Difference between revisions of "Timeline of decision theory"
From Timelines
| Line 24: | Line 24: | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 2006 || {{dts|May 5}} || || {{w|Gary Drescher}}'s ''Good and Real'' is published.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.amazon.com/Good-Real-Demystifying-Paradoxes-Physics/dp/0262042339 |title=Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics (MIT Press): Gary L. Drescher: 9780262042338: Amazon.com: Books |accessdate=September 10, 2017}}</ref> | | 2006 || {{dts|May 5}} || || {{w|Gary Drescher}}'s ''Good and Real'' is published.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.amazon.com/Good-Real-Demystifying-Paradoxes-Physics/dp/0262042339 |title=Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics (MIT Press): Gary L. Drescher: 9780262042338: Amazon.com: Books |accessdate=September 10, 2017}}</ref> | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 2007 || || || The Smoking Lesion problem is introduced by Andy Egan?<ref>{{cite web |url=https://philpapers.org/rec/EGASCT |title=Andy Egan, Some counterexamples to causal decision theory |publisher=PhilPapers |accessdate=September 10, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Smoking_lesion |title=Smoking lesion - Lesswrongwiki |accessdate=September 10, 2017 |publisher=[[wikipedia:LessWrong|LessWrong]]}}</ref> | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 2007 || {{dts|May 30}} || || Philosopher Kenny Easwaran blogs about his discussions with Joshua Von Korff. Korff has apparently devised a decision-theoretic protocol that one-boxes on Newcomb's problem but smokes in the Smoking Lesion problem. The post does not make clear when Korff came up with his ideas or whether he wrote them up anywhere.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://tar.weatherson.org/2007/05/30/different-ideas-about-newcomb-cases/ |publisher=Thoughts Arguments and Rants |title=Different Ideas About Newcomb Cases |date=May 30, 2007 |accessdate=September 10, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://lesswrong.com/lw/3l/counterfactual_mugging/97kw |title=CarlShulman comments on Counterfactual Mugging |date=June 21, 2013 |accessdate=September 10, 2017 |publisher=[[wikipedia:LessWrong|LessWrong]]}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 2009 || {{dts|February}} || Project || Eliezer Yudkowsky starts LessWrong using as seed material his posts on Overcoming Bias.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/FAQ#Where_did_Less_Wrong_come_from.3F |title=FAQ - Lesswrongwiki |accessdate=June 1, 2017 |publisher=[[wikipedia:LessWrong|LessWrong]]}}</ref> During the following years LessWrong would become the locus of discussion about timeless/updateless decision theory. | | 2009 || {{dts|February}} || Project || Eliezer Yudkowsky starts LessWrong using as seed material his posts on Overcoming Bias.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/FAQ#Where_did_Less_Wrong_come_from.3F |title=FAQ - Lesswrongwiki |accessdate=June 1, 2017 |publisher=[[wikipedia:LessWrong|LessWrong]]}}</ref> During the following years LessWrong would become the locus of discussion about timeless/updateless decision theory. | ||
Revision as of 23:27, 9 September 2017
This is a timeline of decision theory, with a focus on updateless/timeless/acausal decision theories.
Contents
Big picture
| Time period | Development summary | More details |
|---|
Full timeline
| Year | Month and date | Event type | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1969 | Newcomb's problem is discussed by Robert Nozick. | ||
| 1985 | The idea of superrationality is introduced by Douglas Hofstadter in his Metamagical Themas. | ||
| 1997 | The Sleeping Beauty problem is first formally analyzed. | ||
| 1997 | The absent-minded driver problem is introduced (in the same paper as the sleeping beauty?).[1][2] | ||
| 2002 | July 17 | Hal Finney, in a mailing list discussion, brings up ideas that according to Wei Dai "came pretty close to some of the ideas behind TDT".[3][4] | |
| 2006 | May 5 | Gary Drescher's Good and Real is published.[5] | |
| 2007 | The Smoking Lesion problem is introduced by Andy Egan?[6][7] | ||
| 2007 | May 30 | Philosopher Kenny Easwaran blogs about his discussions with Joshua Von Korff. Korff has apparently devised a decision-theoretic protocol that one-boxes on Newcomb's problem but smokes in the Smoking Lesion problem. The post does not make clear when Korff came up with his ideas or whether he wrote them up anywhere.[8][9] | |
| 2009 | February | Project | Eliezer Yudkowsky starts LessWrong using as seed material his posts on Overcoming Bias.[10] During the following years LessWrong would become the locus of discussion about timeless/updateless decision theory. |
| 2009 | August 20 | Gary Drescher proposes Metacircular Decision Theory (MCDT) in a comment on LessWrong.[11] | |
| 2010 | Timeless decision theory is published in paper form by Eliezer Yudkowsky.[12] | ||
| 2017 | March 18 | "Cheating Death in Damascus" by Nate Soares and Ben Levinstein is announced on the Machine Intelligence Research Institute blog.[13][14] |
Meta information on the timeline
How the timeline was built
The initial version of the timeline was written by Issa Rice.
What the timeline is still missing
Timeline update strategy
See also
- Timeline of Machine Intelligence Research Institute
- Timeline of Center for Applied Rationality
- Timeline of friendly artificial intelligence
External links
References
- ↑ "The Absent-Minded Driver". LessWrong. September 16, 2009. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ "Absent-Minded driver - Lesswrongwiki". LessWrong. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ "Wei_Dai comments on Common mistakes people make when thinking about decision theory - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ Finney, Hal (July 17, 2002). "self-sampling assumption is incorrect". Google Groups. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ "Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics (MIT Press): Gary L. Drescher: 9780262042338: Amazon.com: Books". Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ "Andy Egan, Some counterexamples to causal decision theory". PhilPapers. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ "Smoking lesion - Lesswrongwiki". LessWrong. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ "Different Ideas About Newcomb Cases". Thoughts Arguments and Rants. May 30, 2007. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ "CarlShulman comments on Counterfactual Mugging". LessWrong. June 21, 2013. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ "FAQ - Lesswrongwiki". LessWrong. Retrieved June 1, 2017.
- ↑ "Gary_Drescher comments on Ingredients of Timeless Decision Theory - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ Yudkowsky, Eliezer (2010). "Timeless Decision Theory" (PDF). Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ Bensinger, Rob (March 18, 2017). "New paper: "Cheating Death in Damascus"". Machine Intelligence Research Institute. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
- ↑ Soares, Nate; Levinstein, Benjamin A. "Cheating Death in Damascus" (PDF). Retrieved September 10, 2017.
