Difference between revisions of "Timeline of opinion polling and survey research"
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This timeline covers opinion polling and survey research. | This timeline covers opinion polling and survey research. | ||
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== Full timeline == | == Full timeline == | ||
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| 1790 || August 2 || Census || Offline || The first [[wikipedia:United States Census|United States Census]] is held. The Census would be held every 10 years and would be the largest poll in the United States. || United States | | 1790 || August 2 || Census || Offline || The first [[wikipedia:United States Census|United States Census]] is held. The Census would be held every 10 years and would be the largest poll in the United States. || United States | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 1824 || || Opinion poll || Offline || The first known example of an opinion poll. This is a [[wikipedia:straw poll|straw poll]] conducted by ''The Aru Pennsylvanian'', showing [[wikipedia:Andrew Jackson|Andrew Jackson]] leading [[wikipedia:John Quincy Adams|John Quincy Adams]] by 335 votes to 169 votes for the United States Presidency. Jackson would win the election. || United States | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 1916 || || Periodic survey || Offline || ''[[wikipedia:The Literary Digest|The Literary Digest]]'' conducts the first of several pre-election polls for the United States presidential election, by mailing out millions of postcards asking people who they would vote for, and counting returns. It would successfully predict the victors in the Presidential elections of 1916, 1920, 1924, 1928, and 1932. || United States | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 1935 || || Polling organization founding || Offline || [[wikipedia:George Gallup|George Gallup]] founds the American Institute of Public Opinion, one of the main predecessors to Gallup, Inc.<ref name=gallup-history>{{cite web|url = http://www.gallup.com/corporate/178136/george-gallup.aspx|title = George H. Gallup, Founder: 1901-1984|accessdate = March 18, 2017|publisher = [[wikipedia:Gallup (company)|Gallup]]}}</ref> || [[wikipedia:United States|United States]] | | 1935 || || Polling organization founding || Offline || [[wikipedia:George Gallup|George Gallup]] founds the American Institute of Public Opinion, one of the main predecessors to Gallup, Inc.<ref name=gallup-history>{{cite web|url = http://www.gallup.com/corporate/178136/george-gallup.aspx|title = George H. Gallup, Founder: 1901-1984|accessdate = March 18, 2017|publisher = [[wikipedia:Gallup (company)|Gallup]]}}</ref> || [[wikipedia:United States|United States]] | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 1936 || || Opinion poll || Offline || ''The Literary Digest'' incorrectly predicts that [[wikipedia:Alf Landon|Alf Landon]] would defeat incumbent [[wikipedia:Franklin Delano Roosevelt|Franklin Delano Roosevelt]] for the United States Presidency, using a sample of 2.3 million voters. In contrast, George Gallup predicts a Roosevelt victory, using a smaller but more nationally representative sample. The incident highlights the importance of representative sampling compared to large sample sizes. || United States | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 1938 || September || Polling organization founding || Offline || Jean Stoetzel founds the Institut Français d'Opinion Publique (IFOP) after meeting and being inspired by George Gallup || France | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 1940 || || Census || Offline || The [[wikipedia:1940 United States Census|1940 United States Census]] includes a long-form census for a subset of participants.<ref>{{Cite web|title = 1940 (Population) – History – U.S. Census Bureau|url = https://www.census.gov/history/www/through_the_decades/index_of_questions/1940_population.html|website = www.census.gov|accessdate = 2015-07-31|first = Jason|last = Gauthier}}</ref> The long-form census would continue till the [[wikipedia:2000 United States Census|2000 United States Census]], and would eventually be discontinued for the [[wikipedia:American Community Survey|American Community Survey]] || United States | | 1940 || || Census || Offline || The [[wikipedia:1940 United States Census|1940 United States Census]] includes a long-form census for a subset of participants.<ref>{{Cite web|title = 1940 (Population) – History – U.S. Census Bureau|url = https://www.census.gov/history/www/through_the_decades/index_of_questions/1940_population.html|website = www.census.gov|accessdate = 2015-07-31|first = Jason|last = Gauthier}}</ref> The long-form census would continue till the [[wikipedia:2000 United States Census|2000 United States Census]], and would eventually be discontinued for the [[wikipedia:American Community Survey|American Community Survey]] || United States | ||
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| 2005 || || Periodic survey || || The first full implementation of the [[wikipedia:American Community Survey|American Community Survey]] happens, with data collected throughout the year. This is inspired by the long-form survey previously included inside the United States Census. || United States | | 2005 || || Periodic survey || || The first full implementation of the [[wikipedia:American Community Survey|American Community Survey]] happens, with data collected throughout the year. This is inspired by the long-form survey previously included inside the United States Census. || United States | ||
|- | |- | ||
| − | | 2005 || || Organization founding || || The [[wikipedia:Monmouth University Polling Institute|Monmouth University Polling Institute]] is founded. | + | | 2005 || || Organization founding || || The [[wikipedia:Monmouth University Polling Institute|Monmouth University Polling Institute]] is founded. || United States |
|- | |- | ||
| − | | 2006 || || Periodic survey || Offline || The Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) is conducted for the first time by a consortium of 39 universities, and managed by a team at Harvard University. The CCES includes a mix of standard questions (included in all surveys) (called "Common Content") and custom questions requested by researchers, which are administered to different subsets of the participants (called "Team Content"). The CCES is conducted on 1000 people.<ref>{{cite web|url = http://cces.gov.harvard.edu/pages/welcome-cooperative-congressional-election-study|title = Welcome to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study!|accessdate = March 19, 2017}}</ref> | + | | 2006 || || Periodic survey || Offline || The Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) is conducted for the first time by a consortium of 39 universities, and managed by a team at Harvard University. The CCES includes a mix of standard questions (included in all surveys) (called "Common Content") and custom questions requested by researchers, which are administered to different subsets of the participants (called "Team Content"). The CCES is conducted on 1000 people.<ref>{{cite web|url = http://cces.gov.harvard.edu/pages/welcome-cooperative-congressional-election-study|title = Welcome to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study!|accessdate = March 19, 2017}}</ref> || United States |
|- | |- | ||
| 2008 || March 7 || Meta-analysis website founding || N/A || The website [[wikipedia:FiveThirtyEight|FiveThirtyEight]] is launched by [[wikipedia:Nate Silver|Nate Silver]]. The website performs analyses of opinion polling results and also generally discusses predictions in politics, sports, and other domains.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://whois.domaintools.com/fivethirtyeight.com|title=FiveThirtyEight.com WHOIS, DNS, & Domain Info – DomainTools|work=[[wikipedia:WHOIS|WHOIS]]|date= |accessdate=2016-09-03}}</ref> || United States (primary focus) | | 2008 || March 7 || Meta-analysis website founding || N/A || The website [[wikipedia:FiveThirtyEight|FiveThirtyEight]] is launched by [[wikipedia:Nate Silver|Nate Silver]]. The website performs analyses of opinion polling results and also generally discusses predictions in politics, sports, and other domains.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://whois.domaintools.com/fivethirtyeight.com|title=FiveThirtyEight.com WHOIS, DNS, & Domain Info – DomainTools|work=[[wikipedia:WHOIS|WHOIS]]|date= |accessdate=2016-09-03}}</ref> || United States (primary focus) | ||
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| 2012 || || Organization founding || Online || [[Wikipedia:Survata|Survata]], that distributes surveys online through the "surveywall" method, launches || [[wikipedia:United States|United States]] (more countries added over time) | | 2012 || || Organization founding || Online || [[Wikipedia:Survata|Survata]], that distributes surveys online through the "surveywall" method, launches || [[wikipedia:United States|United States]] (more countries added over time) | ||
|} | |} | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Numerical and visual data == | ||
| + | |||
| + | === Google Scholar === | ||
| + | |||
| + | The following table summarizes per-year mentions on Google Scholar as of August 15, 2021. | ||
| + | |||
| + | {| class="sortable wikitable" | ||
| + | ! Year | ||
| + | ! "opinion polling" | ||
| + | ! "survey research" | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 1950 || 58 || 108 | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 1960 || 37 || 415 | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 1970 || 76 || 1,510 | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 1980 || 85 || 2,730 | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 1990 || 180 || 4,030 | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 2000 || 535 || 8,850 | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 2010 || 978 || 22,600 | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 2020 || 1,590 || 30,800 | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | |} | ||
| + | |||
| + | [[File:Opinion polling google schoolar.png|thumb|center|700px]] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == See also == | ||
| + | |||
| + | * [[Timeline of prediction markets]] | ||
== References == | == References == | ||
{{reflist|30em}} | {{reflist|30em}} | ||
Latest revision as of 21:39, 25 March 2024
This timeline covers opinion polling and survey research.
Full timeline
| Year | Month and date (if available) | Event type | Polling method | Details | Geographical location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1790 | August 2 | Census | Offline | The first United States Census is held. The Census would be held every 10 years and would be the largest poll in the United States. | United States |
| 1824 | Opinion poll | Offline | The first known example of an opinion poll. This is a straw poll conducted by The Aru Pennsylvanian, showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 votes for the United States Presidency. Jackson would win the election. | United States | |
| 1916 | Periodic survey | Offline | The Literary Digest conducts the first of several pre-election polls for the United States presidential election, by mailing out millions of postcards asking people who they would vote for, and counting returns. It would successfully predict the victors in the Presidential elections of 1916, 1920, 1924, 1928, and 1932. | United States | |
| 1935 | Polling organization founding | Offline | George Gallup founds the American Institute of Public Opinion, one of the main predecessors to Gallup, Inc.[1] | United States | |
| 1936 | Opinion poll | Offline | The Literary Digest incorrectly predicts that Alf Landon would defeat incumbent Franklin Delano Roosevelt for the United States Presidency, using a sample of 2.3 million voters. In contrast, George Gallup predicts a Roosevelt victory, using a smaller but more nationally representative sample. The incident highlights the importance of representative sampling compared to large sample sizes. | United States | |
| 1938 | September | Polling organization founding | Offline | Jean Stoetzel founds the Institut Français d'Opinion Publique (IFOP) after meeting and being inspired by George Gallup | France |
| 1940 | Census | Offline | The 1940 United States Census includes a long-form census for a subset of participants.[2] The long-form census would continue till the 2000 United States Census, and would eventually be discontinued for the American Community Survey | United States | |
| 1941 | Polling organization founding | Offline | NORC at the University of Chicago is founded as the National Opinion Research Center. It is initially at the University of Denver[3] | United States (initially Denver, Colorado; later moved to Chicago) | |
| 1942 | Polling organization founding | Offline | Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics, Portuguese name Instituto Brasileiro de Opinião Pública e Estatística (IBOPE) is founded. | Brazil | |
| 1947 | Polling organization founding | Offline | The Allensbach Institute is founded as the Allensbach Institute for Public Opinion Research (AIPOR) by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann and Erich Peter Neumann | Germany (Allensbach) | |
| 1947 | May | Association founding | Offline | The Gallup International Association is formed. It is an association of polling organizations around the world | Switzerland (Zurich) |
| 1947 | September 4 | Association founding | Offline | The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) are founded.[3][4] The founding is a result of discussions at a meeting in the Opera House at Central City, Colorado, July 29 - 31, 1946, in response to a call by Harry H. Field of the National Opinion Research Center, then at the University of Denver. | |
| 1948 | Periodic survey | Offline | The first set of surveys listed under the American National Election Studies (ANES) is conducted. ANES includes pre-election and post-election surveys; initially conducted every presidential election season, and later conducted every national election season.[5] | United States | |
| 1958 | Polling organization founding | Offline | George Gallup consolidates all his polling operations under Gallup, Inc. | United States | |
| 1972 | Periodic survey | In-person (occasionally, phone) | The General Social Survey, a survey conducted every 1 or 2 years by the NORC at the University of Chicago, is conducted for the first time.[6] GSS would become the second-most cited survey in United States social science research, after the United States Census.(citation needed) | ||
| 1973 | September | Periodic survey | In-person | The semi-annual Eurobarometer survey is conducted for the first time. | Europe |
| 1975 | Association founding | N/A | The Council of American Survey Research Organizations (CASRO) is founded. | ||
| 1975 | Polling organization founding | Offline | Ipsos is founded by Didier Truchot in Paris, France.[7] | France (Paris) | |
| 1975 | Polling organization founding | Offline | Elway Research, a Seattle-based public opinion research firm, is founded. It conducts the Elway Poll, a monthly survey of voters in the U.S. state of Washington, and also conduct polls for newspapers. | United States (Seattle, Washington) | |
| 1978 | Polling organization founding (college-based) | Offline | The Marist Institute of Public Opinion (MIPO), that conducts the Marist Poll, is founded on the campus of Marist College in Poughkeepsie, New York. It is the first college-based survey center. The first poll is conducted by Dr. Lee Miringoff on Dutchess County elections, for a class he is teaching on voting behavior. | ||
| 1979 | Polling organization founding | Offline | Public opinion polling and market research firm Angus Reid Inc. is founded. In 2000, it would be acquired by Ipsos and it would eventually be rebranded as Ipsos. | Canada | |
| 1980 | Polling organization founding (college-based) | Offline | The Siena Research Institute is founded as an affiliate of Siena College. | United States | |
| 1980 | Polling organization founding | Offline | Ekos Research Associates is founded by Carleton Graves. | Canada (Winnipeg) | |
| 1981 | Periodic survey | In-person (occasionally, phone) | The World Values Survey is conducted for the first time, initially limited to Europe and called the European Values Survey. The Survey would subsequently expand to almost 100 countries around the world.[8] | Sweden (Stockholm) (headquarters; conducts surveys worldwide) | |
| 1984 | Periodic survey | Offline | Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) is conceived.[9] The DHS Program is responsible for collecting and disseminating accurate, nationally representative data on health and population in developing countries. | Global | |
| 1986 | Polling organization founding | Offline | Léger Marketing is founded as Léger & Léger | Canada | |
| 1988 | Polling organization founding (college-based) | Offline | An informal polling operation begins at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut. This would later morph into the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. | United States (Hamden, Connecticut) | |
| 1990 | Polling organization founding | Offline | The Times Mirror Company founds the Times Mirror Center for the People & the Press to conduct polls on politics and policy. This would later become the Pew Research Center.[10] | United States | |
| 1994 | Polling organization founding | Offline | The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is founded.[11] | United States (California) | |
| 1996 | Polling organization changes | Offline | The Times Mirror Center for the People & Press becomes the Pew Research Center for the People & Press, as a result of the Pew Charitable Trusts becoming its primary sponsor. | United States | |
| 1997 | Polling organization founding | Offline | Harris Interactive, an opinion polling company, is created as a result of a merger between the Gordon Black Corporation and Louis Harris & Associates. | United States | |
| 1999 | Survey tool organization founding | Online | Online survey tool company SurveyMonkey is founded by Ryan Finley.[12] | United States | |
| 2000 | Polling organization founding | Online | YouGov is founded | United Kingdom (London) | |
| 2000 | Polling organization founding | Offline | American public opinion polling company Susquehenna Polling & Research is founded by James Lee. The company offers polling services for Republican candidates, trade groups, businesses and lobbying firms in its region of operation. | United States (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland) | |
| 2001 | Polling organization founding | Offline | Public Policy Polling, a polling firm for public opinion research for the Democratic Party of the United States, is founded by businessman Dean Debman. | United States (Raleigh, North Carolina) | |
| 2002 | Polling organization founding | Offline | The Suffolk University Political Research Center (SUPRC) is founded at Suffolk University by founding director David Paleologos, lecturer at the Government Department of Suffolk University's College of Arts and Sciences | United States (Massachusetts; also conducts polls in New Hampshire) | |
| 2002 | Periodic survey | Offline | The first round of the European Social Survey is conducted. The survey would be conducted once every two years since 2002.[13] | Europe | |
| 2003 | Polling organization founding | Offline | Rasmussen Reports is founded by Scott Rasmussen.[14][15][16][17][18][19][20] | United States | |
| 2004 | Polling organization changes | Offline | The Pew Research Center moves to Washington, D.C. | United States (Washington, D.C.) | |
| 2004 | Meta-analysis website founding | N/A | Sam Wang of Princeton University undertakes a meta-analysis of state polling data to calculate a current snapshot of the probable range of election outcomes. This is a predecessor to the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC), officially launched in 2008.[21][22] | United States | |
| 2005 | Periodic survey | The first full implementation of the American Community Survey happens, with data collected throughout the year. This is inspired by the long-form survey previously included inside the United States Census. | United States | ||
| 2005 | Organization founding | The Monmouth University Polling Institute is founded. | United States | ||
| 2006 | Periodic survey | Offline | The Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) is conducted for the first time by a consortium of 39 universities, and managed by a team at Harvard University. The CCES includes a mix of standard questions (included in all surveys) (called "Common Content") and custom questions requested by researchers, which are administered to different subsets of the participants (called "Team Content"). The CCES is conducted on 1000 people.[23] | United States | |
| 2008 | March 7 | Meta-analysis website founding | N/A | The website FiveThirtyEight is launched by Nate Silver. The website performs analyses of opinion polling results and also generally discusses predictions in politics, sports, and other domains.[24] | United States (primary focus) |
| 2008 | Meta-analysis website founding | N/A | The Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) website launches.[22] | ||
| 2012 | March 29 | Product launch | Online | Google Surveys, that distributes surveys online through the "surveywall" method, launches as Google Consumer Surveys.[25][26] | limited set of countries including United States (list of countries at launch unclear) |
| 2012 | Product launch | Phone (via SMS) | GeoPoll launches as part of Mobile Accord, Inc. and does SMS surveys of Tunisian youth in the wake of the Arab Spring as well as a SMS survey for the African Development Bank.[27] | Africa | |
| 2012 | Organization founding | Online | Survata, that distributes surveys online through the "surveywall" method, launches | United States (more countries added over time) |
Numerical and visual data
Google Scholar
The following table summarizes per-year mentions on Google Scholar as of August 15, 2021.
| Year | "opinion polling" | "survey research" |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 58 | 108 |
| 1960 | 37 | 415 |
| 1970 | 76 | 1,510 |
| 1980 | 85 | 2,730 |
| 1990 | 180 | 4,030 |
| 2000 | 535 | 8,850 |
| 2010 | 978 | 22,600 |
| 2020 | 1,590 | 30,800 |
See also
References
- ↑ "George H. Gallup, Founder: 1901-1984". Gallup. Retrieved March 18, 2017.
- ↑ Gauthier, Jason. "1940 (Population) – History – U.S. Census Bureau". www.census.gov. Retrieved 2015-07-31.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 "History". American Association for Public Opinion Research.
- ↑ "History". World Association for Public Opinion Research. Retrieved March 21, 2017.
- ↑ "ANES Data Center". Retrieved March 19, 2017.
- ↑ "GSS Frequently Asked Questions". GSS Frequently Asked Questions. Retrieved March 19, 2017.
- ↑ "Our history". Ipsos. Retrieved March 18, 2017.
- ↑ "History of the WVSA". World Values Survey. Retrieved March 19, 2017.
- ↑ "A systematic review of Demographic and Health Surveys: data availability and utilization for research". World Health Organization. September 1, 2011. Retrieved July 20, 2016.
- ↑ "Our History". Pew Research Center. Retrieved March 18, 2017.
- ↑ "About PPIC". Public Policy Institute of California. Retrieved March 21, 2017.
- ↑ Arrington, Michael (September 8, 2009). "Survey Monkey Growing Like A Weed, Fills Out Exec Team". TechCrunch. Retrieved March 18, 2017.
- ↑ "Data and Documentation by Round/Year". European Social Survey. Retrieved March 19, 2017.
- ↑ Blumenthal, Mark; Edwards-Levy, Ariel (2013-08-22). "Pollster Scott Rasmussen Leaves Firm He Founded A Decade Ago". Huffington Post. Retrieved 24 August 2013.
- ↑ Siegelheim, Matt. "Scott Rasmussen to Launch New Media Venture". Rasmussen Media Group. Retrieved 11 August 2013.
- ↑ Prang, Allison (2013-08-22). "Founder Departs Polling Firm Rasmussen Reports". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 23 August 2013.
- ↑ "Company Overview of Rasmussen Reports, LLC". Bloomberg Businessweek. Retrieved 2012-06-12.
- ↑ "Scott Rasmsusen". LinkedIn. Retrieved 11 August 2013.
- ↑ "Rasmussen Reports Announces a Change in Management". Rasmussen Reports. 2013-08-22. Retrieved 24 August 2013.
- ↑ Byers, Dylan (2013-08-22). "Rasmussen founder leaves company". Politico. Retrieved 24 August 2013.
- ↑ Wang, Sam (July 19, 2004). "Meta-analysis of all state polls". DailyKos. Retrieved March 19, 2017.
- ↑ 22.0 22.1 "About the Princeton Election Consortium". Princeton Election Consortium. Retrieved March 19, 2017.
- ↑ "Welcome to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study!". Retrieved March 19, 2017.
- ↑ "FiveThirtyEight.com WHOIS, DNS, & Domain Info – DomainTools". WHOIS. Retrieved 2016-09-03.
- ↑ Shields, Mike (March 29, 2012). "Google Unveils New Revenue Option for Web Publishers. Microsurvey product to provide an alternative to paywalls". AdWeek. Retrieved March 18, 2017.
- ↑ Schwarz, Barry (March 29, 2012). "Google Launches Consumer Surveys". Retrieved March 18, 2017.
- ↑ "AfDB Goes Mobile for Research Data with Partner Mobile Accord". GeoPoll.
