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Created page with "This is a '''timeline of prediction markets'''. == Big picture == {| class="wikitable" !Time period !Development summary |- |Up to the 16th century |"Wagering on the papal e..."
This is a '''timeline of prediction markets'''.
== Big picture ==
{| class="wikitable"
!Time period
!Development summary
|-
|Up to the 16th century
|"Wagering on the papal election was an old practice by 1503, but the Venetian ambassadors' reports in Sanuto, I Diarii, are the first sources on the odds."<ref>{{Citation|last=Baumgartner|first=Frederic J.|title=The Creation of the Conclave|date=2003|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-11014-5_3|work=Behind Locked Doors|pages=39–58|publisher=Palgrave Macmillan US|isbn=9781403969620|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|16th & 17th century
|Betting was prevalent, in Italian city-states, on the choice of government officials and on papal selection.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Walker|first=J.|date=1999-02-01|title=GAMBLING AND VENETIAN NOBLEMEN c. 1500-1700|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/past/162.1.28|journal=Past & Present|volume=162|issue=1|pages=28–69|doi=10.1093/past/162.1.28|issn=0031-2746}}</ref>
|-
|18th to early 20th century
|Various instances of political betting on the timing and winning party of Parliamentary elections in Britain, the outcomes of local and national elections in Canada, and Presidential and Congressional winners in the United States.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref>
|-
|}
== Full timeline ==
{| class="sortable wikitable"
!Year
!Month and date
!Event
|-
|1961
|
|The ''Federal Wire Act'' becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire communication facility for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-75/pdf/STATUTE-75-Pg491.pdf|title=Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|1988
|
|Iowa Political Stock Market is introduced during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|1990
|
|At Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson used the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|1999
|
|Hollywood Stock Exchange's NominOptions predicted 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194335/https://www.hsx.com/about/pr_oscar_nom_2006.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2000
|
|Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start Intrade.com, a prediction market, charging a monthly fee.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130601090502/https://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Sport-in-the-City|title=Sport in the City|date=2013-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2000
|
|NewsFutures, a play-money prediction market, is founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20001216131100/http://ps.newsfutures.com:80/index.html|title=NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info|date=2000-12-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2001
|
|DARPA launches a call for proposal for the development of decision markets, later known as FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20020111195139/http://www.acq.osd.mil/sadbu/sbir/solicitations/sbir012/darpa012.htm|title=POINTS OF CONTACT|date=2002-01-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2001
|
|Long Bets Foundation was founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021001000000*/http://longbets.org/about/|title=Wayback Machine|date=2002-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2002
|
|Yahoo started experimenting with prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180622171957/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/idc/groups/public/@lrfederalregister/documents/frcomment/08-004c029.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-06-22|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2003
|
|Two US senators called for the immediate end of FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811195116/http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html|title=Senator Ron Wyden|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2003
|
|DARPA's FutureMAP program is terminated.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811045100/http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/futuremap-darpa.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2004
|
|James Surowiecki published the book "The Wisdom of Crowds", championing the idea of prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL9414725M/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds|title=The Wisdom of Crowds|last=Surowiecki|first=James|date=2004-06-03|publisher=Little, Brown|isbn=9780316861731}}</ref>
|-
|2004
|
|HedgeStreet was founded and approved by the CFTC.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194606/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/files/anr/anr2004.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2005
|
|An article in Nature stated how Eli Lilly and Company used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=|first=|date=2005-11-17|title=Wisdom of the crowd|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/438281a|journal=Nature|volume=438|issue=7066|pages=281–281|doi=10.1038/438281a|issn=0028-0836|via=}}</ref>
|-
|2005
|
|Google announced that it has been using prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051001072152/https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html|title=Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work|date=2005-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2006
|
|The ''Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act'' comes into effect in the US, prohibiting "gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the Internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100601165540/https://www.ots.treas.gov/_files/422372.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2010-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2006
|
|Inkling, a company offering prediction markets tools for businesses, is founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/inkling#section-overview|title=Inkling {{!}} Crunchbase|website=Crunchbase|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2006
|
|The Ford Motor Company started using a prediction market internally.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Montgomery|first=Thomas A.|last2=Stieg|first2=Paul M.|last3=Cavaretta|first3=Michael J.|last4=Moraal|first4=Paul E.|date=2013-08-11|title=Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts|url=http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2487575.2488212|publisher=ACM|pages=1384–1392|doi=10.1145/2487575.2488212|isbn=9781450321747}}</ref>
|-
|2007
|
|First issue of the Journal of Prediction Markets, edited by Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School, is issued.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130308150634/http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/issue/view/49|title=Vol 1, No 1 (2007)|date=2013-03-08|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2007
|
|Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, tasked with promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170429103454/http://www.cometoknow.com/prediction-market-industry-association|title=PMIA – Come to Know|date=2017-04-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|
|iPredict launches and is approved by the New Zealand Securities Commission.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110407211908/http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2008/0285/latest/whole.html|title=Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008 (SR 2008/285) – New Zealand Legislation|date=2011-04-07|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|
|Smarkets, a betting exchange, launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080402232630/http://blog.smarkets.com/about/|title=About « Smarkets Blog|date=2008-04-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|
|The CFTC is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2008/05/07/E8-9981/concept-release-on-the-appropriate-regulatory-treatment-of-event-contracts|title=Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts|date=2008-05-07|work=Federal Register|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2010
|
|NewsFutures becomes Lumenogic offering collective intelligence services to firms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100703052803/http://www.lumenogic.com:80/www/newsfutures.html|title=Lumenogic: Collective Intelligence Solutions for Senior Leadership|date=2010-07-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2010
|
|IARPA's Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120916135741/https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title=Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities|date=2012-09-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2011
|
|DAGGRE launches as part of IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120127194416/http://daggre.org:80/info/|title=DAGGRE|date=2012-01-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2011
|
|The US Department of Justice released a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140815211239/https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/2011/09/31/state-lotteries-opinion.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2014-08-15|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|
|CFTC charges Intrade and TEN with violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and filing false forms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121202055455/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6423-12|title=CFTC Charges Ireland-based “Prediction Market” Proprietors Intrade and TEN with Violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and Filing False Forms with the CFTC|date=2012-12-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|
|Bitbet.us becomes available.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140409100642/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=120757.0|title=Bitcoin Affiliate Programs.|date=2014-04-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|
|PredictWiseQ is announced, implementing combinatorial prediction market design.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121020123214/http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/|title=Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog|date=2012-10-20|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2013
|
|First commit on TruthCoin (later called Hivemind), a Bitcoin-based decentralized prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://github.com/psztorc/Truthcoin/commit/d54e6216b28674e79f53b5d99dc226a896120eb3|title=First Commit · psztorc/Truthcoin@d54e621|website=GitHub|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2013
|
|The Good Judgement Project wins IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131127133205/https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/|title=Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)|date=2013-11-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|
|CFTC provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, NZ, to operate a not-for-profit Market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to U.S. persons.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141103175945/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7047-14|title=CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons|date=2014-11-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|
|Microsoft launches Prediction Lab.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150919035714/http://www.predictwise.com/node/3765|title=Why Microsoft Prediction Lab {{!}} PredictWise|date=2015-09-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|
|DAGGRE stops. SciCast is announced as part of IARPA's ForeST program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140503011442/http://www.overcomingbias.com/2014/01/announcingscicast.html|title=Overcoming Bias : Announcing: SciCast|date=2014-05-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|
|Fairlay, a Bitcoin-based prediction market, is launched.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140409034120/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=433086.0|title=FAIRLAY.COM - New Bitcoin Prediction Market|date=2014-04-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|
|Lumenogic (previously NewsFutures) launches Hypermind, a play-money prediction market, leveraging techniques built for the Good Judgment Project.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831182258/https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2015/02/Servan-Schreiber-and-Atanasov-CI-2015-Abstract.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-31|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|A paper is published on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Dreber|first=Anna|last2=Pfeiffer|first2=Thomas|last3=Almenberg|first3=Johan|last4=Isaksson|first4=Siri|last5=Wilson|first5=Brad|last6=Chen|first6=Yiling|last7=Nosek|first7=Brian A.|last8=Johannesson|first8=Magnus|date=2015-12-15|title=Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research|url=http://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=112|issue=50|pages=15343–15347|doi=10.1073/pnas.1516179112|issn=0027-8424|pmc=4687569|pmid=26553988}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions, was founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151224181609/https://www.metaculus.com|title=Metaculus|date=2015-12-24|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|SciCast is suspended after losing IARPA funding.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150609013153/http://blog.scicast.org/2015/06/08/so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-fish/|title=So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish! {{!}} The Official SciCast Blog|date=2015-06-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|Forecast Foundation OU, parent of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on Ethereum, is registered in Estonia.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830180936/https://www.infoproff.com/en/companies/regcard/EST7851930/12894333|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|Gnosis, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum, was launched.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3i9i8m/groupgnosis_prediction_market_is_live_trading_has/|title=r/ethereum - Groupgnosis Prediction Market is Live; Trading has Begun.|website=reddit|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|A paper is published on the use of internal prediction markets at Google, Ford, and a pseudonymous materials & energy conglomerate.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Cowgill|first=Bo|last2=Zitzewitz|first2=Eric|date=2015-04-02|title=Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X|url=https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv014|journal=The Review of Economic Studies|language=en|volume=82|issue=4|pages=1309–1341|doi=10.1093/restud/rdv014|issn=0034-6527}}</ref>
|-
|2016
|
|iPredict closes after Associate Justice Minister Simon Bridges refused to grant it an exemption from the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act, declaring that it was a "legitimate money laundering risk" because of the lack of customer due diligence.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170929140157/http://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=message|title=iPredict Message - iPredict|date=2017-09-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2016
|
|Microsoft silently phases out Prediction Lab.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://prediction.microsoft.com/|title=Wayback Machine|website=web.archive.org|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2017
|
|STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market, was founded and ICOed.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802121404/https://www.newsbtc.com/2017/08/02/stox-prediction-platforms-ico-begins-now/|title=STOX – The Prediction Platform’s ICO Begins Now! - NEWSBTC|date=2017-08-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2017
|
|The Winton Group (British investment management firm) starts climatepredictionmarket.com, a prediction market for climate prediction.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180130145737/http://www.pionline.com/article/20171030/PRINT/171039996/winton-provides-market-for-those-who-want-to-wager-on-the-weather|title=Winton provides market for those who want to wager on the weather - Pensions & Investments|date=2018-01-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018
|
|Federal Court in District of Columbia orders Intrade and TEN to pay $3 million Civil Monetary Penalty for illegally trading binary options and violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180801212926/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7758-18|title=Federal Court in District of Columbia Orders “Prediction Market” Companies to Pay $3 Million Civil Monetary Penalty for Illegally Trading Binary Options and Violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order {{!}} U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION|date=2018-08-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018
|
|Augur, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum, officially launched.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180710084918/https://medium.com/@AugurProject/augur-launches-794fa7f88c6a|title=Augur Launches – Augur – Medium|date=2018-07-10|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018
|
|Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news, launched.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831180707/https://www.tgdaily.com/games-and-entertainment/the-fame-project-is-letting-people-bet-on-the-future#bypass-sw|title=The Fame Project is Letting People Bet on the Future|work=TGDaily|access-date=2018-09-04|language=en}}</ref>
|}
== Meta information on the timeline ==
The initial version of the timeline was written by [[User:Orpheus Lummis|Orpheus_Lummis]].
{{funding info}} is available.
=== Feedback and comments ===
Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:
* TBD reddit
* TBD facebook
* by emailing [mailto:o@orpheuslummis.com o@orpheuslummis.com]
=== Timeline update strategy ===
Review yearly the advances of the field and historical material that is uncovered.
== See also ==
TBD
== External links ==
TBD
== References ==
{{Reflist|30em}}
== Big picture ==
{| class="wikitable"
!Time period
!Development summary
|-
|Up to the 16th century
|"Wagering on the papal election was an old practice by 1503, but the Venetian ambassadors' reports in Sanuto, I Diarii, are the first sources on the odds."<ref>{{Citation|last=Baumgartner|first=Frederic J.|title=The Creation of the Conclave|date=2003|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-11014-5_3|work=Behind Locked Doors|pages=39–58|publisher=Palgrave Macmillan US|isbn=9781403969620|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|16th & 17th century
|Betting was prevalent, in Italian city-states, on the choice of government officials and on papal selection.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Walker|first=J.|date=1999-02-01|title=GAMBLING AND VENETIAN NOBLEMEN c. 1500-1700|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/past/162.1.28|journal=Past & Present|volume=162|issue=1|pages=28–69|doi=10.1093/past/162.1.28|issn=0031-2746}}</ref>
|-
|18th to early 20th century
|Various instances of political betting on the timing and winning party of Parliamentary elections in Britain, the outcomes of local and national elections in Canada, and Presidential and Congressional winners in the United States.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Rhode|first=Paul|last2=Strumpf|first2=Koleman|date=2013-11-12|title=The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective|url=http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199797912.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199797912-e-029}}</ref>
|-
|}
== Full timeline ==
{| class="sortable wikitable"
!Year
!Month and date
!Event
|-
|1961
|
|The ''Federal Wire Act'' becomes effective in the US, outlawing using wire communication facility for betting or wagering, to prevent interstate gambling.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-75/pdf/STATUTE-75-Pg491.pdf|title=Text of the 1961 Federal Wire Act|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=|archive-date=|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|1988
|
|Iowa Political Stock Market is introduced during the US presidential election.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|title=Wall Street Journal reprint of "Iowa Market Takes Stock of Presidential Candidates"|last=|first=|date=|website=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121130193428/http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/media/wsj.html|archive-date=2012-11-30|dead-url=|access-date=}}</ref>
|-
|1990
|
|At Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson used the first known corporate prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150219013504/http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio.html|title=Robin Hanson's Bio|date=2015-02-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|1999
|
|Hollywood Stock Exchange's NominOptions predicted 32 out of 38 Oscar Nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194335/https://www.hsx.com/about/pr_oscar_nom_2006.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2000
|
|Ron Bernstein and Sean McNamara start Intrade.com, a prediction market, charging a monthly fee.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130601090502/https://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Sport-in-the-City|title=Sport in the City|date=2013-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2000
|
|NewsFutures, a play-money prediction market, is founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20001216131100/http://ps.newsfutures.com:80/index.html|title=NewsFutures.com : La Bourse de l'Info|date=2000-12-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2001
|
|DARPA launches a call for proposal for the development of decision markets, later known as FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20020111195139/http://www.acq.osd.mil/sadbu/sbir/solicitations/sbir012/darpa012.htm|title=POINTS OF CONTACT|date=2002-01-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2001
|
|Long Bets Foundation was founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021001000000*/http://longbets.org/about/|title=Wayback Machine|date=2002-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2002
|
|Yahoo started experimenting with prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180622171957/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/idc/groups/public/@lrfederalregister/documents/frcomment/08-004c029.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-06-22|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2003
|
|Two US senators called for the immediate end of FutureMAP.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811195116/http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html|title=Senator Ron Wyden|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2003
|
|DARPA's FutureMAP program is terminated.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20030811045100/http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/futuremap-darpa.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2003-08-11|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2004
|
|James Surowiecki published the book "The Wisdom of Crowds", championing the idea of prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://openlibrary.org/books/OL9414725M/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds|title=The Wisdom of Crowds|last=Surowiecki|first=James|date=2004-06-03|publisher=Little, Brown|isbn=9780316861731}}</ref>
|-
|2004
|
|HedgeStreet was founded and approved by the CFTC.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826194606/https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/files/anr/anr2004.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-26|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2005
|
|An article in Nature stated how Eli Lilly and Company used prediction markets to help predict which development drugs might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials, by using internal markets to forecast outcomes of drug research and development efforts.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=|first=|date=2005-11-17|title=Wisdom of the crowd|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/438281a|journal=Nature|volume=438|issue=7066|pages=281–281|doi=10.1038/438281a|issn=0028-0836|via=}}</ref>
|-
|2005
|
|Google announced that it has been using prediction markets internally.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20051001072152/https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html|title=Official Google Blog: Putting crowd wisdom to work|date=2005-10-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2006
|
|The ''Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act'' comes into effect in the US, prohibiting "gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the Internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100601165540/https://www.ots.treas.gov/_files/422372.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2010-06-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2006
|
|Inkling, a company offering prediction markets tools for businesses, is founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/inkling#section-overview|title=Inkling {{!}} Crunchbase|website=Crunchbase|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2006
|
|The Ford Motor Company started using a prediction market internally.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Montgomery|first=Thomas A.|last2=Stieg|first2=Paul M.|last3=Cavaretta|first3=Michael J.|last4=Moraal|first4=Paul E.|date=2013-08-11|title=Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts|url=http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2487575.2488212|publisher=ACM|pages=1384–1392|doi=10.1145/2487575.2488212|isbn=9781450321747}}</ref>
|-
|2007
|
|First issue of the Journal of Prediction Markets, edited by Leighton Vaughan Williams of the Nottingham Business School, is issued.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130308150634/http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/issue/view/49|title=Vol 1, No 1 (2007)|date=2013-03-08|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2007
|
|Multiple companies form the Prediction Market Industry Association, tasked with promoting awareness, education, and validation for prediction markets.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170429103454/http://www.cometoknow.com/prediction-market-industry-association|title=PMIA – Come to Know|date=2017-04-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|
|iPredict launches and is approved by the New Zealand Securities Commission.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110407211908/http://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2008/0285/latest/whole.html|title=Futures Contracts (iPredict Limited) Declaration and Exemption Notice 2008 (SR 2008/285) – New Zealand Legislation|date=2011-04-07|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|
|Smarkets, a betting exchange, launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080402232630/http://blog.smarkets.com/about/|title=About « Smarkets Blog|date=2008-04-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2008
|
|The CFTC is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2008/05/07/E8-9981/concept-release-on-the-appropriate-regulatory-treatment-of-event-contracts|title=Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts|date=2008-05-07|work=Federal Register|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2010
|
|NewsFutures becomes Lumenogic offering collective intelligence services to firms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100703052803/http://www.lumenogic.com:80/www/newsfutures.html|title=Lumenogic: Collective Intelligence Solutions for Senior Leadership|date=2010-07-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2010
|
|IARPA's Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program launches.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120916135741/https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title=Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities|date=2012-09-16|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2011
|
|DAGGRE launches as part of IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120127194416/http://daggre.org:80/info/|title=DAGGRE|date=2012-01-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2011
|
|The US Department of Justice released a formal legal opinion on the scope of the Wire Act of 1961 concluding, "interstate transmissions of wire communications that do not relate to a 'sporting event or contest' fall outside the reach of the Wire Act."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140815211239/https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/2011/09/31/state-lotteries-opinion.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2014-08-15|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|
|CFTC charges Intrade and TEN with violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and filing false forms.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121202055455/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6423-12|title=CFTC Charges Ireland-based “Prediction Market” Proprietors Intrade and TEN with Violating the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban and Filing False Forms with the CFTC|date=2012-12-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|
|Bitbet.us becomes available.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140409100642/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=120757.0|title=Bitcoin Affiliate Programs.|date=2014-04-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2012
|
|PredictWiseQ is announced, implementing combinatorial prediction market design.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121020123214/http://blog.oddhead.com/2012/10/06/predictwiseq/|title=Raise your WiseQ to the 57th power » Oddhead Blog|date=2012-10-20|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2013
|
|First commit on TruthCoin (later called Hivemind), a Bitcoin-based decentralized prediction market.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://github.com/psztorc/Truthcoin/commit/d54e6216b28674e79f53b5d99dc226a896120eb3|title=First Commit · psztorc/Truthcoin@d54e621|website=GitHub|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2013
|
|The Good Judgement Project wins IARPA's ACE program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131127133205/https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/|title=Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)|date=2013-11-27|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|
|CFTC provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, NZ, to operate a not-for-profit Market for event contracts and to offer event contracts to U.S. persons.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141103175945/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7047-14|title=CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons|date=2014-11-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|
|Microsoft launches Prediction Lab.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150919035714/http://www.predictwise.com/node/3765|title=Why Microsoft Prediction Lab {{!}} PredictWise|date=2015-09-19|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|
|DAGGRE stops. SciCast is announced as part of IARPA's ForeST program.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140503011442/http://www.overcomingbias.com/2014/01/announcingscicast.html|title=Overcoming Bias : Announcing: SciCast|date=2014-05-03|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|
|Fairlay, a Bitcoin-based prediction market, is launched.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140409034120/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=433086.0|title=FAIRLAY.COM - New Bitcoin Prediction Market|date=2014-04-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2014
|
|Lumenogic (previously NewsFutures) launches Hypermind, a play-money prediction market, leveraging techniques built for the Good Judgment Project.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831182258/https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2015/02/Servan-Schreiber-and-Atanasov-CI-2015-Abstract.pdf|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-31|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|A paper is published on the use of prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Dreber|first=Anna|last2=Pfeiffer|first2=Thomas|last3=Almenberg|first3=Johan|last4=Isaksson|first4=Siri|last5=Wilson|first5=Brad|last6=Chen|first6=Yiling|last7=Nosek|first7=Brian A.|last8=Johannesson|first8=Magnus|date=2015-12-15|title=Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research|url=http://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|language=en|volume=112|issue=50|pages=15343–15347|doi=10.1073/pnas.1516179112|issn=0027-8424|pmc=4687569|pmid=26553988}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|Metaculus, a web community aiming at generating accurate predictions, was founded.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151224181609/https://www.metaculus.com|title=Metaculus|date=2015-12-24|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|SciCast is suspended after losing IARPA funding.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150609013153/http://blog.scicast.org/2015/06/08/so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-fish/|title=So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish! {{!}} The Official SciCast Blog|date=2015-06-09|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|Forecast Foundation OU, parent of the decentralized prediction market Augur based on Ethereum, is registered in Estonia.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830180936/https://www.infoproff.com/en/companies/regcard/EST7851930/12894333|title=Wayback Machine|date=2018-08-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|Gnosis, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum, was launched.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3i9i8m/groupgnosis_prediction_market_is_live_trading_has/|title=r/ethereum - Groupgnosis Prediction Market is Live; Trading has Begun.|website=reddit|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2015
|
|A paper is published on the use of internal prediction markets at Google, Ford, and a pseudonymous materials & energy conglomerate.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Cowgill|first=Bo|last2=Zitzewitz|first2=Eric|date=2015-04-02|title=Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X|url=https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv014|journal=The Review of Economic Studies|language=en|volume=82|issue=4|pages=1309–1341|doi=10.1093/restud/rdv014|issn=0034-6527}}</ref>
|-
|2016
|
|iPredict closes after Associate Justice Minister Simon Bridges refused to grant it an exemption from the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act, declaring that it was a "legitimate money laundering risk" because of the lack of customer due diligence.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170929140157/http://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=message|title=iPredict Message - iPredict|date=2017-09-29|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2016
|
|Microsoft silently phases out Prediction Lab.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://prediction.microsoft.com/|title=Wayback Machine|website=web.archive.org|language=en|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2017
|
|STOX, an Ethereum-based prediction market, was founded and ICOed.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802121404/https://www.newsbtc.com/2017/08/02/stox-prediction-platforms-ico-begins-now/|title=STOX – The Prediction Platform’s ICO Begins Now! - NEWSBTC|date=2017-08-02|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2017
|
|The Winton Group (British investment management firm) starts climatepredictionmarket.com, a prediction market for climate prediction.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180130145737/http://www.pionline.com/article/20171030/PRINT/171039996/winton-provides-market-for-those-who-want-to-wager-on-the-weather|title=Winton provides market for those who want to wager on the weather - Pensions & Investments|date=2018-01-30|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018
|
|Federal Court in District of Columbia orders Intrade and TEN to pay $3 million Civil Monetary Penalty for illegally trading binary options and violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180801212926/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7758-18|title=Federal Court in District of Columbia Orders “Prediction Market” Companies to Pay $3 Million Civil Monetary Penalty for Illegally Trading Binary Options and Violating a 2005 CFTC Cease and Desist Order {{!}} U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION|date=2018-08-01|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018
|
|Augur, a decentralized prediction market based on Ethereum, officially launched.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180710084918/https://medium.com/@AugurProject/augur-launches-794fa7f88c6a|title=Augur Launches – Augur – Medium|date=2018-07-10|access-date=2018-09-04}}</ref>
|-
|2018
|
|Frame Project, a real-money prediction market for popular culture events and news, launched.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180831180707/https://www.tgdaily.com/games-and-entertainment/the-fame-project-is-letting-people-bet-on-the-future#bypass-sw|title=The Fame Project is Letting People Bet on the Future|work=TGDaily|access-date=2018-09-04|language=en}}</ref>
|}
== Meta information on the timeline ==
The initial version of the timeline was written by [[User:Orpheus Lummis|Orpheus_Lummis]].
{{funding info}} is available.
=== Feedback and comments ===
Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:
* TBD reddit
* TBD facebook
* by emailing [mailto:o@orpheuslummis.com o@orpheuslummis.com]
=== Timeline update strategy ===
Review yearly the advances of the field and historical material that is uncovered.
== See also ==
TBD
== External links ==
TBD
== References ==
{{Reflist|30em}}
