Difference between revisions of "Timeline of prediction markets"
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|1945 | |1945 | ||
|Publication | |Publication | ||
− | |The economist Friedrich Hayek publishes the essay "The Use of Knowledge in Society" arguing that information is decentralized within an economy and how that contributes to efficiency. The essay initiates a wider interest for information in economics.<ref>{{Citation|last=Hayek|first=Friedrich|title=The use of knowledge in society|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511817410.007|work=The economic nature of the firm|pages=63–68|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=9780511817410|access-date=2018-09-30}}</ref> (In 2011, "The Use of Knowledge in Society" was selected as one of the top 20 articles published in the American Economic Review during its first 100 years.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Arrow|first=Kenneth J|last2=Bernheim|first2=B. Douglas|last3=Feldstein|first3=Martin S|last4=McFadden|first4=Daniel L|last5=Poterba|first5=James M|last6=Solow|first6=Robert M|date=February 2011|title=100 Years of theAmerican Economic Review: The Top 20 Articles|url=https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|journal=American Economic Review|language=en|volume=101|issue=1|pages=1–8|doi=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|issn=0002-8282|via=}}</ref>) | + | |The economist {{W|Friedrich Hayek}} publishes the essay "The Use of Knowledge in Society" arguing that information is decentralized within an economy and how that contributes to efficiency. The essay initiates a wider interest for information in economics.<ref>{{Citation|last=Hayek|first=Friedrich|title=The use of knowledge in society|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511817410.007|work=The economic nature of the firm|pages=63–68|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=9780511817410|access-date=2018-09-30}}</ref> (In 2011, "The Use of Knowledge in Society" was selected as one of the top 20 articles published in the American Economic Review during its first 100 years.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Arrow|first=Kenneth J|last2=Bernheim|first2=B. Douglas|last3=Feldstein|first3=Martin S|last4=McFadden|first4=Daniel L|last5=Poterba|first5=James M|last6=Solow|first6=Robert M|date=February 2011|title=100 Years of theAmerican Economic Review: The Top 20 Articles|url=https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|journal=American Economic Review|language=en|volume=101|issue=1|pages=1–8|doi=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|issn=0002-8282|via=}}</ref>) |
|- | |- | ||
|1961 | |1961 | ||
|Legal | |Legal | ||
− | |The {{W|Federal Wire Act}} becomes effective in the US, outlawing using | + | |The {{W|Federal Wire Act}} becomes effective in the US, outlawing using {{W|wired communication}} for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-75/pdf/STATUTE-75-Pg491.pdf|title=Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref> |
|- | |- | ||
|1975 | |1975 | ||
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|1988 | |1988 | ||
|Launch | |Launch | ||
− | |{{W|Iowa Political Stock Market}} launches during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref> | + | |{{W|Iowa Political Stock Market}}, a non-profit prediction market platform for educational and research purposes, launches during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref> |
|- | |- | ||
|1990 | |1990 | ||
|Corporate | |Corporate | ||
− | |At {{W|Project Xanadu}}, {{W|Robin Hanson}} uses the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | + | |At {{W|Project Xanadu}}, the first hypertext project, {{W|Robin Hanson}} uses the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> |
|- | |- | ||
|1999 | |1999 | ||
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|2000 | |2000 | ||
|Launch | |Launch | ||
− | |Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start {{W|Intrade.com}}, a prediction market | + | |Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start {{W|Intrade.com}}, a prediction market service operating from the Republic of Ireland.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130601090502/https://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Sport-in-the-City|title=Sport in the City|date=2013-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> |
|- | |- | ||
|2000 | |2000 | ||
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|2002 | |2002 | ||
|Performance | |Performance | ||
− | |Chen and Plott (2002) ran eight prediction markets within Hewlett-Packard to forecast important variables like quarterly printer sales.These results showed that the markets were more accurate than the company’s official forecasts.<ref>{{Citation|last=Chen|first=Kay-Yut|title=Chapter 40 Markets and Information Aggregation Mechanisms|date=2008|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1574-0722(07)00040-6|work=Handbook of Experimental Economics Results|pages=344–352|publisher=Elsevier|isbn=9780444826428|access-date=2018-09-23|last2=Plott|first2=Charles R.}}</ref> | + | |Chen and Plott (2002) ran eight prediction markets within Hewlett-Packard to forecast important variables like quarterly printer sales. These results showed that the markets were more accurate than the company’s official forecasts.<ref>{{Citation|last=Chen|first=Kay-Yut|title=Chapter 40 Markets and Information Aggregation Mechanisms|date=2008|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1574-0722(07)00040-6|work=Handbook of Experimental Economics Results|pages=344–352|publisher=Elsevier|isbn=9780444826428|access-date=2018-09-23|last2=Plott|first2=Charles R.}}</ref> |
|- | |- | ||
|2002 | |2002 | ||
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|2003 | |2003 | ||
|Discontinuation | |Discontinuation | ||
− | |Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811195116/http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html|title=Senator Ron Wyden|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | + | |Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811195116/http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html|title=Senator Ron Wyden|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> DARPA's FutureMAP program terminates the next day.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811045100/http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/futuremap-darpa.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> |
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|- | |- | ||
|2004 | |2004 | ||
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|2008 | |2008 | ||
|Launch | |Launch | ||
− | |Smarkets, a betting exchange, launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080402232630/http://blog.smarkets.com/about/|title=About « Smarkets Blog|date=2008-04-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | + | |Smarkets, a person-to-person betting exchange platform, launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080402232630/http://blog.smarkets.com/about/|title=About « Smarkets Blog|date=2008-04-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> |
|- | |- | ||
|2008 | |2008 | ||
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|2010 | |2010 | ||
|Research | |Research | ||
− | |{{W|IARPA}}'s Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120916135741/https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title=Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities|date=2012-09-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | + | |{{W|IARPA}}'s Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches, seeking innovation in allocation of probabilistic jugments, conditional probabilities for contingent events, mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120916135741/https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title=Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities|date=2012-09-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> |
|- | |- | ||
|2011 | |2011 | ||
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|Legal | |Legal | ||
|CFTC charges Intrade and TEN with violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and filing false forms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121202055455/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6423-12|title=CFTC Charges Ireland-based “Prediction Market” Proprietors Intrade and TEN with Violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and Filing False Forms with the CFTC|date=2012-12-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |CFTC charges Intrade and TEN with violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and filing false forms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121202055455/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6423-12|title=CFTC Charges Ireland-based “Prediction Market” Proprietors Intrade and TEN with Violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and Filing False Forms with the CFTC|date=2012-12-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
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− | |||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|2012 | |2012 | ||
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|2013 | |2013 | ||
|Performance | |Performance | ||
− | |(Snowberg, Wolfers, Zitzewitz 2013) show that the track record of prediction markets out-perform both | + | |(Snowberg, Wolfers, Zitzewitz 2013) show that the track record of prediction markets out-perform both professional forecasters and polls in a variety of statistical tests.<ref>{{Citation|last=Snowberg|first=Erik|title=Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting|date=2013|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-444-53683-9.00011-6|work=Handbook of Economic Forecasting|pages=657–687|publisher=Elsevier|isbn=9780444536839|access-date=2018-09-23|last2=Wolfers|first2=Justin|last3=Zitzewitz|first3=Eric}}</ref> |
− | professional forecasters and polls in a variety of statistical tests.<ref>{{Citation|last=Snowberg|first=Erik|title=Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting|date=2013|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-444-53683-9.00011-6|work=Handbook of Economic Forecasting|pages=657–687|publisher=Elsevier|isbn=9780444536839|access-date=2018-09-23|last2=Wolfers|first2=Justin|last3=Zitzewitz|first3=Eric}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2014 | |2014 | ||
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|2014 | |2014 | ||
|Launch | |Launch | ||
− | |Microsoft launches Prediction Lab.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150919035714/http://www.predictwise.com/node/3765|title=Why Microsoft Prediction Lab {{!}} PredictWise|date=2015-09-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | + | |Microsoft launches Prediction Lab, a product blending non-representative polling and prediction games.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150919035714/http://www.predictwise.com/node/3765|title=Why Microsoft Prediction Lab {{!}} PredictWise|date=2015-09-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> |
|- | |- | ||
|2014 | |2014 |
Revision as of 20:22, 30 September 2018
This is a timeline of prediction markets.
Prediction markets are a forecasting mechanism able to handle efficiently the dynamic aggregation of dispersed information among various agents. They can be thought of as betting markets structured to elicit and aggregate beliefs of future events.
Prediction markets are also sometimes known under the names: information markets, electronic markets, decision markets, virtual markets, election stock markets, idea futures, artificial markets, political stock markets, game market.
Contents
Big picture
Time period | Development summary |
---|---|
Up to the 16th century | The first written records of political betting date from 1503 (wagering on papal election).[3] |
16th & 17th century | In Italian city-states, betting is prevalent regarding the choice of government officials and on papal selection.[1][4] |
18th to early 20th century | There are various instances of political betting on the timing and winning party of Parliamentary elections in Britain, on the outcomes of local and national elections in Canada, and on Presidential and Congressional winners in the United States.[5] |
Full timeline
Year | Event type | Event |
---|---|---|
1945 | Publication | The economist Friedrich Hayek publishes the essay "The Use of Knowledge in Society" arguing that information is decentralized within an economy and how that contributes to efficiency. The essay initiates a wider interest for information in economics.[6] (In 2011, "The Use of Knowledge in Society" was selected as one of the top 20 articles published in the American Economic Review during its first 100 years.[7]) |
1961 | Legal | The Federal Wire Act becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wired communication for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.[8] |
1975 | Fiction | John Brunner publishes The Shockwave Rider, a science fiction story involving a prediction market named the Delphi pool.[9] |
1988 | Launch | Iowa Political Stock Market, a non-profit prediction market platform for educational and research purposes, launches during the US presidential election.[10] |
1990 | Corporate | At Project Xanadu, the first hypertext project, Robin Hanson uses the first known corporate prediction market.[11] |
1999 | Performance | Hollywood Stock Exchange's NominOptions predicts 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.[12] |
2000 | Launch | Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start Intrade.com, a prediction market service operating from the Republic of Ireland.[13] |
2000 | Launch | NewsFutures, a play-money prediction market, is found by Émile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick.[14] |
2001 | Research | DARPA launches a call for proposal for the development of decision markets, later known as FutureMAP.[15] |
2001 | Launch | Long Bets Foundation is found as a 501(c)(3) public education nonprofit foundation by The Long Now Foundation.[16] |
2002 | Performance | Chen and Plott (2002) ran eight prediction markets within Hewlett-Packard to forecast important variables like quarterly printer sales. These results showed that the markets were more accurate than the company’s official forecasts.[17] |
2002 | Corporate | Yahoo starts experimenting with prediction markets internally.[18] |
2003 | Discontinuation | Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.[19] DARPA's FutureMAP program terminates the next day.[20] |
2004 | Publication | James Surowiecki publishes the book "The Wisdom of Crowds", championing the idea of prediction markets.[21] |
2004 | Launch | HedgeStreet is found with the approval of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).[22] |
2005 | Research | An article in Nature states how Eli Lilly and Company used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.[23] |
2005 | Corporate | Google announces that it has been using prediction markets internally.[24] |
2006 | Launch | XFuture, a Chinese-language prediction market exchange, is launched collaboratively by the Center for Prediction Markets at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University and xPredict Ltd.[25] |
2006 | Legal | The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act comes into effect in the US, prohibiting "gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the Internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law."[26] |
2006 | Corporate | Inkling, a company offering prediction markets tools for businesses, is found.[27] |
2006 | Corporate | The Ford Motor Company starts using a prediction market internally.[28] |
2007 | Publication | First issue of the Journal of Prediction Markets, with Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School as editor.[29] |
2007 | Corporate | Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, with the goals of promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.[30] |
2008 | Publication | A New York Times article discusses the use of prediction markets at InterContinental Hotels, Best Buy, Cisco Systems, GE Healthcare, General Mills, ArcelorMittal, Swisscom, and others. [31] |
2008 | Launch | iPredict launches with the approval of the Securities Commission of New Zealand.[32] |
2008 | Launch | Smarkets, a person-to-person betting exchange platform, launches.[33] |
2008 | Legal | The CFTC solicits comments on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.[34] |
2008 | Publication | A joint statement by 22 lead economists and scientists is published in Science on the promise of prediction markets, demanding that the CFTC should "establish safe-harbor rules for selected small-stakes markets" and that "Congress should support the CFTC’s efforts to develop prediction markets".[35] |
2009 | Fiction | Eliezer Yudkowsky publishes the science fiction story Three Worlds Collide featuring a civilization using prediction markets.[36] |
2010 | Corporate | NewsFutures becomes Lumenogic, a company offering collective intelligence services to firms.[37] |
2010 | Research | IARPA's Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches, seeking innovation in allocation of probabilistic jugments, conditional probabilities for contingent events, mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.[38] |
2011 | Launch | DAGGRE launches as part of IARPA's ACE program.[39] |
2011 | Legal | The US Department of Justice releases a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."[40] |
2012 | Research | A systematic review of 155 articles on prediction markets published between 1990 and 2006 predicting that research on prediction on prediction markets will significantly increase, that there is a need to standardize the terminogy of the field, and that a dissemiination of prediction markets mechanism could lead to an expansion of relevant research and applications.[41] |
2012 | Legal | CFTC charges Intrade and TEN with violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and filing false forms.[42] |
2012 | Launch | David Pennock, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, announces PredictWiseQ, an implementation of combinatorial prediction market design.[43] |
2013 | Research | A meta-analysis indicates that "Various studies highlight that prediction markets are a reliable forecasting tool, which can be easily applied in larger settings and are applicable for short-run and long-run predictions.", that "prediction markets possess certain advantages like immediate feedback, transparency over all alternatives and the generation of fun during consensus building through game mechanics." over incentivizing experts directly, but that research is still at the beginning.[44] |
2013 | Legal | CFTC charges “Prediction Market” Banc de Binary Ltd, an Israeli firm, with violating the CFTC’s off-exchange options trading Ban and operating as an unregistered Futures Commission Merchant.[45] |
2013 | Publication | A blog post discusses using prediction markets to fund public goods.[46] |
2013 | Launch | CrowdMed, a company aiming to identify illnesses that have gone without a diagnosis using prediction markets, is part of the Y Combinator winter 2013 class and launches its public beta at TEDMED 2013 in Washington, D.C.[47] |
2013 | Launch | First commit on TruthCoin (later called Hivemind), a Bitcoin-based decentralized prediction market.[48] |
2013 | Performance | The Good Judgment Project wins IARPA's ACE program.[49] |
2013 | Performance | (Snowberg, Wolfers, Zitzewitz 2013) show that the track record of prediction markets out-perform both professional forecasters and polls in a variety of statistical tests.[50] |
2014 | Publication | An article by Paul Sztorc of Truthcoin discusses applications of prediction markets outside of prediction, such as lie detection, whistleblowing, stabilizing crypto-assets, policy advice, etc.[51] |
2014 | Research | A systematic review of 316 articles on prediction markets from 2007 to 2013 concluding that "the fundamentals of the concept have been sufficiently investigated in the academic research and thus the overall forecasting performance of Prediction Markets is currently at the center of interest."[2] |
2014 | Legal | CFTC provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to operate a not-for-profit market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to US persons.[52] |
2014 | Launch | Microsoft launches Prediction Lab, a product blending non-representative polling and prediction games.[53] |
2014 | Discontinuation | DAGGRE stops. Robin Hanson announces SciCast, a combinatorial prediction markets for aggregating expertise, as part of IARPA's ForeST program.[54] |
2014 | Launch | Launch of Fairlay, a Bitcoin-based prediction market.[55] |
2014 | Launch | Lumenogic (previously NewsFutures) launches Hypermind, a play-money prediction market, leveraging techniques built for the Good Judgment Project.[56] |
2015 | Research | Publication of a paper on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.[57] |
2015 | Launch | Launch of Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions.[58] |
2015 | Publication | SciCast releases its final report.[59] |
2015 | Discontinuation | Suspension of SciCast after losing IARPA funding.[60] |
2015 | Launch | Jack Peterson and Joey Krug register the Forecast Foundation OU in Estonia, the parent organization of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on Ethereum.[61] |
2015 | Launch | Martin Köppelmann announces Gnosis, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.[62] |
2015 | Corporate | Publication of a paper on the use of internal prediction markets at Google, Ford, and a pseudonymous materials & energy conglomerate.[63] |
2016 | Discontinuation | iPredict closes after Associate Justice Minister Simon Bridges refused to grant it an exemption from the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act, declaring that it was a "legitimate money laundering risk" because of the lack of customer due diligence.[64] |
2016 | Discontinuation | Microsoft silently phases out Prediction Lab.[65] |
2017 | Launch | Founding and initial coin offering of STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market.[66] |
2017 | Launch | The Winton Group (British investment management firm) starts climatepredictionmarket.com, a prediction market for climate prediction.[67] |
2018 | Legal | The Federal Court in District of Columbia orders Intrade and TEN to pay $3 million Civil Monetary Penalty for illegally trading binary options and violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order.[68] |
2018 | Launch | Official launch of Augur, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.[69] |
2018 | Launch | Launch of Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news.[70] |
2019 | Publication | The book "Foundations of Prediction Markets: Modeling, Simulation, and Empirical Evidence" is planned to be published in April 2019.[71] |
Meta information on the timeline
The initial version of the timeline was written by Orpheus_Lummis.
Funding information for this timeline is available.
Feedback and comments
Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:
- TBD reddit
- TBD facebook
- by emailing o@orpheuslummis.com
Timeline update strategy
Review yearly the advances of the field and historical material that is uncovered.
See also
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2013-11-12). "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective". doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjoern Sven; Ohneberg, Michael; Brem, Alexander (2014-09-23). "Prediction Markets – A literature review 2014". The Journal of Prediction Markets. 8 (2): 89–126. doi:10.5750/jpm.v8i2.889.
- ↑ Baumgartner, Frederic J. (2003), "The Creation of the Conclave", Behind Locked Doors, Palgrave Macmillan US, pp. 39–58, ISBN 9781403969620, retrieved 2018-09-04
- ↑ Walker, J. (1999-02-01). "GAMBLING AND VENETIAN NOBLEMEN c. 1500-1700". Past & Present. 162 (1): 28–69. ISSN 0031-2746. doi:10.1093/past/162.1.28.
- ↑ Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2013-11-12). "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective". doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029.
- ↑ Hayek, Friedrich, "The use of knowledge in society", The economic nature of the firm, Cambridge University Press, pp. 63–68, ISBN 9780511817410, retrieved 2018-09-30
- ↑ Arrow, Kenneth J; Bernheim, B. Douglas; Feldstein, Martin S; McFadden, Daniel L; Poterba, James M; Solow, Robert M (February 2011). "100 Years of theAmerican Economic Review: The Top 20 Articles". American Economic Review. 101 (1): 1–8. ISSN 0002-8282. doi:10.1257/aer.101.1.1.
- ↑ "Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act" (PDF).
- ↑ Brunner, John (1975). The shockwave rider (Book club ed. ed.). New York: Harper & Row.
- ↑ "Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"". Archived from the original on 2012-11-30.
- ↑ "Robin Hanson's Bio". 2015-02-19. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-08-26. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Sport in the City". 2013-06-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info". 2000-12-16. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "POINTS OF CONTACT". 2002-01-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Wayback Machine". 2002-10-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ Chen, Kay-Yut; Plott, Charles R. (2008), "Chapter 40 Markets and Information Aggregation Mechanisms", Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, Elsevier, pp. 344–352, ISBN 9780444826428, retrieved 2018-09-23
- ↑ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-06-22. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Senator Ron Wyden". 2003-08-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2003-08-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ Surowiecki, James (2004-06-03). The Wisdom of Crowds. Little, Brown. ISBN 9780316861731.
- ↑ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-08-26. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Wisdom of the crowd". Nature. 438 (7066): 281–281. 2005-11-17. ISSN 0028-0836. doi:10.1038/438281a.
- ↑ "Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work". 2005-10-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "The Exchange of Future Events". 政治大學預測市場研究中心 (in 中文). 2010-05-07. Retrieved 2018-09-23.
- ↑ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2010-06-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Inkling | Crunchbase". Crunchbase. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ Montgomery, Thomas A.; Stieg, Paul M.; Cavaretta, Michael J.; Moraal, Paul E. (2013-08-11). "Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts". ACM: 1384–1392. ISBN 9781450321747. doi:10.1145/2487575.2488212.
- ↑ "Vol 1, No 1 (2007)". 2013-03-08. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "PMIA – Come to Know". 2017-04-29. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
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