Timeline of decision theory

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This is a timeline of decision theory, with a focus on updateless/timeless/acausal decision theories.

Big picture

Time period Development summary More details

Full timeline

Year Month and date Event type Details
1969 Newcomb's problem is discussed by Robert Nozick.
1985 The idea of superrationality is introduced by Douglas Hofstadter in his Metamagical Themas.
1997 The Sleeping Beauty problem is first formally analyzed.
2002 July 17 Hal Finney, in a mailing list discussion, brings up ideas that according to Wei Dai "came pretty close to some of the ideas behind TDT".[1][2]
2006 May 5 Gary Drescher's Good and Real is published.[3]
2009 February Project Eliezer Yudkowsky starts LessWrong using as seed material his posts on Overcoming Bias.[4] During the following years LessWrong would become the locus of discussion about timeless/updateless decision theory.
2010 Timeless decision theory is published in paper form by Eliezer Yudkowsky.[5]
2017 March 18 "Cheating Death in Damascus" by Nate Soares and Ben Levinstein is announced on the Machine Intelligence Research Institute blog.[6][7]

Meta information on the timeline

How the timeline was built

The initial version of the timeline was written by Issa Rice.

What the timeline is still missing

Timeline update strategy

See also

External links


  1. "Wei_Dai comments on Common mistakes people make when thinking about decision theory - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved September 10, 2017. 
  2. Finney, Hal (July 17, 2002). "self-sampling assumption is incorrect". Google Groups. Retrieved September 10, 2017. 
  3. "Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics (MIT Press): Gary L. Drescher: 9780262042338: Amazon.com: Books". Retrieved September 10, 2017. 
  4. "FAQ - Lesswrongwiki". LessWrong. Retrieved June 1, 2017. 
  5. Yudkowsky, Eliezer (2010). "Timeless Decision Theory" (PDF). Retrieved September 10, 2017. 
  6. Bensinger, Rob (March 18, 2017). "New paper: "Cheating Death in Damascus"". Machine Intelligence Research Institute. Retrieved September 10, 2017. 
  7. Soares, Nate; Levinstein, Benjamin A. "Cheating Death in Damascus" (PDF). Retrieved September 10, 2017.