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Timeline of prediction markets

190 bytes added, 20:53, 4 September 2018
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This is a '''timeline of {{W|prediction markets}}'''.
== Big picture ==
|1961
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|The ''{{W|Federal Wire Act'' }} becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire communication facility for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-75/pdf/STATUTE-75-Pg491.pdf|title=Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|1988
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|{{W|Iowa Political Stock Market }} launches during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|1990
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|At {{W|Project Xanadu}}, {{W|Robin Hanson }} uses the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|1999
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|{{W|Hollywood Stock Exchange}}'s NominOptions predicts 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194335/https://www.hsx.com/about/pr_oscar_nom_2006.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2000
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|Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start {{W|Intrade.com}}, a prediction market, charging a monthly fee.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130601090502/https://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Sport-in-the-City|title=Sport in the City|date=2013-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2000
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|{{W|NewsFutures}}, a play-money prediction market, is found by Émile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20001216131100/http://ps.newsfutures.com:80/index.html|title=NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info|date=2000-12-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2001
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|{{W|DARPA }} launches a call for proposal for the development of decision markets, later known as FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20020111195139/http://www.acq.osd.mil/sadbu/sbir/solicitations/sbir012/darpa012.htm|title=POINTS OF CONTACT|date=2002-01-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2001
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|Long Bets Foundation is found as a 501(c)(3) public education nonprofit foundation by {{W|The Long Now Foundation}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021001000000*/http://longbets.org/about/|title=Wayback Machine|date=2002-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2002
|2004
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|James Surowiecki publishes the book "{{W|The Wisdom of Crowds}}", championing the idea of prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL9414725M/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds|title=The Wisdom of Crowds|last=Surowiecki|first=James|date=2004-06-03|publisher=Little, Brown|isbn=9780316861731}}</ref>
|-
|2004
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|{{W|HedgeStreet }} is found with the approval of the {{W|Commodity Futures Trading Commission}} (CFTC).<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194606/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/files/anr/anr2004.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2005
|2006
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|The ''{{W|Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act'' }} comes into effect in the US, prohibiting "gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the Internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100601165540/https://www.ots.treas.gov/_files/422372.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2010-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2006
|2008
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|{{W|iPredict }} launches with the approval of the {{W|Securities Commission of New Zealand Securities Commission}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110407211908/http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2008/0285/latest/whole.html|title=Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008 (SR 2008/285) – New Zealand Legislation|date=2011-04-07|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|2010
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|{{W|IARPA}}'s Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120916135741/https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title=Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities|date=2012-09-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2011
|2013
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|{{W|The Good Judgement Judgment Project }} wins IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131127133205/https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/|title=Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)|date=2013-11-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
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|CFTC provides {{W|No-Action Relief }} for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to operate a not-for-profit Market market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to U.S. US persons.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141103175945/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7047-14|title=CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons|date=2014-11-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|2015
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|Publication of a paper on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research, in the {{W|Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}}.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Dreber|first=Anna|last2=Pfeiffer|first2=Thomas|last3=Almenberg|first3=Johan|last4=Isaksson|first4=Siri|last5=Wilson|first5=Brad|last6=Chen|first6=Yiling|last7=Nosek|first7=Brian A.|last8=Johannesson|first8=Magnus|date=2015-12-15|title=Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research|url=http://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=112|issue=50|pages=15343–15347|doi=10.1073/pnas.1516179112|issn=0027-8424|pmc=4687569|pmid=26553988}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|2015
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|Jack Peterson and Joey Krug register the Forecast Foundation OU in Estonia, the parent organization of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on {{W|Ethereum}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830180936/https://www.infoproff.com/en/companies/regcard/EST7851930/12894333|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|2017
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|Founding and ICO {{W|initial coin offering}} of STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802121404/https://www.newsbtc.com/2017/08/02/stox-prediction-platforms-ico-begins-now/|title=STOX – The Prediction Platform’s ICO Begins Now! - NEWSBTC|date=2017-08-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2017
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|The {{W|Winton Group }} (British investment management firm) starts climatepredictionmarket.com, a prediction market for climate prediction.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180130145737/http://www.pionline.com/article/20171030/PRINT/171039996/winton-provides-market-for-those-who-want-to-wager-on-the-weather|title=Winton provides market for those who want to wager on the weather - Pensions & Investments|date=2018-01-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018
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|The Federal Court in District of Columbia orders Intrade and TEN to pay $3 million Civil Monetary Penalty for illegally trading binary options and violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180801212926/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7758-18|title=Federal Court in District of Columbia Orders “Prediction Market” Companies to Pay $3 Million Civil Monetary Penalty for Illegally Trading Binary Options and Violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order {{!}} U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION|date=2018-08-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018

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