || " In 1946, Berkson first illustrated the presence of a false correlation due to this last reason, which is known as Berkson's paradox and is one of the most famous paradox in probability and statistics."<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Batsidis |first1=Apostolos |last2=Tzavelas |first2=George |last3=Alexopoulos |first3=Panagiotis |title=Berkson's paradox and weighted distributions: An application to Alzheimer's disease |doi=10.1002/bimj.201900046 |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/bimj.201900046}}</ref>
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| 1954 || || The {{w|Social comparison theory}} is initially proposed by {{w|social psychologist}} {{w|Leon Festinger}}. It centers on the belief that there is a drive within individuals to gain accurate self-evaluations.<ref name="Festinger1954">{{cite journal | author = Festinger L | year = 1954 | title = A theory of social comparison processes | url = | journal = Human Relations | volume = 7 | issue = 2| pages = 117–140 | doi=10.1177/001872675400700202}}</ref>
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| 1956 || || The term "{{w|Barnum effect}}" is coined by psychologist {{w|Paul Meehl}} in his essay ''Wanted – A Good Cookbook'', because he relates the vague personality descriptions used in certain "pseudo-successful" psychological tests to those given by showman {{w|P. T. Barnum}}.<ref name=Meehl1956>{{cite journal|last1=Meehl |first1=Paul E. |title=Wanted – A Good Cookbook |journal=American Psychologist |date=1956 |volume=11 |issue=6 |pages=263–272 |doi=10.1037/h0044164 |df= }}</ref><ref name="Dutton1988">{{cite journal|last1=Dutton|first1=D. L.|title=The cold reading technique|journal=Experientia|date=1988|volume=44|issue=4|pages=326–332|doi=10.1007/BF01961271|url=http://denisdutton.com/cold_reading.htm|language=en|pmid=3360083}}</ref>
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| 1960 || || English psychhologist Peter Wason first describes the {{w|confirmation bias}}.<ref>{{cite web |title=The Curious Case of Confirmation Bias |url=https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/seeing-what-others-dont/201905/the-curious-case-confirmation-bias |website=psychologytoday.com |accessdate=7 April 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last1=Acks |first1=Alex |title=The Bubble of Confirmation Bias |url=https://books.google.com.ar/books?id=hPWCDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA9&dq=confirmation+bias%22+was+coined+by+English+psychologist+Peter+Wason&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiMnaen1dboAhVAIrkGHX4TAwEQ6AEIMTAB#v=onepage&q=confirmation%20bias%22%20was%20coined%20by%20English%20psychologist%20Peter%20Wason&f=false}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last1=Myers |first1=David G. |title=Psychology |url=https://books.google.com.ar/books?id=OqZZAAAAYAAJ&q=confirmation+bias%22+was+coined+by+English+psychologist+Peter+Wason&dq=confirmation+bias%22+was+coined+by+English+psychologist+Peter+Wason&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiMnaen1dboAhVAIrkGHX4TAwEQ6AEISzAE}}</ref>
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| 1960 || || "The classic example of subjects' {{w|congruence bias}} was discovered by {{w|Peter Cathcart Wason}}"
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| 1961 || || {{w|Ambiguity effect}} is first described by {{w|Daniel Ellsberg}}.<ref>{{cite book|last1=Borcherding|first1=Katrin|last2=Laričev|first2=Oleg Ivanovič|last3=Messick|first3=David M.|title=Contemporary Issues in Decision Making|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=W3l9AAAAMAAJ|year=1990|publisher=North-Holland|isbn=978-0-444-88618-7|page=50}}</ref>
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| 1967 || || "Chapman (1967) described a bias in the judgment of the frequency with which two events co-occur. This demonstration showed that the [[co-occurrence]] of paired stimuli resulted in participants overestimating the frequency of the pairings." ""{{w|Illusory correlation}}" was originally coined by Chapman and Chapman (1967) to describe people's tendencies to overestimate relationships between two groups when distinctive and unusual information is presented.<ref name="Chapman1967">{{cite journal|last1=Chapman|first1=L|title=Illusory correlation in observational report|journal=Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior|volume=6|issue=1|year=1967|pages=151–155|doi=10.1016/S0022-5371(67)80066-5}}</ref>"<ref>{{cite journal|last=Chapman|first=L.J|title=Illusory correlation in observational report|journal=Journal of Verbal Learning|year=1967|volume=6|pages=151–155|doi=10.1016/s0022-5371(67)80066-5}}</ref>|-| 1968 || || The {{w|conservatism (belief revision)}} bias is discussed by {{w|Ward Edwards}}.<ref name="edwards1">Edwards, Ward. "Conservatism in Human Information Processing (excerpted)". In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic and Amos Tversky. (1982). ''Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases''. New York: Cambridge University Press. {{ISBN|978-0521284141}} Original work published 1968.</ref>
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| 1969 || || Researchers confirm the {{w|Ben Franklin effect}}.<ref>{{cite web |title=To Become Super-Likable, Practice “The Ben Franklin Effect” |url=https://medium.com/swlh/practice-the-ben-franklin-effect-to-become-super-likable-23f98bf1ecdb |website=medium.com |accessdate=13 March 2020}}</ref>
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| 1971 || || Lichtenstein and Slovic study and experiment on the {{w|preference reversal}} inconsistency.<ref name="Atladóttir"/>
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| 1973 || || {{w|Hindsight bias}}. {{w|Baruch Fischhoff}} attends a seminar where {{w|Paul E. Meehl}} states an observation that clinicians often overestimate their ability to have foreseen the outcome of a particular case, as they claim to have known it all along.<ref name="Fischhoff 2007">{{cite journal | last1 = Fischhoff | first1 = B | year = 2007 | title = An early history of hindsight research | url = | journal = Social Cognition | volume = 25 | issue = | pages = 10–13 | doi = 10.1521/soco.2007.25.1.10 | citeseerx = 10.1.1.365.6826 }}</ref>
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| 1973 || || The {{w|illusion of validity}} bias is first described by {{w|Amos Tversky}} and {{w|Daniel Kahneman}} in their paper.
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| 1974 || || " One of the common heuristics used when making judgements is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, first described in 1974 (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). In this heuristic, when people estimate an unknown quantity (say, the length of the average American commute) they begin with an ‘anchor’ of information they do know (say, their own commute) and adjust until an acceptable value is reached. This anchor could be based on information given to a person (such as the advertised price of new car before bargaining) or it could be drawn from personal experience (the price a friend paid for a new car)."<ref name="One of the common">{{cite journal |last1=Ralph |first1=Kelcie |last2=Delbosc |first2=Alexa |title=I’m multimodal, aren’t you? How ego-centric anchoring biases experts’ perceptions of travel patterns |doi=10.1016/j.tra.2017.04.027 |url=One of the common heuristics used when making judgements is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, first described in 1974 (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). In this heuristic, when people estimate an unknown quantity (say, the length of the average American commute) they begin with an ‘anchor’ of information they do know (say, their own commute) and adjust until an acceptable value is reached. This anchor could be based on information given to a person (such as the advertised price of new car before bargaining) or it could be drawn from personal experience (the price a friend paid for a new car).}}</ref>
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| 1975 || || "In 1975, psychologist [[Stanley Smith Stevens]] proposed that the strength of a stimulus (e.g., the brightness of a light, the severity of a crime) is encoded neurally in a way that is independent of [[stimulus modality|modality]]. Kahneman and Frederick built on this idea, arguing that the target attribute and heuristic attribute could be unrelated."<ref name="revisited"/>
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| 1977 || || The {{w|illusory truth effect}} is first identified in a study at {{w|Villanova University}} and {{w|Temple University}}.<ref name="Hasher1977">{{cite journal|last1=Hasher |first1=Lynn |last2=Goldstein |first2=David |last3=Toppino |first3=Thomas |title=Frequency and the conference of referential validity |journal=Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior |date=1977 |volume=16 |issue=1 |pages=107–112 |doi=10.1016/S0022-5371(77)80012-1 |url=http://www.psych.utoronto.ca/users/hasher/PDF/Frequency%20and%20the%20conference%20Hasher%20et%20al%201977.pdf |url-status=bot: unknown |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20160515062305/http://www.psych.utoronto.ca/users/hasher/PDF/Frequency%20and%20the%20conference%20Hasher%20et%20al%201977.pdf |archivedate=2016-05-15 }}</ref><ref name="PLOS ONE">{{cite journal|title=People with Easier to Pronounce Names Promote Truthiness of Claims|journal=PLOS ONE|volume=9|issue=2|pages=e88671|date=September 6, 2014 |doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0088671|pmid=24586368|pmc=3935838|last1=Newman|first1=Eryn J.|last2=Sanson|first2=Mevagh|last3=Miller|first3=Emily K.|last4=Quigley-Mcbride|first4=Adele|last5=Foster|first5=Jeffrey L.|last6=Bernstein|first6=Daniel M.|last7=Garry|first7=Maryanne|bibcode=2014PLoSO...988671N}}</ref>
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| 1979 || || "In 1979, professor of psychology and author Charles G. Lord sought answers[1] as to whether we might overcome the {{w|Bacon principle}}, or whether humans are always held hostage to their initial beliefs even in the face of compelling and contradictory evidence."
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| 1985 || || The {{w|disposition effect}} anomaly is identified and named by Hersh Shefrin and Meir Statman. In their study, Shefrin and Statman note that "people dislike incurring losses much more than they enjoy making gains, and people are willing to gamble in the domain of losses." Consequently, "investors will hold onto stocks that have lost value...and will be eager to sell stocks that have risen in value." The researchers coined the term "disposition effect" to describe this tendency of holding on to losing stocks too long and to sell off well-performing stocks too readily. Shefrin colloquially described this as a "predisposition toward get-evenitis." John R. Nofsinger has called this sort of investment behavior as a product of the desire to avoid regret and seek pride.<ref name="Behavioural Finance">{{cite web|title=Disposition Effect|url=http://disposition-effect.behaviouralfinance.net/|website=Behavioural Finance|accessdate=11 January 2017|url-status=live|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20170324030730/http://disposition-effect.behaviouralfinance.net/|archivedate=24 March 2017}}</ref>
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| 1985 || || The {{w|hot-hand fallacy}} is first described in a paper by {{w|Amos Tversky}}, {{w|Thomas Gilovich}}, and Robert Vallone.
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| 1989 || || The term "{{w|curse of knowledge}}" is coined in a ''{{w|Journal of Political Economy}}'' article by economists {{w|Colin Camerer}}, {{w|George Loewenstein}}, and Martin Weber.
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| 1990 || || Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler publish a paper containing the first experimental test of the {{w|Endowment Effect}}.<ref name="Atladóttir">{{cite journal |last1=Atladóttir |first1=Kristín |title=The Endowment Effect and other biases in creative goods transactions |url=https://skemman.is/bitstream/1946/8659/1/20.The_Endowment_Effect_Kristin.pdf |issn=1670-8288}}</ref>
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| 1995 || || "Implicit bias was first described in a 1995 publication by Tony Greenwald and Mahzarin Banaji"<ref>{{cite web |title=PROJECT IMPLICIT LECTURES AND WORKSHOPS |url=https://www.projectimplicit.net/lectures.html |website=projectimplicit.net |accessdate=12 March 2020}}</ref>
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| 1996 || || {{w|Daniel Kahneman}} and {{w|Amos Tversky}} argue that cognitive biases have efficient practical implications for areas including clinical judgment, entrepreneurship, finance, and management.<ref>{{cite journal|author1=Kahneman, D. |author2=Tversky, A. |last-author-amp=yes |title=On the reality of cognitive illusions|journal=Psychological Review|year=1996|volume=103|issue=3|pages=582–591|doi=10.1037/0033-295X.103.3.582|pmid=8759048|url=http://psy.ucsd.edu/%7Emckenzie/KahnemanTversky1996PsychRev.pdf|citeseerx=10.1.1.174.5117 }}</ref><ref name="S.X. Zhang and J. Cueto 2015">{{cite journal |author1=S.X. Zhang |author2=J. Cueto |title=The Study of Bias in Entrepreneurship |journal= Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice |volume=41 |issue=3 |pages=419–454 |doi= 10.1111/etap.12212 |year=2015 }}</ref>
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| 1999 || || The psychological phenomenon of illusory superiority known as {{w|Dunning–Kruger effect}} is identified as a form of cognitive bias in Kruger and Dunning's 1999 study, ''Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments''.<ref name="Kruger"/>
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| 2002 || || "In a 2002 revision of the theory, Kahneman and {{w|Shane Frederick}} proposed {{w|attribute substitution}} as a process underlying these and other effects."<ref name="revisited">{{cite book |last= Kahneman |first=Daniel |first2=Shane |last2=Frederick |title=Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment |editor=Thomas Gilovich |editor2=Dale Griffin |editor3=Daniel Kahneman |publisher =Cambridge University Press |location=Cambridge |year=2002 |pages=49–81 |chapter=Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment |isbn=978-0-521-79679-8 |oclc=47364085}}</ref>
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| 2004 || || "One of the most common anchors is personal experience, which is the basis of ego-centric decision-making. Estimating the behaviors, attitudes and thoughts of other people is complex and effortful; anchoring and adjustment makes this process simpler by substituting one’s own perspective and adjusting until a reasonable estimate has been achieved (Epley et al., 2004). "<ref name="One of the common"/>
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| 2004 || || The concept of the {{w|distinction bias}} is advanced by Christopher K. Hsee and Jiao Zhang of the {{w|University of Chicago}} as an explanation for differences in evaluations of options between joint evaluation mode and separate evaluation mode.
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| 2006 || || "Overcoming Bias began in November ’06 as a group blog on the general theme of how to move our beliefs closer to reality, in the face of our natural biases such as overconfidence and wishful thinking, and our bias to believe we have corrected for such biases, when we have done no such thing."<ref>{{cite web |title=Overcoming Bias |url=http://www.overcomingbias.com/about |website=overcomingbias.com |accessdate=13 March 2020}}</ref>
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| 2009 || || The concept of {{w|denomination effect}} is proposed by Priya Raghubir, professor at the {{w|New York University Stern School of Business}}, and Joydeep Srivastava, professor at [[w:University of Maryland, College Park|University of Maryland]], in their paper.<ref name="NPR">{{cite news|title=Why We Spend Coins Faster Than Bills|url=https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=104063298|accessdate=7 April 2020|publisher=NPR|date=May 12, 2009}}</ref>
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| 2011 || || The {{w|IKEA effect}} is identified and named by {{w|Michael I. Norton}} of {{w|Harvard Business School}}, Daniel Mochon of {{w|Yale}}, and {{w|Dan Ariely}} of {{w|Duke University}}, who publish the results of three studies in this year.
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| 2011 || || "Cognitive Bias: The Google Effect. Also known as “digital amnesia”, the aptly named Google Effect describes our tendency to forget information that can be easily accessed online. First described in 2011 by Betsy Sparrow (Columbia University) and her colleagues, their paper described the results of several memory experiments involving technology."<ref name="thecustomer.net">{{cite web |title=Marketers Need To Be Aware Of Cognitive Bias |url=https://thecustomer.net/marketers-need-to-be-aware-of-cognitive-bias/?cn-reloaded=1 |website=thecustomer.net |accessdate=12 March 2020}}</ref>
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| 2013 || || The term “End of History Illusion” originates in a journal article by psychologists Jordi Quoidbach, [[w:Daniel Gilbert (psychologist)|Daniel Gilbert]], and {{w|Timothy Wilson}} detailing their research on the phenomenon and leveraging the phrase coined by [[w:The End of History and the Last Man|Francis Fukuyama's 1992 book of the same name]].<ref name="Quoidbach2013">{{cite journal |last1= Quoidbach |first1= Jordi |last2= Gilbert |first2= Daniel T. |authorlink2= Daniel Gilbert (psychologist) |last3= Wilson |first3= Timothy D. |authorlink3= Timothy Wilson |date= 2013-01-04 |title= The End of History Illusion |journal= [[Science (journal)|Science]] |volume= 339 |issue= 6115 |pages= 96–98 |doi= 10.1126/science.1229294 |pmid= 23288539 |url= http://www.wjh.harvard.edu/~dtg/Quoidbach%20et%20al%202013.pdf |quote= Young people, middle-aged people, and older people all believed they had changed a lot in the past but would change relatively little in the future. |url-status= bot: unknown |archiveurl= https://web.archive.org/web/20130113214951/http://www.wjh.harvard.edu/~dtg/Quoidbach%20et%20al%202013.pdf |archivedate= 2013-01-13 |bibcode= 2013Sci...339...96Q }}</ref>
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