Timeline of AI timelines

This is a timeline of AI timelines, the study of advances in artificial intelligence, in particular when artificial general intelligence will be created.

Big picture

Time period	Development summary	More details

Full timeline

Year	Month and date	Event type	Details

Meta information on the timeline

How the timeline was built

The initial version of the timeline was written by FIXME.

Funding information for this timeline is available.

Feedback and comments

Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:

• FIXME

What the timeline is still missing

• probably go back to people like Turing, IJ Good, or whoever who first came up with ideas around AGI; what did they say about when it would be created?
• dartmouth conference and initial optimistic ideas on when AGI would be created
• would be cool to include the various "standalone"/"self-contained" AI timeline methods and when they were first used https://wiki.issarice.com/wiki/Category:AI_timelines_arguments
• https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/ -- this was quite an influential blog post in LW/EA communities
• https://www.gwern.net/Scaling-hypothesis -- this page has a lot of details on scaling laws
• what are the various AI benchmarks and how do progress on those benchmarks look like?
• the stuff in this blog post (especially the stuff in the table) https://www.cold-takes.com/where-ai-forecasting-stands-today/
• this thread might be notable https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecasting-thread-ai-timelines
• look through posts here https://www.greaterwrong.com/tag/ai-timelines to see if any seem important
• similarly, check https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-forecasting
• maybe look at https://www.greaterwrong.com/s/B9Qc8ifidAtDpsuu8
• controversy like https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KnQs55tjxWopCzKsk/the-ai-timelines-scam
• https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ax695frGJEzGxFBK4/biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick-that-never-works
• look at metaculus threads and how predictions have changed over time e.g. [1], [2], [3]
• something something gary marcus
• https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/
• probably include some famous people's views like Bill Gates https://lukemuehlhauser.com/bill-gates-on-ai-timelines/
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil#Predictions
• might be able to copy some rows from Timeline of artificial intelligence, Timeline of AI safety, Timeline of machine learning
• the AI Impacts experts survey paper from 2016 https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf