Changes

|The economist {{W|Friedrich Hayek }} publishes the essay "{{W|The Use of Knowledge in Society}}" arguing that information is decentralized within an economy and how that contributes to efficiency. The essay initiates a wider interest for information in economics.<ref>{{Citation|last=Hayek|first=Friedrich|title=The use of knowledge in society|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511817410.007|work=The economic nature of the firm|pages=63–68|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=9780511817410|access-date=2018-09-30}}</ref> (In 2011, "The Use of Knowledge in Society" was selected as one of the top 20 articles published in the American Economic Review during its first 100 years.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Arrow|first=Kenneth J|last2=Bernheim|first2=B. Douglas|last3=Feldstein|first3=Martin S|last4=McFadden|first4=Daniel L|last5=Poterba|first5=James M|last6=Solow|first6=Robert M|date=February 2011|title=100 Years of theAmerican Economic Review: The Top 20 Articles|url=https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|journal=American Economic Review|language=en|volume=101|issue=1|pages=1–8|doi=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|issn=0002-8282|via=}}</ref>)

|The {{W|Federal Wire Act}} becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire {{W|wired communication facility }} for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-75/pdf/STATUTE-75-Pg491.pdf|title=Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>

|[[wikipedia:John Brunner (novelist)|John Brunner]] publishes ''{{W|The Shockwave Rider}}'', a science fiction story involving a prediction market named the Delphi pool.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL24612647M/The_shockwave_rider|title=The shockwave rider|last=Brunner|first=John|date=1975|publisher=Harper & Row|edition=Book club ed.|location=New York}}</ref>

|{{W|Iowa Political Stock Market}} , a non-profit prediction market platform for educational and research purposes, launches during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>

|At {{W|Project Xanadu}}, the first hypertext project, {{W|Robin Hanson}} uses the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>

|Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start {{W|Intrade.com}}, a prediction market charging a monthly feeservice operating from the Republic of Ireland.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130601090502/https://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Sport-in-the-City|title=Sport in the City|date=2013-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>

|Chen and [[wikipedia:Charles Plott |Plott]] (2002) ran eight prediction markets within Hewlett-Packard to forecast important variables like quarterly printer sales.These results showed that the markets were more accurate than the company’s official forecasts.<ref>{{Citation|last=Chen|first=Kay-Yut|title=Chapter 40 Markets and Information Aggregation Mechanisms|date=2008|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1574-0722(07)00040-6|work=Handbook of Experimental Economics Results|pages=344–352|publisher=Elsevier|isbn=9780444826428|access-date=2018-09-23|last2=Plott|first2=Charles R.}}</ref>

|Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811195116/http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html|title=Senator Ron Wyden|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>|-|2003|Discontinuation|DARPA's FutureMAP program terminatesthe next day.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811045100/http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/futuremap-darpa.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>

|{{W|James Surowiecki }} publishes the book "{{W|The Wisdom of Crowds}}", championing the idea of prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL9414725M/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds|title=The Wisdom of Crowds|last=Surowiecki|first=James|date=2004-06-03|publisher=Little, Brown|isbn=9780316861731}}</ref>

|An article in ''[[wikipedia:Nature (journal)|Nature]]'' states how {{W|Eli Lilly and Company }} used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=|first=|date=2005-11-17|title=Wisdom of the crowd|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/438281a|journal=Nature|volume=438|issue=7066|pages=281–281|doi=10.1038/438281a|issn=0028-0836|via=}}</ref>

|First issue of the ''Journal of Prediction Markets'', with Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School as editor.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130308150634/http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/issue/view/49|title=Vol 1, No 1 (2007)|date=2013-03-08|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>

|A ''[[wikipedia:The New York Times |New York Times]]'' article discusses the use of prediction markets at InterContinental Hotels, Best Buy, Cisco Systems, GE Healthcare, General Mills, ArcelorMittal, Swisscom, and others. <ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/09/technology/techspecial/09predict.html|title=Betting to Improve the Odds|last=Lohr|first=Steve|access-date=2018-09-23|language=en}}</ref>

|Smarkets, a person-to-person betting exchangeplatform, launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080402232630/http://blog.smarkets.com/about/|title=About « Smarkets Blog|date=2008-04-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>

|{{W|Eliezer Yudkowsky }} publishes the science fiction story ''Three Worlds Collide'' featuring a civilization using prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HawFh7RvDM4RyoJ2d/three-worlds-collide-0-8|title=Three Worlds Collide|last=Yudkowsky|first=Eliezer|date=2009|website=LessWrong|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>

|{{W|IARPA}}'s Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches, seeking innovation in allocation of probabilistic jugments, conditional probabilities for contingent events, mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120916135741/https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title=Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities|date=2012-09-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>

|A meta-analysis indicates that "Various studies highlight that prediction markets are a reliable forecasting tool, which can be easily applied in larger settings and are applicable for short-run and long-run predictions.", that "prediction markets possess certain advantages like immediate feedback, transparency over all alternatives and the generation of fun during consensus building through game mechanics." over incentivizing experts directly, but that research is still at the beginning.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/6550607|title=Accessing Knowledge with a Game -- A Meta-analysis of Prediction Markets - IEEE Conference Publication|website=ieeexplore.ieee.org|language=en-US|access-date=2018-09-30}}</ref>

|(Snowberg, Wolfers, Zitzewitz 2013) show that the track record of prediction markets out-perform bothprofessional forecasters and polls in a variety of statistical tests.<ref>{{Citation|last=Snowberg|first=Erik|title=Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting|date=2013|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-444-53683-9.00011-6|work=Handbook of Economic Forecasting|pages=657–687|publisher=Elsevier|isbn=9780444536839|access-date=2018-09-23|last2=Wolfers|first2=Justin|last3=Zitzewitz|first3=Eric}}</ref>

|Microsoft launches Prediction Lab, a product blending non-representative polling and prediction games.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150919035714/http://www.predictwise.com/node/3765|title=Why Microsoft Prediction Lab {{!}} PredictWise|date=2015-09-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>

|Jack Peterson and Joey Krug register the Forecast Foundation OU in Estonia, the parent organization of the decentralized prediction market [[wikipedia:Augur (software)|Augur]] based on {{W|Ethereum}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830180936/https://www.infoproff.com/en/companies/regcard/EST7851930/12894333|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>

|Official launch of [[wikipedia:Augur(software)|Augur]], a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180710084918/https://medium.com/@AugurProject/augur-launches-794fa7f88c6a|title=Augur Launches – Augur – Medium|date=2018-07-10|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>

|The book "''Foundations of Prediction Markets: Modeling, Simulation, and Empirical Evidence" '' is planned to be published in April 2019.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://www.amazon.ca/Foundations-Prediction-Markets-Simulation-Empirical/dp/4431552294/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1538330987&sr=1-1&keywords=9784431552291|title=Foundations of Prediction Markets: Modeling, Simulation, and Empirical Evidence|last=Chen|first=Shu-Heng|last2=Tung|first2=Chen-Yuan|last3=Yeh|first3=Jason|last4=Chie|first4=Bin-Tzong|last5=Tai|first5=Chung-Ching|last6=Lin|first6=Hung-Wen|date=2019-04-13|publisher=Springer|isbn=9784431552291|edition=1st ed. 2019 edition|location=Place of publication not identified|language=English}}</ref>

The initial version of the timeline was written by [[User:Orpheus Lummis|Orpheus_LummisOrpheus Lummis]].

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