Difference between revisions of "Speculative timeline of future malaria events"
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| 2050 || Epidemic || The {{w|World Health Organization}}’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.<ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Eradication Feasible by 2050, Says New Lancet Report |url=https://www.healthpolicy-watch.org/malaria-eradication-feasible-by-2050-says-new-lancet-commission-report/ |website=healthpolicy-watch.org |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Africa}} || || | | 2050 || Epidemic || The {{w|World Health Organization}}’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.<ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Eradication Feasible by 2050, Says New Lancet Report |url=https://www.healthpolicy-watch.org/malaria-eradication-feasible-by-2050-says-new-lancet-commission-report/ |website=healthpolicy-watch.org |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Africa}} || || | ||
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| − | | 2051–2080 || Endemicity || Temperature estimates for this period speculate that up to 96.5% of the territory of {{w|Germany}} could experience a 4–5 month transmission window for malaria.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Schröder |first1=Winfried |last2=Schmidt |first2=Gunther |title=Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures |url=https://books.google.com.ar/books?id=5jG8BAAAQBAJ&pg=PR7&lpg=PR7&dq=%22malaria%22+%22in+2051..2100%22&source=bl&ots=HHZdeEiS61&sig=ACfU3U3Aj7paiqsbaApICPcqwZAkLxhcuQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjfn_r1qODlAhWJGbkGHZBNA1oQ6AEwDXoECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=%22malaria%22%20%22in%202051..2100%22&f=false}}</ref> || {{w|Germany}} || {{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} || | + | | 2051–2080 || Endemicity || Temperature estimates for this period speculate that up to 96.5% of the territory of {{w|Germany}} could experience a 4–5 month transmission window for malaria.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Schröder |first1=Winfried |last2=Schmidt |first2=Gunther |title=Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures |url=https://books.google.com.ar/books?id=5jG8BAAAQBAJ&pg=PR7&lpg=PR7&dq=%22malaria%22+%22in+2051..2100%22&source=bl&ots=HHZdeEiS61&sig=ACfU3U3Aj7paiqsbaApICPcqwZAkLxhcuQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjfn_r1qODlAhWJGbkGHZBNA1oQ6AEwDXoECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=%22malaria%22%20%22in%202051..2100%22&f=false}}</ref> || {{w|Germany}} || {{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} || <2013 |
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 2070 || Vector || Members of the ''{{w|Anopheles albitarsis}}'' complex are expected to become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in {{w|South America}} by this time.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Zorello Laporta |first1=Gabriel |last2=Linton |first2=Yvonne-Marie |last3=Wilkerson |first3=Richard C. |last4=Bergo |first4=Eduardo Sterlino |last5=Sayuri Nagaki |first5=Sandra |last6=Sant’Ana |first6=Denise Cristina |last7=Mureb Sallum |first7=Maria Anice |title=Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios |doi=10.1186/s13071-015-1038-4 |pmid=26283539 |url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4539674/}}</ref> || {{w|South America}} || Gabriel Zorello Laporta, Yvonne-Marie Linton, Richard C. Wilkerson, Eduardo Sterlino Bergo, Sandra Sayuri Nagaki, Denise Cristina Sant’Ana, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum || August 2015 | ||
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Revision as of 12:53, 10 November 2019
This is a speculative timeline of future malaria events, attempting to describe estimates of future events related to the malaria disease.
Contents
Big picture
| Time period | Development summary | More details |
|---|
Full timeline
| Year | Event type | Details | Location | Predictor | Date of prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Diagnosis | A diagnostic tool consisting in the first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to start field trials being rolled out in the Democratic Republic of Congo or Uganda in the second quarter of this year.[1] | Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda | ||
| 2021 | Eradication | Zambia aims to eliminate malaria by this year.[2] | Zambia | Ministry of Health | June 27, 2018 |
| 2021 | Diagnosis | The world’s first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to be launched by this year by South Africa-based Erada Technology Alliance, in collaboration with international partners CellFree Sciences, Frontier Institute, Johns Hopkins University and Oasis Diagnostics.[1] | Africa | ||
| 2021 | Treatment | London based medical device company MediSieve aims to launch a magnetic blood filter intended to enable doctors to remove infected red blood cells from the bloodstream directly, thus reducing parasitaemia, which would result in the usage of fewer IV drugs while minimizing hospital time – leading to cost savings.[3] | United Kingdom | MediSieve | ~2019 |
| 2040 | Eradication | Study finds that achieving malaria eradication by this year would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. It would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days.[4] | Worldwide | ||
| 2050 | Eradication | Global malaria eradication could be achieved by this time, according to a coalition of 41 leading scientists, economists and health-policy experts writing in the Lancet.[5][6][7] | Worldwide | ||
| 2050 | Epidemic | The World Health Organization’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.[8] | Africa | ||
| 2051–2080 | Endemicity | Temperature estimates for this period speculate that up to 96.5% of the territory of Germany could experience a 4–5 month transmission window for malaria.[9] | Germany | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | <2013 |
| 2070 | Vector | Members of the Anopheles albitarsis complex are expected to become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America by this time.[10] | South America | Gabriel Zorello Laporta, Yvonne-Marie Linton, Richard C. Wilkerson, Eduardo Sterlino Bergo, Sandra Sayuri Nagaki, Denise Cristina Sant’Ana, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum | August 2015 |
Meta information on the timeline
How the timeline was built
The initial version of the timeline was written by User:Sebastian.
Funding information for this timeline is available.
Feedback and comments
Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:
- FIXME
What the timeline is still missing
Timeline update strategy
See also
External links
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 "Funding Aids Development of Saliva-based Diagnostic Tool in Bid to Rid World of Malaria". thejournalofmhealth.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
- ↑ "Zambia aims to eradicate malaria by 2021: health minister". reuters.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
- ↑ "World Malaria Day: Five latest devices to combat the spread of malaria". nsmedicaldevices.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
- ↑ Willis, Derek W.; Hamon, Nick. "Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality". doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.12843.2. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
- ↑ "It's 'Ambitious' — But Possible — to Eradicate Malaria by 2050, According to a Landmark Report". time.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
- ↑ "Malaria Could be Eradicated By 2050, Global Health Experts Say". ucsf.edu. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
- ↑ Mahase, Elisabeth. "Malaria could be eradicated by 2050, say global experts". doi:10.1136/bmj.l5501.
- ↑ "Malaria Eradication Feasible by 2050, Says New Lancet Report". healthpolicy-watch.org. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
- ↑ Schröder, Winfried; Schmidt, Gunther. Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures.
- ↑ Zorello Laporta, Gabriel; Linton, Yvonne-Marie; Wilkerson, Richard C.; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino; Sayuri Nagaki, Sandra; Sant’Ana, Denise Cristina; Mureb Sallum, Maria Anice. "Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios". PMID 26283539. doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1038-4.
