Timeline of AI safety

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This is a timeline of friendly artificial intelligence.

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Year Month and date Event type Details
1630–1650 Fictional portrayal The publication of the story of the Golem of Chełm dates to around this period. Wikipedia: "Golems are not intelligent, and if commanded to perform a task, they will perform the instructions literally. In many depictions Golems are inherently perfectly obedient. In its earliest known modern form, the Golem of Chełm became enormous and uncooperative. In one version of this story, the rabbi had to resort to trickery to deactivate it, whereupon it crumbled upon its creator and crushed him."
1818 Fictional portrayal The novel Frankenstein is published. Frankenstein pioneers the archetype of the artificial intelligence that turns against its creator, and is sometimes discussed in the context of an AI takeoff.[1][2][3]
1920 Fictional portrayal The science fiction play R.U.R. is published. The play introduces the word "robot" to the English language and the plot contains a robot rebellion that leads to human extinction.
1965 I. J. Good originates the concept of intelligence explosion in "Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine".
1942 March Fictional portrayal The Three Laws of Robotics are introduced by Isaac Asimov in his short story "Runaround".
1984 October 26 Fictional portrayal The American science fiction film The Terminator is released. The film contains the first appearance of Skynet, a "neural net-based conscious group mind and artificial general intelligence" that "seeks to exterminate the human race in order to fulfill the mandates of its original coding".
2000 April Bill Joy's article "Why The Future Doesn't Need Us" is published in Wired.
2000 July 27 Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) is founded as the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (SIAI) by Brian Atkins, Sabine Atkins (then Sabine Stoeckel) and Eliezer Yudkowsky. The organization's mission ("organization's primary exempt purpose" on Form 990) at the time is "Create a Friendly, self-improving Artificial Intelligence"; this mission would be in use during 2000–2006 and would change in 2007.[4]:3[5]
2002 March 8 AI box The first AI box experiment by Eliezer Yudkowsky, against Nathan Russell as gatekeeper, takes place. The AI is released.[6]
2002 July 4–5 AI box The second AI box experiment by Eliezer Yudkowsky, against David McFadzean as gatekeeper, takes place. The AI is released.[7]
2002 October 31 Bill Hibbard's Super-Intelligent Machines is published.[8]
2003 Nick Bostrom's paper "Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence" is published. The paper introduces the paperclip maximizer thought experiment.[9]
2005 The Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) is founded.[10]
2005 August 21 AI box The third AI box experiment by Eliezer Yudkowsky, against Carl Shulman as gatekeeper, takes place. The AI is released.[11]
2008 Steve Omohundro's paper "The Basic AI Drives" is published. The paper argues that certain drives, such as self-preservation and resource acquisition, will emerge in any sufficiently advanced AI. The idea would subsequently be defended by Nick Bostrom as part of his instrumental convergence thesis.[12]
2008 Global Catastrophic Risks is published. The book includes Eliezer Yudkowsky's chapter "Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk".[13]
2009 December 11 The third edition of Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach by Stuart J. Russell and Peter Norvig is published. In this edition, for the first time, Friendly AI is mentioned and Eliezer Yudkowsky is cited.
2010 DeepMind is founded by Demis Hassabis, Shane Legg, and Mustafa Suleyman.
2010 Vicarious is founded by Scott Phoenix and Dileep George. The company "has publicly expressed some concern about potential risks from future AI development" and the founders are signatories on the FLI open letter.[14]
2011 Baum, Goertzel, and Goertzel's "How Long Until Human-Level AI? Results from an Expert Assessment" is published.[15]
2011 The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI) is sounded by Seth Baum and Tony Barrett.[16]
2011 Google Brain is started by Jeff Dean, Greg Corrado, and Andrew Ng.
2011 September The Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology (FutureTech) launches.[17]
2013 Luke Muehlhauser's book Facing the Intelligence Explosion is published.[18]
2013 April 13 MIRI publishes an update on its strategy on its blog. In the blog post, MIRI executive director Luke Muehlhauser states that MIRI plans to put less effort into public outreach and shift its research to Friendly AI math research.[19]
2013 July The Center for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) launches.[20][21]
2013 July The Foundational Research Institute (FRI) is founded. Some of FRI's work discusses risks from artificial intelligence.[22]
2013 October 1 Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era by James Barrat is published. The book discusses risks from human-level of superhuman artificial intelligence.
2014 Müller and Bostrom's "Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion" is published.[23]
2014 January 26 Google announces that it has acquired DeepMind.
2014 March–May Future of Life Institute (FLI) is founded.[24]
2014 July–September Nick Bostrom's book Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies is published.
2014 August Project The AI Impacts website launches.[25]
2014 Fall The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100) launches.[26]
2014 October 22–24 During an interview at the AeroAstro Centennial Symposium, Elon Musk calls artificial intelligence humanity's "biggest existential threat".[27][28]
2014 December 2 In an interview with BBC, Stephen Hawking states that advanced artificial intelligence could end the human race.[29]
2015 Daniel Dewey joins the Open Philanthropy Project.[30] He begins as or would become Open Phil's program officer for potential risks from advanced artificial intelligence.
2015 The Strategic Artificial Intelligence Research Centre launches around this time.[31][14]
2015 January The Open Letter on Artificial Intelligence, titled "Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence: an Open Letter", is published.
2015 January 28 During an "ask me anything" (AMA) session on reddit, Bill Gates states his concern about artificial superintelligence.[32][33]
2015 January 2–5 Conference The Future of AI: Opportunities and Challenges, an AI safety conference, takes place in Puerto Rico. The conference is organized by the Future of Life Institute.[34] Nate Soares of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute would later call this the "turning point" of when top academics begin to focus on AI risk.[35]
2015 January 22–27 Tim Urban publishes on Wait But Why a two-part series of blog posts about superhuman AI.[36][37]
2015 February 25 Sam Altman, president of Y Combinator, publishes a blog post in which he writes that the development of superhuman AI is "probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity".[38]
2015 June 4 At Airbnb's Open Air 2015 conference, Sam Altman, president of Y Combinator, states his concern for advanced artificial intelligence and shares that he recently invested in a company doing AI safety research.[39]
2015 July 1 The Future of Life Institute's Grant Recommendations for its first round of AI safety grants are publicly announced. The grants would be disbursed on September 1.[40][41][42]
2015 August The Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $1.2 million to the Future of Life Institute.[43]
2015 August The Open Philanthropy Project publishes its cause report on potential risks from advanced artificial intelligence.[44]
2015 October The Open Philanthropy Project first publishes its page on AI timelines.[45]
2015 December The Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence launches around this time.[46]
2015 December 11 OpenAI is announced to the public. (The news articles from this period make it sound like OpenAI launched sometime after this date.)[47][48]
2016 April 7 80,000 Hours releases a new "problem profile" for risks from artificial intelligence, titled "Risks posed by artificial intelligence".[49][50]
2016 May Luke Muehlhauser of the Open Philanthropy Project publishes "What should we learn from past AI forecasts?".[51]
2016 May 6 Holden Karnofsky of the Open Philanthropy Project publishes a blog post on why Open Phil is making potential risks from artificial intelligence a major priority for the year.[52]
2016 May 6 Holden Karnofsky of the Open Philanthropy Project publishes "Some Background on Our Views Regarding Advanced Artificial Intelligence" on the Open Phil blog.[53]
2016 June The Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $264,525 to George Mason University for work by Robin Hanson.[43]
2016 June 21 "Concrete Problems in AI Safety" is submitted to the arXiv.[54]
2016 August The UC Berkeley Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence launches. The focus of the center is "to ensure that AI systems are beneficial to humans".[55]
2016 August The Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $5.6 million to the Center for Human-Compatible AI.[43]
2016 August The Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $500,000 to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.[43]
2016 September 28 The Partnership on AI is publicly announced.
2016 November The Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $199,000 to the Electronic Frontier Foundation for work by Peter Eckersley.[43]
2016 December The Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $32,000 to AI Impacts for work on strategic questions related to potential risks from advanced artificial intelligence.[43]
2016 December 3, 12 A couple of posts are published on LessWrong by Center for Applied Rationality (CFAR) president Anna Salamon. The posts discuss CFAR's new focus on AI safety.[56][57]
2017 February 9 The Effective Altruism Funds (EA Funds) is announced on the Effective Altruism Forum. EA Funds includes a Long-Term Future Fund that is partly intended to support "priorities for robust and beneficial artificial intelligence".[58][59]
2017 March The Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $2.0 million to the Future of Humanity Institute for general support.[43]
2017 March The Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30 million to OpenAI for general support.[43]
2017 April The Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative (BERI) launches around this time to assist researchers working at institutions working to mitigate existential risk, including AI risk.[60][61]
2017 April 6 80,000 Hours publishes an article about the pros and cons of working on AI safety, titled "Positively shaping the development of artificial intelligence".[62][63]
2017 May The Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $1.5 million to the UCLA School of Law for work on governance related to AI risk.[43]
2017 May 24 Publication "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts" is published on the arXiv.[64] Two researchers from AI Impacts are authors on the paper.[65]
2017 June 14 80,000 Hours publishes a guide to working in AI policy and strategy, written by Miles Brundage.[66]
2017 July The Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $2.4 million to the Montreal Institute for Learning Algorithms.[43]
2017 July 23 During a Facebook Live broadcast from his backyard, Mark Zuckerberg reveals that he is "optimistic" about advanced artificial intelligence and that spreading concern about "doomsday scenarios" is "really negative and in some ways […] pretty irresponsible".[67]

Meta information on the timeline

How the timeline was built

The initial version of the timeline was written by Issa Rice.

Issa likes to work locally and track changes with Git, so the revision history on this wiki only shows changes in bulk. To see more incremental changes, refer to the commit history.

Funding information for this timeline is available.

What the timeline is still missing

Timeline update strategy

See also

External links

References

  1. Michael Nuschke (October 10, 2011). "Seven Ways Frankenstein Relates to Singularity". RetirementSingularity.com. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  2. Mitchell Howe (2002). "What is the intellectual history of the Singularity concept?". Retrieved July 27, 2017. Bearing little resemblance to the campy motion pictures he would inspire, Dr. Frankenstein's monster was a highly intelligent being of great emotional depth, but who could not be loved because of his hideous appearance; for this, he vowed to take revenge on his creator. The monster actually comes across as the most intelligent character in the novel, making Frankenstein perhaps the first work to touch on the core idea of the Singularity. 
  3. Alan Winfield (August 9, 2014). "Artificial Intelligence will not turn into a Frankenstein monster". The Guardian. Retrieved July 27, 2017. From the Golem to Frankenstein's monster, Skynet and the Matrix, we are fascinated by the old story: man plays god and then things go horribly wrong. 
  4. "Form 990-EZ 2000" (PDF). Retrieved June 1, 2017. Organization was incorporated in July 2000 and does not have a financial history for years 1996-1999. 
  5. "About the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence". Retrieved July 1, 2017. The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Inc. (SIAI) was incorporated on July 27th, 2000 by Brian Atkins, Sabine Atkins (then Sabine Stoeckel) and Eliezer Yudkowsky. The Singularity Institute is a nonprofit corporation governed by the Georgia Nonprofit Corporation Code, and is federally tax-exempt as a 501(c)(3) public charity. At this time, the Singularity Institute is funded solely by individual donors. 
  6. "SL4: By Thread". Retrieved July 1, 2017. 
  7. "SL4: By Thread". Retrieved July 1, 2017. 
  8. "Amazon.com: Super-Intelligent Machines (Ifsr International Series on Systems Science and Engineering) (9780306473883): Bill Hibbard: Books". Retrieved July 26, 2017. Publisher: Springer; 2002 edition (October 31, 2002) 
  9. "Ethical Issues In Advanced Artificial Intelligence". Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  10. "About". Oxford Martin School. Retrieved July 25, 2017. The Future of Humanity Institute was established in 2005 with funding from the Oxford Martin School (then known as the James Martin 21st Century School). 
  11. "SL4: By Thread". Retrieved July 1, 2017. 
  12. "Basic AI drives". Lesswrongwiki. LessWrong. Retrieved July 26, 2017. 
  13. "AIPosNegFactor.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  14. 14.0 14.1 "Landscape of current work on potential risks from advanced AI". Google Docs. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  15. "How Long Untill Human-Level AI - 2011_AI-Experts.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved July 28, 2017. 
  16. "About". Global Catastrophic Risk Institute. Retrieved July 26, 2017. The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank. GCRI was founded in 2011 by Seth Baum and Tony Barrett. 
  17. "Welcome". Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology. Retrieved July 26, 2017. The Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, launched in September 2011, is an interdisciplinary horizontal Programme within the Oxford Martin School in collaboration with the Faculty of Philosophy at Oxford University. 
  18. "About". Facing the Intelligence Explosion. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  19. Luke Muehlhauser (December 11, 2013). "MIRI's Strategy for 2013". Machine Intelligence Research Institute. Retrieved July 6, 2017. 
  20. Sylvia Hui (November 25, 2012). "Cambridge to study technology's risk to humans". Retrieved July 26, 2017. The university said Sunday the center's launch is planned next year. 
  21. "Centre for the Study of Existential Risk". 
  22. "Transparency". Foundational Research Institute. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  23. "Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion - survey.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved July 28, 2017. 
  24. Victoria Krakovna. "New organization - Future of Life Institute (FLI)". LessWrong. Retrieved July 6, 2017. As of May 2014, there is an existential risk research and outreach organization based in the Boston area. The Future of Life Institute (FLI), spearheaded by Max Tegmark, was co-founded by Jaan Tallinn, Meia Chita-Tegmark, Anthony Aguirre and myself. 
  25. "MIRI's September Newsletter". Machine Intelligence Research Institute. September 1, 2014. Retrieved July 15, 2017. Paul Christiano and Katja Grace have launched a new website containing many analyses related to the long-term future of AI: AI Impacts. 
  26. Peter Stone; et al. (AI100 Standing Committee and Study Panel) (September 2016). "One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence: Report of the 2015-2016 Study Panel" (PDF). Retrieved July 27, 2017. The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence, launched in the fall of 2014, is a longterm investigation of the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its influences on people, their communities, and society. 
  27. Samuel Gibbs (October 27, 2014). "Elon Musk: artificial intelligence is our biggest existential threat". The Guardian. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  28. "AeroAstro Centennial Webcast". Retrieved July 25, 2017. The high point of the MIT Aeronautics and Astronautics Department's 2014 Centennial celebration is the October 22-24 Centennial Symposium 
  29. "Stephen Hawking warns artificial intelligence could end mankind". BBC News. December 2, 2014. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  30. "Daniel Dewey". Open Philanthropy Project. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  31. Future of Humanity Institute - FHI. "Strategic Artificial Intelligence Research Centre - Future of Humanity Institute". Future of Humanity Institute. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  32. "Hi Reddit, I'm Bill Gates and I'm back for my third AMA. Ask me anything. • r/IAmA". reddit. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  33. Stuart Dredge (January 29, 2015). "Artificial intelligence will become strong enough to be a concern, says Bill Gates". The Guardian. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  34. "AI safety conference in Puerto Rico". Future of Life Institute. October 12, 2015. Retrieved July 13, 2017. 
  35. Nate Soares (July 16, 2015). "An Astounding Year". Machine Intelligence Research Institute. Retrieved July 13, 2017. 
  36. "The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 1". Wait But Why. January 22, 2017. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  37. "The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 2". Wait But Why. January 27, 2015. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  38. "Machine intelligence, part 1". Sam Altman. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  39. Matt Weinberger (June 4, 2015). "Head of Silicon Valley's most important startup farm says we're in a 'mega bubble' that won't last". Business Insider. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  40. "Grants Timeline - Future of Life Institute". Future of Life Institute. Retrieved July 13, 2017. 
  41. "New International Grants Program Jump-Starts Research to Ensure AI Remains Beneficial: Press release for FLI grant awardees. - Future of Life Institute". Future of Life Institute. Retrieved July 13, 2017. 
  42. "AI Safety Research - Future of Life Institute". Future of Life Institute. Retrieved July 13, 2017. 
  43. 43.0 43.1 43.2 43.3 43.4 43.5 43.6 43.7 43.8 43.9 "Open Philanthropy Project donations made (filtered to cause areas matching AI risk)". Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  44. "Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence". Open Philanthropy Project. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  45. "What Do We Know about AI Timelines?". Open Philanthropy Project. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  46. "The future of intelligence: Cambridge University launches new centre to study AI and the future of humanity". University of Cambridge. December 3, 2015. Retrieved July 26, 2017. 
  47. John Markoff (December 11, 2015). "Artificial-Intelligence Research Center Is Founded by Silicon Valley Investors". The New York Times. Retrieved July 26, 2017. The organization, to be named OpenAI, will be established as a nonprofit, and will be based in San Francisco. 
  48. "Introducing OpenAI". OpenAI Blog. December 11, 2015. Retrieved July 26, 2017. 
  49. "How and why to use your career to make artificial intelligence safer". 80,000 Hours. April 7, 2016. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  50. "Risks posed by artificial intelligence". 80,000 Hours. 
  51. "What should we learn from past AI forecasts?". Open Philanthropy Project. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  52. "Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence: The Philanthropic Opportunity". Open Philanthropy Project. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  53. "Some Background on Our Views Regarding Advanced Artificial Intelligence". Open Philanthropy Project. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  54. "[1606.06565] Concrete Problems in AI Safety". June 21, 2016. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  55. "UC Berkeley launches Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence". Berkeley News. August 29, 2016. Retrieved July 26, 2017. 
  56. "CFAR's new focus, and AI Safety - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved July 13, 2017. 
  57. "Further discussion of CFAR's focus on AI safety, and the good things folks wanted from "cause neutrality" - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved July 13, 2017. 
  58. "EA Funds". Retrieved July 27, 2017. In the biography on the right you can see a list of organizations the Fund Manager has previously supported, including a wide variety of organizations such as the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, Future of Life Institute and the Center for Applied Rationality. These organizations vary in their strategies for improving the long-term future but are likely to include activities such as research into possible existential risks and their mitigation, and priorities for robust and beneficial artificial intelligence. 
  59. William MacAskill (February 9, 2017). "Introducing the EA Funds". Effective Altruism Forum. Retrieved July 27, 2017. 
  60. "May 2017 Newsletter". Machine Intelligence Research Institute. May 10, 2017. Retrieved July 25, 2017. Interested parties may also wish to apply for the event coordinator position at the new Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative, which will help support work at CHAI and elsewhere. 
  61. "Update on Effective Altruism Funds". Effective Altruism Forum. April 20, 2017. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  62. "Positively shaping the development of artificial intelligence". 80,000 Hours. Retrieved July 25, 2017. 
  63. "Completely new article on the pros/cons of working on AI safety, and how to actually go about it". April 6, 2017. 
  64. "[1705.08807] When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts". Retrieved July 13, 2017. 
  65. "Media discussion of 2016 ESPAI". AI Impacts. June 14, 2017. Retrieved July 13, 2017. 
  66. "New in-depth guide to AI policy and strategy careers, written with Miles Brundage, a researcher at the University of Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute". 80,000 Hours. June 14, 2017. 
  67. Catherine Clifford (July 24, 2017). "Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg: Elon Musk's doomsday AI predictions are 'pretty irresponsible'". CNBC. Retrieved July 25, 2017.