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Timeline of cognitive biases

1,814 bytes added, 11:36, 22 September 2020
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! Time period !! Development summary !! More details
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| 1972 onward || Modern period || The notion of cognitive biases is introduced by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.
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| 1986 || || {{w|Bizarreness effect}} || McDaniel and Einstein argue that bizarreness intrinsically does not enhance memory in their paper.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Iaccino |first1=J. F. |last2=Sowa |first2=S. J. |date=February 1989 |title=Bizarre imagery in paired-associate learning: an effective mnemonic aid with mixed context, delayed testing, and self-paced conditions |volume=68 |issue=1 |pages=307–16 |pmid=2928063 |doi=10.2466/pms.1989.68.1.307 |journal=Percept mot Skills}}</ref> || "The {{w|bizarreness effect}} holds that items associated with bizarre sentences or phrases are more readily recalled than those associated with common sentences or phrases."<ref>{{cite web |title=Bizarreness effect |url=https://www.britannica.com/topic/bizarreness-effect |website=britannica.com |accessdate=16 July 2020}}</ref>
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| 1988 || Experiment || [[w:Information bias (psychology)|Information bias]] || In an experiment by Baron, Beattie and Hershey, subjects considered this diagnostic problem involving fictitious diseases.<ref name="Baron2006">{{cite book|last=Baron|first=Jonathan|title=Thinking and Deciding|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Fc5fQgAACAAJ|edition=4th|year=2006|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=978-0-521-68043-1|page=177|chapter=Information bias and the value of information}}</ref> ||"Information bias is any systematic difference from the truth that arises in the collection, recall, recording and handling of information in a study, including how missing data is dealt with."<ref>{{cite web |title=Information Bias |url=https://catalogofbias.org/biases/information-bias/#:~:text=Information%20bias%20is%20any%20systematic,recall%20bias%20and%20reporting%20bias. |website=catalogofbias.org |accessdate=22 September 2020}}</ref>
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| 1988 || || {{w|Reactive devaluation}} || The {{w|Reactive devaluation}} bias is proposed by {{w|Lee Ross}} and Constance Stillinger.<ref name=RossStillinger1988>Lee Ross, Constance A. Stillinger, "Psychological barriers to conflict resolution", Stanford Center on Conflict and Negotiation, Stanford University, 1988, [https://books.google.com/books?id=R2QrAQAAIAAJ&focus=searchwithinvolume&q=reactive p. 4]</ref> ||"Reactive Devaluation is tendency to value the proposal of someone we recognized as an antagonist as being less interesting than if it was made by someone else."<ref>{{cite web |title=Why we often tend to devalue proposals made by people who we consider to be adversaries |url=https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/reactive-devaluation/ |website=thedecisionlab.com |accessdate=22 September 2020}}</ref>
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| 1988 || || {{w|Status quo bias}} || {{w|Samuelson}} and {{w|Zeckhauser}} demonstrate {{w|status quo bias}} using a questionnaire in which subjects faced a series of decision problems, which were alternately framed to be with and without a pre-existing status quo position. Subjects tended to remain with the status quo when such a position was offered to them.<ref name=Samuelson>{{cite journal | last1 = Samuelson | first1 = W. | last2 = Zeckhauser | first2 = R. | year = 1988 | title = Status quo bias in decision making | url = | journal = Journal of Risk and Uncertainty | volume = 1 | issue = | pages = 7–59 | doi=10.1007/bf00055564}}</ref> ||"Status quo bias refers to the phenomenon of preferring that one's environment and situation remain as they already are."<ref>{{cite web |title=Status Quo Bias: What It Means and How It Affects Your Behavior |url=https://www.thoughtco.com/status-quo-bias-4172981 |website=thoughtco.com |accessdate=22 September 2020}}</ref>
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| 1989 || || {{w|Curse of knowledge}} || The term "{{w|curse of knowledge}}" is coined in a ''{{w|Journal of Political Economy}}'' article by economists {{w|Colin Camerer}}, {{w|George Loewenstein}}, and Martin Weber. || The curse of knowledge causes people to fail to account for the fact that others don't know the same things that they do.<ref>{{cite web |title=The Curse of Knowledge: What It Is and How to Account for It |url=https://effectiviology.com/curse-of-knowledge/ |website=effectiviology.com |accessdate=6 May 2020}}</ref>
| 1998 || || {{w|Less-is-better effect}} || "In a 1998 study, Hsee, a professor at the Graduate School of Business of {{w|The University of Chicago}}, discovered a less-is-better effect in three contexts: "(1) a person giving a $45 scarf (from scarves ranging from $5-$50) as a gift was perceived to be more generous than one giving a $55 coat (from coats ranging from $50-$500); (2) an overfilled ice cream serving with 7 oz of ice cream was valued more than an underfilled serving with 8 oz of ice cream; (3) a dinnerware set with 24 intact pieces was judged more favourably than one with 31 intact pieces (including the same 24) plus a few broken ones.""<ref name="hsee">{{cite journal|last=Hsee|first=Christopher K.|title=Less Is Better: When Low-value Options Are Valued More Highly than High-value Options|journal=Journal of Behavioral Decision Making|year=1998|volume=11|issue=2|pages=107–121|doi=10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199806)11:2<107::AID-BDM292>3.0.CO;2-Y |url=http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/christopher.hsee/vita/papers/LessIsBetter.pdf}}</ref> || "The {{w|less-is-better effect}} is the tendency to prefer the smaller or the lesser alternative when choosing individually, but not when evaluating together."<ref>{{cite web |title=Why we prefer the smaller or the lesser alternative |url=https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/less-is-better-effect/ |website=thedecisionlab.com |accessdate=7 May 2020}}</ref>
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| 1999 || Concept introduction || {{w|Dunning–Kruger effect}} || The psychological phenomenon of illusory superiority known as {{w|Dunning–Kruger effect}} is identified as a form of cognitive bias in Kruger and Dunning's 1999 study, ''Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments''.<ref name="Kruger">{{cite journal |last=Kruger |first=Justin |last2=Dunning |first2=David |date=1999 |title=Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments |journal={{w|Journal of Personality and Social Psychology}} |volume=77 |issue=6 |pages=1121–1134|doi=10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121 |pmid=10626367}}</ref> ||"The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people wrongly overestimate their knowledge or ability in a specific area."<ref>{{cite web |title=Dunning-Kruger Effect |url=https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/basics/dunning-kruger-effect |website=psychologytoday.com |accessdate=14 August 2020}}</ref>
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| 1999 || || {{w|Spotlight effect}} || The term "{{w|spotlight effect}}" is coined by {{w|Thomas Gilovich}} and Kenneth Savitsky.<ref name=":0">{{Cite journal |pmid = 10707330|year = 2000|last1 = Gilovich|first1 = T.|title = The spotlight effect in social judgment: An egocentric bias in estimates of the salience of one's own actions and appearance|journal = Journal of Personality and Social Psychology|volume = 78|issue = 2|pages = 211–222|last2 = Medvec|first2 = V. H.|last3 = Savitsky|first3 = K.|doi = 10.1037//0022-3514.78.2.211|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131030215508/http://www.psych.cornell.edu/sites/default/files/Gilo.Medvec.Sav_.pdf}}</ref> The phenomenon first appears in the world of psychology in the journal ''{{w|Current Directions in Psychological Science}}''. || "The {{w|spotlight effect}} refers to the tendency to think that more people notice something about you than they do."<ref>{{cite web |title=The Spotlight Effect |url=https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-big-questions/201111/the-spotlight-effect |website=psychologytoday.com |accessdate=14 August 2020}}</ref>
| 2004 || || || "One of the most common anchors is personal experience, which is the basis of ego-centric decision-making. Estimating the behaviors, attitudes and thoughts of other people is complex and effortful; anchoring and adjustment makes this process simpler by substituting one’s own perspective and adjusting until a reasonable estimate has been achieved (Epley et al., 2004). "<ref name="One of the common"/> ||
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| 2004 || || {{w|Distinction bias}} || The concept of the {{w|distinction bias}} is advanced by Christopher K. Hsee and Jiao Zhang of the {{w|University of Chicago}} as an explanation for differences in evaluations of options between joint evaluation mode and separate evaluation mode. <ref>{{cite journal |last1=Hsee |first1=Christopher K. |last2=Zhang |first2=Jiao |title=General Evaluability Theory |doi=10.1177/1745691610374586 |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691610374586}}</ref> || {{w|Distinction bias}} is "an explanation for why people evaluate objects differently when evaluating them jointly, as opposed to separately."<ref>{{cite web |title=Why we tend to view two options as more distinctive when evaluating them simultaneously then separately. |url=https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/distinction-bias/ |website=thedecisionlab.com |accessdate=16 July 2020}}</ref>
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| 2006 || || || Overcoming Bias launches as a group blog on the "general theme of how to move our beliefs closer to reality, in the face of our natural biases such as overconfidence and wishful thinking, and our bias to believe we have corrected for such biases, when we have done no such thing."<ref>{{cite web |title=Overcoming Bias |url=http://www.overcomingbias.com/about |website=overcomingbias.com |accessdate=13 March 2020}}</ref> ||
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