Timeline of cognitive biases

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This is a timeline of cognitive biases.

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Year Event type Details
1747 "Lind conducted the first systematic clinical trial in 1747."[1]
1753 Anthropomorphism is first attested, originally in reference to the heresy of applying a human form to the Christian God.[2]}}[3]
1776–1799 The declinism belief is traced back to Edward Gibbon's work,[4] The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, published between 1776 and 1788, where Gibbon argues that Rome collapsed due to the gradual loss of civic virtue among its citizens,[5]
1796 Gambler's fallacy. Pierre-Simon Laplace describes in A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities the ways in which men calculate their probability of having sons: "I have seen men, ardently desirous of having a son, who could learn only with anxiety of the births of boys in the month when they expected to become fathers. Imagining that the ratio of these births to those of girls ought to be the same at the end of each month, they judged that the boys already born would render more probable the births next of girls." The expectant fathers feared that if more sons were born in the surrounding community, then they themselves would be more likely to have a daughter. This essay by Laplace is regarded as one of the earliest descriptions of the fallacy.[6]
1848 Bandwagon effect "The phrase "jump on the bandwagon" first appeared in American politics in 1848 when Dan Rice, a famous and popular circus clown of the time, used his bandwagon and its music to gain attention for his political campaign appearances. As his campaign became more successful, other politicians strove for a seat on the bandwagon, hoping to be associated with his success. Later, during the time of William Jennings Bryan's 1900 presidential campaign, bandwagons had become standard in campaigns,[7] and the phrase "jump on the bandwagon" was used as a derogatory term, implying that people were associating themselves with success without considering that with which they associated themselves."
1882 "The specious present is the time duration wherein a state of {{w|consciousness]] is experienced as being in the present.[8] The term was first introduced by the philosopher E. R. Clay in 1882 (E. Robert Kelly),[9][10]
1906 "The first known use of bandwagon effect was in 1906"[11]
1913 The term "Monte Carlo fallacy" originates from the best known example of the phenomenon, which occurs in the Monte Carlo Casino.[12]
1920 "First coined back in 1920, the halo effect describes how our impression of a person forms a halo around our conception of their character." "The term was coined by psychologist Edwin Thorndike in 1920."[13][14]
1927 Russian psychologist Bluma Zeigarnik publishes in the journal Psychologische Forschung a report on a series of experiments uncovering the processes underlying the phenomenon later called Zeigarnik effect.[15]
1930 The specious present is further developed by William James.[10] "James defined the specious present to be "the prototype of all conceived times... the short duration of which we are immediately and incessantly sensible". In "Scientific Thought" (1930), C. D. Broad further elaborated on the concept of the specious present and considered that the specious present may be considered as the temporal equivalent of a sensory datum.[10]
1945 Karl Duncker defines functional fixedness as being a "mental block against using an object in a new way that is required to solve a problem".[16]
1946 " In 1946, Berkson first illustrated the presence of a false correlation due to this last reason, which is known as Berkson's paradox and is one of the most famous paradox in probability and statistics."[17]
1954 The Social comparison theory is initially proposed by social psychologist Leon Festinger. It centers on the belief that there is a drive within individuals to gain accurate self-evaluations.[18]
1956 The term "Barnum effect" is coined by psychologist Paul Meehl in his essay Wanted – A Good Cookbook, because he relates the vague personality descriptions used in certain "pseudo-successful" psychological tests to those given by showman P. T. Barnum.[19][20]
1960 English psychhologist Peter Wason first describes the confirmation bias.[21][22][23]
1960 "The classic example of subjects' congruence bias was discovered by Peter Cathcart Wason"
1961 Ambiguity effect is first described by Daniel Ellsberg.[24]
1967 "Chapman (1967) described a bias in the judgment of the frequency with which two events co-occur. This demonstration showed that the co-occurrence of paired stimuli resulted in participants overestimating the frequency of the pairings." ""Illusory correlation" was originally coined by Chapman and Chapman (1967) to describe people's tendencies to overestimate relationships between two groups when distinctive and unusual information is presented.[25]"[26]
1968 The conservatism (belief revision) bias is discussed by Ward Edwards.[27]
1969 Researchers confirm the Ben Franklin effect.[28]
1971 Lichtenstein and Slovic study and experiment on the preference reversal inconsistency.[29]
1973 Hindsight bias. Baruch Fischhoff attends a seminar where Paul E. Meehl states an observation that clinicians often overestimate their ability to have foreseen the outcome of a particular case, as they claim to have known it all along.[30]
1973 The illusion of validity bias is first described by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in their paper.
1974 " One of the common heuristics used when making judgements is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, first described in 1974 (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). In this heuristic, when people estimate an unknown quantity (say, the length of the average American commute) they begin with an ‘anchor’ of information they do know (say, their own commute) and adjust until an acceptable value is reached. This anchor could be based on information given to a person (such as the advertised price of new car before bargaining) or it could be drawn from personal experience (the price a friend paid for a new car)."[31]
1975 "In 1975, psychologist Stanley Smith Stevens proposed that the strength of a stimulus (e.g., the brightness of a light, the severity of a crime) is encoded neurally in a way that is independent of modality. Kahneman and Frederick built on this idea, arguing that the target attribute and heuristic attribute could be unrelated."[32]
1977 The illusory truth effect is first identified in a study at Villanova University and Temple University.[33][34]
1979 "In 1979, professor of psychology and author Charles G. Lord sought answers[1] as to whether we might overcome the Bacon principle, or whether humans are always held hostage to their initial beliefs even in the face of compelling and contradictory evidence."
1985 The disposition effect anomaly is identified and named by Hersh Shefrin and Meir Statman. In their study, Shefrin and Statman note that "people dislike incurring losses much more than they enjoy making gains, and people are willing to gamble in the domain of losses." Consequently, "investors will hold onto stocks that have lost value...and will be eager to sell stocks that have risen in value." The researchers coined the term "disposition effect" to describe this tendency of holding on to losing stocks too long and to sell off well-performing stocks too readily. Shefrin colloquially described this as a "predisposition toward get-evenitis." John R. Nofsinger has called this sort of investment behavior as a product of the desire to avoid regret and seek pride.[35]
1985 The hot-hand fallacy is first described in a paper by Amos Tversky, Thomas Gilovich, and Robert Vallone.
1989 The term "curse of knowledge" is coined in a Journal of Political Economy article by economists Colin Camerer, George Loewenstein, and Martin Weber.
1990 Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler publish a paper containing the first experimental test of the Endowment Effect.[29]
1995 "Implicit bias was first described in a 1995 publication by Tony Greenwald and Mahzarin Banaji"[36]
1996 Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky argue that cognitive biases have efficient practical implications for areas including clinical judgment, entrepreneurship, finance, and management.[37][38]
1998 Experiment Impact bias. "In Gilbert et al., 1998, there was a conducted study on individuals participating in a job interview. The participants were separated into two groups; the unfair decision condition (where the decision of being hired was left up to a single MBA student with sole authority listening to the interview) and the fair decision condition (where the decision was made by a team of MBA students who had to independently and unanimously decide the fate of the interviewee). Then, certain participants were chosen to forecast how they would feel if they were chosen or not chosen for the job immediately after learning if they had been hired or fired and then they had to predict how they would feel ten minutes after hearing the news. Then following the interview, all participants were given letters notifying them they had not been selected for the job. All participants were then required to fill out a questionnaire that reported their current happiness. Then after waiting ten minutes, the experimenter presented all the participants with another questionnaire that once again asked them to report their current level of happiness."
1999 Concept introduction The psychological phenomenon of illusory superiority known as Dunning–Kruger effect is identified as a form of cognitive bias in Kruger and Dunning's 1999 study, Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments.[39]
2002 Concept introduction "In a 2002 revision of the theory, Kahneman and Shane Frederick proposed attribute substitution as a process underlying these and other effects."[32]
2002 Research Bystander effect. Research indicates that priming a social context may inhibit helping behavior. Imagining being around one other person or being around a group of people can affect a person's willingness to help.[40]
2004 "One of the most common anchors is personal experience, which is the basis of ego-centric decision-making. Estimating the behaviors, attitudes and thoughts of other people is complex and effortful; anchoring and adjustment makes this process simpler by substituting one’s own perspective and adjusting until a reasonable estimate has been achieved (Epley et al., 2004). "[31]
2004 The concept of the distinction bias is advanced by Christopher K. Hsee and Jiao Zhang of the University of Chicago as an explanation for differences in evaluations of options between joint evaluation mode and separate evaluation mode.
2006 "Overcoming Bias began in November ’06 as a group blog on the general theme of how to move our beliefs closer to reality, in the face of our natural biases such as overconfidence and wishful thinking, and our bias to believe we have corrected for such biases, when we have done no such thing."[41]
2009 The concept of denomination effect is proposed by Priya Raghubir, professor at the New York University Stern School of Business, and Joydeep Srivastava, professor at University of Maryland, in their paper.[42]
2011 The IKEA effect is identified and named by Michael I. Norton of Harvard Business School, Daniel Mochon of Yale, and Dan Ariely of Duke University, who publish the results of three studies in this year.
2011 "Cognitive Bias: The Google Effect. Also known as “digital amnesia”, the aptly named Google Effect describes our tendency to forget information that can be easily accessed online. First described in 2011 by Betsy Sparrow (Columbia University) and her colleagues, their paper described the results of several memory experiments involving technology."[43]
2013 The term “End of History Illusion” originates in a journal article by psychologists Jordi Quoidbach, Daniel Gilbert, and Timothy Wilson detailing their research on the phenomenon and leveraging the phrase coined by Francis Fukuyama's 1992 book of the same name.[44]

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References

  1. Carlisle, Rodney (2004). Scientific American Inventions and Discoveries, John Wiley & Songs, Inc., New Jersey. p. 393. Template:Isbn.
  2. Chambers's Cyclopædia, Supplement, 1753 
  3. Oxford English Dictionary, 1st ed. "anthropomorphism, n." Oxford University Press (Oxford), 1885.
  4. Miller, Laura (2015-06-14). "Culture is dead — again". Salon. Retrieved 17 April 2018. 
  5. J.G.A. Pocock, "Between Machiavelli and Hume: Gibbon as Civic Humanist and Philosophical Historian," Daedalus 105:3 (1976), 153–169; and in Further reading: Pocock, EEG, 303–304; FDF, 304–306.
  6. Barron, Greg; Leider, Stephen (13 October 2009). "The role of experience in the Gambler's Fallacy" (PDF). Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 
  7. "Bandwagon Effect". Retrieved 2007-03-09. 
  8. James W (1893). The principles of psychology. New York: H. Holt and Company. p. 609. 
  9. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named kelly
  10. 10.0 10.1 10.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'Module:Citation/CS1/Suggestions' not found.
  11. "bandwagon effect". merriam-webster.com. Retrieved 7 April 2020. 
  12. "Why we gamble like monkeys". BBC.com. 2015-01-02. 
  13. "This Cognitive Bias Explains Why Pretty People Make 12% More Money Than Everybody Else". businessinsider.com. Retrieved 6 April 2020. 
  14. "What Is the Halo Effect?". psychologytoday.com. Retrieved 6 April 2020. 
  15. Zeigarnik 1927: "Das Behalten erledigter und unerledigter Handlungen". Psychologische Forschung 9, 1-85.
  16. Duncker, K. (1945). "On problem solving". Psychological Monographs, 58:5 (Whole No. 270).
  17. Batsidis, Apostolos; Tzavelas, George; Alexopoulos, Panagiotis. "Berkson's paradox and weighted distributions: An application to Alzheimer's disease". doi:10.1002/bimj.201900046. 
  18. Festinger L (1954). "A theory of social comparison processes". Human Relations. 7 (2): 117–140. doi:10.1177/001872675400700202. 
  19. Meehl, Paul E. (1956). "Wanted – A Good Cookbook". American Psychologist. 11 (6): 263–272. doi:10.1037/h0044164. 
  20. Dutton, D. L. (1988). "The cold reading technique". Experientia. 44 (4): 326–332. PMID 3360083. doi:10.1007/BF01961271. 
  21. "The Curious Case of Confirmation Bias". psychologytoday.com. Retrieved 7 April 2020. 
  22. Acks, Alex. The Bubble of Confirmation Bias. 
  23. Myers, David G. Psychology. 
  24. Borcherding, Katrin; Laričev, Oleg Ivanovič; Messick, David M. (1990). Contemporary Issues in Decision Making. North-Holland. p. 50. ISBN 978-0-444-88618-7. 
  25. Chapman, L (1967). "Illusory correlation in observational report". Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior. 6 (1): 151–155. doi:10.1016/S0022-5371(67)80066-5. 
  26. Chapman, L.J (1967). "Illusory correlation in observational report". Journal of Verbal Learning. 6: 151–155. doi:10.1016/s0022-5371(67)80066-5. 
  27. Edwards, Ward. "Conservatism in Human Information Processing (excerpted)". In Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic and Amos Tversky. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. New York: Cambridge University Press. Template:ISBN Original work published 1968.
  28. "To Become Super-Likable, Practice "The Ben Franklin Effect"". medium.com. Retrieved 13 March 2020. 
  29. 29.0 29.1 Atladóttir, Kristín. "The Endowment Effect and other biases in creative goods transactions" (PDF). ISSN 1670-8288. 
  30. Fischhoff, B (2007). "An early history of hindsight research". Social Cognition. 25: 10–13. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.365.6826Freely accessible. doi:10.1521/soco.2007.25.1.10. 
  31. 31.0 31.1 Ralph, Kelcie; Delbosc, Alexa. [One of the common heuristics used when making judgements is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, first described in 1974 (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). In this heuristic, when people estimate an unknown quantity (say, the length of the average American commute) they begin with an ‘anchor’ of information they do know (say, their own commute) and adjust until an acceptable value is reached. This anchor could be based on information given to a person (such as the advertised price of new car before bargaining) or it could be drawn from personal experience (the price a friend paid for a new car). "I'm multimodal, aren't you? How ego-centric anchoring biases experts' perceptions of travel patterns"] Check |url= value (help). doi:10.1016/j.tra.2017.04.027. 
  32. 32.0 32.1 Kahneman, Daniel; Frederick, Shane (2002). "Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment". In Thomas Gilovich; Dale Griffin; Daniel Kahneman. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 49–81. ISBN 978-0-521-79679-8. OCLC 47364085. 
  33. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'Module:Citation/CS1/Suggestions' not found.
  34. Newman, Eryn J.; Sanson, Mevagh; Miller, Emily K.; Quigley-Mcbride, Adele; Foster, Jeffrey L.; Bernstein, Daniel M.; Garry, Maryanne (September 6, 2014). "People with Easier to Pronounce Names Promote Truthiness of Claims". PLOS ONE. 9 (2): e88671. Bibcode:2014PLoSO...988671N. PMC 3935838Freely accessible. PMID 24586368. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0088671. 
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  38. S.X. Zhang; J. Cueto (2015). "The Study of Bias in Entrepreneurship". Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice. 41 (3): 419–454. doi:10.1111/etap.12212. 
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  41. "Overcoming Bias". overcomingbias.com. Retrieved 13 March 2020. 
  42. "Why We Spend Coins Faster Than Bills". NPR. May 12, 2009. Retrieved 7 April 2020. 
  43. "Marketers Need To Be Aware Of Cognitive Bias". thecustomer.net. Retrieved 12 March 2020. 
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