Timeline of decision theory: Difference between revisions

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| 2012 || stagnation? ||

|}

== Numerical and visual data ==

=== Google Scholar ===

The following table summarizes per-year mentions on Google Scholar as of May 22, 2021.

{| class="sortable wikitable"

! Year

! decision theory

! behavioral decision theory

! bayesian decision theory

! statistical decision theory

! normative decision theory

! descriptive decision theory

|-

| 1980 || 50,700 || 9,980 || 1,170 || 15,500 || 5,060 || 8,280

|-

| 1985 || 69,100 || 11,100 || 1,260 || 17,700 || 5,850 || 8,610

|-

| 1990 || 121,000 || 17,900 || 2,750 || 29,800 || 9,640 || 16,200

|-

| 1995 || 208,000 || 22,700 || 3,870 || 50,300 || 15,700 || 23,100

|-

| 2000 || 386,000 || 43,200 || 6,610 || 102,000 || 32,100 || 43,000

|-

| 2002 || 474,000 || 61,600 || 8,830 || 122,000 || 40,600 || 53,600

|-

| 2004 || 574,000 || 76,100 || 11,900 || 135,000 || 44,700 || 58,200

|-

| 2006 || 727,000 || 90,200 || 15,800 || 161,000 || 62,100 || 76,800

|-

| 2008 || 889,000 || 125,000 || 21,000 || 187,000 || 72,600 || 93,200

|-

| 2010 || 1,020,000 || 144,000 || 26,300 || 211,000 || 82,000 || 110,000

|-

| 2012 || 1,130,000 || 170,000 || 34,000 || 240,000 || 91,800 || 128,000

|-

| 2014 || 993,000 || 177,000 || 38,400 || 222,000 || 89,600 || 126,000

|-

| 2016 || 786,000 || 147,000 || 41,700 || 179,000 || 86,300 || 112,000

|-

| 2017 || 682,000 || 126,000 || 36,200 || 155,000 || 80,500 || 102,000

|-

| 2018 || 465,000 || 116,000 || 45,200 || 129,000 || 69,700 || 78,400

|-

| 2019 || 300,000 || 87,900 || 40,000 || 96,800 || 55,900 || 68.700

|-

| 2020 || 207,000 || 63,500 || 36,400 || 70,800 || 43,800 || 51,400

|-

|}

[[File:Deision theory tb.png|thumb|center|700px]]

=== Google Trends ===

The comparative chart below shows {{w|Google Trends}} data for Decision theory (Field of study) and Decision theory (Search Term) from January 2004 to February 2021, when the screenshot was taken. Interest is also ranked by country and displayed on world map.<ref>{{cite web |title=Decision theory |url=https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%2Fm%2F029frg,Decision%20theory |website=Google Trends |access-date=15 February 2021}}</ref>

[[File:Decision theory gt.jpeg|thumb|center|600px]]

=== Google Ngram Viewer ===

The chart below shows {{w|Google Ngram Viewer}} data for Decision theory, from 1900 to 2019.<ref>{{cite web |title=Decision theory |url=https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=Decision+theory&year_start=1900&year_end=2019&corpus=26&smoothing=3&direct_url=t1%3B%2CDecision%20theory%3B%2Cc0#t1%3B%2CDecision%20theory%3B%2Cc0 |website=books.google.com |access-date=2 August 2021 |language=en}}</ref>

[[File:Decision theory ngram.png|thumb|center|700px]]

=== Wikipedia Views ===

The chart below shows pageviews of the English Wikipedia article {{w|Decision theory}}, from July 2015 to July 2021.<ref>{{cite web |title=Decision theory |url=https://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?page=Decision+theory&allmonths=allmonths-api&language=en&drilldown=all |website=wikipediaviews.org |access-date=2 August 2021}}</ref>

[[File:Decision theory wv.png|thumb|center|550px]]

==Full timeline==

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|-

| 1997 || || || The absent-minded driver problem is introduced (in the same paper as the sleeping beauty?).<ref>{{cite web |url=http://lesswrong.com/lw/182/the_absentminded_driver/ |title=The Absent-Minded Driver |date=September 16, 2009 |accessdate=September 10, 2017 |publisher=[[wikipedia:LessWrong|LessWrong]]}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Absentminded_driver |title=Absent-Minded driver - Lesswrongwiki |accessdate=September 10, 2017 |publisher=[[wikipedia:LessWrong|LessWrong]]}}</ref>

|-

| 1999 || {{dts|January 21}} || || Wei Dai posts the first description of what would later be called UDASSA is posted to everything-list.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://riceissa.github.io/everything-list-1998-2009/0316.html |title=Re: consciousness based on information or computation? |date=January 21, 1999 |accessdate=March 6, 2020 |publisher=everything-list |author=Wei Dai}}</ref> UDASSA seems to be a precursor to UDT.<ref>https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/SkXLrDXyHeekqgbFg/shock-level-5-big-worlds-and-modal-realism/comment/yMCxvHCpBqsYEorpt</ref>

|-

| 2002 || {{dts|July 17}} || || [[wikipedia:Hal Finney (computer scientist)|Hal Finney]], in a mailing list discussion, brings up ideas that according to Wei Dai come "pretty close to some of the ideas behind TDT".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7v/common_mistakes_people_make_when_thinking_about/65zv |title=Wei_Dai comments on Common mistakes people make when thinking about decision theory - Less Wrong |accessdate=September 10, 2017 |publisher=[[wikipedia:LessWrong|LessWrong]]}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://groups.google.com/forum/#!msg/everything-list/V0BSqfkwbLo/YcIaaMYs7w0J |title=self-sampling assumption is incorrect |publisher=Google Groups |date=July 17, 2002 |first=Hal |last=Finney |accessdate=September 10, 2017}}</ref>

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* [https://philpapers.org/rec/CAMTPD symmetry argument]? I found this paper linked in [https://qchu.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/cantors-theorem-the-prisoners-dilemma-and-the-halting-problem/]

* https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Parfit%27s_hitchhiker https://arbital.com/p/parfits_hitchhiker/

* http://fennetic.net/irc/finney.org/~hal/udassa/summary1.html

* http://fennetic.net/irc/finney.org/~hal/udassa/summary1.html -- in a post on everything-list, hal also mentions that he at one point had udassa.com. it looks like wayback didn't capture it in time (by the time it got to it, the domain was parked and for sale); i'm not sure if udassa.com had anything different from finney.org/~hal/udassa

* http://lesswrong.com/lw/gu1/decision_theory_faq/

* http://lesswrong.com/lw/aq9/decision_theories_a_less_wrong_primer/

Line 90:

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* when was TDT "officially" declared obsolete?

* I think several of cousin_it's posts should be included. i don't know enough yet to know which ones though.

** there was one i think that introduced the idea of "playing chicken with the universe"

* "the time they tried to hire a philosophy prof to write up TDT?" [http://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/168738981769/youzicha-nostalgebraist-shlevy] See [https://www.reddit.com/r/askphilosophy/comments/7qvsod/what_do_actual_decision_theorists_think_of/dsu3otc/], [http://lesswrong.com/lw/cok/funding_good_research/], [http://lesswrong.com/lw/f5b/the_problem_with_rational_wiki/7pj4], [https://www.reddit.com/r/askphilosophy/comments/7qvsod/what_do_actual_decision_theorists_think_of/]

* Will MacAskill has a Meta Decision Theory that's supposed to take into account uncertainty about which decision theory to use (sounds kinda similar to his approach to moral uncertainty?) [http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/gw5/meta_decision_theory_and_newcombs_problem/]

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* UDT1.5/UDT2

* roko's basilisk

* https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/tDk57GhrdK54TWzPY/i-m-buck-shlegeris-i-do-research-and-outreach-at-miri-ama/comment/byH8abnt5RnPMunts

* interesting historical bit about UDT and two-boxing on newcomb: https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/Kr76XzME7TFkN937z/predictors-exist-cdt-going-bonkers-forever/comment/afyRSrYtx8nP6kCs3 (i think wei dai has an older comment on LW saying a similar thing but giving less detail)

* vanessa kosoy and abram demski's discussion.

* some of jessica taylor's work

* progress or lack thereof for making decision theory work with logical inductors

* macaskill's criticism of FDT (posted on LW)

* big discussion of FDT on buck's AMA on EA forum https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/tDk57GhrdK54TWzPY/i-m-buck-shlegeris-i-do-research-and-outreach-at-miri-ama/comment/byH8abnt5RnPMunts

* 5 and 10 problem

* [https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/h9qQQA3g8dwq6RRTo/counterfactual-mugging-why-should-you-pay/answer/5satru2L8dbyp9Z4s] Abram Demski on the differences between UDT, TDT, and FDT

===Timeline update strategy===

@@ Line 14: / Line 14: @@
 | 2012 || stagnation? ||
 |}
+== Numerical and visual data  ==
+=== Google Scholar ===
+The following table summarizes per-year mentions on Google Scholar as of May 22, 2021.
+{| class="sortable wikitable"
+! Year
+! decision theory
+! behavioral decision theory
+! bayesian decision theory
+! statistical decision theory
+! normative decision theory
+! descriptive decision theory
+|-
+| 1980 || 50,700 || 9,980 || 1,170 || 15,500 || 5,060 || 8,280
+|-
+| 1985 || 69,100 || 11,100 || 1,260 || 17,700 || 5,850 || 8,610
+|-
+| 1990 || 121,000 || 17,900 || 2,750 || 29,800 || 9,640 || 16,200
+|-
+| 1995 || 208,000 || 22,700 || 3,870 || 50,300 || 15,700 || 23,100
+|-
+| 2000 || 386,000 || 43,200 || 6,610 || 102,000 || 32,100 || 43,000
+|-
+| 2002 || 474,000 || 61,600 || 8,830 || 122,000 || 40,600 || 53,600
+|-
+| 2004 || 574,000 || 76,100 || 11,900 || 135,000 || 44,700 || 58,200
+|-
+| 2006 || 727,000 || 90,200 || 15,800 || 161,000 || 62,100 || 76,800
+|-
+| 2008 || 889,000 || 125,000 || 21,000 || 187,000 || 72,600 || 93,200
+|-
+| 2010 || 1,020,000 || 144,000 || 26,300 || 211,000 || 82,000 || 110,000
+|-
+| 2012 || 1,130,000 || 170,000 || 34,000 || 240,000 || 91,800 || 128,000
+|-
+| 2014 || 993,000 || 177,000 || 38,400 || 222,000 || 89,600 || 126,000
+|-
+| 2016 || 786,000 || 147,000 || 41,700 || 179,000 || 86,300 || 112,000
+|-
+| 2017 || 682,000 || 126,000 || 36,200 || 155,000 || 80,500 || 102,000
+|-
+| 2018 || 465,000 || 116,000 || 45,200 || 129,000 || 69,700 || 78,400
+|-
+| 2019 || 300,000 || 87,900 || 40,000 || 96,800 || 55,900 || 68.700
+|-
+| 2020 || 207,000 || 63,500 || 36,400 || 70,800 || 43,800 || 51,400
+|-
+|}
+[[File:Deision theory tb.png|thumb|center|700px]]
+=== Google Trends ===
+The comparative chart below shows {{w|Google Trends}} data for Decision theory (Field of study) and Decision theory (Search Term) from January 2004 to February 2021, when the screenshot was taken. Interest is also ranked by country and displayed on world map.<ref>{{cite web |title=Decision theory |url=https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%2Fm%2F029frg,Decision%20theory |website=Google Trends |access-date=15 February 2021}}</ref>
+[[File:Decision theory gt.jpeg|thumb|center|600px]]
+=== Google Ngram Viewer ===
+The chart below shows {{w|Google Ngram Viewer}} data for Decision theory, from 1900 to 2019.<ref>{{cite web |title=Decision theory |url=https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=Decision+theory&year_start=1900&year_end=2019&corpus=26&smoothing=3&direct_url=t1%3B%2CDecision%20theory%3B%2Cc0#t1%3B%2CDecision%20theory%3B%2Cc0 |website=books.google.com |access-date=2 August 2021 |language=en}}</ref>
+[[File:Decision theory ngram.png|thumb|center|700px]]
+=== Wikipedia Views ===
+The chart below shows pageviews of the English Wikipedia article {{w|Decision theory}}, from July 2015 to July 2021.<ref>{{cite web |title=Decision theory |url=https://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?page=Decision+theory&allmonths=allmonths-api&language=en&drilldown=all |website=wikipediaviews.org |access-date=2 August 2021}}</ref>
+[[File:Decision theory wv.png|thumb|center|550px]]
 ==Full timeline==
@@ Line 29: / Line 100: @@
 |-
 | 1997 || || || The absent-minded driver problem is introduced (in the same paper as the sleeping beauty?).<ref>{{cite web |url=http://lesswrong.com/lw/182/the_absentminded_driver/ |title=The Absent-Minded Driver |date=September 16, 2009 |accessdate=September 10, 2017 |publisher=[[wikipedia:LessWrong|LessWrong]]}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Absentminded_driver |title=Absent-Minded driver - Lesswrongwiki |accessdate=September 10, 2017 |publisher=[[wikipedia:LessWrong|LessWrong]]}}</ref>
+|-
+| 1999 || {{dts|January 21}} || || Wei Dai posts the first description of what would later be called UDASSA is posted to everything-list.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://riceissa.github.io/everything-list-1998-2009/0316.html |title=Re: consciousness based on information or computation? |date=January 21, 1999 |accessdate=March 6, 2020 |publisher=everything-list |author=Wei Dai}}</ref> UDASSA seems to be a precursor to UDT.<ref>https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/SkXLrDXyHeekqgbFg/shock-level-5-big-worlds-and-modal-realism/comment/yMCxvHCpBqsYEorpt</ref>
 |-
 | 2002 || {{dts|July 17}} || || [[wikipedia:Hal Finney (computer scientist)|Hal Finney]], in a mailing list discussion, brings up ideas that according to Wei Dai come "pretty close to some of the ideas behind TDT".<ref>{{cite web |url=http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7v/common_mistakes_people_make_when_thinking_about/65zv |title=Wei_Dai comments on Common mistakes people make when thinking about decision theory - Less Wrong |accessdate=September 10, 2017 |publisher=[[wikipedia:LessWrong|LessWrong]]}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://groups.google.com/forum/#!msg/everything-list/V0BSqfkwbLo/YcIaaMYs7w0J |title=self-sampling assumption is incorrect |publisher=Google Groups |date=July 17, 2002 |first=Hal |last=Finney |accessdate=September 10, 2017}}</ref>
@@ Line 81: / Line 154: @@
 * [https://philpapers.org/rec/CAMTPD symmetry argument]? I found this paper linked in [https://qchu.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/cantors-theorem-the-prisoners-dilemma-and-the-halting-problem/]
 * https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Parfit%27s_hitchhiker https://arbital.com/p/parfits_hitchhiker/
-* http://fennetic.net/irc/finney.org/~hal/udassa/summary1.html
+* http://fennetic.net/irc/finney.org/~hal/udassa/summary1.html -- in a post on everything-list, hal also mentions that he at one point had udassa.com. it looks like wayback didn't capture it in time (by the time it got to it, the domain was parked and for sale); i'm not sure if udassa.com had anything different from finney.org/~hal/udassa
 * http://lesswrong.com/lw/gu1/decision_theory_faq/
 * http://lesswrong.com/lw/aq9/decision_theories_a_less_wrong_primer/
@@ Line 90: / Line 163: @@
 * when was TDT "officially" declared obsolete?
 * I think several of cousin_it's posts should be included. i don't know enough yet to know which ones though.
+** there was one i think that introduced the idea of "playing chicken with the universe"
 * "the time they tried to hire a philosophy prof to write up TDT?" [http://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/168738981769/youzicha-nostalgebraist-shlevy] See [https://www.reddit.com/r/askphilosophy/comments/7qvsod/what_do_actual_decision_theorists_think_of/dsu3otc/], [http://lesswrong.com/lw/cok/funding_good_research/], [http://lesswrong.com/lw/f5b/the_problem_with_rational_wiki/7pj4], [https://www.reddit.com/r/askphilosophy/comments/7qvsod/what_do_actual_decision_theorists_think_of/]
 * Will MacAskill has a Meta Decision Theory that's supposed to take into account uncertainty about which decision theory to use (sounds kinda similar to his approach to moral uncertainty?) [http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/gw5/meta_decision_theory_and_newcombs_problem/]
@@ Line 95: / Line 169: @@
 * UDT1.5/UDT2
 * roko's basilisk
-* https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/tDk57GhrdK54TWzPY/i-m-buck-shlegeris-i-do-research-and-outreach-at-miri-ama/comment/byH8abnt5RnPMunts
+* interesting historical bit about UDT and two-boxing on newcomb: https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/Kr76XzME7TFkN937z/predictors-exist-cdt-going-bonkers-forever/comment/afyRSrYtx8nP6kCs3 (i think wei dai has an older comment on LW saying a similar thing but giving less detail)
+* vanessa kosoy and abram demski's discussion.
+* some of jessica taylor's work
+* progress or lack thereof for making decision theory work with logical inductors
+* macaskill's criticism of FDT (posted on LW)
+* big discussion of FDT on buck's AMA on EA forum https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/tDk57GhrdK54TWzPY/i-m-buck-shlegeris-i-do-research-and-outreach-at-miri-ama/comment/byH8abnt5RnPMunts
+* 5 and 10 problem
+* [https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/h9qQQA3g8dwq6RRTo/counterfactual-mugging-why-should-you-pay/answer/5satru2L8dbyp9Z4s] Abram Demski on the differences between UDT, TDT, and FDT
 ===Timeline update strategy===