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This is a '''timeline of {{W|prediction markets}}'''.
Prediction markets are a forecasting mechanism able to handle efficiently the dynamic aggregation of dispersed information among various agents. They can be thought of as betting markets structured to elicit and aggregate beliefs of future events.
Prediction markets are also sometimes known under the names: information markets, electronic markets, decision markets, virtual markets, election stock markets, idea futures, artificial markets, political stock markets, game market.
[[File:Figure_1_of_Rhode,_Paul;_Strumpf,_Koleman_(2013).png|600px]]<ref name=":0" />
[[File:Figure_8_of_Tziralis,_Georgios;_Tatsiopoulos,_Ilias_(2007).png|600px]]<ref name=":1">{{Cite journal|last=Horn|first=Christian Franz|last2=Ivens|first2=Bjoern Sven|last3=Ohneberg|first3=Michael|last4=Brem|first4=Alexander|date=2014-09-23|title=Prediction Markets – A literature review 2014|url=http://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/889|journal=The Journal of Prediction Markets|language=en|volume=8|issue=2|pages=89–126|doi=10.5750/jpm.v8i2.889}}</ref>
== Big picture ==
|-
|Up to the 16th century
|"Wagering The first written records of political betting date from 1503 (wagering on the papal election was an old practice by 1503, but the Venetian ambassadors' reports in Sanuto, I Diarii, are the first sources on the odds)."<ref>{{Citation|last=Baumgartner|first=Frederic J.|title=The Creation of the Conclave|date=2003|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-11014-5_3|work=Behind Locked Doors|pages=39–58|publisher=Palgrave Macmillan US|isbn=9781403969620|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|16th & 17th century
|In Italian city-states, betting is prevalent regarding the choice of government officials and on papal selection.<refname=":0">{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Walker|first=J.|date=1999-02-01|title=GAMBLING AND VENETIAN NOBLEMEN c. 1500-1700|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/past/162.1.28|journal=Past & Present|volume=162|issue=1|pages=28–69|doi=10.1093/past/162.1.28|issn=0031-2746}}</ref>
|-
|18th to early 20th century
|Various There are various instances of political betting on the timing and winning party of Parliamentary elections in Britain, on the outcomes of local and national elections in Canada, and on Presidential and Congressional winners in the United States.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref>
|-
|}
!Event type
!Event
|-
|1945
|Publication
|The economist {{W|Friedrich Hayek}} publishes the essay "{{W|The Use of Knowledge in Society}}" arguing that information is decentralized within an economy and how that contributes to efficiency. The essay initiates a wider interest for information in economics.<ref>{{Citation|last=Hayek|first=Friedrich|title=The use of knowledge in society|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511817410.007|work=The economic nature of the firm|pages=63–68|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=9780511817410|access-date=2018-09-30}}</ref> (In 2011, "The Use of Knowledge in Society" was selected as one of the top 20 articles published in the American Economic Review during its first 100 years.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Arrow|first=Kenneth J|last2=Bernheim|first2=B. Douglas|last3=Feldstein|first3=Martin S|last4=McFadden|first4=Daniel L|last5=Poterba|first5=James M|last6=Solow|first6=Robert M|date=February 2011|title=100 Years of theAmerican Economic Review: The Top 20 Articles|url=https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|journal=American Economic Review|language=en|volume=101|issue=1|pages=1–8|doi=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|issn=0002-8282|via=}}</ref>)
|-
|1961
|Legal
|The {{W|Federal Wire Act}} becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire {{W|wired communication facility }} for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-75/pdf/STATUTE-75-Pg491.pdf|title=Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|1975
|Fiction
|[[wikipedia:John Brunner (novelist)|John Brunner]] publishes ''{{W|The Shockwave Rider}}'', a science fiction story involving a prediction market named the Delphi pool.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL24612647M/The_shockwave_rider|title=The shockwave rider|last=Brunner|first=John|date=1975|publisher=Harper & Row|edition=Book club ed.|location=New York}}</ref>
|-
|1988
|Launch
|{{W|Iowa Political Stock Market}} , a non-profit prediction market platform for educational and research purposes, launches during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|1990
|Corporate
|At {{W|Project Xanadu}}, the first hypertext project, {{W|Robin Hanson}} uses the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|1999
|2000
|Launch
|Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start {{W|Intrade.com}}, a prediction market charging a monthly feeservice operating from the Republic of Ireland.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130601090502/https://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Sport-in-the-City|title=Sport in the City|date=2013-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2000
|2002
|Performance
|Chen and [[wikipedia:Charles Plott |Plott]] (2002) ran eight prediction markets within Hewlett-Packard to forecast important variables like quarterly printer sales.These results showed that the markets were more accurate than the company’s official forecasts.<ref>{{Citation|last=Chen|first=Kay-Yut|title=Chapter 40 Markets and Information Aggregation Mechanisms|date=2008|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1574-0722(07)00040-6|work=Handbook of Experimental Economics Results|pages=344–352|publisher=Elsevier|isbn=9780444826428|access-date=2018-09-23|last2=Plott|first2=Charles R.}}</ref>
|-
|2002
|2003
|Discontinuation
|Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811195116/http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html|title=Senator Ron Wyden|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>|-|2003|Discontinuation|DARPA's FutureMAP program terminatesthe next day.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811045100/http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/futuremap-darpa.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2004
|Publication
|{{W|James Surowiecki }} publishes the book "{{W|The Wisdom of Crowds}}", championing the idea of prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL9414725M/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds|title=The Wisdom of Crowds|last=Surowiecki|first=James|date=2004-06-03|publisher=Little, Brown|isbn=9780316861731}}</ref>
|-
|2004
|2005
|Research
|An article in ''[[wikipedia:Nature (journal)|Nature]]'' states how {{W|Eli Lilly and Company }} used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=|first=|date=2005-11-17|title=Wisdom of the crowd|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/438281a|journal=Nature|volume=438|issue=7066|pages=281–281|doi=10.1038/438281a|issn=0028-0836|via=}}</ref>
|-
|2005
|2007
|Publication
|First issue of the ''Journal of Prediction Markets'', with Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School as editor.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130308150634/http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/issue/view/49|title=Vol 1, No 1 (2007)|date=2013-03-08|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2007
|2008
|Publication
|A ''[[wikipedia:The New York Times |New York Times]]'' article discusses the use of prediction markets at InterContinental Hotels, Best Buy, Cisco Systems, GE Healthcare, General Mills, ArcelorMittal, Swisscom, and others. <ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/09/technology/techspecial/09predict.html|title=Betting to Improve the Odds|last=Lohr|first=Steve|access-date=2018-09-23|language=en}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|2008
|Launch
|Smarkets, a person-to-person betting exchangeplatform, launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080402232630/http://blog.smarkets.com/about/|title=About « Smarkets Blog|date=2008-04-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|2009
|Fiction
|{{W|Eliezer Yudkowsky }} publishes the science fiction story ''Three Worlds Collide'' featuring a civilization using prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HawFh7RvDM4RyoJ2d/three-worlds-collide-0-8|title=Three Worlds Collide|last=Yudkowsky|first=Eliezer|date=2009|website=LessWrong|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|2010
|2010
|Research
|{{W|IARPA}}'s Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches, seeking innovation in allocation of probabilistic jugments, conditional probabilities for contingent events, mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120916135741/https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title=Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities|date=2012-09-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2011
|Legal
|The US Department of Justice releases a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140815211239/https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/2011/09/31/state-lotteries-opinion.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2014-08-15|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|Research
|A systematic review of 155 articles on prediction markets published between 1990 and 2006 predicting that research on prediction on prediction markets will significantly increase, that there is a need to standardize the terminogy of the field, and that a dissemiination of prediction markets mechanism could lead to an expansion of relevant research and applications.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Tziralis|first=Georgios|last2=Tatsiopoulos|first2=Ilias|date=2007|title=Prediction markets: an information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/wremsd.2007.014044|journal=World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development|volume=3|issue=3/4|pages=251|doi=10.1504/wremsd.2007.014044|issn=1746-0573}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|2012
|Launch
|Bitbet.us becomes availableDavid Pennock, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, announces PredictWiseQ, an implementation of combinatorial prediction market design.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/2014040910064220121020123214/httpshttp://bitcointalkblog.oddhead.orgcom/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/index.php?topic=120757.0|title=Bitcoin Affiliate Programs.Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog|date=20142012-0410-0920|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|20122013|LaunchResearch|David PennockA meta-analysis indicates that "Various studies highlight that prediction markets are a reliable forecasting tool, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research which can be easily applied in New York Citylarger settings and are applicable for short-run and long-run predictions", announces PredictWiseQthat "prediction markets possess certain advantages like immediate feedback, an implementation transparency over all alternatives and the generation of combinatorial prediction market designfun during consensus building through game mechanics" over incentivizing experts directly, but that research is still at the beginning.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://webieeexplore.archiveieee.org/webabstract/20121020123214/http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/10/06/predictwiseqdocument/6550607|title=Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead BlogAccessing Knowledge with a Game -- A Meta-analysis of Prediction Markets - IEEE Conference Publication|website=ieeexplore.ieee.org|datelanguage=2012-10en-20US|access-date=2018-09-0430}}</ref>
|-
|2013
|2013
|Launch
|CrowdMed, a company aiming to identify illnesses that have gone without a diagnosis using prediction markets, is part of the [[Y Combinator (company){{W|Y Combinator]] }} winter 2013 class and launches its public beta at [[{{W|TEDMED]] }} 2013 in [[Washington, D.C.]]<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://techcrunch.com/2013/04/16/crowdmed/|title=With $1.1 Million In Funding, YC-Backed CrowdMed Launches To Crowdsource Medical Diagnoses|work=TechCrunch|access-date=2018-09-23|language=en-US}}</ref>
|-
|2013
|2013
|Performance
|(Snowberg, Wolfers, Zitzewitz 2013) show that the track record of prediction markets out-perform bothprofessional forecasters and polls in a variety of statistical tests.<ref>{{Citation|last=Snowberg|first=Erik|title=Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting|date=2013|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-444-53683-9.00011-6|work=Handbook of Economic Forecasting|pages=657–687|publisher=Elsevier|isbn=9780444536839|access-date=2018-09-23|last2=Wolfers|first2=Justin|last3=Zitzewitz|first3=Eric}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|Publication
|An article by Paul Sztorc of Truthcoin discusses applications of prediction markets outside of prediction, such as lie detection, whistleblowing, stabilizing crypto-assets, policy advice, etc.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://bitcoinhivemind.com/papers/3_PM_Applications.pdf|title=Extra-Predictive Applications of Prediction Markets|last=Sztorc|first=Paul|date=2014|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|Research
|A systematic review of 316 articles on prediction markets from 2007 to 2013 concluding that "the fundamentals of the concept have been sufficiently investigated in the academic research and thus the overall forecasting performance of Prediction Markets is currently at the center of interest."<ref name=":1" />
|-
|2014
|2014
|Launch
|Microsoft launches Prediction Lab, a product blending non-representative polling and prediction games.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150919035714/http://www.predictwise.com/node/3765|title=Why Microsoft Prediction Lab {{!}} PredictWise|date=2015-09-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|2015
|Launch
|Jack Peterson and Joey Krug register the Forecast Foundation OU in Estonia, the parent organization of the decentralized prediction market [[wikipedia:Augur (software)|Augur]] based on {{W|Ethereum}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830180936/https://www.infoproff.com/en/companies/regcard/EST7851930/12894333|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|2018
|Launch
|Official launch of [[wikipedia:Augur(software)|Augur]], a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180710084918/https://medium.com/@AugurProject/augur-launches-794fa7f88c6a|title=Augur Launches – Augur – Medium|date=2018-07-10|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018
|Launch
|Launch of Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831180707/https://www.tgdaily.com/games-and-entertainment/the-fame-project-is-letting-people-bet-on-the-future#bypass-sw|title=The Fame Project is Letting People Bet on the Future|work=TGDaily|access-date=2018-09-04|language=en}}</ref>
|-
|2019
|Publication
|The book ''Foundations of Prediction Markets: Modeling, Simulation, and Empirical Evidence'' is planned to be published in April 2019.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://www.amazon.ca/Foundations-Prediction-Markets-Simulation-Empirical/dp/4431552294/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1538330987&sr=1-1&keywords=9784431552291|title=Foundations of Prediction Markets: Modeling, Simulation, and Empirical Evidence|last=Chen|first=Shu-Heng|last2=Tung|first2=Chen-Yuan|last3=Yeh|first3=Jason|last4=Chie|first4=Bin-Tzong|last5=Tai|first5=Chung-Ching|last6=Lin|first6=Hung-Wen|date=2019-04-13|publisher=Springer|isbn=9784431552291|edition=1st ed. 2019 edition|location=Place of publication not identified|language=English}}</ref>
|}
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