Timeline of Carl Shulman publications

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This is a timeline of Carl Shulman publications. This timeline covers only publicly published work; Shulman apparently has "a giant folder of hundreds of blog post drafts to throw interesting ideas, citations, and links to" that this timeline does not cover.[1]

Big picture

Venue Time period Details
Overcoming Bias December 2006 – February 2013 The Overcoming Bias About page states: "In '12, Robin wanted to cut back to make more time to write a book, and so Katja Grace, Rob Wiblin, and Carl Shulman joined as new-co-bloggers."[2] Robin Hanson introduces Shulman in a post on October 9, 2012.[3]
Formal publications 2009–present
LessWrong March 2009 – June 2013
80,000 Hours November 2011 – February 2012 The 80,000 Hours website states Shulman was "Director of Careers Research in early 2012".[4]
*Reflective Disequilibrium* March 2012 – present
Effective Altruism Forum November 2013 – present

Full timeline

The "Comment count" column applies only to blog posts and relies on the comment counting provided by Disqus, Blogger, LessWrong, etc. (as the case may be) rather than manually counting up the comments. The column is blind to the identity of the commenter (e.g. a comment by Shulman himself counts as a comment, as well as any uncaught spam). The comment counts are as of June 5, 2017.

The "Word count" column was produced by the simple process of copying the text of the post into a buffer in Vim and counting with g CTRL-G. In the handful of cases checked, this matched the output of GNU wc's wc -w. Blockquotes, footnotes, and tables were included in the count to make the process easier. For PDFs, a text dump was created by attempting to select all text with CTRL-A, in two PDF readers, Chrome on Linux and either PDF.js or Atril (in parentheses). For posts that were crossposted between *Reflective Disequilibrium* and another blog, the one on the former was used. Word counts are as of July 5, 2017.

Year Month and date Format Venue Coauthors Details Comment count Word count
2006 December 15 Blog post Overcoming Bias "Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus" is published.[5] 1 250
2006 December 22 Blog post Overcoming Bias "A Christmas Gift for Rationalists" is published.[6] 5 288
2007 January 15 Blog post Overcoming Bias "Should we Defer to Secret Evidence?" is published.[7] 5 232
2007 January 27 Blog post Overcoming Bias "Sick of Textbook Errors" is published.[8] 3 196
2008 November 22 Blog post Overcoming Bias "Brain Emulation and Hard Takeoff" is published.[9] 28 1176
2008 November 23 Blog post Overcoming Bias " 'Evicting' brain emulations" is published.[10] 21 1010
2009 Paper AP-CAP Henrik Jonsson, Nick Tarleton "Which Consequentialism? Machine Ethics and Moral Divergence" is published.[11][12] 1832 (1883)
2009 Paper AP-CAP Henrik Jonsson, Nick Tarleton "Machine Ethics and Superintelligence" is published.[11][13] 1908 (1958)
2009 March 21 Blog post LessWrong "Don't Revere The Bearer Of Good Info" is published.[14] 64 839
2009 July Paper ECAP "Arms Control and Intelligence Explosions" is published.[15] 1836 (1868)
2010 Paper MIRI "Omohundro's 'Basic AI Drives' and Catastrophic Risks" is published.[11][16] 3652 (3316)
2010 Paper ECAP10 Anders Sandberg "Implications of a Software-Limited Singularity" is published.[11][17] 2416 (2443)
2010 Paper ECAP10 Joshua Fox "Superintelligence Does Not Imply Benevolence" is published.[11][18] 2398 (2443)
2010 Paper MIRI "Whole Brain Emulation and the Evolution of Superorganisms" is published.[11][19] 3639 (3703)
2010 Paper MIRI Eliezer Yudkowsky, Anna Salamon, Steven Kaas, Tom McCabe, Rolf Nelson "Reducing Long-Term Catastrophic Risks from Artificial Intelligence" appears.[20] 2841 (2880)
2010 September 23 Blog post LessWrong "Politics as Charity" is published.[21] 161 2474
2010 November 24 Blog post LessWrong "Probability and Politics" is published.[22] 31 1606
2011 November 15 Blog post 80,000 Hours "High Impact Science" is published.[23] 0 923
2012 Paper Journal of Consciousness Studies Nick Bostrom "How Hard is Artificial Intelligence? Evolutionary Arguments and Selection Effects" is published.[11][24] 11483 (11573)
2012 January 8 Blog post 80,000 Hours "Salary or startup? How do-gooders can gain more from risky careers" is published.[25] 0 1039
2012 February 9 Blog post LessWrong "Feed the spinoff heuristic!" is published.[26] 85 509
2012 February 17 Blog post 80,000 Hours "How hard is it to become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?" is published.[27] 0 2488
2012 February 19 Blog post 80,000 Hours "Entrepreneurship: a game of poker, not roulette" is published.[28] 0 1873
2012 February 21 Blog post 80,000 Hours "Software engineering: Britain vs Silicon Valley" is published.[29] 1 1773
2012 February 25 Blog post 80,000 Hours "5 ways to be misled by salary rankings" is published.[4] 0 1299
2012 March 7 Blog post LessWrong "Using degrees of freedom to change the past for fun and profit" is published.[30] 23 2686
2012 March 24 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Are pain and pleasure equally energy-efficient?" is published.[31] 11 632
2012 May 8 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Utilitarianism, contractualism, and self-sacrifice" is published.[32] 1 2498
2012 May 9 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Philosophers vs economists on discounting" is published.[33] 7 1236
2012 May 10 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Economic growth: more costly disasters, better prevention" is published.[34] 0 453
2012 May 11 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "What to eat during impact winter?" is published.[35] 4 1080
2012 July 16 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Rawls' original position, potential people, and Pascal's Mugging" is published.[36] 12 678
2012 September 17 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Can catch-up growth take us to the stars?" is published.[37] 0 1007
2012 September 17 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Spreading happiness to the stars seems little harder than just spreading" is published.[38] 21 929
2012 October 16 Blog post Overcoming Bias "Alms is not about alms experts" is published.[39] 22 414
2012 November 5 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium*, Overcoming Bias "Nuclear winter and human extinction: Q&A with Luke Oman" is published.[40][41] 0, 32 1155
2012 December 6 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium*, Overcoming Bias "Breeding happier animals: no futuristic tech required" is published.[42][43] 4, 91 600
2012 December 8–11 Paper/presentation AGI Impacts conference "Could We Use Untrustworthy Human Brain Emulations to Make Trustworthy Ones?" is presented. Nick Bostrom calls this a "paper" in the bibliography of Superintelligence, but Google (and Google Scholar) turns up only the video presentation.[44][45]
2012 December 22 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium*, Overcoming Bias "Future Filter Fatalism" is published.[46][47] 0, 45 299
2013 February 4 Blog post Overcoming Bias "The SAEE: who was right?" is published.[48] 9 378
2013 June 16 Blog post LessWrong "Normative uncertainty in Newcomb's problem" is published.[49] 31 640
2013 June 19 Blog post LessWrong "Why do theists, undergrads, and Less Wrongers favor one-boxing on Newcomb?" is published.[50] 299 701
2013 July 4 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Open borders in (at least) one (developed) country" is published.[51] 7 1395
2013 July 8 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "How immigration could make AMF more cost-effective" is published.[52] 0 668
2013 July 30 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Vegan advocacy and pessimism about wild animal welfare" is published.[53] 26 1310
2013 August 19 Conversation Holden Karnofsky, Robert Wiblin, Paul Christiano, Nick Beckstead The participants have a conversation on flow through effects.[54] 13076
2013 September 10 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "How are brain mass (and neurons) distributed among humans and the major farmed land animals?" is published.[55] 7 437
2013 September 25 Conversation Alexander Berger, Sean Conley GiveWell has a conversation with Shulman on global catastrophic risks and existential risks.[56] 2211 (2292)
2013 November 5 Blog post Effective Altruism Forum Nick Beckstead "A Long-run perspective on strategic cause selection and philanthropy" is published.[57] 29 2201
2013 December 3 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Thoughts on GiveWell's 2013 recommendations" is published.[58] 6 1402
2013 December 11 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "What proxies to use for flow-through effects?" is published.[59] 4 1130
2013 December 12 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "How to think about displacing Good Ventures in funding GiveWell Labs?" is published.[60] 3 1862
2014 January 2 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Turning log-consumption into a [crude] measure of short-run human welfare" is published.[61] 5 1257
2014 January 3 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Recent growth at Giving What We Can and GiveWell" is published.[62] 6 865
2014 January 4 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "If big donors have much better opportunities than small donors, then small donors can go to Las Vegas, or Wall Street" is published.[63] 3 1114
2014 January 15 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "It's harder to favor a specific cause in more efficient charitable markets" is published.[64] 10 1038
2014 January 16 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "A glance at the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DfID), and careers in government grantmaking" is published.[65] 5 678
2014 January 17 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Cancer vs malaria: burden, treatment spending, R&D spending, R&D results" is published.[66] 4 646
2014 January 21 Conversation Howard Adelman, Nick Beckstead The participants have a conversation on Adelman's work on refugees issues in Canada.[67][68] 1440 (1437)
2014 January 23 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "What portion of a boost to global GDP goes to the poor?" is published.[69] 1 1001
2014 January 26 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Upward and downward biases in the 'double world GDP' estimates of the gains of open borders" is published.[70] 4 3702
2014 February 24 Paper Global Policy Nick Bostrom "Embryo Selection for Cognitive Enhancement: Curiosity or Game-changer?" is published.[71] 5630 (5736)
2014 March 11 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "GiveDirectly, happiness, and log income" is published.[72] 6 829
2014 March 13 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Tech and finance in the Forbes 2013 billionaire list" is published.[73] 0 478
2014 May 5 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "What do null fields tell us about fraud risk?" is published.[74] 4 4263
2014 May 7 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Migration levies and unskilled labor mobility in Singapore" is published.[75] 0 4996
2014 May 14 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "What does migration to the United Arab Emirates tell us about labor mobility?" is published.[76] 0 4068
2014 May 27 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "How migration liberalization might eliminate most absolute poverty" is published.[77] 0 2060
2014 June 5 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Increasing and improving saving as a philanthropic cause" is published.[78] 6 3766
2014 August 21 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Population ethics and inaccessible populations" is published.[79] 7 3655
2014 September 3 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Second generation human capital benefits of migration" is published.[80] 2 3820
2015 November 1 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Trends in farmed animal life-years per kg and per human in the United States" is published.[81] 5 2689
2015 November 4 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Some considerations for prioritization within animal agriculture" is published.[82] 9 3397
2015 November 5 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Various functional forms for brain-weighting wild insects and farmed land animals favor the former" is published.[83] 3 845
2015 December 25 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium*, Effective Altruism Forum "The age distribution of GiveWell recommended charities" is published.[84][85] 2, 2 863
2016 March 27 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Creating a donor-advised fund lottery" is published.[86] 3 731
2016 May Paper AI & Society Stuart Armstrong, Nick Bostrom "Racing to the precipice: a model of artificial intelligence development" is published. The Springer website states the paper was first received on April 29, 2015.[87] 3733 (3832)
2016 June 20 Google Doc Claire Zabel A document containing Shulman's research advice is published.[88][1] 1297
2016 August 17 Blog post *Reflective Disequilibrium* "Annual 'splitting' of funding gaps can be partial funging when gaps carry over across years" is published.[89] 4 1909
2016 August 19 Conversation Luke Muehlhauser The Open Philanthropy Project has a conversation with Shulman as part of its investigation of moral patienthood. The conversation focuses on "cognitive procedures that might be useful when considering one's moral intuitions and judgments".[90] 1872 (1949)
2016 October 25 Blog post Effective Altruism Forum Jeff Kaufman, Gregory Lewis, Oliver Habryka, Claire Zabel "Concerns with Intentional Insights" is published.[91] 182 4485
2016 December 7 Blog post Effective Altruism Forum "Donor lotteries: demonstration and FAQ" is published.[92] 33 3072
2016 December 31 Blog post Effective Altruism Forum "Risk-neutral donors should plan to make bets at the margin at least as well as giga-donors in expectation" is published.[93] 8 5886

Meta information on the timeline

How the timeline was built

The original timeline was written by Issa Rice. Vipul Naik provided funding through a stipend but no specific task payment.

The timeline was constructed by going through both formal publications and blog posts in various venues with substantive content.

On July 5, 2017 word counts were added at the suggestion of gwern.

What the timeline is still missing

A quality rating and summary might be useful; see the comment by gwern.

Timeline update strategy

Go through new posts on Shulman's blog, EA Forum, LessWrong, and so forth.

See also

External links

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 "Research advice". Google Docs. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  2. "Overcoming Bias : About". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  3. "Overcoming Bias : Welcome Carl Shulman". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  4. 4.0 4.1 "5 ways to be misled by salary rankings - 80,000 Hours". 80,000 Hours. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  5. "Overcoming Bias : Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  6. "Overcoming Bias : A Christmas Gift for Rationalists". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  7. "Overcoming Bias : Should we Defer to Secret Evidence?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  8. "Overcoming Bias : Sick of Textbook Errors". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  9. "Overcoming Bias : Brain Emulation and Hard Takeoff". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  10. "Overcoming Bias : "Evicting" brain emulations". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  11. 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 "Timeline of Carl Shulman publications - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  12. "WhichConsequentialism.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  13. "MachineEthicsSuperintelligence.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  14. "Don't Revere The Bearer Of Good Info - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  15. "ArmsControl.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  16. "BasicAIDrives.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  17. "SoftwareLimited.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  18. "SuperintelligenceBenevolence.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  19. "WBE-Superorgs.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  20. "ReducingRisks.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  21. "Politics as Charity - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  22. "Probability and Politics - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  23. "High Impact Science - 80,000 Hours". 80,000 Hours. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  24. "How Hard is Artificial Intelligence? Evolutionary Arguments and Selection Effects - aievolution.pdf" (PDF). Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  25. "Salary or startup? How do-gooders can gain more from risky careers - 80,000 Hours". 80,000 Hours. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  26. "Feed the spinoff heuristic! - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  27. "How to become Prime Minister - 80,000 Hours". 80,000 Hours. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  28. "Entrepreneurship: a game of poker, not roulette - 80,000 Hours". 80,000 Hours. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  29. "Software engineering: Britain vs Silicon Valley - 80,000 Hours". 80,000 Hours. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  30. "Using degrees of freedom to change the past for fun and profit - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  31. "Are pain and pleasure equally energy-efficient?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  32. "Utilitarianism, contractualism, and self-sacrifice". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  33. "Philosophers vs economists on discounting". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  34. "Economic growth: more costly disasters, better prevention". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  35. "What to eat during impact winter?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  36. "Rawls' original position, potential people, and Pascal's Mugging". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  37. "Can catch-up growth take us to the stars?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  38. "Spreading happiness to the stars seems little harder than just spreading". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  39. "Overcoming Bias : Alms is not about alms experts". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  40. "Nuclear winter and human extinction: Q&A with Luke Oman". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  41. "Overcoming Bias : Nuclear winter and human extinction: Q&A with Luke Oman". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  42. "Breeding happier animals: no futuristic tech required". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  43. "Overcoming Bias : Breeding happier livestock: no futuristic tech required". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  44. "Carl Shulman -Could we use untrustworthy human brain emulations to make trustworthy ones?". YouTube. May 4, 2013. Retrieved July 13, 2017. 
  45. "AGI-Impacts: Extended Abstracts". Winter Intelligence Conferences. Retrieved July 13, 2017. 
  46. "Future Filter Fatalism". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  47. "Overcoming Bias : Future Filter Fatalism". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  48. "Overcoming Bias : The SAEE: who was right?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  49. "Normative uncertainty in Newcomb's problem - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  50. "Why do theists, undergrads, and Less Wrongers favor one-boxing on Newcomb? - Less Wrong". LessWrong. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  51. "Open borders in (at least) one (developed) country". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  52. "How immigration could make AMF more cost-effective". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  53. "Vegan advocacy and pessimism about wild animal welfare". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  54. "Flow Through Effects Conversation". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  55. "How are brain mass (and neurons) distributed among humans and the major farmed land animals?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  56. "A Conversation with Carl Shulman on September 25, 2013" (PDF). Retrieved July 10, 2017. 
  57. "A Long-run perspective on strategic cause selection and philanthropy - Effective Altruism Forum". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  58. "Thoughts on GiveWell's 2013 recommendations". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  59. "What proxies to use for flow-through effects?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  60. "How to think about displacing Good Ventures in funding GiveWell Labs?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  61. "Turning log-consumption into a [crude] measure of short-run human welfare". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  62. "Recent growth at Giving What We Can and GiveWell". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  63. "If big donors have much better opportunities than small donors, then small donors can go to Las Vegas, or Wall Street". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  64. "It's harder to favor a specific cause in more efficient charitable markets". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  65. "A glance at the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DfID), and careers in government grantmaking". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  66. "Cancer vs malaria: burden, treatment spending, R&D spending, R&D results". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  67. "Howard Adelman on 21 January 2014.pdf". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  68. "Carl Shulman". Open Borders: The Case. March 18, 2015. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  69. "What portion of a boost to global GDP goes to the poor?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  70. "Upward and downward biases in the "double world GDP" estimates of the gains of open borders". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  71. "Embryo Selection for Cognitive Enhancement: Curiosity or Game‐changer?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  72. "GiveDirectly, happiness, and log income". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  73. "Tech and finance in the Forbes 2013 billionaire list". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  74. "What do null fields tell us about fraud risk?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  75. "Migration levies and unskilled labor mobility in Singapore". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  76. "What does migration to the United Arab Emirates tell us about labor mobility?". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  77. "How migration liberalization might eliminate most absolute poverty". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  78. "Increasing and improving saving as a philanthropic cause". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  79. "Population ethics and inaccessible populations". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  80. "Second generation human capital benefits of migration". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  81. "Trends in farmed animal life-years per kg and per human in the United States". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  82. "Some considerations for prioritization within animal agriculture". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  83. "Various functional forms for brain-weighting wild insects and farmed land animals favor the former". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  84. "The age distribution of GiveWell recommended charities". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  85. "The age distribution of GiveWell recommended charities - Effective Altruism Forum". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  86. "Creating a donor-advised fund lottery". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  87. "Racing to the precipice: a model of artificial intelligence development". SpringerLink. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  88. "Claire Zabel - Carl Shulman very generously shared some of his...". June 20, 2016. Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  89. "Annual 'splitting' of funding gaps can be partial funging when gaps carry over across years". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  90. "A conversation with Carl Shulman, August 19, 2016" (PDF). Retrieved July 10, 2017. 
  91. "Concerns with Intentional Insights - Effective Altruism Forum". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  92. "Donor lotteries: demonstration and FAQ - Effective Altruism Forum". Retrieved June 5, 2017. 
  93. "Risk-neutral donors should plan to make bets at the margin at least as well as giga-donors in expectation - Effective Altruism Forum". Retrieved June 5, 2017.