Difference between revisions of "Timeline of prediction markets"

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|16th & 17th century
 
|16th & 17th century
|Betting was prevalent, in Italian city-states, on the choice of government officials and on papal selection.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Walker|first=J.|date=1999-02-01|title=GAMBLING AND VENETIAN NOBLEMEN c. 1500-1700|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/past/162.1.28|journal=Past & Present|volume=162|issue=1|pages=28–69|doi=10.1093/past/162.1.28|issn=0031-2746}}</ref>
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|In Italian city-states, betting is prevalent regarding the choice of government officials and on papal selection.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Walker|first=J.|date=1999-02-01|title=GAMBLING AND VENETIAN NOBLEMEN c. 1500-1700|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/past/162.1.28|journal=Past & Present|volume=162|issue=1|pages=28–69|doi=10.1093/past/162.1.28|issn=0031-2746}}</ref>
 
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|18th to early 20th century
 
|18th to early 20th century
|Various instances of political betting on the timing and winning party of Parliamentary elections in Britain, the outcomes of local and national elections in Canada, and Presidential and Congressional winners in the United States.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref>
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|Various instances of political betting on the timing and winning party of Parliamentary elections in Britain, on the outcomes of local and national elections in Canada, and on Presidential and Congressional winners in the United States.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref>
 
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|1988
 
|1988
 
|
 
|
|Iowa Political Stock Market is introduced during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
+
|Iowa Political Stock Market launches during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
 
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|-
 
|1990
 
|1990
 
|
 
|
|At Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson used the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|At Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson uses the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|-
 
|1999
 
|1999
 
|
 
|
|Hollywood Stock Exchange's NominOptions predicted 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194335/https://www.hsx.com/about/pr_oscar_nom_2006.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|Hollywood Stock Exchange's NominOptions predicts 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194335/https://www.hsx.com/about/pr_oscar_nom_2006.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2000
 
|2000
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|2000
 
|2000
 
|
 
|
|NewsFutures, a play-money prediction market, is founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20001216131100/http://ps.newsfutures.com:80/index.html|title=NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info|date=2000-12-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|NewsFutures, a play-money prediction market, is found by Émile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20001216131100/http://ps.newsfutures.com:80/index.html|title=NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info|date=2000-12-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2001
 
|2001
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|2001
 
|2001
 
|
 
|
|Long Bets Foundation was founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021001000000*/http://longbets.org/about/|title=Wayback Machine|date=2002-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|Long Bets Foundation is found as a 501(c)(3) public education nonprofit foundation by The Long Now Foundation.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021001000000*/http://longbets.org/about/|title=Wayback Machine|date=2002-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|2002
 
|2002
 
|
 
|
|Yahoo started experimenting with prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180622171957/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/idc/groups/public/@lrfederalregister/documents/frcomment/08-004c029.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-06-22|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|Yahoo starts experimenting with prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180622171957/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/idc/groups/public/@lrfederalregister/documents/frcomment/08-004c029.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-06-22|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|2003
 
|2003
 
|
 
|
|Two US senators called for the immediate end of FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811195116/http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html|title=Senator Ron Wyden|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811195116/http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html|title=Senator Ron Wyden|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
|-
 
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|2003
 
|2003
 
|
 
|
|DARPA's FutureMAP program is terminated.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811045100/http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/futuremap-darpa.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|DARPA's FutureMAP program terminates.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811045100/http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/futuremap-darpa.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|2004
 
|2004
 
|
 
|
|James Surowiecki published the book "The Wisdom of Crowds", championing the idea of prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL9414725M/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds|title=The Wisdom of Crowds|last=Surowiecki|first=James|date=2004-06-03|publisher=Little, Brown|isbn=9780316861731}}</ref>
+
|James Surowiecki publishes the book "The Wisdom of Crowds", championing the idea of prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL9414725M/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds|title=The Wisdom of Crowds|last=Surowiecki|first=James|date=2004-06-03|publisher=Little, Brown|isbn=9780316861731}}</ref>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|2004
 
|2004
 
|
 
|
|HedgeStreet was founded and approved by the CFTC.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194606/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/files/anr/anr2004.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|HedgeStreet is found with the approval of the CFTC.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194606/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/files/anr/anr2004.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2005
 
|2005
 
|
 
|
|An article in Nature stated how Eli Lilly and Company used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=|first=|date=2005-11-17|title=Wisdom of the crowd|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/438281a|journal=Nature|volume=438|issue=7066|pages=281–281|doi=10.1038/438281a|issn=0028-0836|via=}}</ref>
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|An article in Nature states how Eli Lilly and Company used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=|first=|date=2005-11-17|title=Wisdom of the crowd|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/438281a|journal=Nature|volume=438|issue=7066|pages=281–281|doi=10.1038/438281a|issn=0028-0836|via=}}</ref>
 
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|2005
 
|2005
 
|
 
|
|Google announced that it has been using prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051001072152/https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html|title=Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work|date=2005-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|Google announces that it has been using prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051001072152/https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html|title=Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work|date=2005-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2006
 
|2006
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|2006
 
|2006
 
|
 
|
|Inkling, a company offering prediction markets tools for businesses, is founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/inkling#section-overview|title=Inkling {{!}} Crunchbase|website=Crunchbase|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|Inkling, a company offering prediction markets tools for businesses, is found.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/inkling#section-overview|title=Inkling {{!}} Crunchbase|website=Crunchbase|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|-
 
|2006
 
|2006
 
|
 
|
|The Ford Motor Company started using a prediction market internally.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Montgomery|first=Thomas A.|last2=Stieg|first2=Paul M.|last3=Cavaretta|first3=Michael J.|last4=Moraal|first4=Paul E.|date=2013-08-11|title=Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts|url=http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2487575.2488212|publisher=ACM|pages=1384–1392|doi=10.1145/2487575.2488212|isbn=9781450321747}}</ref>
+
|The Ford Motor Company starts using a prediction market internally.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Montgomery|first=Thomas A.|last2=Stieg|first2=Paul M.|last3=Cavaretta|first3=Michael J.|last4=Moraal|first4=Paul E.|date=2013-08-11|title=Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts|url=http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2487575.2488212|publisher=ACM|pages=1384–1392|doi=10.1145/2487575.2488212|isbn=9781450321747}}</ref>
 
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|2007
 
|2007
 
|
 
|
|First issue of the Journal of Prediction Markets, edited by Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School, is issued.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130308150634/http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/issue/view/49|title=Vol 1, No 1 (2007)|date=2013-03-08|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|First issue of the Journal of Prediction Markets, with Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School as editor.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130308150634/http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/issue/view/49|title=Vol 1, No 1 (2007)|date=2013-03-08|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2007
 
|2007
 
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|Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, tasked with promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170429103454/http://www.cometoknow.com/prediction-market-industry-association|title=PMIA – Come to Know|date=2017-04-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, with the goals of promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170429103454/http://www.cometoknow.com/prediction-market-industry-association|title=PMIA – Come to Know|date=2017-04-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2008
 
|2008
 
|
 
|
|iPredict launches and is approved by the New Zealand Securities Commission.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110407211908/http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2008/0285/latest/whole.html|title=Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008 (SR 2008/285) – New Zealand Legislation|date=2011-04-07|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|iPredict launches with the approval of the New Zealand Securities Commission.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110407211908/http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2008/0285/latest/whole.html|title=Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008 (SR 2008/285) – New Zealand Legislation|date=2011-04-07|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2008
 
|2008
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|2008
 
|2008
 
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|The CFTC is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2008/05/07/E8-9981/concept-release-on-the-appropriate-regulatory-treatment-of-event-contracts|title=Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts|date=2008-05-07|work=Federal Register|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|The CFTC solicits comments on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2008/05/07/E8-9981/concept-release-on-the-appropriate-regulatory-treatment-of-event-contracts|title=Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts|date=2008-05-07|work=Federal Register|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2010
 
|2010
 
|
 
|
|NewsFutures becomes Lumenogic offering collective intelligence services to firms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100703052803/http://www.lumenogic.com:80/www/newsfutures.html|title=Lumenogic: Collective Intelligence Solutions for Senior Leadership|date=2010-07-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|NewsFutures becomes Lumenogic, a company offering collective intelligence services to firms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100703052803/http://www.lumenogic.com:80/www/newsfutures.html|title=Lumenogic: Collective Intelligence Solutions for Senior Leadership|date=2010-07-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2010
 
|2010
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|2011
 
|2011
 
|
 
|
|The US Department of Justice released a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140815211239/https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/2011/09/31/state-lotteries-opinion.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2014-08-15|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|The US Department of Justice releases a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140815211239/https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/2011/09/31/state-lotteries-opinion.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2014-08-15|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2012
 
|2012
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|2012
 
|2012
 
|
 
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|PredictWiseQ is announced, implementing combinatorial prediction market design.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121020123214/http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/|title=Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog|date=2012-10-20|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|David Pennock, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, announces PredictWiseQ, an implementation of combinatorial prediction market design.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121020123214/http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/|title=Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog|date=2012-10-20|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2013
 
|2013
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|2014
 
|2014
 
|
 
|
|CFTC provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, NZ, to operate a not-for-profit Market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to U.S. persons.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141103175945/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7047-14|title=CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons|date=2014-11-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|CFTC provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to operate a not-for-profit Market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to U.S. persons.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141103175945/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7047-14|title=CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons|date=2014-11-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|2014
 
|2014
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|2014
 
|2014
 
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|
|DAGGRE stops. SciCast is announced as part of IARPA's ForeST program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140503011442/http://www.overcomingbias.com/2014/01/announcingscicast.html|title=Overcoming Bias : Announcing: SciCast|date=2014-05-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|DAGGRE stops. Robin Hanson annonces SciCast as part of IARPA's ForeST program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140503011442/http://www.overcomingbias.com/2014/01/announcingscicast.html|title=Overcoming Bias : Announcing: SciCast|date=2014-05-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|-
 
|2014
 
|2014
 
|
 
|
|Fairlay, a Bitcoin-based prediction market, is launched.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140409034120/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=433086.0|title=FAIRLAY.COM - New Bitcoin Prediction Market|date=2014-04-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|Launch of Fairlay, a Bitcoin-based prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140409034120/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=433086.0|title=FAIRLAY.COM - New Bitcoin Prediction Market|date=2014-04-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|-
 
|2014
 
|2014
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|2015
 
|2015
 
|
 
|
|A paper is published on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Dreber|first=Anna|last2=Pfeiffer|first2=Thomas|last3=Almenberg|first3=Johan|last4=Isaksson|first4=Siri|last5=Wilson|first5=Brad|last6=Chen|first6=Yiling|last7=Nosek|first7=Brian A.|last8=Johannesson|first8=Magnus|date=2015-12-15|title=Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research|url=http://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=112|issue=50|pages=15343–15347|doi=10.1073/pnas.1516179112|issn=0027-8424|pmc=4687569|pmid=26553988}}</ref>
+
|Publication of a paper on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Dreber|first=Anna|last2=Pfeiffer|first2=Thomas|last3=Almenberg|first3=Johan|last4=Isaksson|first4=Siri|last5=Wilson|first5=Brad|last6=Chen|first6=Yiling|last7=Nosek|first7=Brian A.|last8=Johannesson|first8=Magnus|date=2015-12-15|title=Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research|url=http://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=112|issue=50|pages=15343–15347|doi=10.1073/pnas.1516179112|issn=0027-8424|pmc=4687569|pmid=26553988}}</ref>
 
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|-
 
|2015
 
|2015
 
|
 
|
|Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions, was founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151224181609/https://www.metaculus.com|title=Metaculus|date=2015-12-24|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|Launch of Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151224181609/https://www.metaculus.com|title=Metaculus|date=2015-12-24|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|2015
 
|2015
 
|
 
|
|SciCast is suspended after losing IARPA funding.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150609013153/http://blog.scicast.org/2015/06/08/so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-fish/|title=So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish! {{!}} The Official SciCast Blog|date=2015-06-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
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|Suspension of SciCast after losing IARPA funding.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150609013153/http://blog.scicast.org/2015/06/08/so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-fish/|title=So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish! {{!}} The Official SciCast Blog|date=2015-06-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
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|-
 
|2015
 
|2015
 
|
 
|
|Forecast Foundation OU, parent of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on Ethereum, is registered in Estonia.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830180936/https://www.infoproff.com/en/companies/regcard/EST7851930/12894333|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|Jack Peterson and Joey Krug register the Forecast Foundation OU in Estonia, the parent organization of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on Ethereum.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830180936/https://www.infoproff.com/en/companies/regcard/EST7851930/12894333|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|2015
 
|2015
 
|
 
|
|Gnosis, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum, was launched.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3i9i8m/groupgnosis_prediction_market_is_live_trading_has/|title=r/ethereum - Groupgnosis Prediction Market is Live; Trading has Begun.|website=reddit|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|Martin Köppelmann announces Gnosis, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3i9i8m/groupgnosis_prediction_market_is_live_trading_has/|title=r/ethereum - Groupgnosis Prediction Market is Live; Trading has Begun.|website=reddit|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|2015
 
|2015
 
|
 
|
|A paper is published on the use of internal prediction markets at Google, Ford, and a pseudonymous materials & energy conglomerate.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Cowgill|first=Bo|last2=Zitzewitz|first2=Eric|date=2015-04-02|title=Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X|url=https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv014|journal=The Review of Economic Studies|language=en|volume=82|issue=4|pages=1309–1341|doi=10.1093/restud/rdv014|issn=0034-6527}}</ref>
+
|Publication of a paper on the use of internal prediction markets at Google, Ford, and a pseudonymous materials & energy conglomerate.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Cowgill|first=Bo|last2=Zitzewitz|first2=Eric|date=2015-04-02|title=Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X|url=https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv014|journal=The Review of Economic Studies|language=en|volume=82|issue=4|pages=1309–1341|doi=10.1093/restud/rdv014|issn=0034-6527}}</ref>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|2016
 
|2016
Line 207: Line 207:
 
|2017
 
|2017
 
|
 
|
|STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market, was founded and ICOed.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802121404/https://www.newsbtc.com/2017/08/02/stox-prediction-platforms-ico-begins-now/|title=STOX – The Prediction Platform’s ICO Begins Now! - NEWSBTC|date=2017-08-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|Founding and ICO of STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802121404/https://www.newsbtc.com/2017/08/02/stox-prediction-platforms-ico-begins-now/|title=STOX – The Prediction Platform’s ICO Begins Now! - NEWSBTC|date=2017-08-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|2017
 
|2017
Line 219: Line 219:
 
|2018
 
|2018
 
|
 
|
|Augur, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum, officially launched.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180710084918/https://medium.com/@AugurProject/augur-launches-794fa7f88c6a|title=Augur Launches – Augur – Medium|date=2018-07-10|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
+
|Official launch of Augur, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180710084918/https://medium.com/@AugurProject/augur-launches-794fa7f88c6a|title=Augur Launches – Augur – Medium|date=2018-07-10|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
 
|-
 
|-
 
|2018
 
|2018
 
|
 
|
|Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news, launched.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831180707/https://www.tgdaily.com/games-and-entertainment/the-fame-project-is-letting-people-bet-on-the-future#bypass-sw|title=The Fame Project is Letting People Bet on the Future|work=TGDaily|access-date=2018-09-04|language=en}}</ref>
+
|Launch of Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831180707/https://www.tgdaily.com/games-and-entertainment/the-fame-project-is-letting-people-bet-on-the-future#bypass-sw|title=The Fame Project is Letting People Bet on the Future|work=TGDaily|access-date=2018-09-04|language=en}}</ref>
 
|}
 
|}
  

Revision as of 20:34, 4 September 2018

This is a timeline of prediction markets.

Big picture

Time period Development summary
Up to the 16th century "Wagering on the papal election was an old practice by 1503, but the Venetian ambassadors' reports in Sanuto, I Diarii, are the first sources on the odds."[1]
16th & 17th century In Italian city-states, betting is prevalent regarding the choice of government officials and on papal selection.[2][3]
18th to early 20th century Various instances of political betting on the timing and winning party of Parliamentary elections in Britain, on the outcomes of local and national elections in Canada, and on Presidential and Congressional winners in the United States.[4]

Full timeline

Year Month and date Event
1961 The Federal Wire Act becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire communication facility for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.[5]
1988 Iowa Political Stock Market launches during the US presidential election.[6]
1990 At Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson uses the first known corporate prediction market.[7]
1999 Hollywood Stock Exchange's NominOptions predicts 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.[8]
2000 Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start Intrade.com, a prediction market, charging a monthly fee.[9]
2000 NewsFutures, a play-money prediction market, is found by Émile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick.[10]
2001 DARPA launches a call for proposal for the development of decision markets, later known as FutureMAP.[11]
2001 Long Bets Foundation is found as a 501(c)(3) public education nonprofit foundation by The Long Now Foundation.[12]
2002 Yahoo starts experimenting with prediction markets internally.[13]
2003 Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.[14]
2003 DARPA's FutureMAP program terminates.[15]
2004 James Surowiecki publishes the book "The Wisdom of Crowds", championing the idea of prediction markets.[16]
2004 HedgeStreet is found with the approval of the CFTC.[17]
2005 An article in Nature states how Eli Lilly and Company used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.[18]
2005 Google announces that it has been using prediction markets internally.[19]
2006 The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act comes into effect in the US, prohibiting "gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the Internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law."[20]
2006 Inkling, a company offering prediction markets tools for businesses, is found.[21]
2006 The Ford Motor Company starts using a prediction market internally.[22]
2007 First issue of the Journal of Prediction Markets, with Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School as editor.[23]
2007 Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, with the goals of promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.[24]
2008 iPredict launches with the approval of the New Zealand Securities Commission.[25]
2008 Smarkets, a betting exchange, launches.[26]
2008 The CFTC solicits comments on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.[27]
2010 NewsFutures becomes Lumenogic, a company offering collective intelligence services to firms.[28]
2010 IARPA's Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches.[29]
2011 DAGGRE launches as part of IARPA's ACE program.[30]
2011 The US Department of Justice releases a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."[31]
2012 CFTC charges Intrade and TEN with violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and filing false forms.[32]
2012 Bitbet.us becomes available.[33]
2012 David Pennock, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, announces PredictWiseQ, an implementation of combinatorial prediction market design.[34]
2013 First commit on TruthCoin (later called Hivemind), a Bitcoin-based decentralized prediction market.[35]
2013 The Good Judgement Project wins IARPA's ACE program.[36]
2014 CFTC provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to operate a not-for-profit Market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to U.S. persons.[37]
2014 Microsoft launches Prediction Lab.[38]
2014 DAGGRE stops. Robin Hanson annonces SciCast as part of IARPA's ForeST program.[39]
2014 Launch of Fairlay, a Bitcoin-based prediction market.[40]
2014 Lumenogic (previously NewsFutures) launches Hypermind, a play-money prediction market, leveraging techniques built for the Good Judgment Project.[41]
2015 Publication of a paper on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.[42]
2015 Launch of Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions.[43]
2015 Suspension of SciCast after losing IARPA funding.[44]
2015 Jack Peterson and Joey Krug register the Forecast Foundation OU in Estonia, the parent organization of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on Ethereum.[45]
2015 Martin Köppelmann announces Gnosis, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.[46]
2015 Publication of a paper on the use of internal prediction markets at Google, Ford, and a pseudonymous materials & energy conglomerate.[47]
2016 iPredict closes after Associate Justice Minister Simon Bridges refused to grant it an exemption from the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act, declaring that it was a "legitimate money laundering risk" because of the lack of customer due diligence.[48]
2016 Microsoft silently phases out Prediction Lab.[49]
2017 Founding and ICO of STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market.[50]
2017 The Winton Group (British investment management firm) starts climatepredictionmarket.com, a prediction market for climate prediction.[51]
2018 Federal Court in District of Columbia orders Intrade and TEN to pay $3 million Civil Monetary Penalty for illegally trading binary options and violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order.[52]
2018 Official launch of Augur, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.[53]
2018 Launch of Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news.[54]

Meta information on the timeline

The initial version of the timeline was written by Orpheus_Lummis.

Funding information for this timeline is available.

Feedback and comments

Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:

Timeline update strategy

Review yearly the advances of the field and historical material that is uncovered.

See also

References

  1. Baumgartner, Frederic J. (2003), "The Creation of the Conclave", Behind Locked Doors, Palgrave Macmillan US, pp. 39–58, ISBN 9781403969620, retrieved 2018-09-04 
  2. Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2013-11-12). "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective". doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029. 
  3. Walker, J. (1999-02-01). "GAMBLING AND VENETIAN NOBLEMEN c. 1500-1700". Past & Present. 162 (1): 28–69. ISSN 0031-2746. doi:10.1093/past/162.1.28. 
  4. Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2013-11-12). "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective". doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029. 
  5. "Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act" (PDF). 
  6. "Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"". Archived from the original on 2012-11-30. 
  7. "Robin Hanson's Bio". 2015-02-19. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  8. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-08-26. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  9. "Sport in the City". 2013-06-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  10. "NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info". 2000-12-16. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  11. "POINTS OF CONTACT". 2002-01-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  12. "Wayback Machine". 2002-10-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  13. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-06-22. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  14. "Senator Ron Wyden". 2003-08-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  15. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2003-08-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  16. Surowiecki, James (2004-06-03). The Wisdom of Crowds. Little, Brown. ISBN 9780316861731. 
  17. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-08-26. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  18. "Wisdom of the crowd". Nature. 438 (7066): 281–281. 2005-11-17. ISSN 0028-0836. doi:10.1038/438281a. 
  19. "Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work". 2005-10-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  20. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2010-06-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  21. "Inkling | Crunchbase". Crunchbase. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  22. Montgomery, Thomas A.; Stieg, Paul M.; Cavaretta, Michael J.; Moraal, Paul E. (2013-08-11). "Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts". ACM: 1384–1392. ISBN 9781450321747. doi:10.1145/2487575.2488212. 
  23. "Vol 1, No 1 (2007)". 2013-03-08. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  24. "PMIA – Come to Know". 2017-04-29. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  25. "Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008 (SR 2008/285) – New Zealand Legislation". 2011-04-07. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  26. "About « Smarkets Blog". 2008-04-02. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  27. "Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts". Federal Register. 2008-05-07. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  28. "Lumenogic: Collective Intelligence Solutions for Senior Leadership". 2010-07-03. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  29. "Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities". 2012-09-16. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  30. "DAGGRE". 2012-01-27. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  31. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2014-08-15. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  32. "CFTC Charges Ireland-based "Prediction Market" Proprietors Intrade and TEN with Violating the CFTC's Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and Filing False Forms with the CFTC". 2012-12-02. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  33. "Bitcoin Affiliate Programs.". 2014-04-09. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  34. "Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog". 2012-10-20. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  35. "First Commit · psztorc/Truthcoin@d54e621". GitHub. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  36. "Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)". 2013-11-27. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  37. "CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons". 2014-11-03. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  38. "Why Microsoft Prediction Lab | PredictWise". 2015-09-19. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  39. "Overcoming Bias : Announcing: SciCast". 2014-05-03. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  40. "FAIRLAY.COM - New Bitcoin Prediction Market". 2014-04-09. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  41. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-08-31. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  42. Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus (2015-12-15). "Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 112 (50): 15343–15347. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 4687569Freely accessible. PMID 26553988. doi:10.1073/pnas.1516179112. 
  43. "Metaculus". 2015-12-24. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  44. "So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish! | The Official SciCast Blog". 2015-06-09. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  45. "Wayback Machine". 2018-08-30. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  46. "r/ethereum - Groupgnosis Prediction Market is Live; Trading has Begun.". reddit. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  47. Cowgill, Bo; Zitzewitz, Eric (2015-04-02). "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X". The Review of Economic Studies. 82 (4): 1309–1341. ISSN 0034-6527. doi:10.1093/restud/rdv014. 
  48. "iPredict Message - iPredict". 2017-09-29. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  49. "Wayback Machine". web.archive.org. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  50. "STOX – The Prediction Platform's ICO Begins Now! - NEWSBTC". 2017-08-02. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  51. "Winton provides market for those who want to wager on the weather - Pensions & Investments". 2018-01-30. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  52. "Federal Court in District of Columbia Orders "Prediction Market" Companies to Pay $3 Million Civil Monetary Penalty for Illegally Trading Binary Options and Violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order | U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION". 2018-08-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  53. "Augur Launches – Augur – Medium". 2018-07-10. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  54. "The Fame Project is Letting People Bet on the Future". TGDaily. Retrieved 2018-09-04.