Timeline of prediction markets

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This is a timeline of prediction markets.

Big picture

Time period Development summary
Up to the 16th century "Wagering on the papal election was an old practice by 1503, but the Venetian ambassadors' reports in Sanuto, I Diarii, are the first sources on the odds."[1]
16th & 17th century In Italian city-states, betting is prevalent regarding the choice of government officials and on papal selection.[2][3]
18th to early 20th century Various instances of political betting on the timing and winning party of Parliamentary elections in Britain, on the outcomes of local and national elections in Canada, and on Presidential and Congressional winners in the United States.[4]

Full timeline

Year Event type Event
1961 Legal The Federal Wire Act becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire communication facility for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.[5]
1988 Launch Iowa Political Stock Market launches during the US presidential election.[6]
1990 Corporate At Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson uses the first known corporate prediction market.[7]
1999 Performance Hollywood Stock Exchange's NominOptions predicts 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.[8]
2000 Launch Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start Intrade.com, a prediction market charging a monthly fee.[9]
2000 Launch NewsFutures, a play-money prediction market, is found by Émile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick.[10]
2001 Research DARPA launches a call for proposal for the development of decision markets, later known as FutureMAP.[11]
2001 Launch Long Bets Foundation is found as a 501(c)(3) public education nonprofit foundation by The Long Now Foundation.[12]
2002 Corporate Yahoo starts experimenting with prediction markets internally.[13]
2003 Discontinuation Two US senators call for the immediate end of FutureMAP.[14]
2003 Discontinuation DARPA's FutureMAP program terminates.[15]
2004 Publication James Surowiecki publishes the book "The Wisdom of Crowds", championing the idea of prediction markets.[16]
2004 Launch HedgeStreet is found with the approval of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).[17]
2005 Research An article in Nature states how Eli Lilly and Company used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.[18]
2005 Corporate Google announces that it has been using prediction markets internally.[19]
2006 Legal The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act comes into effect in the US, prohibiting "gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the Internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law."[20]
2006 Corporate Inkling, a company offering prediction markets tools for businesses, is found.[21]
2006 Corporate The Ford Motor Company starts using a prediction market internally.[22]
2007 Publication First issue of the Journal of Prediction Markets, with Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School as editor.[23]
2007 Corporate Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, with the goals of promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.[24]
2008 Launch iPredict launches with the approval of the Securities Commission of New Zealand.[25]
2008 Launch Smarkets, a betting exchange, launches.[26]
2008 Legal The CFTC solicits comments on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.[27]
2010 Corporate NewsFutures becomes Lumenogic, a company offering collective intelligence services to firms.[28]
2010 Research IARPA's Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches.[29]
2011 Launch DAGGRE launches as part of IARPA's ACE program.[30]
2011 Legal The US Department of Justice releases a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."[31]
2012 Legal CFTC charges Intrade and TEN with violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and filing false forms.[32]
2012 Launch Bitbet.us becomes available.[33]
2012 Launch David Pennock, Principal Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research in New York City, announces PredictWiseQ, an implementation of combinatorial prediction market design.[34]
2013 Launch First commit on TruthCoin (later called Hivemind), a Bitcoin-based decentralized prediction market.[35]
2013 Performance The Good Judgment Project wins IARPA's ACE program.[36]
2014 Legal CFTC provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to operate a not-for-profit market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to US persons.[37]
2014 Launch Microsoft launches Prediction Lab.[38]
2014 Discontinuation DAGGRE stops. Robin Hanson annonces SciCast as part of IARPA's ForeST program.[39]
2014 Launch Launch of Fairlay, a Bitcoin-based prediction market.[40]
2014 Launch Lumenogic (previously NewsFutures) launches Hypermind, a play-money prediction market, leveraging techniques built for the Good Judgment Project.[41]
2015 Research Publication of a paper on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.[42]
2015 Launch Launch of Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions.[43]
2015 Discontinuation Suspension of SciCast after losing IARPA funding.[44]
2015 Launch Jack Peterson and Joey Krug register the Forecast Foundation OU in Estonia, the parent organization of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on Ethereum.[45]
2015 Launch Martin Köppelmann announces Gnosis, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.[46]
2015 Corporate Publication of a paper on the use of internal prediction markets at Google, Ford, and a pseudonymous materials & energy conglomerate.[47]
2016 Discontinuation iPredict closes after Associate Justice Minister Simon Bridges refused to grant it an exemption from the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act, declaring that it was a "legitimate money laundering risk" because of the lack of customer due diligence.[48]
2016 Discontinuation Microsoft silently phases out Prediction Lab.[49]
2017 Launch Founding and initial coin offering of STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market.[50]
2017 Launch The Winton Group (British investment management firm) starts climatepredictionmarket.com, a prediction market for climate prediction.[51]
2018 Legal The Federal Court in District of Columbia orders Intrade and TEN to pay $3 million Civil Monetary Penalty for illegally trading binary options and violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order.[52]
2018 Launch Official launch of Augur, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum.[53]
2018 Launch Launch of Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news.[54]

Meta information on the timeline

The initial version of the timeline was written by Orpheus_Lummis.

Funding information for this timeline is available.

Feedback and comments

Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:

Timeline update strategy

Review yearly the advances of the field and historical material that is uncovered.

See also


  1. Baumgartner, Frederic J. (2003), "The Creation of the Conclave", Behind Locked Doors, Palgrave Macmillan US, pp. 39–58, ISBN 9781403969620, retrieved 2018-09-04 
  2. Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2013-11-12). "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective". doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029. 
  3. Walker, J. (1999-02-01). "GAMBLING AND VENETIAN NOBLEMEN c. 1500-1700". Past & Present. 162 (1): 28–69. ISSN 0031-2746. doi:10.1093/past/162.1.28. 
  4. Rhode, Paul; Strumpf, Koleman (2013-11-12). "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective". doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029. 
  5. "Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act" (PDF). 
  6. "Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"". Archived from the original on 2012-11-30. 
  7. "Robin Hanson's Bio". 2015-02-19. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  8. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-08-26. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  9. "Sport in the City". 2013-06-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  10. "NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info". 2000-12-16. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  11. "POINTS OF CONTACT". 2002-01-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  12. "Wayback Machine". 2002-10-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  13. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-06-22. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  14. "Senator Ron Wyden". 2003-08-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  15. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2003-08-11. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  16. Surowiecki, James (2004-06-03). The Wisdom of Crowds. Little, Brown. ISBN 9780316861731. 
  17. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-08-26. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  18. "Wisdom of the crowd". Nature. 438 (7066): 281–281. 2005-11-17. ISSN 0028-0836. doi:10.1038/438281a. 
  19. "Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work". 2005-10-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  20. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2010-06-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  21. "Inkling | Crunchbase". Crunchbase. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  22. Montgomery, Thomas A.; Stieg, Paul M.; Cavaretta, Michael J.; Moraal, Paul E. (2013-08-11). "Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts". ACM: 1384–1392. ISBN 9781450321747. doi:10.1145/2487575.2488212. 
  23. "Vol 1, No 1 (2007)". 2013-03-08. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  24. "PMIA – Come to Know". 2017-04-29. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  25. "Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008 (SR 2008/285) – New Zealand Legislation". 2011-04-07. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  26. "About « Smarkets Blog". 2008-04-02. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  27. "Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts". Federal Register. 2008-05-07. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  28. "Lumenogic: Collective Intelligence Solutions for Senior Leadership". 2010-07-03. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  29. "Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities". 2012-09-16. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  30. "DAGGRE". 2012-01-27. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  31. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2014-08-15. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  32. "CFTC Charges Ireland-based "Prediction Market" Proprietors Intrade and TEN with Violating the CFTC's Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and Filing False Forms with the CFTC". 2012-12-02. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  33. "Bitcoin Affiliate Programs.". 2014-04-09. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  34. "Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog". 2012-10-20. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  35. "First Commit · psztorc/Truthcoin@d54e621". GitHub. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  36. "Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)". 2013-11-27. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  37. "CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons". 2014-11-03. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  38. "Why Microsoft Prediction Lab | PredictWise". 2015-09-19. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  39. "Overcoming Bias : Announcing: SciCast". 2014-05-03. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  40. "FAIRLAY.COM - New Bitcoin Prediction Market". 2014-04-09. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  41. "Wayback Machine" (PDF). 2018-08-31. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  42. Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus (2015-12-15). "Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 112 (50): 15343–15347. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 4687569Freely accessible. PMID 26553988. doi:10.1073/pnas.1516179112. 
  43. "Metaculus". 2015-12-24. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  44. "So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish! | The Official SciCast Blog". 2015-06-09. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  45. "Wayback Machine". 2018-08-30. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  46. "r/ethereum - Groupgnosis Prediction Market is Live; Trading has Begun.". reddit. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  47. Cowgill, Bo; Zitzewitz, Eric (2015-04-02). "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X". The Review of Economic Studies. 82 (4): 1309–1341. ISSN 0034-6527. doi:10.1093/restud/rdv014. 
  48. "iPredict Message - iPredict". 2017-09-29. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  49. "Wayback Machine". web.archive.org. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  50. "STOX – The Prediction Platform's ICO Begins Now! - NEWSBTC". 2017-08-02. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  51. "Winton provides market for those who want to wager on the weather - Pensions & Investments". 2018-01-30. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  52. "Federal Court in District of Columbia Orders "Prediction Market" Companies to Pay $3 Million Civil Monetary Penalty for Illegally Trading Binary Options and Violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order | U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION". 2018-08-01. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  53. "Augur Launches – Augur – Medium". 2018-07-10. Retrieved 2018-09-04. 
  54. "The Fame Project is Letting People Bet on the Future". TGDaily. Retrieved 2018-09-04.