Difference between revisions of "Timeline of prediction markets"
From Timelines
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== Big picture == | == Big picture == | ||
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{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
!Time period | !Time period | ||
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== Full timeline == | == Full timeline == | ||
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{| class="sortable wikitable" | {| class="sortable wikitable" | ||
!Year | !Year | ||
| − | ! | + | !Event type |
!Event | !Event | ||
|- | |- | ||
|1961 | |1961 | ||
| − | | | + | |Legal |
|The {{W|Federal Wire Act}} becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire communication facility for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-75/pdf/STATUTE-75-Pg491.pdf|title=Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref> | |The {{W|Federal Wire Act}} becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire communication facility for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-75/pdf/STATUTE-75-Pg491.pdf|title=Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|1988 | |1988 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|{{W|Iowa Political Stock Market}} launches during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref> | |{{W|Iowa Political Stock Market}} launches during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|1990 | |1990 | ||
| − | | | + | |Corporate |
|At {{W|Project Xanadu}}, {{W|Robin Hanson}} uses the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |At {{W|Project Xanadu}}, {{W|Robin Hanson}} uses the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|1999 | |1999 | ||
| − | | | + | |Performance |
|{{W|Hollywood Stock Exchange}}'s NominOptions predicts 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194335/https://www.hsx.com/about/pr_oscar_nom_2006.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |{{W|Hollywood Stock Exchange}}'s NominOptions predicts 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194335/https://www.hsx.com/about/pr_oscar_nom_2006.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2000 | |2000 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start {{W|Intrade.com}}, a prediction market charging a monthly fee.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130601090502/https://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Sport-in-the-City|title=Sport in the City|date=2013-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start {{W|Intrade.com}}, a prediction market charging a monthly fee.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130601090502/https://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Sport-in-the-City|title=Sport in the City|date=2013-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2000 | |2000 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|{{W|NewsFutures}}, a play-money prediction market, is found by Émile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20001216131100/http://ps.newsfutures.com:80/index.html|title=NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info|date=2000-12-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |{{W|NewsFutures}}, a play-money prediction market, is found by Émile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20001216131100/http://ps.newsfutures.com:80/index.html|title=NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info|date=2000-12-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2001 | |2001 | ||
| − | | | + | |Research |
|{{W|DARPA}} launches a call for proposal for the development of decision markets, later known as FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20020111195139/http://www.acq.osd.mil/sadbu/sbir/solicitations/sbir012/darpa012.htm|title=POINTS OF CONTACT|date=2002-01-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |{{W|DARPA}} launches a call for proposal for the development of decision markets, later known as FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20020111195139/http://www.acq.osd.mil/sadbu/sbir/solicitations/sbir012/darpa012.htm|title=POINTS OF CONTACT|date=2002-01-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2001 | |2001 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Long Bets Foundation is found as a 501(c)(3) public education nonprofit foundation by {{W|The Long Now Foundation}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021001000000*/http://longbets.org/about/|title=Wayback Machine|date=2002-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Long Bets Foundation is found as a 501(c)(3) public education nonprofit foundation by {{W|The Long Now Foundation}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021001000000*/http://longbets.org/about/|title=Wayback Machine|date=2002-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2002 | |2002 | ||
| − | | | + | |Corporate |
|Yahoo starts experimenting with prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180622171957/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/idc/groups/public/@lrfederalregister/documents/frcomment/08-004c029.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-06-22|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Yahoo starts experimenting with prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180622171957/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/idc/groups/public/@lrfederalregister/documents/frcomment/08-004c029.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-06-22|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2003 | |2003 | ||
| − | | | + | |Discontinuation |
|Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811195116/http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html|title=Senator Ron Wyden|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811195116/http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html|title=Senator Ron Wyden|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2003 | |2003 | ||
| − | | | + | |Discontinuation |
|DARPA's FutureMAP program terminates.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811045100/http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/futuremap-darpa.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |DARPA's FutureMAP program terminates.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811045100/http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/futuremap-darpa.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2004 | |2004 | ||
| − | | | + | |Publication |
|James Surowiecki publishes the book "{{W|The Wisdom of Crowds}}", championing the idea of prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL9414725M/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds|title=The Wisdom of Crowds|last=Surowiecki|first=James|date=2004-06-03|publisher=Little, Brown|isbn=9780316861731}}</ref> | |James Surowiecki publishes the book "{{W|The Wisdom of Crowds}}", championing the idea of prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL9414725M/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds|title=The Wisdom of Crowds|last=Surowiecki|first=James|date=2004-06-03|publisher=Little, Brown|isbn=9780316861731}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2004 | |2004 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|{{W|HedgeStreet}} is found with the approval of the {{W|Commodity Futures Trading Commission}} (CFTC).<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194606/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/files/anr/anr2004.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |{{W|HedgeStreet}} is found with the approval of the {{W|Commodity Futures Trading Commission}} (CFTC).<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194606/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/files/anr/anr2004.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2005 | |2005 | ||
| − | | | + | |Research |
|An article in Nature states how Eli Lilly and Company used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=|first=|date=2005-11-17|title=Wisdom of the crowd|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/438281a|journal=Nature|volume=438|issue=7066|pages=281–281|doi=10.1038/438281a|issn=0028-0836|via=}}</ref> | |An article in Nature states how Eli Lilly and Company used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=|first=|date=2005-11-17|title=Wisdom of the crowd|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/438281a|journal=Nature|volume=438|issue=7066|pages=281–281|doi=10.1038/438281a|issn=0028-0836|via=}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2005 | |2005 | ||
| − | | | + | |Corporate |
|Google announces that it has been using prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051001072152/https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html|title=Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work|date=2005-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Google announces that it has been using prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051001072152/https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html|title=Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work|date=2005-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2006 | |2006 | ||
| − | | | + | |Legal |
|The {{W|Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act}} comes into effect in the US, prohibiting "gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the Internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100601165540/https://www.ots.treas.gov/_files/422372.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2010-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |The {{W|Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act}} comes into effect in the US, prohibiting "gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the Internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100601165540/https://www.ots.treas.gov/_files/422372.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2010-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2006 | |2006 | ||
| − | | | + | |Corporate |
|Inkling, a company offering prediction markets tools for businesses, is found.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/inkling#section-overview|title=Inkling {{!}} Crunchbase|website=Crunchbase|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Inkling, a company offering prediction markets tools for businesses, is found.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/inkling#section-overview|title=Inkling {{!}} Crunchbase|website=Crunchbase|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2006 | |2006 | ||
| − | | | + | |Corporate |
|The Ford Motor Company starts using a prediction market internally.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Montgomery|first=Thomas A.|last2=Stieg|first2=Paul M.|last3=Cavaretta|first3=Michael J.|last4=Moraal|first4=Paul E.|date=2013-08-11|title=Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts|url=http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2487575.2488212|publisher=ACM|pages=1384–1392|doi=10.1145/2487575.2488212|isbn=9781450321747}}</ref> | |The Ford Motor Company starts using a prediction market internally.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Montgomery|first=Thomas A.|last2=Stieg|first2=Paul M.|last3=Cavaretta|first3=Michael J.|last4=Moraal|first4=Paul E.|date=2013-08-11|title=Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts|url=http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2487575.2488212|publisher=ACM|pages=1384–1392|doi=10.1145/2487575.2488212|isbn=9781450321747}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2007 | |2007 | ||
| − | | | + | |Publication |
|First issue of the Journal of Prediction Markets, with Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School as editor.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130308150634/http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/issue/view/49|title=Vol 1, No 1 (2007)|date=2013-03-08|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |First issue of the Journal of Prediction Markets, with Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School as editor.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130308150634/http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/issue/view/49|title=Vol 1, No 1 (2007)|date=2013-03-08|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2007 | |2007 | ||
| − | | | + | |Corporate |
|Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, with the goals of promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170429103454/http://www.cometoknow.com/prediction-market-industry-association|title=PMIA – Come to Know|date=2017-04-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, with the goals of promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170429103454/http://www.cometoknow.com/prediction-market-industry-association|title=PMIA – Come to Know|date=2017-04-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2008 | |2008 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|{{W|iPredict}} launches with the approval of the {{W|Securities Commission of New Zealand}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110407211908/http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2008/0285/latest/whole.html|title=Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008 (SR 2008/285) – New Zealand Legislation|date=2011-04-07|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |{{W|iPredict}} launches with the approval of the {{W|Securities Commission of New Zealand}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110407211908/http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2008/0285/latest/whole.html|title=Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008 (SR 2008/285) – New Zealand Legislation|date=2011-04-07|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2008 | |2008 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Smarkets, a betting exchange, launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080402232630/http://blog.smarkets.com/about/|title=About « Smarkets Blog|date=2008-04-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Smarkets, a betting exchange, launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080402232630/http://blog.smarkets.com/about/|title=About « Smarkets Blog|date=2008-04-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2008 | |2008 | ||
| − | | | + | |Legal |
|The CFTC solicits comments on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2008/05/07/E8-9981/concept-release-on-the-appropriate-regulatory-treatment-of-event-contracts|title=Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts|date=2008-05-07|work=Federal Register|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |The CFTC solicits comments on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2008/05/07/E8-9981/concept-release-on-the-appropriate-regulatory-treatment-of-event-contracts|title=Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts|date=2008-05-07|work=Federal Register|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2010 | |2010 | ||
| − | | | + | |Corporate |
|NewsFutures becomes Lumenogic, a company offering collective intelligence services to firms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100703052803/http://www.lumenogic.com:80/www/newsfutures.html|title=Lumenogic: Collective Intelligence Solutions for Senior Leadership|date=2010-07-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |NewsFutures becomes Lumenogic, a company offering collective intelligence services to firms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100703052803/http://www.lumenogic.com:80/www/newsfutures.html|title=Lumenogic: Collective Intelligence Solutions for Senior Leadership|date=2010-07-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2010 | |2010 | ||
| − | | | + | |Research |
|{{W|IARPA}}'s Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120916135741/https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title=Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities|date=2012-09-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |{{W|IARPA}}'s Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120916135741/https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title=Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities|date=2012-09-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2011 | |2011 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|DAGGRE launches as part of IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120127194416/http://daggre.org:80/info/|title=DAGGRE|date=2012-01-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |DAGGRE launches as part of IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120127194416/http://daggre.org:80/info/|title=DAGGRE|date=2012-01-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2011 | |2011 | ||
| − | | | + | |Legal |
|The US Department of Justice releases a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140815211239/https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/2011/09/31/state-lotteries-opinion.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2014-08-15|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |The US Department of Justice releases a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140815211239/https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/2011/09/31/state-lotteries-opinion.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2014-08-15|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2012 | |2012 | ||
| − | | | + | |Legal |
|CFTC charges Intrade and TEN with violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and filing false forms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121202055455/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6423-12|title=CFTC Charges Ireland-based “Prediction Market” Proprietors Intrade and TEN with Violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and Filing False Forms with the CFTC|date=2012-12-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |CFTC charges Intrade and TEN with violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and filing false forms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121202055455/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6423-12|title=CFTC Charges Ireland-based “Prediction Market” Proprietors Intrade and TEN with Violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and Filing False Forms with the CFTC|date=2012-12-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2012 | |2012 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Bitbet.us becomes available.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140409100642/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=120757.0|title=Bitcoin Affiliate Programs.|date=2014-04-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Bitbet.us becomes available.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140409100642/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=120757.0|title=Bitcoin Affiliate Programs.|date=2014-04-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2012 | |2012 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|David Pennock, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, announces PredictWiseQ, an implementation of combinatorial prediction market design.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121020123214/http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/|title=Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog|date=2012-10-20|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |David Pennock, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, announces PredictWiseQ, an implementation of combinatorial prediction market design.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121020123214/http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/|title=Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog|date=2012-10-20|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2013 | |2013 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|First commit on TruthCoin (later called Hivemind), a Bitcoin-based decentralized prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://github.com/psztorc/Truthcoin/commit/d54e6216b28674e79f53b5d99dc226a896120eb3|title=First Commit · psztorc/Truthcoin@d54e621|website=GitHub|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |First commit on TruthCoin (later called Hivemind), a Bitcoin-based decentralized prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://github.com/psztorc/Truthcoin/commit/d54e6216b28674e79f53b5d99dc226a896120eb3|title=First Commit · psztorc/Truthcoin@d54e621|website=GitHub|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2013 | |2013 | ||
| − | | | + | |Performance |
|{{W|The Good Judgment Project}} wins IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131127133205/https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/|title=Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)|date=2013-11-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |{{W|The Good Judgment Project}} wins IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131127133205/https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/|title=Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)|date=2013-11-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2014 | |2014 | ||
| − | | | + | |Legal |
|CFTC provides {{W|No-Action Relief}} for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to operate a not-for-profit market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to US persons.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141103175945/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7047-14|title=CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons|date=2014-11-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |CFTC provides {{W|No-Action Relief}} for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to operate a not-for-profit market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to US persons.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141103175945/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7047-14|title=CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons|date=2014-11-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2014 | |2014 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Microsoft launches Prediction Lab.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150919035714/http://www.predictwise.com/node/3765|title=Why Microsoft Prediction Lab {{!}} PredictWise|date=2015-09-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Microsoft launches Prediction Lab.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150919035714/http://www.predictwise.com/node/3765|title=Why Microsoft Prediction Lab {{!}} PredictWise|date=2015-09-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2014 | |2014 | ||
| − | | | + | |Discontinuation |
|DAGGRE stops. Robin Hanson annonces SciCast as part of IARPA's ForeST program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140503011442/http://www.overcomingbias.com/2014/01/announcingscicast.html|title=Overcoming Bias : Announcing: SciCast|date=2014-05-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |DAGGRE stops. Robin Hanson annonces SciCast as part of IARPA's ForeST program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140503011442/http://www.overcomingbias.com/2014/01/announcingscicast.html|title=Overcoming Bias : Announcing: SciCast|date=2014-05-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2014 | |2014 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Launch of Fairlay, a Bitcoin-based prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140409034120/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=433086.0|title=FAIRLAY.COM - New Bitcoin Prediction Market|date=2014-04-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Launch of Fairlay, a Bitcoin-based prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140409034120/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=433086.0|title=FAIRLAY.COM - New Bitcoin Prediction Market|date=2014-04-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2014 | |2014 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Lumenogic (previously NewsFutures) launches Hypermind, a play-money prediction market, leveraging techniques built for the Good Judgment Project.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831182258/https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2015/02/Servan-Schreiber-and-Atanasov-CI-2015-Abstract.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-31|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Lumenogic (previously NewsFutures) launches Hypermind, a play-money prediction market, leveraging techniques built for the Good Judgment Project.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831182258/https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2015/02/Servan-Schreiber-and-Atanasov-CI-2015-Abstract.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-31|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2015 | |2015 | ||
| − | | | + | |Research |
|Publication of a paper on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research, in the {{W|Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}}.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Dreber|first=Anna|last2=Pfeiffer|first2=Thomas|last3=Almenberg|first3=Johan|last4=Isaksson|first4=Siri|last5=Wilson|first5=Brad|last6=Chen|first6=Yiling|last7=Nosek|first7=Brian A.|last8=Johannesson|first8=Magnus|date=2015-12-15|title=Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research|url=http://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=112|issue=50|pages=15343–15347|doi=10.1073/pnas.1516179112|issn=0027-8424|pmc=4687569|pmid=26553988}}</ref> | |Publication of a paper on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research, in the {{W|Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}}.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Dreber|first=Anna|last2=Pfeiffer|first2=Thomas|last3=Almenberg|first3=Johan|last4=Isaksson|first4=Siri|last5=Wilson|first5=Brad|last6=Chen|first6=Yiling|last7=Nosek|first7=Brian A.|last8=Johannesson|first8=Magnus|date=2015-12-15|title=Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research|url=http://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=112|issue=50|pages=15343–15347|doi=10.1073/pnas.1516179112|issn=0027-8424|pmc=4687569|pmid=26553988}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2015 | |2015 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Launch of Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151224181609/https://www.metaculus.com|title=Metaculus|date=2015-12-24|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Launch of Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151224181609/https://www.metaculus.com|title=Metaculus|date=2015-12-24|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2015 | |2015 | ||
| − | | | + | |Discontinuation |
|Suspension of SciCast after losing IARPA funding.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150609013153/http://blog.scicast.org/2015/06/08/so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-fish/|title=So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish! {{!}} The Official SciCast Blog|date=2015-06-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Suspension of SciCast after losing IARPA funding.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150609013153/http://blog.scicast.org/2015/06/08/so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-fish/|title=So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish! {{!}} The Official SciCast Blog|date=2015-06-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2015 | |2015 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Jack Peterson and Joey Krug register the Forecast Foundation OU in Estonia, the parent organization of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on {{W|Ethereum}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830180936/https://www.infoproff.com/en/companies/regcard/EST7851930/12894333|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Jack Peterson and Joey Krug register the Forecast Foundation OU in Estonia, the parent organization of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on {{W|Ethereum}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830180936/https://www.infoproff.com/en/companies/regcard/EST7851930/12894333|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2015 | |2015 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Martin Köppelmann announces Gnosis, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3i9i8m/groupgnosis_prediction_market_is_live_trading_has/|title=r/ethereum - Groupgnosis Prediction Market is Live; Trading has Begun.|website=reddit|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Martin Köppelmann announces Gnosis, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3i9i8m/groupgnosis_prediction_market_is_live_trading_has/|title=r/ethereum - Groupgnosis Prediction Market is Live; Trading has Begun.|website=reddit|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2015 | |2015 | ||
| − | | | + | |Corporate |
|Publication of a paper on the use of internal prediction markets at Google, Ford, and a pseudonymous materials & energy conglomerate.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Cowgill|first=Bo|last2=Zitzewitz|first2=Eric|date=2015-04-02|title=Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X|url=https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv014|journal=The Review of Economic Studies|language=en|volume=82|issue=4|pages=1309–1341|doi=10.1093/restud/rdv014|issn=0034-6527}}</ref> | |Publication of a paper on the use of internal prediction markets at Google, Ford, and a pseudonymous materials & energy conglomerate.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Cowgill|first=Bo|last2=Zitzewitz|first2=Eric|date=2015-04-02|title=Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X|url=https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv014|journal=The Review of Economic Studies|language=en|volume=82|issue=4|pages=1309–1341|doi=10.1093/restud/rdv014|issn=0034-6527}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2016 | |2016 | ||
| − | | | + | |Discontinuation |
|iPredict closes after Associate Justice Minister Simon Bridges refused to grant it an exemption from the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act, declaring that it was a "legitimate money laundering risk" because of the lack of customer due diligence.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170929140157/http://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=message|title=iPredict Message - iPredict|date=2017-09-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |iPredict closes after Associate Justice Minister Simon Bridges refused to grant it an exemption from the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act, declaring that it was a "legitimate money laundering risk" because of the lack of customer due diligence.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170929140157/http://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=message|title=iPredict Message - iPredict|date=2017-09-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2016 | |2016 | ||
| − | | | + | |Discontinuation |
|Microsoft silently phases out Prediction Lab.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://prediction.microsoft.com/|title=Wayback Machine|website=web.archive.org|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Microsoft silently phases out Prediction Lab.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://prediction.microsoft.com/|title=Wayback Machine|website=web.archive.org|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2017 | |2017 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Founding and {{W|initial coin offering}} of STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802121404/https://www.newsbtc.com/2017/08/02/stox-prediction-platforms-ico-begins-now/|title=STOX – The Prediction Platform’s ICO Begins Now! - NEWSBTC|date=2017-08-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Founding and {{W|initial coin offering}} of STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802121404/https://www.newsbtc.com/2017/08/02/stox-prediction-platforms-ico-begins-now/|title=STOX – The Prediction Platform’s ICO Begins Now! - NEWSBTC|date=2017-08-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2017 | |2017 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|The {{W|Winton Group}} (British investment management firm) starts climatepredictionmarket.com, a prediction market for climate prediction.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180130145737/http://www.pionline.com/article/20171030/PRINT/171039996/winton-provides-market-for-those-who-want-to-wager-on-the-weather|title=Winton provides market for those who want to wager on the weather - Pensions & Investments|date=2018-01-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |The {{W|Winton Group}} (British investment management firm) starts climatepredictionmarket.com, a prediction market for climate prediction.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180130145737/http://www.pionline.com/article/20171030/PRINT/171039996/winton-provides-market-for-those-who-want-to-wager-on-the-weather|title=Winton provides market for those who want to wager on the weather - Pensions & Investments|date=2018-01-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2018 | |2018 | ||
| − | | | + | |Legal |
|The Federal Court in District of Columbia orders Intrade and TEN to pay $3 million Civil Monetary Penalty for illegally trading binary options and violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180801212926/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7758-18|title=Federal Court in District of Columbia Orders “Prediction Market” Companies to Pay $3 Million Civil Monetary Penalty for Illegally Trading Binary Options and Violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order {{!}} U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION|date=2018-08-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |The Federal Court in District of Columbia orders Intrade and TEN to pay $3 million Civil Monetary Penalty for illegally trading binary options and violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180801212926/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7758-18|title=Federal Court in District of Columbia Orders “Prediction Market” Companies to Pay $3 Million Civil Monetary Penalty for Illegally Trading Binary Options and Violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order {{!}} U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION|date=2018-08-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2018 | |2018 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Official launch of Augur, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180710084918/https://medium.com/@AugurProject/augur-launches-794fa7f88c6a|title=Augur Launches – Augur – Medium|date=2018-07-10|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | |Official launch of Augur, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180710084918/https://medium.com/@AugurProject/augur-launches-794fa7f88c6a|title=Augur Launches – Augur – Medium|date=2018-07-10|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2018 | |2018 | ||
| − | | | + | |Launch |
|Launch of Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831180707/https://www.tgdaily.com/games-and-entertainment/the-fame-project-is-letting-people-bet-on-the-future#bypass-sw|title=The Fame Project is Letting People Bet on the Future|work=TGDaily|access-date=2018-09-04|language=en}}</ref> | |Launch of Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831180707/https://www.tgdaily.com/games-and-entertainment/the-fame-project-is-letting-people-bet-on-the-future#bypass-sw|title=The Fame Project is Letting People Bet on the Future|work=TGDaily|access-date=2018-09-04|language=en}}</ref> | ||
|} | |} | ||
== Meta information on the timeline == | == Meta information on the timeline == | ||
| − | |||
The initial version of the timeline was written by [[User:Orpheus Lummis|Orpheus_Lummis]]. | The initial version of the timeline was written by [[User:Orpheus Lummis|Orpheus_Lummis]]. | ||
Revision as of 12:21, 23 September 2018
This is a timeline of prediction markets.
Contents
Big picture
| Time period | Development summary |
|---|---|
| Up to the 16th century | "Wagering on the papal election was an old practice by 1503, but the Venetian ambassadors' reports in Sanuto, I Diarii, are the first sources on the odds."[1] |
| 16th & 17th century | In Italian city-states, betting is prevalent regarding the choice of government officials and on papal selection.[2][3] |
| 18th to early 20th century | Various instances of political betting on the timing and winning party of Parliamentary elections in Britain, on the outcomes of local and national elections in Canada, and on Presidential and Congressional winners in the United States.[4] |
Full timeline
| Year | Event type | Event |
|---|---|---|
| 1961 | Legal | The Federal Wire Act becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire communication facility for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.[5] |
| 1988 | Launch | Iowa Political Stock Market launches during the US presidential election.[6] |
| 1990 | Corporate | At Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson uses the first known corporate prediction market.[7] |
| 1999 | Performance | Hollywood Stock Exchange's NominOptions predicts 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.[8] |
| 2000 | Launch | Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start Intrade.com, a prediction market charging a monthly fee.[9] |
| 2000 | Launch | NewsFutures, a play-money prediction market, is found by Émile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick.[10] |
| 2001 | Research | DARPA launches a call for proposal for the development of decision markets, later known as FutureMAP.[11] |
| 2001 | Launch | Long Bets Foundation is found as a 501(c)(3) public education nonprofit foundation by The Long Now Foundation.[12] |
| 2002 | Corporate | Yahoo starts experimenting with prediction markets internally.[13] |
| 2003 | Discontinuation | Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.[14] |
| 2003 | Discontinuation | DARPA's FutureMAP program terminates.[15] |
| 2004 | Publication | James Surowiecki publishes the book "The Wisdom of Crowds", championing the idea of prediction markets.[16] |
| 2004 | Launch | HedgeStreet is found with the approval of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).[17] |
| 2005 | Research | An article in Nature states how Eli Lilly and Company used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.[18] |
| 2005 | Corporate | Google announces that it has been using prediction markets internally.[19] |
| 2006 | Legal | The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act comes into effect in the US, prohibiting "gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the Internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law."[20] |
| 2006 | Corporate | Inkling, a company offering prediction markets tools for businesses, is found.[21] |
| 2006 | Corporate | The Ford Motor Company starts using a prediction market internally.[22] |
| 2007 | Publication | First issue of the Journal of Prediction Markets, with Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School as editor.[23] |
| 2007 | Corporate | Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, with the goals of promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.[24] |
| 2008 | Launch | iPredict launches with the approval of the Securities Commission of New Zealand.[25] |
| 2008 | Launch | Smarkets, a betting exchange, launches.[26] |
| 2008 | Legal | The CFTC solicits comments on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.[27] |
| 2010 | Corporate | NewsFutures becomes Lumenogic, a company offering collective intelligence services to firms.[28] |
| 2010 | Research | IARPA's Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches.[29] |
| 2011 | Launch | DAGGRE launches as part of IARPA's ACE program.[30] |
| 2011 | Legal | The US Department of Justice releases a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."[31] |
| 2012 | Legal | CFTC charges Intrade and TEN with violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and filing false forms.[32] |
| 2012 | Launch | Bitbet.us becomes available.[33] |
| 2012 | Launch | David Pennock, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, announces PredictWiseQ, an implementation of combinatorial prediction market design.[34] |
| 2013 | Launch | First commit on TruthCoin (later called Hivemind), a Bitcoin-based decentralized prediction market.[35] |
| 2013 | Performance | The Good Judgment Project wins IARPA's ACE program.[36] |
| 2014 | Legal | CFTC provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to operate a not-for-profit market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to US persons.[37] |
| 2014 | Launch | Microsoft launches Prediction Lab.[38] |
| 2014 | Discontinuation | DAGGRE stops. Robin Hanson annonces SciCast as part of IARPA's ForeST program.[39] |
| 2014 | Launch | Launch of Fairlay, a Bitcoin-based prediction market.[40] |
| 2014 | Launch | Lumenogic (previously NewsFutures) launches Hypermind, a play-money prediction market, leveraging techniques built for the Good Judgment Project.[41] |
| 2015 | Research | Publication of a paper on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.[42] |
| 2015 | Launch | Launch of Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions.[43] |
| 2015 | Discontinuation | Suspension of SciCast after losing IARPA funding.[44] |
| 2015 | Launch | Jack Peterson and Joey Krug register the Forecast Foundation OU in Estonia, the parent organization of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on Ethereum.[45] |
| 2015 | Launch | Martin Köppelmann announces Gnosis, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.[46] |
| 2015 | Corporate | Publication of a paper on the use of internal prediction markets at Google, Ford, and a pseudonymous materials & energy conglomerate.[47] |
| 2016 | Discontinuation | iPredict closes after Associate Justice Minister Simon Bridges refused to grant it an exemption from the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act, declaring that it was a "legitimate money laundering risk" because of the lack of customer due diligence.[48] |
| 2016 | Discontinuation | Microsoft silently phases out Prediction Lab.[49] |
| 2017 | Launch | Founding and initial coin offering of STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market.[50] |
| 2017 | Launch | The Winton Group (British investment management firm) starts climatepredictionmarket.com, a prediction market for climate prediction.[51] |
| 2018 | Legal | The Federal Court in District of Columbia orders Intrade and TEN to pay $3 million Civil Monetary Penalty for illegally trading binary options and violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order.[52] |
| 2018 | Launch | Official launch of Augur, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.[53] |
| 2018 | Launch | Launch of Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news.[54] |
Meta information on the timeline
The initial version of the timeline was written by Orpheus_Lummis.
Funding information for this timeline is available.
Feedback and comments
Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:
- TBD reddit
- TBD facebook
- by emailing o@orpheuslummis.com
Timeline update strategy
Review yearly the advances of the field and historical material that is uncovered.
See also
References
- ↑ Baumgartner, Frederic J. (2003), "The Creation of the Conclave", Behind Locked Doors, Palgrave Macmillan US, pp. 39–58, ISBN 9781403969620, retrieved 2018-09-04
- ↑ Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2013-11-12). "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective". doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029.
- ↑ Walker, J. (1999-02-01). "GAMBLING AND VENETIAN NOBLEMEN c. 1500-1700". Past & Present. 162 (1): 28–69. ISSN 0031-2746. doi:10.1093/past/162.1.28.
- ↑ Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2013-11-12). "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective". doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029.
- ↑ "Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act" (PDF).
- ↑ "Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"". Archived from the original on 2012-11-30.
- ↑ "Robin Hanson's Bio". 2015-02-19. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-08-26. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Sport in the City". 2013-06-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info". 2000-12-16. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "POINTS OF CONTACT". 2002-01-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Wayback Machine". 2002-10-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-06-22. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Senator Ron Wyden". 2003-08-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2003-08-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ Surowiecki, James (2004-06-03). The Wisdom of Crowds. Little, Brown. ISBN 9780316861731.
- ↑ "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-08-26. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
- ↑ "Wisdom of the crowd". Nature. 438 (7066): 281–281. 2005-11-17. ISSN 0028-0836. doi:10.1038/438281a.
- ↑ "Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work". 2005-10-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04.
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. PMID 26553988. doi:10.1073/pnas.1516179112.
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