Difference between revisions of "Speculative timeline of future malaria events"

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| 2021 || Diagnosis || The world’s first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to be launched by this year by South Africa-based Erada Technology Alliance, in collaboration with international partners CellFree Sciences, Frontier Institute, Johns Hopkins University and Oasis Diagnostics.<ref name="thejournalofmhealth.com"/> || {{w|Africa}} || ||
 
| 2021 || Diagnosis || The world’s first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to be launched by this year by South Africa-based Erada Technology Alliance, in collaboration with international partners CellFree Sciences, Frontier Institute, Johns Hopkins University and Oasis Diagnostics.<ref name="thejournalofmhealth.com"/> || {{w|Africa}} || ||
 
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| 2021 || Treatment || London based medical device company MediSieve aims to launch a magnetic blood filter intended to enable doctors to remove infected red blood cells from the bloodstream directly, thus reducing parasitaemia, which would result in the usage of fewer IV drugs while minimizing hospital time – leading to cost savings.<ref>{{cite web |title=World Malaria Day: Five latest devices to combat the spread of malaria |url=https://www.nsmedicaldevices.com/news/world-malaria-day-devices-combat-malaria/ |website=nsmedicaldevices.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|United Kingdom}} || MediSieve || 2019
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| 2021 || Treatment || London based medical device company MediSieve aims to launch a magnetic blood filter intended to enable doctors to remove infected red blood cells from the bloodstream directly, thus reducing parasitaemia, which would result in the usage of fewer IV drugs while minimizing hospital time – leading to cost savings.<ref>{{cite web |title=World Malaria Day: Five latest devices to combat the spread of malaria |url=https://www.nsmedicaldevices.com/news/world-malaria-day-devices-combat-malaria/ |website=nsmedicaldevices.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|United Kingdom}} || MediSieve || ~2019
 
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| 2040 || Eradication || Study finds that achieving malaria eradication by this year would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. It would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Willis |first1=Derek W. |last2=Hamon |first2=Nick |title=Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality |doi=10.12688/gatesopenres.12843.2 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6266653/ |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Worldwide}} || ||
 
| 2040 || Eradication || Study finds that achieving malaria eradication by this year would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. It would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Willis |first1=Derek W. |last2=Hamon |first2=Nick |title=Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality |doi=10.12688/gatesopenres.12843.2 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6266653/ |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Worldwide}} || ||
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| 2050 || Epidemic || The {{w|World Health Organization}}’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.<ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Eradication Feasible by 2050, Says New Lancet Report |url=https://www.healthpolicy-watch.org/malaria-eradication-feasible-by-2050-says-new-lancet-commission-report/ |website=healthpolicy-watch.org |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Africa}} || ||
 
| 2050 || Epidemic || The {{w|World Health Organization}}’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.<ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Eradication Feasible by 2050, Says New Lancet Report |url=https://www.healthpolicy-watch.org/malaria-eradication-feasible-by-2050-says-new-lancet-commission-report/ |website=healthpolicy-watch.org |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Africa}} || ||
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| 2051–2080 || Endemicity || Temperature estimates for this period speculate that up to 96.5% of the territory of {{w|Germany}} could experience a 4–5 month transmission window for malaria.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Schröder |first1=Winfried |last2=Schmidt |first2=Gunther |title=Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures |url=https://books.google.com.ar/books?id=5jG8BAAAQBAJ&pg=PR7&lpg=PR7&dq=%22malaria%22+%22in+2051..2100%22&source=bl&ots=HHZdeEiS61&sig=ACfU3U3Aj7paiqsbaApICPcqwZAkLxhcuQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjfn_r1qODlAhWJGbkGHZBNA1oQ6AEwDXoECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=%22malaria%22%20%22in%202051..2100%22&f=false}}</ref> || {{w|Germany}} || {{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} || <2013
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| 2070 || Vector || Members of the ''{{w|Anopheles albitarsis}}'' complex are expected to become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in {{w|South America}} by this time.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Zorello Laporta |first1=Gabriel |last2=Linton |first2=Yvonne-Marie |last3=Wilkerson |first3=Richard C. |last4=Bergo |first4=Eduardo Sterlino |last5=Sayuri Nagaki |first5=Sandra |last6=Sant’Ana |first6=Denise Cristina |last7=Mureb Sallum |first7=Maria Anice |title=Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios |doi=10.1186/s13071-015-1038-4 |pmid=26283539 |url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4539674/}}</ref> || {{w|South America}} || Gabriel Zorello Laporta, Yvonne-Marie Linton, Richard C. Wilkerson, Eduardo Sterlino Bergo, Sandra Sayuri Nagaki, Denise Cristina Sant’Ana, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum || August 2015
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| 2080 || || The number of people at risk of malaria around dams and associated reservoirs in {{w|Sub-Saharan Africa}} is expected to nearly double to about 25 million by this time.<ref>{{cite web |title=Dam-related malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa to almost double by 2080, UCI study finds |url=https://news.uci.edu/2016/09/08/uci-study-finds-malaria-risk-will-rise-around-dams-in-sub-saharan-africa/ |website=news.uci.edu |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Sub-Saharan Africa}} ||  CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land & Ecosystems || ~September 2016
 
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Revision as of 13:01, 10 November 2019

This is a speculative timeline of future malaria events, attempting to describe estimates of future events related to the malaria disease.

Big picture

Time period Development summary More details

Full timeline

Year Event type Details Location Predictor Date of prediction
2020 Diagnosis A diagnostic tool consisting in the first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to start field trials being rolled out in the Democratic Republic of Congo or Uganda in the second quarter of this year.[1] Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda
2021 Eradication Zambia aims to eliminate malaria by this year.[2] Zambia Ministry of Health June 27, 2018
2021 Diagnosis The world’s first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to be launched by this year by South Africa-based Erada Technology Alliance, in collaboration with international partners CellFree Sciences, Frontier Institute, Johns Hopkins University and Oasis Diagnostics.[1] Africa
2021 Treatment London based medical device company MediSieve aims to launch a magnetic blood filter intended to enable doctors to remove infected red blood cells from the bloodstream directly, thus reducing parasitaemia, which would result in the usage of fewer IV drugs while minimizing hospital time – leading to cost savings.[3] United Kingdom MediSieve ~2019
2040 Eradication Study finds that achieving malaria eradication by this year would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. It would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days.[4] Worldwide
2050 Eradication Global malaria eradication could be achieved by this time, according to a coalition of 41 leading scientists, economists and health-policy experts writing in the Lancet.[5][6][7] Worldwide
2050 Epidemic The World Health Organization’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.[8] Africa
2051–2080 Endemicity Temperature estimates for this period speculate that up to 96.5% of the territory of Germany could experience a 4–5 month transmission window for malaria.[9] Germany Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <2013
2070 Vector Members of the Anopheles albitarsis complex are expected to become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America by this time.[10] South America Gabriel Zorello Laporta, Yvonne-Marie Linton, Richard C. Wilkerson, Eduardo Sterlino Bergo, Sandra Sayuri Nagaki, Denise Cristina Sant’Ana, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum August 2015
2080 The number of people at risk of malaria around dams and associated reservoirs in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to nearly double to about 25 million by this time.[11] Sub-Saharan Africa CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land & Ecosystems ~September 2016

Meta information on the timeline

How the timeline was built

The initial version of the timeline was written by User:Sebastian.

Funding information for this timeline is available.

Feedback and comments

Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:

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What the timeline is still missing

Timeline update strategy

See also

External links

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 "Funding Aids Development of Saliva-based Diagnostic Tool in Bid to Rid World of Malaria". thejournalofmhealth.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  2. "Zambia aims to eradicate malaria by 2021: health minister". reuters.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  3. "World Malaria Day: Five latest devices to combat the spread of malaria". nsmedicaldevices.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  4. Willis, Derek W.; Hamon, Nick. "Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality". doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.12843.2. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  5. "It's 'Ambitious' — But Possible — to Eradicate Malaria by 2050, According to a Landmark Report". time.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  6. "Malaria Could be Eradicated By 2050, Global Health Experts Say". ucsf.edu. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  7. Mahase, Elisabeth. "Malaria could be eradicated by 2050, say global experts". doi:10.1136/bmj.l5501. 
  8. "Malaria Eradication Feasible by 2050, Says New Lancet Report". healthpolicy-watch.org. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  9. Schröder, Winfried; Schmidt, Gunther. Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures. 
  10. Zorello Laporta, Gabriel; Linton, Yvonne-Marie; Wilkerson, Richard C.; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino; Sayuri Nagaki, Sandra; Sant’Ana, Denise Cristina; Mureb Sallum, Maria Anice. "Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios". PMID 26283539. doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1038-4. 
  11. "Dam-related malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa to almost double by 2080, UCI study finds". news.uci.edu. Retrieved 10 November 2019.