Speculative timeline of future malaria events

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This is a speculative timeline of future malaria events, attempting to describe estimates of future events related to the malaria disease.

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Year Event type Details Location Predictor Type of prediction Date of prediction
2020 Eradication Costa Rica hopes to report zero indigenous malaria cases in this year.[1] Costa Rica Costa Rica Ministry of Health Project November, 2019
2020 Diagnosis A diagnostic tool consisting in the first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to start field trials being rolled out in the Democratic Republic of Congo or Uganda in the second quarter of this year.[2] Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda Project
2021 Eradication Zambia aims to eliminate malaria by this year.[3] Zambia Ministry of Health Project June 27, 2018
2021 Diagnosis The world’s first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to be launched by this year by South Africa-based Erada Technology Alliance, in collaboration with international partners CellFree Sciences, Frontier Institute, Johns Hopkins University and Oasis Diagnostics.[2] Africa Project
2021 Treatment London based medical device company MediSieve aims to launch a magnetic blood filter intended to enable doctors to remove infected red blood cells from the bloodstream directly, thus reducing parasitaemia, which would result in the usage of fewer IV drugs while minimizing hospital time – leading to cost savings.[4] United Kingdom MediSieve Project ~2019
2022 Eradication Costa Rica expects to eliminate malaria nationwide by this year.[1] Costa Rica Costa Rican Ministry of Health Project November, 2019
2022 Eradication The West Java administration aims to be malaria-free by this year.[5] Indonesia (West Java) West Java health agency Project May, 2019
2023 Eradication About 16 million lives are expected to be saved, and 234 million infections are expected to be averted by that year, after announcement by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria of having raised US$14.02 billion for its next three-year funding cycle.[6] Worldwide Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria Project October 10, 2019
2024 Vaccine The Global Malaria Vaccines Market, by Vaccine Type (Pre-Erythrocytic Vaccine, Erythrocytic Vaccine, Multi-antigen Vaccine), by Agent (Plasmodium Falciparum, Plasmodium Vivax), and by Distribution Channel (Hospitals, Clinics, Community Centers) is expected to be valued at US$ 50.6 million in this year.[7] Estimate August, 2019
2024 Vaccine RTS,S/AS01 (trade name Mosquirix) is expected to be marketed in this year.[7] Project August, 2019
2025 Vaccine The Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap expects to develop a malaria vaccine that would have a protective efficacy of more than 80% against clinical disease and would provide protection for longer than four years.[8] Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap Project December, 2006
2026 Vaccine The global malaria vaccines market is expected to reach US$ 134.9 million by this year.[9] Study May, 2019
2026 Vaccine The malaria vaccines market is expected to reach US$ 156.8 million by this year.[10] Polaris Market Research Study September, 2019
2030 Eradication Indonesia aims to become malaria-free by this year.[5] Indonesia Government of Indonesia Project 2008
2030 Eradication The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria expects to meet the Sustainable Development Goals target of ending AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria as epidemics by that year.[6] Worldwide Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria Project October 10, 2019
2040 Eradication Study finds that achieving malaria eradication by this year would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. It would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days.[11] Worldwide Study
2050 Eradication Global malaria eradication could be achieved by this time, according to a coalition of 41 leading scientists, economists and health-policy experts writing in the Lancet.[12][13][14] Worldwide Study
2050 Epidemic The World Health Organization’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.[15] Africa Study
2051–2080 Endemicity Temperature estimates for this period speculate that up to 96.5% of the territory of Germany could experience a 4–5 month transmission window for malaria.[16] Germany Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Study <2013
2070 Vector Members of the Anopheles albitarsis complex are expected to become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America by this time.[17] South America Gabriel Zorello Laporta, Yvonne-Marie Linton, Richard C. Wilkerson, Eduardo Sterlino Bergo, Sandra Sayuri Nagaki, Denise Cristina Sant’Ana, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum Study August 2015
2080 Epidemiology The number of people at risk of malaria around dams and associated reservoirs in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to nearly double to about 25 million by this time.[18] Sub-Saharan Africa CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land & Ecosystems Study ~September 2016

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The initial version of the timeline was written by User:Sebastian.

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References

  1. 1.0 1.1 "Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022". ticotimes.net. Retrieved 11 November 2019. 
  2. 2.0 2.1 "Funding Aids Development of Saliva-based Diagnostic Tool in Bid to Rid World of Malaria". thejournalofmhealth.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  3. "Zambia aims to eradicate malaria by 2021: health minister". reuters.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  4. "World Malaria Day: Five latest devices to combat the spread of malaria". nsmedicaldevices.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  5. 5.0 5.1 "West Java aims to be malaria-free by 2022". reliefweb.int. Retrieved 11 November 2019. 
  6. 6.0 6.1 "The RBM Partnership to End Malaria leads global malaria community in celebrating successful Global Fund replenishment". endmalaria.org. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  7. 7.0 7.1 "At 150.0% CAGR, Malaria Vaccines Market to Surge past US$ 790.7 Million by 2027". nbc29.com. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  8. "Global strategy aims for effective malaria vaccine by 2025". who.int. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  9. "At 33.2% CAGR, Malaria Vaccines Market Size Set to Register 134.9 million USD by 2026". marketwatch.com. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  10. "Malaria Vaccines Market Outlook 2018-2026 by Major Key Players Like GlaxoSmithKline, GenVec, Inc., Nobelpharma, and Sanaria others". marketwatch.com. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  11. Willis, Derek W.; Hamon, Nick. "Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality". doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.12843.2. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  12. "It's 'Ambitious' — But Possible — to Eradicate Malaria by 2050, According to a Landmark Report". time.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  13. "Malaria Could be Eradicated By 2050, Global Health Experts Say". ucsf.edu. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  14. Mahase, Elisabeth. "Malaria could be eradicated by 2050, say global experts". doi:10.1136/bmj.l5501. 
  15. "Malaria Eradication Feasible by 2050, Says New Lancet Report". healthpolicy-watch.org. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  16. Schröder, Winfried; Schmidt, Gunther. Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures. 
  17. Zorello Laporta, Gabriel; Linton, Yvonne-Marie; Wilkerson, Richard C.; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino; Sayuri Nagaki, Sandra; Sant’Ana, Denise Cristina; Mureb Sallum, Maria Anice. "Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios". PMID 26283539. doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1038-4. 
  18. "Dam-related malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa to almost double by 2080, UCI study finds". news.uci.edu. Retrieved 10 November 2019.