Talk:Timeline of nuclear risk

From Timelines
Jump to: navigation, search

Review by Pablo on 2024-01-07

  • German-born theoretical physicist Albert Einstein writes a pivotal two-page letter to President Roosevelt. The letter was actually written by Leo Szílard, but Einstein signed it.✔
  • However, American financier Bernard Baruch later modifies the plan as the Baruch Plan. As someone who is not familiar with this plan, I don’t feel I get an adequate sense of what happened here. Questions that come to mind: How come a financier is in a position of modifying an existing plan? What is Baruch’s connection with the Acheson–Lilienthal Report? And why was his plan rejected by the Soviet Union? [Reads further] Okay, I now see that you answer the last question in the following section.✔
  • the committee would be disbanded in 1950. It would be useful to indicate briefly why the committee was disbanded.✔
  • In a letter to the editor of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The Wikipedia article says that “The concept of a cobalt bomb was originally described in a radio program by physicist Leó Szilárd on February 26, 1950.” A quick search yields this PDF, which appears to be a transcript of that program.✔
  • American nuclear physicist Herman Kahn introduces the concept "doomsday machine" in his book On Thermonuclear War. The Britannica source says that Kahn “developed” the concept, but it’s unclear that he introduced it, I think.✔
  • You mention Pugwash Conferences tangentially a few times, but there is no entry explicit noting its creation. Given its apparent importance, it may be worth adding such an entry.✔
  • Toby Ord estimates the odds that humanity could become Countries with nuclear extinct over the next century at one in weapons six, with an out-of-control superintelligence, bioterrorism, and totalitarianism among the largest risks. I don’t understand why this is mentioned here.✔

Review by Vipul on 2024-01-03

This timeline looks great! I made a few minor grammar and style fixes but otherwise no further suggestions for this iteration of work. I will proceed to determining tentative payment.

Review by Vipul on 2023-12-02

Version reviewed: https://timelines.issarice.com/index.php?title=Timeline_of_nuclear_risk&oldid=77315 (this includes one minor edit by Vipul on top of the version https://timelines.issarice.com/index.php?title=Timeline_of_nuclear_risk&oldid=77312 that Sebastian submitted)

General standalone evaluation comments

  • I think the rows for 1940s/1950s, 1960s/1970s, and 1980s/1990s in the big picture can each be split by decade, since I detect key differences in the themes of the decades within each pair. I'm fine keeping the 2000s to present period as one row, though that might also make sense to split.✔

External evaluation

Panel on nuclear risk

I caught up with the recent topics of discussion on nuclear risk by watching a YouTube video of a panel on nuclear risk. Thoughts based on that: overall the timeline seems to do a good job presenting the background information needed to make sense of the panel. One key omission:

  • There are no events in the timeline since early 2022, so in particular it's missing all discussion of recent nuclear threats made by Russian president Vladimir Putin, as well as speculation about possible use of nuclear weapons by Putin, in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Adding some coverage of this might be good.✔

Review by Vipul on 2023-11-17

Version reviewed: https://timelines.issarice.com/index.php?title=Timeline_of_nuclear_risk&oldid=77139 (this includes a few minor edits by Vipul on top of the version https://timelines.issarice.com/index.php?title=Timeline_of_nuclear_risk&oldid=77135 that Sebastian submitted)

General standalone evaluation comments

  • It would help to have a summary section (outside of the full timeline) that gives the nuclear status and known important first dates / years for countries that have or previously had nuclear capabilities. This could provide more of a reference point against which nuclear developments in the full timeline can be understood.✔
  • It would help to copy over some stuff from timeline of existential risk that's related to nuclear capabilities. In particular, the row about Nixon's stability issues after Watergate would be worth including.✔
  • There are probably also a few events surrounding nuclear capabilities changes by countries that are missing. The one that seems most salient to me (given my prior knowledge) is the Pokhran tests done by India; things around this (such as nuclear testing by Pakistan, and hacking into the Indian nuclear facilities) are mentioned, but the nuclear tests themselves aren't.✔
  • I think the A. Q. Khan stuff is worth moving over from the enlarged timeline to the full timeline, with a bit more fleshing out, as it represents a concrete example of the risks of the leakage of nuclear stuff to non-state actors.✔
  • There's some other stuff included in the enlarged timeline found here on the talk page; I think much of this stuff is worth moving over as long as it fits the broad inclusion criteria.✔ (let me know if you want me to move more events)

External verification

Wikipedia

Vipul reviewed the Wikipedia page Nuclear safety and security and found the following items from there that may be worth adding:

ChatGPT

Vipul asked ChatGPT to write a timeline of nuclear risk, and read the response by ChatGPT. Everything in the response from ChatGPT was already covered by this timeline.

Enlarged timeline

Year Month and date Category Event type Details Involved country
1949 Nuclear security Organization Federal Protective Forces (FPF) are established as paramilitary forces under the United States Department of Energy (DOE) to protect Category I special nuclear material. These forces are officially classified as security police and hold law enforcement status while performing official duties. Equipped and trained to respond to armed adversaries and reacquire stolen nuclear material, they are described as "elite fighting forces" designed to operate in combat environments. FPF's responsibility includes defending DOE sites storing uranium-235, uranium-233, and plutonium-239. They are heavily armed and trained to counter a hypothetical adversary.[1] United States
1959 Comprehensive Notable case A reactor in Italy becomes the last nuclear project financed by the World Bank.[2] Italy
1960 General Notable case The first Israeli nuclear reactor goes on line, with the second in 1962.[2] Israel
1961 (January 3) Non-intentional Nuclear accident The SL-1 nuclear reactor, part of a U.S. Army project, suffers a fatal accident in a remote area near Idaho Falls. During maintenance, a control rod is mistakenly withdrawn 20 inches instead of the safe limit of 4.2 inches, causing the reactor to achieve prompt criticality. This leads to a steam explosion, propelling the reactor housing 9.1 feet vertically and fatally injuring three operators: Army Specialist John A. Byrnes, Richard Leroy McKinley, and Navy Seabee Richard C. Legg. The incident prompts significant safety protocol changes and public skepticism about nuclear technology's safety, despite its initial promise of a stable, low-cost power source.[3] United States
1967 November Nuclear power program "Iran’s first nuclear reactor, the U.S. supplied five-megawatt Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) goes critical. It operates on uranium enriched to about 93 percent (it is converted to run on 20 percent in 1993,) which the United States also supplies."[4] Iran
1969 Comprehensive The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) is established by faculty and students of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. This nonprofit science advocacy organization, based in the U.S., focuses on critical examination of governmental policies in areas where science and technology hold significance. The UCS addresses environmental and social issues, advocating for solutions through research and policy. It is co-founded by physicist Henry Kendall and would gain recognition for initiatives like the World Scientists' Warning to Humanity. Today, with over 200,000 members, including scientists and citizens, the UCS promotes stances on topics such as nuclear disarmament, climate change, deforestation, and sustainable practices, while actively engaging in policy discussions and raising public awareness.
1973 February 27 General Organization The Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC) is established[5] with aims to promote use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes.[6] BAEC would play a crucial role in promoting peaceful uses of atomic energy and developing nuclear power projects. Initially facing resource limitations, BAEC would expand its research facilities, including the Atomic Energy Research Establishment (AERE) with a research reactor. It would extend its services in nuclear medicine, radiation testing, and mineral extraction. However, concerns would emerge about its preparedness to build and operate nuclear power plants.[7] Bangladesh
1974 State program Program launch "Shah Reza Pahlavi establishes the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) and announces plans to generate about 23,000 megawatts of energy over 20 years, including the construction of 23 nuclear power plants and the development of a full nuclear fuel cycle."[4] Iran
1976 January 5 Non-intentional Nuclear accident A nuclear incident occurs at Jaslovské Bohunice in Czechoslovakia, due to a malfunction during fuel replacement. A fuel rod is ejected from the reactor into the reactor hall by coolant (CO2).[8] Czechoslovakia
1979 "The Iranian Revolution and the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran result in a severing of U.S.-Iranian ties and damages Iran’s relationship with the West. Iranian nuclear projects are halted."[4] Iran
1984 State program Nuclear cooperation Iran receives nuclear assistance.[2] Iran
1985 Non-intentional Organization The Atomic Energy Licensing Board is established.[9] It is a Malaysian regulatory body directly involved in controlling the radiation safety and activities concerning atomic energy.[10] It operates a radiation detection equipment aimed to support nuclear security training and detection capabilities at major public events in Asia and the Pacific.[11] Malaysia
1986 "Mordechai Vanunu, at the Israeli nuclear facility near Dimona revealed information about the Israeli nuclear weapon program to the British press, confirming widely held notions that Israel had an advanced and secretive nuclear weapons program and stockpile. Israel has never acknowledged or denied having a weapons program, and Vanunu was abducted and smuggled to Israel, where he was tried in camera and convicted of treason and espionage." Israel
1987 Iran acquires technical schematics for building a P-1 centrifuge from the Abdul Qadeer Khan network.[4] Iran
1993 "Conversion of the TRR is completed by Argentina’s Applied Research Institute. It now runs on fuel enriched to just less than 20 percent, 115 kilograms of which is provided by Argentina; the contract for the conversion was signed in 1987."[4]
1993 "Conversion of the TRR is completed by Argentina’s Applied Research Institute. It now runs on fuel enriched to just less than 20 percent, 115 kilograms of which is provided by Argentina; the contract for the conversion was signed in 1987."[4]
1995 May 11 Diplomacy States-party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) convene to decide on the treaty's extension. Article X of the NPT mandated this conference 25 years after the treaty's initiation to determine if it would continue indefinitely or for further periods. There was initial uncertainty about the extension's nature. Non-nuclear-weapon states, particularly those from the Nonaligned Movement, were dissatisfied with the slow progress in nuclear disarmament. They feared that an indefinite extension would allow nuclear-armed states to retain their arsenals indefinitely without being held accountable for disarmament. Ultimately, the states-parties agreed to the NPT's indefinite extension despite these concerns.[12]
1999 (May 25) Intentional Notable publication The Cox Report is released to the public. It is a U.S. government document revealing covert operations conducted by the People's Republic of China within the United States during the 1980s and 1990s. The report is unanimously approved by a bipartisan committee and is a declassified version of the original classified document. Certain portions of the report are redacted for national security reasons, leading to the omission of significant events, facts, and analyses. Despite the redactions, the report highlights covert activities by China, serving as a significant document in understanding the complex relationship between the two nations during that period.[13] United States
2001 Non-intentional Organization (national) The Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority is formed.[14] Pakistan
2003 June 6 "The IAEA issues a report detailing Iranian clandestine nuclear activities that Tehran failed to report to the agency, in violation of its safeguards agreement."[12]
2003 September "September 12, 2003: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors adopts a resolution calling for Iran to suspend all enrichment – and reprocessing- related activities. The resolution requires Iran to declare all material relevant to its uranium-enrichment program and allow IAEA inspectors to conduct environmental sampling at any location. The resolution requires Iran to meet its conditions by October 31st 2003. Iran agrees to meet IAEA demands by the October 31st deadline. In a deal struck between Iran and European foreign ministers, Iran agrees to suspend its uranium–enrichment activities and ratify an additional protocol requiring Iran to provide an expanded declaration of its nuclear activities and granting the IAEA broader rights of access to sites in the country."[4] Iran
2005 February 27 "Russia and Iran conclude a nuclear fuel supply agreement in which Russia would provide fuel for the Bushehr reactor it is constructing and Iran would return the spent nuclear fuel to Russia. The arrangement is aimed at preventing Iran from extracting plutonium for nuclear weapons from the spent nuclear fuel."[4] Iran, Russia
2005 April 1 General Organization (national) The Civil Nuclear Constabulary (CNC) is established as a special police force in the United Kingdom. Its primary responsibility is to provide law enforcement and security at nuclear sites and for the protection of nuclear materials during transit within the country. Comprising over 1,500 police officers and support staff, the force is authorized to carry firearms due to the unique demands of safeguarding the nuclear industry. The CNC replaces the Atomic Energy Authority Constabulary that had been in place since 1955. Its core role is to ensure the security of civil nuclear establishments, materials, and maintain readiness against potential threats.[15] United Kingdom
2007 June The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) publicly reveals the name of Adnan Gulshair el Shukrijumah. He is alleged to be the operations leader involved in developing tactical plans for detonating nuclear bombs in multiple American cities simultaneously. This disclosure raises concerns about the potential nuclear terrorism threat and highlights the importance of counterterrorism efforts to prevent such catastrophic scenarios. United States
2009 February 3 Intentional Iran announces having successfully carried out its first satellite launch, raising international concerns that the country's ballistic missile potential is growing.[4] Iran
2009 April 14 "North Korea Walks Out of Six Party Talks Negotiations among China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States to find a peaceful resolution to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program fell apart after the UN Security Council condemned a North Korean test launch of a rocket, which it had disguised as part of its civilian space program. The negotiations, known as the Six Party Talks, had lasted six years but failed to reach a resolution. North Korea remains one of the most unstable nuclear powers today."
2009 Non-intentional Binational cooperation The United States and South Africa sign an agreement on cooperation on nuclear energy research and development related to pebble bed modular reactor and Generation IV technologies that do not include a conditionality clause.[2] United States, South Africa
2009 Non-intentional Policy The Obama administration takes steps to halt the development of the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository by reducing funding of the site to almost negligible levels. The Yucca Mountain project, located in Nevada, was intended to serve as a long-term geological repository for the storage of high-level nuclear waste from commercial nuclear power plants.[16][2] United States
2010 November "In November 2010, North Korea unveiled a large uranium-enrichment plant to former officials and academics from the United States. The Yongbyon plant contained approximately 2,000 gas centrifuges that were claimed to be operating and producing low-enriched uranium (LEU) for a light-water reactor (LWR) that North Korea is constructing. This plant is estimated to be capable of producing two metric tons of LEU each year, enough to fuel the LWR reactor under construction, or to produce 40 kg of highly-enriched uranium (HEU), enough for one to two nuclear weapons. As of January 2018, North Korea is estimated to possess 250-500 kg of uranium."[17] North Korea
2011 May 8 The Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran initiates its operations and accomplishes a continuous chain reaction with success within two days.[4] Iran
2012 April "KN-08 (Hwasong-13): The KN-08 is an intercontinental ballistic missile under development with an estimated range of 5,500-11,500km. Given that the system has not been tested, however, the range estimates are highly speculative. It was first unveiled in April 2012 and has not yet been tested, although North Korea likely tested the rocket engine for this system."[17] North Korea
2012 June 29 Intentional International resolution United Nations Security Council Resolution 2055 is adopted.
2013 April "North Korea announced its intention to restart its Yongbyon 5MWe Reactor for plutonium production in April 2013, after disabling it as a part of the six-party talks in 2007. North Korea declared the site to be “fully operational” by late August 2015.

The reactor is capable of producing six kg of weapons-grade plutonium each year. Satellite imagery from April 2016, January 2017, and April 2018 confirmed increased activity at the reprocessing site. As of January 2018, North Korea is estimated to possess 20-40 kg of plutonium."[17] || North Korea

2015 December 28 "Iran announces that it shipped 8.5 tonnes of low-enriched uranium, including the 20 percent enriched material in scrap and waste, out of the country to Russia. In return, Iran receives 140 tonnes of uranium yellowcake."[4] Iran
2016 February "A February 2016 Congressional report confirmed that both Syria and Iran have received missile technology from North Korea. While Syria has also engaged in nuclear technology cooperation with North Korea, the report found no evidence that Iran has done so. Pyongyang is widely believed to have provided missile cooperation to Burma."[17] North Korea
2016 March 9 Iran test launches two different variations of the Qadr medium-range ballistic missile.[4] Iran
2017 January 28 "Iran test fires a medium-range ballistic missile, in defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 2231. The test prompts former NSA Michael Flynn, on February 1, to declare the United States has placed Iran “on notice.”"[4] Iran
2017 September 22 Missile program Iran parades its new medium-range ballistic missile Khoramshahr, tested in January, with a range of about 2,000 km.[4] Iran
2018 (October 18) Risk Intentional In a speech at the Valdai Discussion Club, Russian President Vladimir Putin promises Russians a place in heaven in the event of a nuclear war, stating, "As martyrs, we will go to heaven, and they will just croak because they won’t even have time to repent." Putin claims to explain Russia's military doctrine, stating they don't reserve the right of a first strike but clarifies that Russia's use of nuclear arms is responsive and reciprocal.[18] Russia
2020 November 27 "November 27, 2020: Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is assassinated near Tehran. November 28, 2020: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani suggests that Israel is behind the assassination of Fakhrizadeh."[4] Iran
2020 December 18 "December 18, 2020: Satellite imagery reveals that Iran has begun construction at the underground Fordow enrichment facility. The design and purpose of the new construction remains unclear."[4] Iran
  1. ↑ "- FEDERAL PROTECTIVE SERVICE REFORM ACT OF 2000". www.govinfo.gov. Retrieved 21 September 2022. 
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named Stulberg
  3. ↑ "The SL-1 Nuclear Incident". large.stanford.edu. Retrieved 4 November 2023. 
  4. ↑ 4.00 4.01 4.02 4.03 4.04 4.05 4.06 4.07 4.08 4.09 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 "Timeline of Nuclear Diplomacy With Iran | Arms Control Association". www.armscontrol.org. Retrieved 23 September 2022. 
  5. ↑ Matin, Abdul (1 March 2014). "Forty one years of Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission". The Daily Star. Retrieved 21 September 2022. 
  6. ↑ "Welcome To Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission". archive.org. Retrieved 28 September 2022. 
  7. ↑ Matin, Abdul (1 March 2014). "Forty one years of Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission". The Daily Star. Retrieved 2 September 2023. 
  8. ↑ "The results of a nuclear incident in Czechoslovakia". The Unexpected Traveller. 10 August 2020. 
  9. ↑ "Corporate Profile – Portal Rasmi Jabatan Tenaga Atom". aelb.gov.my. Retrieved 21 September 2022. 
  10. ↑ Board, Atomic Energy Licencing. "Annual report 1997". inis.iaea.org. Retrieved 23 September 2022. 
  11. ↑ "Malaysian Nuclear Security Support Center to Make IAEA Radiation Detection Equipment Available Regionally". www.iaea.org. 7 October 2020. Retrieved 23 September 2022. 
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named Timeline_of_the_NPT
  13. ↑ "Cox Report, 1999 | US-China Institute". china.usc.edu. Retrieved 7 November 2023. 
  14. ↑ USA, IBP (20 March 2009). Pakistan Nuclear Programs and Projects Handbook - Strategic Information and Regulations. Lulu.com. ISBN 978-1-4387-3728-7. 
  15. ↑ "British Police History". british-police-history.uk. Retrieved 21 September 2022. 
  16. ↑ Farrell 2010)
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named www.armsco
  18. ↑ Gessen, Masha (19 October 2018). "Putin Lied About His Nuclear Doctrine and Promised Russians That They Would Go to Heaven". The New Yorker. Retrieved 29 December 2023. 
Retrieved from "http://timelines.issarice.com/index.php?title=Talk:Timeline_of_nuclear_risk&oldid=78221"