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Timeline of prediction markets

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This is a '''timeline of {{W|prediction markets}}'''. Prediction markets are a forecasting mechanism able to handle efficiently the dynamic aggregation of dispersed information among various agents. They can be thought of as betting markets structured to elicit and aggregate beliefs of future events. Prediction markets are also sometimes known under the names: information markets, electronic markets, decision markets, virtual markets, election stock markets, idea futures, artificial markets, political stock markets, game market. [[File:Figure_1_of_Rhode,_Paul;_Strumpf,_Koleman_(2013).png|600px]]<ref name=":0" /> [[File:Figure_8_of_Tziralis,_Georgios;_Tatsiopoulos,_Ilias_(2007).png|600px]]<ref name=":1">{{Cite journal|last=Horn|first=Christian Franz|last2=Ivens|first2=Bjoern Sven|last3=Ohneberg|first3=Michael|last4=Brem|first4=Alexander|date=2014-09-23|title=Prediction Markets – A literature review 2014|url=http://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/889|journal=The Journal of Prediction Markets|language=en|volume=8|issue=2|pages=89–126|doi=10.5750/jpm.v8i2.889}}</ref>
== Big picture ==
 
{| class="wikitable"
!Time period
|-
|Up to the 16th century
|"Wagering The first written records of political betting date from 1503 (wagering on the papal election was an old practice by 1503, but the Venetian ambassadors' reports in Sanuto, I Diarii, are the first sources on the odds)."<ref>{{Citation|last=Baumgartner|first=Frederic J.|title=The Creation of the Conclave|date=2003|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-11014-5_3|work=Behind Locked Doors|pages=39–58|publisher=Palgrave Macmillan US|isbn=9781403969620|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|16th & 17th century
|Betting was prevalent, in In Italian city-states, on betting is prevalent regarding the choice of government officials and on papal selection.<refname=":0">{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Walker|first=J.|date=1999-02-01|title=GAMBLING AND VENETIAN NOBLEMEN c. 1500-1700|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/past/162.1.28|journal=Past & Present|volume=162|issue=1|pages=28–69|doi=10.1093/past/162.1.28|issn=0031-2746}}</ref>
|-
|18th to early 20th century
|Various There are various instances of political betting on the timing and winning party of Parliamentary elections in Britain, on the outcomes of local and national elections in Canada, and on Presidential and Congressional winners in the United States.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref>
|-
|}
== Full timeline ==
 
{| class="sortable wikitable"
!Year
!Month and dateEvent type
!Event
|-
|1945
|Publication
|The economist {{W|Friedrich Hayek}} publishes the essay "{{W|The Use of Knowledge in Society}}" arguing that information is decentralized within an economy and how that contributes to efficiency. The essay initiates a wider interest for information in economics.<ref>{{Citation|last=Hayek|first=Friedrich|title=The use of knowledge in society|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511817410.007|work=The economic nature of the firm|pages=63–68|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=9780511817410|access-date=2018-09-30}}</ref> (In 2011, "The Use of Knowledge in Society" was selected as one of the top 20 articles published in the American Economic Review during its first 100 years.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Arrow|first=Kenneth J|last2=Bernheim|first2=B. Douglas|last3=Feldstein|first3=Martin S|last4=McFadden|first4=Daniel L|last5=Poterba|first5=James M|last6=Solow|first6=Robert M|date=February 2011|title=100 Years of theAmerican Economic Review: The Top 20 Articles|url=https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|journal=American Economic Review|language=en|volume=101|issue=1|pages=1–8|doi=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|issn=0002-8282|via=}}</ref>)
|-
|1961
|Legal|The ''{{W|Federal Wire Act'' }} becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire {{W|wired communication facility }} for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-75/pdf/STATUTE-75-Pg491.pdf|title=Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>|-|1975|Fiction|[[wikipedia:John Brunner (novelist)|John Brunner]] publishes ''{{W|The Shockwave Rider}}'', a science fiction story involving a prediction market named the Delphi pool.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL24612647M/The_shockwave_rider|title=The shockwave rider|last=Brunner|first=John|date=1975|publisher=Harper & Row|edition=Book club ed.|location=New York}}</ref>
|-
|1988
|Launch|{{W|Iowa Political Stock Market is introduced }}, a non-profit prediction market platform for educational and research purposes, launches during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|1990
|Corporate|At {{W|Project Xanadu}}, the first hypertext project, {{W|Robin Hanson used }} uses the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|1999
|Performance|{{W|Hollywood Stock Exchange}}'s NominOptions predicted predicts 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194335/https://www.hsx.com/about/pr_oscar_nom_2006.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2000
|Launch|Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start {{W|Intrade.com}}, a prediction market, charging a monthly feeservice operating from the Republic of Ireland.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130601090502/https://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Sport-in-the-City|title=Sport in the City|date=2013-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2000
|Launch|{{W|NewsFutures}}, a play-money prediction market, is foundedfound by Émile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20001216131100/http://ps.newsfutures.com:80/index.html|title=NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info|date=2000-12-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2001
|Research|{{W|DARPA }} launches a call for proposal for the development of decision markets, later known as FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20020111195139/http://www.acq.osd.mil/sadbu/sbir/solicitations/sbir012/darpa012.htm|title=POINTS OF CONTACT|date=2002-01-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2001
|Launch|Long Bets Foundation was foundedis found as a 501(c)(3) public education nonprofit foundation by {{W|The Long Now Foundation}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021001000000*/http://longbets.org/about/|title=Wayback Machine|date=2002-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2002
|Performance|Yahoo started experimenting with Chen and [[wikipedia:Charles Plott|Plott]] (2002) ran eight prediction markets internallywithin Hewlett-Packard to forecast important variables like quarterly printer sales. These results showed that the markets were more accurate than the company’s official forecasts.<ref>{{Cite webCitation|last=Chen|first=Kay-Yut|title=Chapter 40 Markets and Information Aggregation Mechanisms|date=2008|url=httpshttp://webdx.archivedoi.org/web/20180622171957/https://www.cftc10.gov1016/sites/default/files/idc/groups/public/@lrfederalregister/documents/frcomment/08s1574-0722(07)00040-004c029.pdf6|work=Handbook of Experimental Economics Results|pages=344–352|titlepublisher=Wayback MachineElsevier|dateisbn=2018-06-229780444826428|access-date=2018-09-0423|last2=Plott|first2=Charles R.}}</ref>
|-
|20032002|Corporate|Two US senators called for the immediate end of FutureMAPYahoo starts experimenting with prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/2003081119511620180622171957/httphttps://wydenwww.senatecftc.gov/mediasites/default/files/idc/2003groups/07282003_terrormarketpublic/@lrfederalregister/documents/frcomment/08-004c029.htmlpdf|title=Senator Ron WydenWayback Machine|date=20032018-0806-1122|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2003
|Discontinuation|Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811195116/http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html|title=Senator Ron Wyden|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> DARPA's FutureMAP program is terminatedterminates the next day.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811045100/http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/futuremap-darpa.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2004
|Publication|{{W|James Surowiecki published }} publishes the book "{{W|The Wisdom of Crowds}}", championing the idea of prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL9414725M/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds|title=The Wisdom of Crowds|last=Surowiecki|first=James|date=2004-06-03|publisher=Little, Brown|isbn=9780316861731}}</ref>
|-
|2004
|Launch|{{W|HedgeStreet was founded and approved by }} is found with the approval of the {{W|Commodity Futures Trading Commission}} (CFTC).<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194606/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/files/anr/anr2004.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2005
|Research|An article in ''[[wikipedia:Nature stated (journal)|Nature]]'' states how {{W|Eli Lilly and Company }} used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=|first=|date=2005-11-17|title=Wisdom of the crowd|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/438281a|journal=Nature|volume=438|issue=7066|pages=281–281|doi=10.1038/438281a|issn=0028-0836|via=}}</ref>
|-
|2005
|Corporate|Google announced announces that it has been using prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051001072152/https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html|title=Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work|date=2005-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>|-|2006|Launch|XFuture, a Chinese-language prediction market exchange, is launched collaboratively by the Center for Prediction Markets at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University and xPredict Ltd.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://nccupm.wordpress.com/the-exchange-of-future-events/|title=The Exchange of Future Events|date=2010-05-07|work=政治大學預測市場研究中心|access-date=2018-09-23|language=zh-TW}}</ref>
|-
|2006
|Legal|The ''{{W|Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act'' }} comes into effect in the US, prohibiting "gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the Internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100601165540/https://www.ots.treas.gov/_files/422372.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2010-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2006
|Corporate|Inkling, a company offering prediction markets tools for businesses, is foundedfound.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/inkling#section-overview|title=Inkling {{!}} Crunchbase|website=Crunchbase|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2006
|Corporate|The Ford Motor Company started starts using a prediction market internally.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Montgomery|first=Thomas A.|last2=Stieg|first2=Paul M.|last3=Cavaretta|first3=Michael J.|last4=Moraal|first4=Paul E.|date=2013-08-11|title=Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts|url=http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2487575.2488212|publisher=ACM|pages=1384–1392|doi=10.1145/2487575.2488212|isbn=9781450321747}}</ref>
|-
|2007
|Publication|First issue of the ''Journal of Prediction Markets'', edited by with Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School, is issuedas editor.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130308150634/http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/issue/view/49|title=Vol 1, No 1 (2007)|date=2013-03-08|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2007
|Corporate|Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, tasked with the goals of promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170429103454/http://www.cometoknow.com/prediction-market-industry-association|title=PMIA – Come to Know|date=2017-04-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>|-|2008|Publication|A ''[[wikipedia:The New York Times|New York Times]]'' article discusses the use of prediction markets at InterContinental Hotels, Best Buy, Cisco Systems, GE Healthcare, General Mills, ArcelorMittal, Swisscom, and others. <ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/09/technology/techspecial/09predict.html|title=Betting to Improve the Odds|last=Lohr|first=Steve|access-date=2018-09-23|language=en}}</ref>|-|2008|Launch|{{W|iPredict}} launches with the approval of the {{W|Securities Commission of New Zealand}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110407211908/http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2008/0285/latest/whole.html|title=Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008 (SR 2008/285) – New Zealand Legislation|date=2011-04-07|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|Launch|iPredict Smarkets, a person-to-person betting exchange platform, launches and is approved by the New Zealand Securities Commission.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/2011040721190820080402232630/http://www.legislationblog.govtsmarkets.nzcom/regulationabout/public/2008/0285/latest/whole.html|title=Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008 (SR 2008/285) – New Zealand LegislationAbout « Smarkets Blog|date=20112008-04-0702|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|Legal|SmarketsThe CFTC solicits comments on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, a betting exchangeprediction, launchesor information markets.<ref>{{Cite webnews|url=https://webwww.archivefederalregister.orggov/webdocuments/200804022326302008/http:05/07/blog.smarkets.com/aboutE8-9981/concept-release-on-the-appropriate-regulatory-treatment-of-event-contracts|title=About « Smarkets BlogConcept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts|date=2008-0405-0207|work=Federal Register|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|Publication|The CFTC A joint statement by 22 lead economists and scientists is soliciting comment published in Science on the appropriate regulatory treatment promise of financial agreements offered by prediction markets, demanding that the CFTC should "establish safe-harbor rules for selected small-stakes markets commonly referred " and that "Congress should support the CFTC’s efforts to as event, develop prediction, or information markets".<ref>{{Cite newsjournal|last=Arrow|first=K. J.|last2=Forsythe|first2=R.|last3=Gorham|first3=M.|last4=Hahn|first4=R.|last5=Hanson|first5=R.|last6=Ledyard|first6=J. O.|last7=Levmore|first7=S.|last8=Litan|first8=R.|last9=Milgrom|first9=P.|date=2008-05-16|title=ECONOMICS: The Promise of Prediction Markets|url=httpshttp://wwwdx.federalregisterdoi.govorg/documents10.1126/2008science.1157679|journal=Science|volume=320|issue=5878|pages=877–878|doi=10.1126/05/07/E8science.1157679|issn=0036-99818075}}</concept-release-onref>|-|2009|Fiction|{{W|Eliezer Yudkowsky}} publishes thescience fiction story ''Three Worlds Collide'' featuring a civilization using prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HawFh7RvDM4RyoJ2d/three-appropriate-regulatoryworlds-treatmentcollide-of0-event-contracts8|title=Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event ContractsThree Worlds Collide|last=Yudkowsky|first=Eliezer|date=20082009|website=LessWrong|archive-05url=|archive-07date=|workdead-url=Federal Register|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2010
|Corporate|NewsFutures becomes Lumenogic , a company offering collective intelligence services to firms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100703052803/http://www.lumenogic.com:80/www/newsfutures.html|title=Lumenogic: Collective Intelligence Solutions for Senior Leadership|date=2010-07-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2010
|Research|{{W|IARPA}}'s Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches, seeking innovation in allocation of probabilistic jugments, conditional probabilities for contingent events, mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120916135741/https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title=Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities|date=2012-09-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2011
|Launch
|DAGGRE launches as part of IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120127194416/http://daggre.org:80/info/|title=DAGGRE|date=2012-01-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2011
|Legal|The US Department of Justice released releases a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140815211239/https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/2011/09/31/state-lotteries-opinion.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2014-08-15|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|Research|A systematic review of 155 articles on prediction markets published between 1990 and 2006 predicting that research on prediction on prediction markets will significantly increase, that there is a need to standardize the terminogy of the field, and that a dissemiination of prediction markets mechanism could lead to an expansion of relevant research and applications.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Tziralis|first=Georgios|last2=Tatsiopoulos|first2=Ilias|date=2007|title=Prediction markets: an information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/wremsd.2007.014044|journal=World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development|volume=3|issue=3/4|pages=251|doi=10.1504/wremsd.2007.014044|issn=1746-0573}}</ref>|-|2012|Legal
|CFTC charges Intrade and TEN with violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and filing false forms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121202055455/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6423-12|title=CFTC Charges Ireland-based “Prediction Market” Proprietors Intrade and TEN with Violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and Filing False Forms with the CFTC|date=2012-12-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|Launch|Bitbet.us becomes availableDavid Pennock, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, announces PredictWiseQ, an implementation of combinatorial prediction market design.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/2014040910064220121020123214/httpshttp://bitcointalkblog.oddhead.orgcom/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/index.php?topic=120757.0|title=Bitcoin Affiliate Programs.Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog|date=20142012-0410-0920|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|20122013|Research|PredictWiseQ is announcedA meta-analysis indicates that "Various studies highlight that prediction markets are a reliable forecasting tool, which can be easily applied in larger settings and are applicable for short-run and long-run predictions", implementing combinatorial that "prediction market designmarkets possess certain advantages like immediate feedback, transparency over all alternatives and the generation of fun during consensus building through game mechanics" over incentivizing experts directly, but that research is still at the beginning.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://webieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/6550607|title=Accessing Knowledge with a Game -- A Meta-analysis of Prediction Markets - IEEE Conference Publication|website=ieeexplore.archiveieee.org|language=en-US|access-date=2018-09-30}}</ref>|-|2013|Legal|CFTC charges “Prediction Market” Banc de Binary Ltd, an Israeli firm, with violating the CFTC’s off-exchange options trading Ban and operating as an unregistered Futures Commission Merchant.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://20121020123214www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6602-13|title=CFTC Charges “Prediction Market” Proprietor Banc de Binary with Violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and Operating as an Unregistered Futures Commission Merchant {{!}} U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION|website=www.cftc.gov|language=en|access-date=2018-09-23}}</httpref>|-|2013|Publication|A blog post discusses using prediction markets to fund public goods.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://blogideophilus.oddheadwordpress.com/20122013/10/0620/predictwiseqbetting-against-public-goods-that-you-want/|title=Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead BlogBetting against public goods that you want|date=20122013-10-20|work=Ideophilus|access-date=2018-09-23|language=en-US}}</ref>|-|2013|Launch|CrowdMed, a company aiming to identify illnesses that have gone without a diagnosis using prediction markets, is part of the {{W|Y Combinator}} winter 2013 class and launches its public beta at {{W|TEDMED}} 2013 in Washington, D.C.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://techcrunch.com/2013/04/16/crowdmed/|title=With $1.1 Million In Funding, YC-Backed CrowdMed Launches To Crowdsource Medical Diagnoses|work=TechCrunch|access-date=2018-09-23|language=en-US}}</ref>
|-
|2013
|Launch
|First commit on TruthCoin (later called Hivemind), a Bitcoin-based decentralized prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://github.com/psztorc/Truthcoin/commit/d54e6216b28674e79f53b5d99dc226a896120eb3|title=First Commit · psztorc/Truthcoin@d54e621|website=GitHub|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2013
|Performance|{{W|The Good Judgement Judgment Project }} wins IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131127133205/https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/|title=Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)|date=2013-11-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>|-|2013|Performance|(Snowberg, Wolfers, Zitzewitz 2013) show that the track record of prediction markets out-perform both professional forecasters and polls in a variety of statistical tests.<ref>{{Citation|last=Snowberg|first=Erik|title=Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting|date=2013|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-444-53683-9.00011-6|work=Handbook of Economic Forecasting|pages=657–687|publisher=Elsevier|isbn=9780444536839|access-date=2018-09-23|last2=Wolfers|first2=Justin|last3=Zitzewitz|first3=Eric}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|Publication|CFTC provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University An article by Paul Sztorc of Truthcoin discusses applications of prediction markets outside of Wellingtonprediction, such as lie detection, NZwhistleblowing, to operate a notstabilizing crypto-for-profit Market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to U.S. personsassets, policy advice, etc.<ref>{{Cite web|url=httpshttp://web.archivebitcoinhivemind.org/web/20141103175945/https:com/papers/www.cftc3_PM_Applications.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7047-14pdf|title=CFTC Staff Provides NoExtra-Action Relief for Victoria University Predictive Applications of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. PersonsPrediction Markets|last=Sztorc|first=Paul|date=2014|website=|archive-url=|archive-11date=|dead-03url=|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|Research|Microsoft launches A systematic review of 316 articles on prediction markets from 2007 to 2013 concluding that "the fundamentals of the concept have been sufficiently investigated in the academic research and thus the overall forecasting performance of Prediction LabMarkets is currently at the center of interest."<ref>{{Cite web|urlname=https://web.archive.org/web/20150919035714/http":1" //www.predictwise.com/node/3765|title=Why Microsoft Prediction Lab {{!}} PredictWise|date=2015-09-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|Legal|DAGGRE stops. SciCast is announced as part CFTC provides {{W|No-Action Relief}} for Victoria University of IARPA's ForeST programWellington, New Zealand, to operate a not-for-profit market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to US persons.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/2014050301144220141103175945/httphttps://www.overcomingbiascftc.comgov/2014PressRoom/01PressReleases/announcingscicast.htmlpr7047-14|title=Overcoming Bias : Announcing: SciCastCFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons|date=2014-0511-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|Launch|FairlayMicrosoft launches Prediction Lab, a Bitcoinproduct blending non-based representative polling and prediction market, is launchedgames.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/2014040903412020150919035714/httpshttp://bitcointalkwww.predictwise.orgcom/node/index.php?topic=433086.03765|title=FAIRLAY.COM - New Bitcoin Why Microsoft Prediction MarketLab {{!}} PredictWise|date=20142015-0409-0919|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|Discontinuation|DAGGRE stops. Robin Hanson announces SciCast, a combinatorial prediction markets for aggregating expertise, as part of IARPA's ForeST program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140503011442/http://www.overcomingbias.com/2014/01/announcingscicast.html|title=Overcoming Bias : Announcing: SciCast|date=2014-05-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>|-|2014|Launch|Launch of Fairlay, a Bitcoin-based prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140409034120/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=433086.0|title=FAIRLAY.COM - New Bitcoin Prediction Market|date=2014-04-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>|-|2014|Launch
|Lumenogic (previously NewsFutures) launches Hypermind, a play-money prediction market, leveraging techniques built for the Good Judgment Project.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831182258/https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2015/02/Servan-Schreiber-and-Atanasov-CI-2015-Abstract.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-31|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|Research|A Publication of a paper is published on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research, in the {{W|Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}}.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Dreber|first=Anna|last2=Pfeiffer|first2=Thomas|last3=Almenberg|first3=Johan|last4=Isaksson|first4=Siri|last5=Wilson|first5=Brad|last6=Chen|first6=Yiling|last7=Nosek|first7=Brian A.|last8=Johannesson|first8=Magnus|date=2015-12-15|title=Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research|url=http://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=112|issue=50|pages=15343–15347|doi=10.1073/pnas.1516179112|issn=0027-8424|pmc=4687569|pmid=26553988}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|Launch|Launch of Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions, was founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151224181609/https://www.metaculus.com|title=Metaculus|date=2015-12-24|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|Publication|SciCast is suspended after losing IARPA fundingreleases its final report.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/2015060901315320160124094102/http://blog.scicast.org/2015download/06/08/so-long-and-thanksscicast-forfinal-allreport-the-fishpublic/|title=So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish! SciCast Final Report (Public) {{!}} The Official SciCast Blog|date=20152016-0601-0924|access-date=2018-09-0423}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|Discontinuation|Forecast Foundation OU, parent Suspension of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on Ethereum, is registered in EstoniaSciCast after losing IARPA funding.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/2018083018093620150609013153/httpshttp://wwwblog.infoproffscicast.comorg/en2015/companies06/regcard08/EST7851930so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-fish/12894333|title=Wayback MachineSo Long, and Thanks for All the Fish! {{!}} The Official SciCast Blog|date=20182015-0806-3009|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|Launch|GnosisJack Peterson and Joey Krug register the Forecast Foundation OU in Estonia, a the parent organization of the decentralized prediction market [[wikipedia:Augur (software)|Augur]] based on {{W|Ethereum, was launched}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830180936/https://www.redditinfoproff.com/ren/ethereumcompanies/commentsregcard/3i9i8m/groupgnosis_prediction_market_is_live_trading_hasEST7851930/12894333|title=r/ethereum - Groupgnosis Prediction Market is Live; Trading has Begun.Wayback Machine|websitedate=reddit|language=en2018-08-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|Launch|A Martin Köppelmann announces Gnosis, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3i9i8m/groupgnosis_prediction_market_is_live_trading_has/|title=r/ethereum - Groupgnosis Prediction Market is Live; Trading has Begun.|website=reddit|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>|-|2015|Corporate|Publication of a paper is published on the use of internal prediction markets at Google, Ford, and a pseudonymous materials & energy conglomerate.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Cowgill|first=Bo|last2=Zitzewitz|first2=Eric|date=2015-04-02|title=Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X|url=https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv014|journal=The Review of Economic Studies|language=en|volume=82|issue=4|pages=1309–1341|doi=10.1093/restud/rdv014|issn=0034-6527}}</ref>
|-
|2016
|Discontinuation
|iPredict closes after Associate Justice Minister Simon Bridges refused to grant it an exemption from the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act, declaring that it was a "legitimate money laundering risk" because of the lack of customer due diligence.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170929140157/http://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=message|title=iPredict Message - iPredict|date=2017-09-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2016
|Discontinuation
|Microsoft silently phases out Prediction Lab.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://prediction.microsoft.com/|title=Wayback Machine|website=web.archive.org|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2017
|Launch|Founding and {{W|initial coin offering}} of STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market, was founded and ICOed.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802121404/https://www.newsbtc.com/2017/08/02/stox-prediction-platforms-ico-begins-now/|title=STOX – The Prediction Platform’s ICO Begins Now! - NEWSBTC|date=2017-08-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2017
|Launch|The {{W|Winton Group }} (British investment management firm) starts climatepredictionmarket.com, a prediction market for climate prediction.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180130145737/http://www.pionline.com/article/20171030/PRINT/171039996/winton-provides-market-for-those-who-want-to-wager-on-the-weather|title=Winton provides market for those who want to wager on the weather - Pensions & Investments|date=2018-01-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018
|Legal|The Federal Court in District of Columbia orders Intrade and TEN to pay $3 million Civil Monetary Penalty for illegally trading binary options and violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180801212926/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7758-18|title=Federal Court in District of Columbia Orders “Prediction Market” Companies to Pay $3 Million Civil Monetary Penalty for Illegally Trading Binary Options and Violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order {{!}} U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION|date=2018-08-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018
|Launch|Official launch of [[wikipedia:Augur(software)|Augur]], a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum, officially launched.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180710084918/https://medium.com/@AugurProject/augur-launches-794fa7f88c6a|title=Augur Launches – Augur – Medium|date=2018-07-10|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018
|Launch|Launch of Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news, launched.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831180707/https://www.tgdaily.com/games-and-entertainment/the-fame-project-is-letting-people-bet-on-the-future#bypass-sw|title=The Fame Project is Letting People Bet on the Future|work=TGDaily|access-date=2018-09-04|language=en}}</ref>|-|2019|Publication|The book ''Foundations of Prediction Markets: Modeling, Simulation, and Empirical Evidence'' is planned to be published in April 2019.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://www.amazon.ca/Foundations-Prediction-Markets-Simulation-Empirical/dp/4431552294/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1538330987&sr=1-1&keywords=9784431552291|title=Foundations of Prediction Markets: Modeling, Simulation, and Empirical Evidence|last=Chen|first=Shu-Heng|last2=Tung|first2=Chen-Yuan|last3=Yeh|first3=Jason|last4=Chie|first4=Bin-Tzong|last5=Tai|first5=Chung-Ching|last6=Lin|first6=Hung-Wen|date=2019-04-13|publisher=Springer|isbn=9784431552291|edition=1st ed. 2019 edition|location=Place of publication not identified|language=English}}</ref>
|}
== Meta information on the timeline ==
 The initial version of the timeline was written by [[User:Orpheus Lummis|Orpheus_LummisOrpheus Lummis]].
{{funding info}} is available.
Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:
* TBD [https://www.reddit.com/r/TimelinesWiki/comments/9m6s0n/timeline_of_prediction_markets/ reddit]* TBD [https://www.facebook.com/groups/TimelinesWiki/permalink/2164760973764256/ Facebook]* by emailing [mailto:o@orpheuslummis.com info o@orpheuslummis.cominfo]
=== Timeline update strategy ===
== See also ==
TBD == External links == TBD* [[Timeline of opinion polling and survey research]]
== References ==
{{Reflist|30em}}

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