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Timeline of prediction markets

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This is a '''timeline of {{W|prediction markets}}'''.
 
Prediction markets are a forecasting mechanism able to handle efficiently the dynamic aggregation of dispersed information among various agents. They can be thought of as betting markets structured to elicit and aggregate beliefs of future events.
 
Prediction markets are also sometimes known under the names: information markets, electronic markets, decision markets, virtual markets, election stock markets, idea futures, artificial markets, political stock markets, game market.
 
[[File:Figure_1_of_Rhode,_Paul;_Strumpf,_Koleman_(2013).png|600px]]<ref name=":0" />
 
[[File:Figure_8_of_Tziralis,_Georgios;_Tatsiopoulos,_Ilias_(2007).png|600px]]<ref name=":1">{{Cite journal|last=Horn|first=Christian Franz|last2=Ivens|first2=Bjoern Sven|last3=Ohneberg|first3=Michael|last4=Brem|first4=Alexander|date=2014-09-23|title=Prediction Markets – A literature review 2014|url=http://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/889|journal=The Journal of Prediction Markets|language=en|volume=8|issue=2|pages=89–126|doi=10.5750/jpm.v8i2.889}}</ref>
== Big picture ==
|-
|Up to the 16th century
|"Wagering The first written records of political betting date from 1503 (wagering on the papal election was an old practice by 1503, but the Venetian ambassadors' reports in Sanuto, I Diarii, are the first sources on the odds)."<ref>{{Citation|last=Baumgartner|first=Frederic J.|title=The Creation of the Conclave|date=2003|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-11014-5_3|work=Behind Locked Doors|pages=39–58|publisher=Palgrave Macmillan US|isbn=9781403969620|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|16th & 17th century
|In Italian city-states, betting is prevalent regarding the choice of government officials and on papal selection.<refname=":0">{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Walker|first=J.|date=1999-02-01|title=GAMBLING AND VENETIAN NOBLEMEN c. 1500-1700|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/past/162.1.28|journal=Past & Present|volume=162|issue=1|pages=28–69|doi=10.1093/past/162.1.28|issn=0031-2746}}</ref>
|-
|18th to early 20th century
|Various There are various instances of political betting on the timing and winning party of Parliamentary elections in Britain, on the outcomes of local and national elections in Canada, and on Presidential and Congressional winners in the United States.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref>
|-
|}
!Event type
!Event
|-
|1945
|Publication
|The economist Friedrich Hayek publishes the essay "The Use of Knowledge in Society" arguing that information is decentralized within an economy and how that contributes to efficiency. The essay initiates a wider interest for information in economics.<ref>{{Citation|last=Hayek|first=Friedrich|title=The use of knowledge in society|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511817410.007|work=The economic nature of the firm|pages=63–68|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=9780511817410|access-date=2018-09-30}}</ref> (In 2011, "The Use of Knowledge in Society" was selected as one of the top 20 articles published in the American Economic Review during its first 100 years.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Arrow|first=Kenneth J|last2=Bernheim|first2=B. Douglas|last3=Feldstein|first3=Martin S|last4=McFadden|first4=Daniel L|last5=Poterba|first5=James M|last6=Solow|first6=Robert M|date=February 2011|title=100 Years of theAmerican Economic Review: The Top 20 Articles|url=https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|journal=American Economic Review|language=en|volume=101|issue=1|pages=1–8|doi=10.1257/aer.101.1.1|issn=0002-8282|via=}}</ref>)
|-
|1961
|Legal
|The US Department of Justice releases a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140815211239/https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/2011/09/31/state-lotteries-opinion.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2014-08-15|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|Research
|A systematic review of 155 articles on prediction markets published between 1990 and 2006 predicting that research on prediction on prediction markets will significantly increase, that there is a need to standardize the terminogy of the field, and that a dissemiination of prediction markets mechanism could lead to an expansion of relevant research and applications.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Tziralis|first=Georgios|last2=Tatsiopoulos|first2=Ilias|date=2007|title=Prediction markets: an information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/wremsd.2007.014044|journal=World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development|volume=3|issue=3/4|pages=251|doi=10.1504/wremsd.2007.014044|issn=1746-0573}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|Launch
|David Pennock, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, announces PredictWiseQ, an implementation of combinatorial prediction market design.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121020123214/http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/|title=Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog|date=2012-10-20|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2013
|Research
|A meta-analysis indicates that "Various studies highlight that prediction markets are a reliable forecasting tool, which can be easily applied in larger settings and are applicable for short-run and long-run predictions.", that "prediction markets possess certain advantages like immediate feedback, transparency over all alternatives and the generation of fun during consensus building through game mechanics." over incentivizing experts directly, but that research is still at the beginning.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/6550607|title=Accessing Knowledge with a Game -- A Meta-analysis of Prediction Markets - IEEE Conference Publication|website=ieeexplore.ieee.org|language=en-US|access-date=2018-09-30}}</ref>
|-
|2013
|2013
|Launch
|CrowdMed, a company aiming to identify illnesses that have gone without a diagnosis using prediction markets, is part of the [[Y Combinator (company){{W|Y Combinator]] }} winter 2013 class and launches its public beta at [[{{W|TEDMED]] }} 2013 in [[Washington, D.C.]]<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://techcrunch.com/2013/04/16/crowdmed/|title=With $1.1 Million In Funding, YC-Backed CrowdMed Launches To Crowdsource Medical Diagnoses|work=TechCrunch|access-date=2018-09-23|language=en-US}}</ref>
|-
|2013
|Publication
|An article by Paul Sztorc of Truthcoin discusses applications of prediction markets outside of prediction, such as lie detection, whistleblowing, stabilizing crypto-assets, policy advice, etc.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://bitcoinhivemind.com/papers/3_PM_Applications.pdf|title=Extra-Predictive Applications of Prediction Markets|last=Sztorc|first=Paul|date=2014|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|Research
|A systematic review of 316 articles on prediction markets from 2007 to 2013 concluding that "the fundamentals of the concept have been sufficiently investigated in the academic research and thus the overall forecasting performance of Prediction Markets is currently at the center of interest."<ref name=":1" />
|-
|2014
|Launch
|Launch of Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831180707/https://www.tgdaily.com/games-and-entertainment/the-fame-project-is-letting-people-bet-on-the-future#bypass-sw|title=The Fame Project is Letting People Bet on the Future|work=TGDaily|access-date=2018-09-04|language=en}}</ref>
|-
|2019
|Publication
|The book "Foundations of Prediction Markets: Modeling, Simulation, and Empirical Evidence" is planned to be published in April 2019.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://www.amazon.ca/Foundations-Prediction-Markets-Simulation-Empirical/dp/4431552294/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1538330987&sr=1-1&keywords=9784431552291|title=Foundations of Prediction Markets: Modeling, Simulation, and Empirical Evidence|last=Chen|first=Shu-Heng|last2=Tung|first2=Chen-Yuan|last3=Yeh|first3=Jason|last4=Chie|first4=Bin-Tzong|last5=Tai|first5=Chung-Ching|last6=Lin|first6=Hung-Wen|date=2019-04-13|publisher=Springer|isbn=9784431552291|edition=1st ed. 2019 edition|location=Place of publication not identified|language=English}}</ref>
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