Difference between revisions of "Timeline of nuclear risk"

Revision as of 13:36, 21 November 2023

This is a timeline of nuclear risk, which refers to the potential dangers and uncertainties associated with the possession, development, deployment, and potential use of nuclear weapons and nuclear energy. Nuclear risk encompasses a range of threats, including the accidental or unauthorized detonation of nuclear weapons, the proliferation of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear states or non-state actors, the possibility of intentional nuclear attacks during conflicts, and the risks posed by nuclear accidents or disasters at nuclear power plants or other nuclear facilities.

Sample questions

The following are some interesting questions that can be answered by reading this timeline:

• What are some adverse consequences related to nuclear activities having occurred throughout history?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Dynamics" and look for the rows with value "Adverse consequence".
  • You will see a number of notable cases, often differing in their nature, causes, and contexts in which they occurred. Some are the result of intentional actions, such as nuclear attacks or high-profile assassinations, while others are the outcome of non-intentional events, like nuclear accidents.
• What are some historical events increasing nuclear risk?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Dynamics" and look for the rows with value "Risk".
  • You will see all the events increasing nuclear risk, including accidents and terrorist or illicit activities, but also those resulting in proliferation, such as nuclear weapon programs launches by major powers.
• What efforts have been made throughout history with the purpose to mitigate nuclear risk?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Dynamics" and look for the rows with value "Prevention". You will see a number of multifaceted efforts involving various measures, policies, and international collaborations. Key initiatives include international agreements like the Non-Proliferation Treaty and arms control treaties such as START. Also bilateral agreements, diplomatic initiatives, and nuclear security summits contribute to trust-building and disarmament. National policies focusing on responsible nuclear arsenal management are also included.
• Which states have developed nuclear weapons or launched nuclear weapon programs?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Event type" and look for the rows with value "Nuclear weapon program".
  • You will see the initiation of nuclear weapon programs by states, which heighten nuclear risk as they may lead to proliferation concerns, geopolitical tensions, arms race dynamics, crisis instability, deterrence challenges, increased nuclear terrorism risks, global governance challenges, and environmental/humanitarian concerns.
• What are some historical notable nuclear tests?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Event type" and look for the rows with value "Nuclear test".
  • You will see detonations of nuclear weapons or devices for experimental or military purposes. Nuclear tests are considered nuclear risk cases, as they release large amounts of radiation into the atmosphere, which can contaminate the environment and cause health problems for people who live nearby.
• What are some notable collaborations in nuclear technology?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Event type" and look for the rows with value "binational cooperation".
  • You will see joint nuclear efforts. While these may aim for peaceful purposes, they can elevate nuclear risks due to concerns about the ultimate intentions of the involved parties.
• What are some notable cases of illicit nuclear trafficking?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Event type" and look for the rows with value "Illicit nuclear trafficking".
  • You will see nuclear smuggling, which heightens nuclear risk by facilitating the unauthorized spread of nuclear materials and technologies.
• What are some significant milestones in the context of nuclear diplomacy and efforts to manage nuclear risks?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Event type" and look for the rows with value "Diplomacy".
  • You will see events highlighting the role of diplomacy in shaping key agreements and treaties related to nuclear non-proliferation, arms control, and disarmament, contributing to global efforts to manage nuclear risks.
• What are some events connected to international resolutions related to nuclear weapons and non-proliferation?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Event type" and look for the rows with value "International resolution".
  • You will see a list of resolutions taken by the international community to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, ensure disarmament, and manage potential threats.
• What are some organizational contributions to the Anti-nuclear movement?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Event type" and look for the rows with value "Anti-nuclear movement".
  • You will see a number of notable events contributing to the Anti-nuclear movement by fostering awareness, advocating for disarmament, recognizing contributions to peace efforts, addressing environmental concerns, and promoting international cooperation to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
• What are some events involving intentional attacks on nuclear power plants and facilities, contributing to nuclear risk?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Event type" and look for the rows with value "Attack on nuclear power plant".
  • You will see a number of attacks targeting nuclear facilities, increasing the potential for regional instability, escalation of conflicts, and the need for robust security measures to mitigate nuclear risks.
• What are some cases involving illicit nuclear trafficking contributing to nuclear risks?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Event type" and look for the rows with value "Illicit nuclear trafficking".
  • You will see a number of events involving trafficking of nuclear materials, which could be used for nuclear weapons development or other unauthorized nuclear activities. The potential involvement of states in these activities further complicates efforts to maintain global nuclear security and non-proliferation.
• What are some notable publications issued by reputable international organizations and scholarly bodies on the topic of nuclear risk?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Event type" and look for the rows with value "Notable publication".
  • You will see a number of legal and scholarly documents related to international law, nuclear disarmament, and global security.
• Who are some individuals having been recognized for their contributions to peace, disarmament, and international understanding?
  • Sort the full timeline by "Event type" and look for the rows with value "Recognition of individuals".
  • You will see a number of notable individuals being recognized with the Albert Einstein Peace Prize and the William and Katherine Estes Award. Both prizes seek to contribute to reducing nuclear risk and promoting peace.
• Other events are described under the following types: "Background", "Concept development", "Cyberattack", "High-profile assassination", "Missile defence", "Notable warning", "Nuclear weapon program shutdown", and Nuclear proliferation.

Big picture

Full timeline

Taxonomy

The timeline is composed of 5 columns. In addition to Year and Details columns, we include:

• Dynamics: We divide nuclear risk into three main components: the risk case, which involves the factors and scenarios that contribute to the potential dangers; the prevention case, which encompasses the strategies, measures, and initiatives implemented to mitigate and manage nuclear risks; and adverse consequences, which are the actual negative outcomes and impacts that result from nuclear activities, whether intended or unintended.
• Risk type: We categorize nuclear risk into three types: Intentional Nuclear Risk, which involves deliberate actions with the intent to use nuclear weapons, such as nuclear attacks or acts of nuclear terrorism; non-intentional, which relates to unintended incidents or accidents involving nuclear activities, leading to the release of radioactive materials; and comprehensive, which encompasses scenarios where both intentional and non-intentional elements are considered.
• Event type: A more granular categorization, which allows for sorting into more specific subsets (see sample questions above).

Inclussion criteria

We include:

• Major international organizations playing various roles in researching, advocating, and implementing measures to address nuclear risks, promoting disarmament, and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
• Publications by major entities serving as authoritative sources on nuclear policy, arms control, and legal perspectives, contributing to public awareness and informed discourse on matters of global importance.
• Nuclear accidents rated level 5 and above in the International Nuclear Event Scale.

We do not include:

• Most national-level agencies.
• Nuclear accidents rated level 4 and below in the International Nuclear Event Scale.
• Anti-nuclear protests.

Timeline

Year	Dynamics	Risk type	Event type	Details	Involved country
1898	Risk case	Comprehensive	Background	Marie and Pierre Curie discover the existence of the elements radium and polonium in their research of pitchblende.[1] As the understanding of radioactivity deepens, it eventually leads to the development of nuclear technologies, including nuclear weapons and nuclear energy. Marie Curie would eventually die of aplastic anaemia, a blood disease that often results from exposure to large amounts of radiation.[2]	France
1900	Risk case	Intentional	Background	Ernest Rutherford identifies two types of radiation, alpha (α) and beta (β), during the study of ionization of gases by uranium.[3]	United Kingdom
1939 (April)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear weapon program	The German nuclear weapons program begins with a secret conference in Berlin, which results in the Ministry of Education initiating a formal uranium research program and banning the export of uranium to other nations. The program launches five months before U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt reads Einstein's letter warning of the potential for nuclear weapons. However, the German atomic weapons program during World War II would not come close to developing a usable weapon. Despite early efforts, various challenges, including scientific miscalculations, bureaucratic inefficiency, doubts among German scientists, and disruptions caused by Allied actions, would hinder its progress. By around 1942, German researchers would become pessimistic about the feasibility of nuclear weapons. The Alsos Mission would be conducted by the Allies towards the end of the war confirming that the German program have not advanced beyond research and development stages. The German uranium would be captured only weeks before Germany's surrender, alleviating any remaining fears of a Nazi atomic bomb.[4][5]	Germany
1939 (September 1)	Risk case	Intentional	Background	World War II begins.[6] This war not only would witness the destructive power of nuclear weapons but also set the stage for the geopolitical and technological dynamics that define the nuclear age, bringing both the risks and challenges associated with nuclear weapons to the forefront of global consciousness.
1939	Risk case	Intentional	Organization	American scientists, including refugees from fascist regimes in Europe, initiate steps to organize a project for military use of the fission process.[7]	United States
1939 (August 2)	Prevention case	Intentional	Notable warning	German-born theoretical physicist Albert Einstein writes a pivotal two-page letter to President Roosevelt, initiating a course-altering historical moment. The letter, influenced by recent work from physicists Enrico Fermi and Leo Szilard, highlights the potential transformation of uranium into a significant energy source, hinting at the creation of a nuclear chain reaction and the development of powerful new bombs. Einstein, a pacifist, expresses surprise at writing such a letter and warns of secret German research. Despite his earlier skepticism about releasing atomic energy, the letter plays a crucial role in launching the Manhattan Project and the Atomic Age.[8]	United States
1941 (December 6)	Risk case	Intentional	Organization	The Manhattan Project is launched as a top-secret research and development project undertaken by the United States to develop the first nuclear weapons. The project would lead to the successful development and testing of the world's first atomic bombs, which would be later dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The Manhattan Project is a pivotal chapter in history, marking the beginning of the nuclear age and influencing global geopolitics.[7]	United States
1943 (August 19)	Risk case	Intentional	Binational cooperation	The Quebec Agreement is signed between the United Kingdom and the United States, with the purpose to expedite the Tube Alloys project during World War II, which aims to research and develop nuclear weapons. The Quebec Agreement is based on the recognition that pooling British and American resources would accelerate progress while avoiding unnecessary duplication of facilities. The agreement includes provisions to prevent the use of Tube Alloys against each other or third parties without consent. It also addresses the division of post-war industrial and commercial advantages and establishes a Combined Policy Committee to oversee collaboration, allocate resources, and ensure information sharing across various aspects of the project.[9]	United Kingdom, United States
1945 (July 16)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear test	In the New Mexico desert, American scientists conduct "Trinity," the first nuclear weapons test, marking the beginning of the atomic age.[10] A plutonium implosion device named "Gadget" is detonated atop a 100-foot tower, releasing 18.6 kilotons of power. The explosion vaporizes the tower and turns the surrounding area into green glass, known as "trinitite." Witnesses from as far as 200 miles away report seeing the flash and feeling the heat.[11]	United States
1945 (August)	Adverse consequence	Intentional	Nuclear attack on civilians	The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, during World War II, mark the first use of atomic weapons against people. Tens of thousands are killed instantly, with many more succumbing to radiation poisoning. Historical estimates would range from a "low" of around 110,000 total dead (70,000 at Hiroshima and 40,000 at Nagasaki) to a "high" of around 210,000 total dead (140,000 at Hiroshima and 70,000 at Nagasaki).[12] The long-term health effects of the atomic bombings would lead survivors facing increased risks of leukemia and other cancers. Studies on children born to survivors would also show impacts like small head size and mental disability.[13] The bombings demonstrate the devastating power of nuclear weapons and the potential for widespread destruction and loss of life. They also highlight the risks of nuclear accidents and the possibility of nuclear war.	Japan (Empire of Japan), United States
1945 (August 18)	Prevention case	Intentional	Literature (article)	British mathematician, philosopher, logician, and public intellectual Bertrand Russell publishes The Bomb and Civilization, a work he began writing on the day Nagasaki was bombed. In this piece, Russell reflects on the grave outlook for humanity in the aftermath of the atomic bombings. He presents a stark choice for the human race: either face total annihilation or develop some level of common sense. Russell emphasizes the urgent need for new political thinking to avert complete disaster, highlighting the critical importance of global cooperation and rational decision-making in the face of the unprecedented threat posed by nuclear weapons.[14][15]	United Kingdom
1945 (September)	Prevention case	Intentional	Notable publication	The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is founded by Albert Einstein and former Manhattan Project scientists as a response to the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It aims to educate the public about the dangers of nuclear arms and the potential destruction of atomic warfare. The Bulletin would introduce the symbolic Doomsday Clock in 1947 to represent threats to humanity from nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies. Over the years, the clock's setting would be adjusted to reflect changing global circumstances. The organization also would contribute to the formation of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs and would continue to inform people about global security issues and nuclear weapons.[16]	United States
1945 (October 18)	Risk case	Comprehensive	Nuclear weapon program	The French Atomic Energy Commission (Commissariat à l’Énergie Atomique; CEA) is establishes by General Charles de Gaulle with the goal of exploiting the scientific, industrial, and military potential of atomic energy.[17]	France
1946 (March)	Prevention case	Intentional	Notable publication	The Report on the International Control of Atomic Energy (generally known as the Acheson–Lilienthal Report) is created during the early Cold War, proposing a plan to prevent a nuclear arms race by advocating the sharing of nuclear energy knowledge and implementing inspections for peaceful use. The report recommends international cooperation with an agency possessing affirmative powers and inspection capabilities. It also suggests a progressive disclosure of nuclear information. The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining U.S. security during international discussions and the gradual transfer of authority over nuclear-related activities. However, American financier Bernard Baruch later modifies the plan as the Baruch Plan, which would be rejected by the Soviet Union.[18][19]	United States, Soviet Union
1946 (June)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The United States government proposes the Baruch Plan to the United Nations Atomic Energy Commission.[20] The plan aims to achieve global cooperation on nuclear control by decommissioning all US atomic weapons and sharing nuclear technology with other countries, on the condition that they pledge not to produce atomic weapons and accept strict inspections and sanctions. The plan also proposes creating an International Atomic Development Authority under the United Nations to control nuclear energy. However, the Soviet Union rejects the plan, fearing it would maintain the US nuclear monopoly, and the Cold War nuclear arms race ensues. The Baruch Plan would remain significant in discussions about international nuclear cooperation and arms control.[21]	United States
1946	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Organization (national)	The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) is established as the federal regulator of nuclear power and materials in Canada, replacing the Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB). Today, its mandate, under the Nuclear Safety and Control Act of 1997, is to regulate nuclear energy, substances, and equipment to reduce safety, environmental, and national security risks, and to comply with international obligations such as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The CNSC reports to the Parliament of Canada through the Minister of Natural Resources.[22]	Canada
1946	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (nonprofit)	Albert Einstein and Leó Szilárd establish the Emergency Committee of Atomic Scientists (ECAS) with the goal of warning the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons and promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy.[23] The committee, consisting of eight members, including prominent scientists like Linus Pauling and Hans Bethe, advocates for world peace to prevent the use of nuclear weapons.[24] ECAS would oppose the development of the hydrogen bomb and would conduct lecture tours and produce materials to support their message.[25][26][27][28] Despite initial fundraising success, the committee would be disbanded in 1950, with members continuing to campaign against nuclear war and participating in the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs.[29]	United States
1947	Risk case	Intentional		The Doomsday Clock is introduced, and set seven minutes to midnight.[30] It is a symbol that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe, in the opinion of the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.[31]
1949 (August 29)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear test	The Soviet Union conducts its first nuclear weapon test using the RDS-1, also known as Izdeliye 501 or First Lightning.[32] The bomb has a yield of 22 kilotons TNT equivalent and is an implosion-type weapon with a solid plutonium core.[33] The test's effects are more destructive than anticipated.[34] Western powers become surprised by the test, as they had underestimated the Soviet Union's nuclear capabilities.[35] The United States, in response, begins tracking nuclear fallout debris to confirm the test. President Harry S. Truman publicly acknowledges the Soviet test on September 23, 1949, marking a pivotal moment in the early stages of the Cold War and leading to increased pressure to develop hydrogen bombs.[36]	Soviet Union
1950	Prevention case	Intentional		In a letter to the editor of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Leo Szilard warns that it would be possible to rig an H-bomb with materials that would create enough fallout to kill everyone on earth. This would become known as a "cobalt bomb."[37]	United States
1952 (June 13)	Prevention case	Non-intentional	Organization (national)	The Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) is established as the primary nuclear regulatory authority of Israel. Concealed from the public until 1954, the IAEC oversees two research centers and advises the government on nuclear policy, representing Israel internationally. Key units include the Department for Nuclear Engineering (promoting reactor and nuclear power infrastructure, including desalination research), the Licensing and Safety Department (formulating safety policies, managing nuclear power stations and waste, and overseeing radiation dangers), and the Unit for Diplomatic Relations. Since 1966, the IAEC Chairman would be the Prime Minister.[38][39]	Israel
1952 (October 3)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear test	Operation Hurricane is conducted in the Montebello Islands, Western Australia, as the first British nuclear test, driven by the desire to maintain its status as a global power and not rely solely on the United States for atomic capabilities. The decision to develop the bomb is initially kept secret, with only a few officials aware of it. The test takes place off the coast of Australia to avoid mainland contamination. The bomb is detonated on the anchored frigate HMS Plym, resulting in a massive explosion that vaporizes the ship and sends debris into the air. The operation is deemed successful, and no casualties are reported.[40]	United Kingdom, Australia
1953 (December 8)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Atoms for Peace speech is delivered by President Dwight D. Eisenhower to the United Nations General Assembly. In the speech, Eisenhower discusses the language of atomic warfare and proposes an international program called "Atoms for Peace." The program aims to share nuclear technology, equipment, and information for peaceful purposes like research, medicine, and energy production. It seeks to assure the world that the United States intends to use nuclear energy for constructive purposes and not for war.[41][42] However, the program would also face criticism for being a propaganda component of the Cold War strategy of containment and for contributing to the nuclear arms race.[43][44][45][46]
1954 (March 1)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear test	The United States tests its largest thermonuclear weapon test in Bikini Atoll; the detonation being code-named “Castle Bravo”.[47]	United States
1954 (December 26)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear weapon program	The French cabinet discusses proceeding with a French atomic bomb, leading Prime Minister Pierre Mendès France to launch a secret program for atomic bomb development.[17]	France
1955 (January 15)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear weapon program	The Chinese nuclear weapons program is officially initiated. The Soviet Union agrees to provide significant assistance.[48][49]	China
1955	Prevention case	Intentional (terrorist)	Organization (national)	The UK Atomic Energy Authority Constabulary is established as the armed security police force of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority with the purpose to counter potential terrorist threats. It would operate until 1 April 2005.[50][51][52][53]	United Kingdom
1955	Prevention case	Intentional		A group of prominent scientists, including Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein, write what would come to be known as the Russell–Einstein Manifesto, according to which: “No one knows how widely such lethal radioactive particles might be diffused, but the best authorities are unanimous in saying that a war with H-bombs might possibly put an end to the human race… sudden only for a minority, but for the majority a slow torture of disease and disintegration.”[54]
1955	Prevention case	Intentional	Anti-nuclear movement	The Mainau Declaration emerges from a meeting of Nobel laureates in response to the growing nuclear threat. Inspired by Albert Schweitzer and Werner Heisenberg, the laureates from various countries and backgrounds urge political leaders in both East and West to reject the use of force as a means of politics. They specifically warn against the catastrophic consequences of atomic weapons, highlighting the potential for global devastation and the peril of even small conflicts escalating. The declaration emphasizes that nations must renounce force as a last resort, or they risk their own existence. Initially signed by eighteen laureates, the declaration calls for a commitment to peace amid the nuclear age.[55]	Germany
1956	Prevention case	Non-intentional	Organization (national)	The Brazilian National Commission for Nuclear Energy (CNEN) is established to oversee all nuclear activities in Brazil. Undergoing reorganization with its responsibilities defined by new laws and amendments, CNEN would subsequently evolve into the regulatory authority responsible for regulating, licensing, and monitoring nuclear energy, while nuclear electricity generation would be transferred to the electricity sector.[56]	Brazil
1957 (July 29)	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (international)	The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is established as an autonomous intergovernmental organization, following US President Dwight D. Eisenhower's proposal for an international body to oversee nuclear resources. The IAEA aims to promote peaceful uses of atomic energy, ensure its assistance isn't militarized, and prevent nuclear weapon proliferation. It provides technical aid, conducts research, and facilitates conferences. Under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, non-nuclear states must negotiate safeguards with the IAEA, granting the agency authority to monitor and inspect nuclear programs and facilities. The organization's governance involves a General Conference, Board of Governors, and a Secretariat, all headquartered in Vienna. In 2005, the IAEA and its director general, Mohamed ElBaradei, would receive the Nobel Peace Prize.[57][58][59]	178 member states
1957 (September 29)	Risk case	Non-intentional	Nuclear accident	The Kyshtym disaster occurs when buried nuclear waste explodes at a plutonium-processing plant near Kyshtym, Chelyabinsk oblast, Russia (then in the U.S.S.R.). The Soviet government initially denies the event, which contaminates about 9,000 square miles of land, leading to over 10,000 evacuations, and likely causing hundreds of deaths due to radioactivity. It would be classified as a Level 6 accident on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale. The disaster results from a malfunctioning cooling system in a waste tank, leading to a nonnuclear explosion equivalent to 70 tons of TNT. Fallout contains cesium-137 and strontium-90, impacting hundreds of thousands of people. It would remain largely unknown until 1976.[60]	Russia
1957 (October 10)	Risk case	Non-intentional	Nuclear accident	The Windscale fire occurrs at the Windscale nuclear reactor facility in Cumbria, England, making it UK's most severe nuclear accident. During a routine heating procedure in the No. 1 reactor, the graphite control blocks overheated, causing nearby uranium cartridges to rupture. This leads to a fire burning for 16 hours, releasing radioactive materials. Approximately 10 tons of radioactive fuel melts in the reactor core, and significant amounts of radioactive iodine are released into the atmosphere. The incident prompts a ban on milk sales in a 500-square-km area around the reactor site. The contaminated reactor is sealed until the late 1980s when cleanup efforts begin, expected to conclude in 2015.[61]	United Kingdom
1957 (November)	Prevention case	Intentional	Anti-nuclear movement	The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) is launched in Britain as a program dedicated to advocating for nuclear disarmament. CND would become a prominent movement and play a crucial role in raising awareness about the dangers of nuclear weapons and pushing for global nuclear disarmament efforts. The campaign's focus is on promoting peace and eliminating the threat posed by nuclear arms, aiming to create a world free from the devastating impact of nuclear weapons.[62][63]	United Kingdom
1958 (May 17)	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Organization (international)	The Institute of Nuclear Materials Management (INMM) is founded, with its first meeting held in 1959, jointly sponsored by INMM and the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC). Originally formed due to discussions on the need for an independent organization providing expertise in nuclear materials management, INMM would grow to serve as a global resource for scientific, technical, and policy expertise in nuclear materials management, with over 1,200 members, 16 Professional Chapters (10 international), and 24 Student Chapters (10 international). INMM's activities include workshops, an Annual Meeting, the Journal of Nuclear Materials Management, collaboration agreements, support for national standards, and educational programs. INMM collaborates with global entities like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Safeguards Research and Development Association (ESARDA).[64][65]	United States
1958 (October 17)	Prevention case	Intentional	International resolution	Ireland proposes the first resolution at the United Nations to prohibit the “further dissemination of nuclear weapons.”[58]	Ireland
1960 (February 13)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear test	France conducts its first nuclear test explosion, becoming the world’s fourth nuclear state, after the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom.[58][17]	France, Algeria
1960 (June 1)	Prevention case	Non-intentional	Diplomacy	During its Forty-fourth Session, the General Conference of the International Labour Organization convenes in Geneva and adopts the Radiation Protection Convention. This convention applies to all activities involving worker exposure to ionising radiations and outlines measures to protect workers' health and safety. It sets maximum permissible doses and amounts for radiation exposure, prohibits the employment of workers under 16 in radiation work, and mandates medical examinations for workers involved in radiation work. Member countries ratifying the convention are obligated to provide appropriate inspection services to supervise its application. The convention becomes binding upon registration of ratifications and allows for periodic revision.[66]
1960 (October 5)	Risk case	Intentional		The world goes at the brink of nuclear war when a radar alert from Thule, Greenland is sent to the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), announcing the detection of dozens of Soviet missiles launched for the United States.[67] NORAD headquarter in Colorado goes into a panic, but the latter is put to rest when it is realized that Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev is visiting New York at the time. It would be later determined that the radar had mistaken the moon rising over Norway as Soviet missiles.[68]	Greenland, United States
1960				American nuclear physicist Herman Kahn introduces the concept "doomsday machine" in his book On Thermonuclear War. It is a hypothetical device that would automatically trigger a global nuclear holocaust in response to a nuclear attack.[69]	United States
1961 (November 24)				On an evening, communication links between Strategic Air Command headquarters (SAC HQ) and NORAD go dead, resulting in the lost communication with three Ballistic Missile Early Warning Sites (BMEWS) around the world, all of which were supposed to run on independent telephone and telegraph lines.[70]	United States
1961 (December 4)	Prevention case	Intentional	International resolution	The United Nations General Assembly unanimously adopts Resolution 1665, which is built upon an earlier draft resolution from Ireland. The resolution urges for negotiations to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons to additional states. Its key provisions require countries already possessing nuclear weapons to commit to retaining control over them and refraining from sharing information for their production with non-nuclear states. Simultaneously, countries without nuclear weapons agree not to acquire or develop such weapons. These fundamental principles lay the groundwork for the creation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a landmark international agreement aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and promoting disarmament.[58][71]	United Nations General Assembly members
1961 (December 20)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The McCloy–Zorin Accords are agreed upon by the United States and the USSR, as a basis for future multilateral negotiations on disarmament. The goal is to achieve general and complete disarmament, with war no longer being an instrument for settling international problems. The program proposes a phased approach to disarmament, including the disbanding of armed forces, elimination of weapons stockpiles, and cessation of military expenditures. Strict and effective international control would ensure all parties' compliance, and measures to strengthen institutions for maintaining peace were to accompany disarmament. The goal is to achieve the widest possible agreement on the total disarmament program at the earliest possible date.[72]	Soviet Union, United States
1962	Prevention case	Intentional	Concept development	The concept of Mutual assured destruction (MAD) emerges as a strategic doctrine. MAD is based on the belief that if two nuclear-armed adversaries possess enough weapons to guarantee mutual destruction in the event of a nuclear war, it would deter both sides from initiating such an attack. The idea is that the fear of catastrophic retaliation would prevent any rational actor from launching a nuclear strike. This concept would play a significant role in shaping nuclear policies and arms control efforts during the tense period of the Cold War.[73]
1962 (October)	Risk case	Intentional	Risk augmentation	The Cuban Missile Crisis marks a critical moment in the Cold War when the United States and the Soviet Union come perilously close to nuclear conflict. Following the failed Bay of Pigs Invasion and Soviet-Cuban secret agreements, the U.S. discovers evidence of Soviet nuclear missile installations in Cuba. President Kennedy orders a naval "quarantine" of Cuba and communicates directly with Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, emphasizing that any nuclear attack from Cuba would be considered an attack by the USSR. As tensions escalate, Khrushchev offers to remove the missiles in exchange for a pledge not to invade Cuba. Despite some setbacks and miscommunications, the crisis ends peacefully, leading to improved U.S.-Soviet communication and progress towards a nuclear Test Ban Treaty.[74]	Cuba, United States, Soviet Union
1962 (October 27)				During the Cuban Missile Crisis, after a Soviet submarine B-59 loses contact with Moscow for days, the captain orders the use of a nuclear torpedo when a US ship begins dropping practice depth charges to make the submarine surface, with the Russian captain mistaking them for real depth charges, and concluding that war has begun. Aboard commander Vasili Arkhipov countermands the order to fire, thus preventing the nuclear strike and potentially an all-out nuclear war.[75][76] During the crisis, United States President John F. Kennedy would estimate the probability of escalation to nuclear conflict as between 33% and 50%.[77][78]	Cuba, United States, Russia (Soviet Union)
1963 (August 5)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (PTBT) is signed in Moscow by the governments of the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States before it is opened for signature by other countries.[79][80] The treaty aims to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons by prohibiting atmospheric, outer space, and underwater nuclear test detonations, except for those conducted underground.[81] Its inception is driven by rising public concerns over the environmental and health impacts of nuclear tests, particularly those involving hydrogen bombs. The PTBT lays the foundation for arms control efforts and paves the way for subsequent agreements, including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1968.[82]	Soviet Union, United Kingdom, United States
1964 (October 16)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear test	Project 596 marks China's inaugural nuclear weapons test. It is conducted at the Lop Nur test site. Utilizing a uranium-235 implosion fission device constructed from enriched weapons-grade uranium, it yields 22 kilotons. This event establishes China as the fifth nuclear power globally and the first in Asia, further launching a series of 45 successful nuclear tests at Lop Nur between 1964 and 1996. China's nuclear program began in response to Cold War conflicts with the United States, reflecting Mao Zedong's belief that nuclear capabilities would bolster national security. Despite initial Soviet support, the Soviet Union withdrew aid in 1959, prompting China's self-reliance in nuclear development.[83][84][58]	China
1965 (August 17)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The United States submits to the Eighteen Nation Disarmament Committee its first draft proposal to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union submits its first draft a month later.[58]	United States, Soviet Union
1967 (January 27)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Outer Space Treaty is ratified by the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Rooted in the 1962 Declaration of Legal Principles for Outer Space, it outlines fundamental principles of international space law, including that space activities must benefit all nations, space is open to exploration by all states, space cannot be claimed as national territory, weapons of mass destruction are prohibited in space, celestial bodies like the Moon must be used for peaceful purposes, astronauts represent all of humanity, states are responsible for their space activities, they are liable for space object damage, and they must prevent space and celestial body contamination. It would become effective in October 1967.[85]	Soviet Union, United Kingdom, United States
1967 (February 14)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Treaty of Tlatelolco is opened for signature, establishing Latin America and the Caribbean as a nuclear-weapon-free zone. It is the first of five such regional zones to be negotiated. The other zones cover Africa, Southeast Asia, the South Pacific, and Central Asia.[58]	Latin America and the Caribbean
1967 (May 23)				A major solar flare causes radars at all three Ballistic Missile Early Warning System (BMEWS) sites in the far Northern Hemisphere to become jammed, the latter being a signal of attack.[86]	United States
1967	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear weapon program	Israel secretly acquires the capability to build a nuclear explosive device.[58]	Israel
1967				Hungarian-British essayist Arthur Koestler writes: [B]efore the thermonuclear bomb, man had to live with the idea of his death as an individual; from now onward, mankind has to live with the idea of its death as a species. The bomb has given us the power to commit genosuicide; and within a few years we should even have the power to turn our planet into a nova, an exploding star. Every age has had its Cassandras [and] mankind has managed to survive regardless of their sinister prophecies. But this comforting argument is no longer valid, as no past age, however convulsed by war and pestilence, has possessed our newly acquired power over life on the planet as a whole.[87]	United Kingdom
1967 (August 24)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The United States and Soviet Union separately introduce identical draft treaties to the Eighteen Nation Disarmament Committee on preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.[58]	United States, Soviet Union
1968 (June 12)	Prevention case	Intentional	International resolution	The UN General Assembly approves Resolution 2373, endorsing the preliminary text of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The resolution passes with a majority vote of 95 in favor, while 4 countries—Albania, Cuba, Tanzania, and Zambia—vote against it. Additionally, 21 countries chose to abstain from the vote. The NPT aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote disarmament efforts among nations. This endorsement marks a significant step towards establishing a framework for nuclear nonproliferation and cooperation.[58]
1968 (June 19)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The United Nations Security Council Resolution 255 is adopted, addressing measures to protect non-nuclear-weapon states that are parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The resolution aims to safeguard these non-nuclear-armed nations by providing security assurances against the threat or use of nuclear weapons. It was adopted with a vote of 10 in favor, 0 against, and 5 abstentions during the 1433rd meeting. The resolution reflects the international community's commitment to promoting disarmament and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons among states.[88]
1968 (July 1)	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Diplomacy	The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is signed. It is an international agreement aiming to curb the spread of nuclear weapons and technology, encourage peaceful nuclear energy cooperation, and promote disarmament. Negotiated between 1965 and 1968, it would enter into force on March 5, 1970, with 190 parties. The treaty recognizes five nuclear-weapon states (United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China), and seeks to prevent non-nuclear-weapon states from acquiring nuclear weapons, while obliging nuclear-weapon states to work towards disarmament. Despite criticisms, the NPT remains a significant tool in global efforts to control nuclear proliferation and promote peaceful nuclear cooperation.[89][58][90]
1968	Risk case	Intentional	Illicit nuclear trafficking	Operation Plumbat: Israel intelligence agency orchestrates a bold operation using front companies to purchase uranium oxide, or yellowcake, in Antwerp. The yellowcake is concealed in drums labeled "plumbat" and loaded onto a freighter named Scheersberg A, leased by a fictitious Liberian company. The Israelis, with the help of German officials, disguise the transaction as a deal between German and Italian firms. When the ship docks in Rotterdam, the entire crew is dismissed under the guise of a sale, and an Israeli crew takes over. Under Israeli naval guard, the cargo is transferred to another vessel in the Mediterranean, effectively disappearing an entire freighter of uranium ore.[91]	Israel
1969 (November)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomatic conference	The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) begins as bilateral conferences between the United States and the Soviet Union. SALT I, initiated in Helsinki, leads to the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and an interim agreement. SALT II, launched in 1972, aims to reduce strategic nuclear weapons. Although an agreement would be reached in 1979, the US Senate wouldn't ratify it due to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The talks would lay groundwork for the START treaties, particularly START I in 1991 and START II in 1993, focusing on arms reduction. SALT I and SALT II would pave the way for arms control efforts during the Cold War.[92]
1971 (February 11)			International law	The Seabed Arms Control Treaty is signed, with the purpose to ban stationing of weapons of mass destruction on the ocean floor. It would enter into force on May 18, 1972.[93]
1971	Prevention case	Itentional	Organization (international)	The Zangger Committee is founded, consisting in major nuclear suppliers aiming to clarify the implementation of Article III.23 of the NPT. In 1974, they would release a "Trigger List" that identifies items requiring safeguards and guidelines for their export to non-nuclear-weapon States (NNWS) not part of the NPT. These guidelines include three conditions: assurance of non-explosive use, adherence to IAEA Safeguards, and re-transfer provisions, requiring recipient states to apply the same conditions during re-export. These Trigger List and Guidelines are documented as IAEA document INFCIRC/209, subject to periodic amendments.[94]
1972 (May 26)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty is signed[95] as an arms control treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union on the limitation of the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems used in defending areas against ballistic missile-delivered nuclear weapons. It is intended to reduce pressures to build more nuclear weapons to maintain deterrence.[96]	United States, Soviet Union
1974 (May 18)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear test	Using a reactor provided by Canada for “peaceful” purposes[97], India becomes the first non-nuclear-weapon state to conduct a nuclear test, called Operation Smiling Buddha. A non–NPT member, New Delhi insists the test is a “peaceful” nuclear explosion to mollify international criticism.[58] Nuclear materials were supplied by the United States, and the Canadian reactor was used to produce plutonium for the nuclear explosive. This case can be seen as an example of how early civilian nuclear assistance could lead to the foundation of nuclear weapon programs.[97]	India
1974 (July 3)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) is initiated between the United States and the Soviet Union. This treaty sets a limit by prohibiting nuclear tests exceeding 150 kilotons. It specifically restricts the testing of nuclear weapons beyond the fractional-megaton range. Both the United States and the Soviet Union agree to verification measures involving hydrodynamic yield measurements, seismic monitoring, and on-site inspections. TTBT would enter into force on 11 December 1990, marking an important milestone in nuclear arms control efforts between these two major powers.[98][99]	Soviet Union, United States
1974	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Organization (international)	The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is formed.[100] It is an international organization consisting of nuclear supplier countries formed in response to India's 1974 nuclear tests, which highlights the risk of nuclear proliferation. It initially has seven member countries but would grow to include 48 participating governments. NSG aims to control the export of materials and technology related to nuclear weapons development through a set of guidelines. These guidelines are divided into Part 1 and Part 2, covering nuclear-use items and nuclear-related dual-use items. India's attempts to join the NSG would be thwarted due to its non-signatory status to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and opposition from countries like China.[101]	48 participating governments
1974 (August 1)	Prevention case	Intentional		As a result of the Watergate scandal, United States President Richard Nixon becomes clinically depressed, emotionally unstable, and drinking heavily. As a mode of precaution U.S. Secretary of Defense James R. Schlesinger instruct the Joint Chiefs of Staff to route “any emergency order coming from the president”—such as a nuclear launch order— through him first.” [102]	United States
1974 (September 3)	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Notable publication	The International Atomic Energy Agency publishes the “trigger list” developed by the Zangger Committee, identifying nuclear items that require IAEA safeguards as a condition of export.[58]
1975 (January 19)	Prevention case	Non-intentional	Organization (national)	The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is formed as an independent U.S. government agency, through the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974. It is responsible for safeguarding public health and safety in matters related to nuclear energy. The NRC oversees reactor safety, security, and licensing, manages radioactive materials, and handles the storage, security, recycling, and disposal of spent nuclear fuel. After the dissolution of the Atomic Energy Commission, the NRC was formed to provide impartial oversight of nuclear energy, medicine, and safety. The NRC's mission encompasses regulating commercial reactors, nuclear materials use, and nuclear waste management. It is led by appointed commissioners, including Chairman Christopher T. Hanson.[103]	United States
1975 (May 30)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The 91 states-parties to the NPT hold the treaty’s first review conference.[58]
1975	Risk case	Intentional (state program)	Binational cooperation	Taiwan receives nuclear assistance from France.[104][97] In the same year, the CIA reports, “Taipei conducts its small nuclear program with a weapon option clearly in mind, and it will be in a position to fabricate a nuclear device after five years or so.”[105]	Taiwan
1976	Risk case	Intentional (state program)	Binational cooperation	Iraq signs an agreement for nuclear cooperation with France, which provides Osiris-class nuclear reactor.[97] Intended for peaceful scientific research[106], in 1981 it would be destroyed by the Israelis, who believe it was designed to make nuclear weapons.	Iraq
1976			Notable comment	Iosif Shklovsky argues that global self-destruction is the result of capitalist ideology, which doesn't take into account a potential ‘communist transformation of society’ which would ‘remove the very possibility of such crisis situations’.[107]	Russia (Soviet Union)
1977	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Diplomacy	The Jimmy Carter administration launches the International Fuel Cycle Evaluation (INFCE), a program spanning two years, aimed to assess the nuclear fuel cycle globally. The primary objective is to minimize the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation while preserving the peaceful applications of nuclear power. INFCE focuses on technical analytical studies without engaging in formal international agreements. The effort seeks to address issues associated with existing export guidelines, particularly those of the 'London Club,' aiming to enhance inclusivity and ensure a more reliable supply of nuclear materials.[108][109]	United States
1978 (January 11)	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Notable publication	Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) member states provide the International Atomic Energy Agency with the first NSG Guidelines, a common set of guidelines they would follow in making nuclear exports. They are published as an Information Circular to apply to nuclear transfers to non-nuclear weapons states for peaceful purposes to help ensure that such transfers would not be diverted to unsafeguarded nuclear fuel cycle or nuclear explosive activities.[110][58]	NSG
1978	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Policy (national)	The United States Congress passes the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act to put further restrictions on US nuclear exports.[108]	United States
1978	Prevention case	Non-intentional	Organization (nonprofit)	The Nuclear Information and Resource Service (NIRS) is founded. It is an anti-nuclear-energy advocacy group based in Takoma Park, Maryland. A 501(c)(3) tax-exempt organization, NIRS would be part of a coalition opposing nuclear power in a letter to Congress seeking "100 percent decarbonization" while denouncing nuclear energy as "dirty." It would also express opposition to the "American Nuclear Infrastructure Act of 2020," considering nuclear power a false solution to climate change. In 2021, NIRS would label nuclear energy as "dirty" and call for a renewable electricity standard, excluding nuclear and promoting weather-dependent power sources.[111][112]	United States
1979 (March 18)	Adverse consequence	Non-intentional	Nuclear accident	The Three Mile Island accident occurs at the TMI-2 reactor in Pennsylvania, releasing radioactive gases and iodine into the environment. It is the worst incident in U.S. commercial nuclear power plant history, rated Level 5 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. Mechanical failures and operator misjudgments, compounded by design flaws, lead to a loss-of-coolant accident. The event heightens anti-nuclear concerns, prompting new industry regulations and hindering reactor development. Epidemiological studies on cancer rates yield conflicting results. Cleanup, costing about $1 billion, would conclude in 1993.[113] TMI-1, restarted in 1985, would be retired in 2019, with decommissioning expected by 2079 at a $1.2 billion estimate.[114]
1979 (September 22)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear test (suspicion)	The Vela incident occurs when an unexplained double flash of light is detected by an American Vela Hotel satellite, near the South African territory of Prince Edward Islands in the Indian Ocean. While the exact cause of the flash remains officially unknown, many independent researchers would believe it is an undeclared joint nuclear test conducted by South Africa and Israel. Despite some speculation about natural causes, the consensus would lean towards a clandestine nuclear test, with Israel and South Africa as possible culprits. The incident would remain shrouded in mystery and controversy to this time, with ongoing debates and investigations.[115]	South Africa, Israel, United States
1979 (October 26)	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Diplomacy	The Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM) is adopted in Vienna, under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This legal instrument establishes obligations for Parties regarding the physical protection of nuclear material during international transport and criminalizes offenses related to nuclear material. Effective from February 8, 1987, an amendment would be adopted in 2005, significantly strengthening the original treaty by extending its scope to cover the protection of nuclear facilities and material in domestic use, storage, and transport. These milestones represent vital developments in the global legal framework for nuclear security.[116]
1979 (November 9)	Risk case	Intentional	Risk augmentation	A frightening incident occurs at around 11:00 a.m., where computer screens at the Pentagon and North American Aerospace Defense Command indicate that the United States is under attack. The source of panic is believed to be Soviet missiles launched from submarines and land. Fighter planes are immediately deployed to investigate, and air raid sirens blar across Strategic Air Command bases. Air traffic controllers are alerted that commercial flights might need to be grounded. Fortunately, it would be later discovered that a technician had mistakenly inserted a training tape into a computer used for a war game exercise simulating a Soviet attack. The incident highlights the importance of verification during the relatively low-tension period of the Cold War.[117][76]	United States, Soviet Union
1979 (December)	Prevention case	Non-intentional	Organization (national)	The Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) is established in Atlanta, Georgia, by the U.S. nuclear power industry in response to the Three Mile Island accident and recommendations from the Kemeny Commission Report. INPO has the mission to ensure the highest levels of safety and reliability in nuclear power plant operations. All U.S. organizations operating commercial nuclear power plants become INPO members. INPO also collaborates with international nuclear operating organizations and participates in the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO). The National Academy for Nuclear Training, operating under INPO, focuses on quality training and professionalism, integrating efforts from various nuclear utilities and accrediting boards.[118]	United States
1979			Literature	The United States Congress' Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) publishes The Effects of Nuclear War,[119] a study examining the full range of effects that nuclear war would have on civilians: direct effects from blast and radiation; and indirect effects from economic, social, and politicai disruption. Particular attention is devoted to the ways in which the impact of a nuclear war would extend over time.[120]	United States
1979			Literature	American engineer Cresson Kearny publishes Nuclear War Survival Skills: Lifesaving Nuclear Facts and Self-Help Instructions, which aims to provide a general audience with advice on how to survive conditions likely to be encountered in the event of a nuclear catastrophe, as well as encouraging optimism in the face of such a catastrophe by asserting the survivability of a nuclear war.[121]	United States
1980	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (national)	The Committee on International Security and Armament Control (CISAC) is established at the United States National Academy of Sciences, with the purpose to maintain bilateral contacts with an analogous group at the Soviet Academy of Science.[122]	United States, Russia
1980	Risk case	Intentional	Attack on nuclear plant	Iranian planes target Iraq's Osirak research reactor, which is still being built. The attack results in damage to surrounding structures but leaves the reactor unharmed.[123]	Iraq, Iran
1980			Research	The earliest appearance of a connection between space exploration and human survival appears in Louis J. Halle, Jr.'s article in Foreign Affairs, in which he states colonization of space will keep humanity safe should global nuclear warfare occur.[124]	United States
1980	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (international)	The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) is established by the United Nations General Assembly. UNIDIR serves to inform nations and the global community about international security matters and to support disarmament efforts. Operating autonomously within the UN structure, it conducts objective research on disarmament and security challenges, addressing issues such as nuclear weapons, conventional arms, new weapon technologies, and gender perspectives. It fosters dialogue among researchers, diplomats, and NGOs, aiming to bridge the gap between research and policy. UNIDIR's work aims to enhance security, economic development, and social well-being, contributing to global disarmament and peace efforts.[125][126]
1980		Intentional	Recognition of individuals	The Albert Einstein Peace Prize is established by the Albert Einstein Peace Prize Foundation, commemorating the centenary of Albert Einstein's birth and inspired by the Russell-Einstein Manifesto advocating nuclear disarmament. Swedish sociologist, diplomat and politician Alva Myrdal is first awarded for her outspoken advocacy for nuclear disarmament and her significant contributions to the achievement of key arms control agreements.[127][128]
1980			Literature	Survival expert Bruce Clayton publishes Life After Doomsday[129], which attempts to provide a comprehensive guide to surviving a nuclear disaster, including detailed instructions on how to build and defend a shelter, store food, treat illnesses and injuries, and cope with the psychological effects of such an event.[130]	United States
1980 (December)	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (international)	The non-partisan federation International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) is established by physicians from the U.S. and the former Soviet Union. With members in 64 countries, including doctors, medical students, and health workers, IPPNW's goal is to create a peaceful world free from nuclear threats. Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1985, IPPNW would remain a global leader advocating for nuclear disarmament. IPPNW contributes to research, education, and policy development to promote global health and security.[131]
1981	Risk case	Intentional	Attacks on nuclear plant	The Israeli Air Force destroys the unfinished Iraqi Osirak reactor during the Operation Opera.[132] This attack would be widely viewed to be a stopgap measure, delaying but not preventing Iraqi nuclear aspirations.[97]	Iraq, Israel
1981	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	American diplomat and historian George F. Kennan is awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize "for his continuing efforts to reduce tension between the United States and the Soviet Union and the world in general."[133][134][135]	United States
1982	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear weapon program	South Africa develops and builds its first nuclear explosive device,[136] with its scientists having been trained by the United States as a result of government-backed programs.[97]	South Africa
1982			Literature	American author Jonathan Schell publishes The Fate of the Earth, which would be regarded as a key document in the nuclear disarmament movement.[137] By the time of this publication, there are almost 60,000 nuclear weapons stockpiled with a destructive force equal to roughly 20,000 megatons (20 billion tons) of TNT, or over 1 million times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.[138][54]	United States
1982	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (international)	The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF) is established as a non-profit international organization focused on education and advocacy.[139] NAPF's mission is to promote a just and peaceful world free from nuclear weapons. With consultative status to the UN Economic and Social Council and recognition as a Peace Messenger Organization, NAPF educates and advocates for nuclear disarmament.[140] Notably, in 2014, NAPF would collaborate with the Marshall Islands to file lawsuits against nine nuclear-armed nations, alleging failure to uphold international obligations for disarmament. This includes a historic case against the U.S., marking the first time a nation is charged domestically for violating a disarmament treaty.[141]
1982	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	McGeorge Bundy, Robert McNamara, and Gerard C. Smith are jointly awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize for their work in opposing pre-emptive nuclear strikes.[142][143][144]	United States
1982–1983	Risk case	Intentional	Illicit nuclear trafficking	India smuggles Chinese heavy water through German nuclear-materials broker Alfred Hempel, who manages to ship 60 tons of heavy water to Bombay.[145][97]	India
1983 (March 23)	Risk case	Intentional	Missile defence	A greater challenge to Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) arises when United States President Ronald Reagan declares his intention to establish a missile defense system, known as the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), which envisions using advanced technology, including space-based lasers, to intercept and destroy incoming ballistic missiles. Reagan believes SDI could eliminate the need for nuclear weapons, potentially ending the Cold War. Critics, however, raise concerns about its high cost, potential to undermine deterrence, and violation of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The Soviet Union objects, complicating arms negotiations. Ultimately, SDI's impact on the Cold War would be mixed, facing substantial opposition and skepticism.[146] Concerns would persist until the program, nicknamed "Star Wars," concludes ten years later. During this time, there are apprehensions that the initiative could heighten the risk of nuclear conflict by weakening the concept of nuclear deterrence.[76][122]	United States
1983 (September 26)	Risk case	Intentional	Risk augmentation	1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident: During the Cold War, the Soviet early-warning radar system, Oko, malfunctions, indicating an incoming U.S. nuclear missile. Stanislov Petrov, an officer familiar with Oko's errors, hesitates to alert superiors and waits for corroborating evidence. No evidence surfaces, and Petrov's inaction likely prevents a nuclear catastrophe. Soon after, NATO's Able Archer 83 exercise, designed to test command procedures, confuses the Soviets. Soviet leader Yuri Andropov prepares for a large-scale retaliation, but a U.S. intelligence officer's decision to wait instead of escalating tensions diffuses the situation, averting a potential nuclear conflict.[147]	Soviet Union, United States
1983	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	American Cardinal Joseph Bernardin is awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize for his significant contributions to the drafting of the United States bishops' pastoral letter calling for new arms agreements.[148]	United States
1984	Risk case	Intentional	Illicit nuclear trafficking	India buys beryllium from a German company.[149][97] Beryllium is a neutron reflector used in nuclear weapons.[150] It is a substitute for gold or natural uranium reflectors in early devices, with the purpose of saving much weight and money.[151]	India, Germany
1984	Prevention case	Intentional	Literature	Carl Sagan and Paul Ehrlich publish The Cold and the Dark, a book discussing long-term biological consequences of nuclear war.[54]	United States
1984	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	Canadian lawyer and politician Pierre Trudeau is awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize for his dedication to promoting disarmament and advocating for peace.[152][153]
1984–1987	Risk case	Intentional	Attack on nuclear plant	During the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq conducts multiple air strikes on Iran's Bushehr power reactors, which are still under construction at the time. These attacks result in significant damage to the reactors.[123]	Iraq, Iran
1985 (March 2)	Prevention case	Intentional	Politics	54-year-old Mikhail Gorbachev is appointed General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. While his full intentions remain unclear, Gorbachev's moderate liberalization measures would result in the dissolution of the Soviet Union.[138] Historian Yuval Noah Harari would call Gorbachev an historical hero, for probably saving the world from nuclear war.[154]	Russia (Soviet Union)
1985 (August 6)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Treaty of Rarotonga, also known as the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty, is signed on the island of Rarotonga. This treaty establishes a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the South Pacific, encompassing nations such as Australia, the Cook Islands, Fiji, New Zealand, and others. It prohibits the use, testing, and possession of nuclear weapons within the zone's borders. The treaty came into force on December 11, 1986, with ratification by 13 parties. The treaty's protocols, binding the declared nuclear states, outline agreements regarding manufacturing, stationing, testing, and use of nuclear weapons within the zone and globally.[155]
1985	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	German politician and statesman Willy Brandt is awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize for his contributions to the promotion of peace, reconciliation, and international understanding.[156]
1986 (April 26)	Adverse consequence	Non-intentional	Nuclear accident	The Chernobyl disaster occurs at the Chernobyl nuclear power station in the Soviet Union, marking the worst disaster in nuclear power generation history. The catastrophe results from a poorly designed experiment at reactor Unit 4, causing a chain reaction to go out of control. Multiple explosions and a fire release substantial radioactive material into the atmosphere. Evacuations commence on the day after, and a subsequent cover-up is revealed by abnormally high radiation levels reported by Swedish monitoring stations. The disaster leads to global concerns, and the aftermath includes deaths, radiation-related illnesses, contamination of land, and the creation of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. This incident would have a devastating effect on nuclear industries around the world, as a result of decline in demand for nuclear power.[97][157]	Ukraine (Soviet Union)
1986	Prevention case	Intentional	Literature	Lydia Dotto publishes Planet Earth in Jeopardy: Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War, A distillation of the report by the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), written for a lay audience. It explores the climatic and atmospheric changes induced, radiation and fallout, and the putative biological consequences of nuclear war.[158]
1986	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (nonprofit)	The Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control is established as a non-profit organization focused on halting the proliferation of nuclear weapons, chemical/biological weapons, and long-range missiles. It operates under the University of Wisconsin in Washington, D.C. Led by Emeritus Professor Gary Milhollin and later Valerie Lincy, the Project conducts research, public education, and advocacy. It publishes The Risk Report, a database used to screen business transactions related to sensitive products and technologies. The Project tracks WMD proliferation through websites like Iraq Watch and Iran Watch. It would play a role in revealing proliferation threats, aiding U.S. trade restrictions, and influencing sanctions against organizations linked to nuclear and missile activities.	United States
1986 (October 11–12)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Reykjavík Summit brings together U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev in Iceland. While the talks collapse due to differences over the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), progress is made. Gorbachev proposes eliminating all nuclear weapons within a decade if SDI research remains in labs for ten years. Reagan wants SDI testing flexibility. Despite no formal agreement, the summit reveals the extent of concessions each side is willing to make and discusses human rights. The Reykjavík Summit is seen as a breakthrough that paves the way for the 1987 INF Treaty, which would lead to the elimination of intermediate-range nuclear forces.[159]	Iceland, United States, Soviet Union
1986	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	Swedish politician and statesman Olof Palme is awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize posthumously for his "wide-ranging efforts on behalf of peace."[160]
1986	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear proliferation	The global size of the nuclear arsenals peaks at 70,000 warheads.[161] Toby Ord estimates the odds that humanity could become extinct over the next century at one in six, with an out-of-control superintelligence, bioterrorism, and totalitarianism among the largest risks.[76]	Countries with nuclear weapons
1987	Adverse consequence	Non-intentional	Nuclear accident	A nuclear incident occurs in Goiania, Brazil, stemming from the radioactive contamination of an abandoned hospital machine containing Cs-137. Two men find and sell the machine to a local junkyard, where it is dismantled, releasing Cs-137. This radioactive isotope, produced spontaneously from nuclear fission, spreads throughout Goiania. Many residents fall ill, with 249 individuals found to have significant levels of radioactive material in or on their bodies out of 112,000 examined. International experts from the United States and the Soviet Union assist in containing the situation. The incident raises awareness about nuclear dangers and equipment containing radioactive materials in Brazil.[162]	Brazil
1987 (April 1)	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (binational)	The United States and the Soviet Union sign an agreement establishing the Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers (NRRC) in Washington and Moscow. This initiative stems from concerns about nuclear tensions, armaments, and delivery systems. Proposed by Senators Sam Nunn and John Warner, the centers start serving as crisis control hubs, exchanging critical information on missile launches, nuclear accidents, and sea incidents. Over the years, their roles would expand, facilitating communications within the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe (later OSCE), handling notifications for arms control treaties like New START, managing missile launch notifications, and addressing cybersecurity concerns. The centers' mandate and IT infrastructure would continue to evolve, leading to their renaming as the U.S. National and Nuclear Risk Reduction Center (NNRRC) in 2021.[163]	United States, Soviet Union
1987 (December 8)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The United States and the Soviet Union sign the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), aimed at eliminating their intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles. The treaty bans nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers with ranges of 500–1,000 kilometers (310–620 mi) (short medium-range) and 1,000–5,500 km (620–3,420 mi) (intermediate-range). While contributing to stability and disarmament during the Cold War, eliminating thousands of missiles, the treaty would face challenges. In 2019, the U.S. would withdraw from the treaty, citing Russian non-compliance and concerns about China's growing missile capabilities, leading to the formal termination of the treaty.[164]
1988	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	Soviet physicist Andrei Sakharov is awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize for his contributions to the promotion of peace, disarmament, and human rights.[165]
1990	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	Soviet and Russian politician Mikhail Gorbachev is awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize for his contributions to promoting peace, disarmament, and international cooperation.[166]
1990	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	The William and Katherine Estes Award is first announced by the United States National Academy of Sciences "to recognize basic research in any field of cognitive or behavioral science that has employed rigorous formal or empirical methods, optimally a combination of these, to advance our understanding of problems or issues relating to the risk of nuclear war".[167] American political scientist Robert Axelrod becomes the first recipient "for his imaginative use of game theory, experimentation, and computer simulation to define and test strategies for confrontation and cooperation and other models of social interaction."[168]	United States
1991 (April 3)	Prevention case	Intentional	International resolution	Resolution 687 of the UN Security Council is approved, demanding Iraq's termination of its concealed nuclear weapons initiative, exposed post its loss in the Gulf War. Iraq had pursued this program against its obligations as an NPT member. With the implementation of Resolution 687, the IAEA obtains enhanced insights into Iraq's covert project and proceeded to disassemble and secure its residual elements.[58]	Iraq
1991 (July 10)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	South Africa accedes to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Two years later, the South African government admits having covertly built six completed nuclear devices and then dismantled them before joining the accord.[58]	South Africa
1991 (July 18)	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Organization (binational)	The Brazilian–Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC) is established[169] as a binational safeguards agency. Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires, ABACC plays a crucial role in verifying the peaceful use of nuclear materials that could potentially be used for weapons of mass destruction. It is formed as a result of nuclear cooperation between Argentina and Brazil, with a focus on ensuring the exclusive peaceful use of nuclear materials in the region and globally. ABACC is unique as the world's only binational safeguards organization, working to prevent nuclear weapon proliferation.	Argentina, Brazil
1991 (July 31)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The United States and the Soviet Union sign the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, a bilateral agreement aimed at reducing and limiting strategic offensive arms. Effective from December 5, 1994, the treaty prohibits the deployment of more than 6,000 nuclear warheads and a total of 1,600 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and bombers. It negotiates the largest arms control treaty to date, ultimately eliminating around 80% of existing strategic nuclear weapons. Proposed by President Ronald Reagan, it would be named START I when negotiations begin on START II. The treaty would expire on December 5, 2009, paving the way for the New START Treaty signed on April 8, 2010, further reducing strategic nuclear arms.[170]	United States, Soviet Union
1991	Prevention case	Intentional		The Nunn–Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program is initiated upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union, when the risk of "loose nukes" prompts a new wave of government, academic, and popular concern about nuclear terrorism. The program provides funding and expertise to partner governments in the former Soviet Union to secure and eliminate weapons of mass destruction at the source.[171][138]
1991	Prevention case	Intentional	Program launch	Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR), is devised by U.S. Senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar, with the purpose to assist Russia and former Soviet states in dismantling and securing their vast nuclear arsenal. Triggered by a Soviet coup attempt in the same year, the initiative addresses concerns about unstable regimes controlling nuclear weapons. As the Soviet Union dissolves, the Nunn-Lugar Act would allocate approximately $400 million annually to eliminate or secure weapons in newly independent nations. By 1997, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine would have transferred their nuclear arsenals to Russia with U.S. assistance. The legislation would successfully oversee the safe movement of nuclear materials to Russia and improved relations between the U.S. and Russia, despite some congressional criticism over economic support for Russia.[172][97]	United States, Russia, ex-Soviet Union members
1991 (December 12)	Prevention case	Intentional	Policy	The Soviet Nuclear Threat Reduction Act of 1991 is enacted by the 102nd United States Congress and signed into law by President George H. W. Bush. This legislation aims to address the changing landscape after the Cold War and authorize measures to reduce the Soviet nuclear threat. It allows for the transfer of Soviet military armaments and ordnances to NATO countries in coordination with the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). The Act also facilitates the Nunn–Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program, providing assistance for the transportation, storage, safeguarding, and destruction of nuclear and other weapons in the Soviet Union and its republics.
1991, 1993	Risk case	Intentional	Attack on nuclear plant	During the First Gulf War, the United States attack the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center and other nuclear targets in Iraq.[123]	Iraq, United States
Early 1990s	Risk case	Intentional	Illicit nuclear trafficking	Many nuclear smugglers are thought to be moving directly from the former Soviet Union to Western Europe by road or rail.[97]	Ex-Soviet Union, Western Europe
1992 (March 9)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	China accedes to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.[173] In the same year, the government announces its commitment to adhere to the guidelines and criteria of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) when engaging in the export of missiles and associated technologies.[174]	China
1992 (May 23)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Lisbon Protocol is signed by representatives of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan that recognize the four states as successors of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and all of them assume obligations of the Soviet Union under the START I treaty. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine sign the Lisbon Protocol committing to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as non-nuclear-weapon states. All three had nuclear weapons when they were Soviet republics.[58]	Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine
1992	Prevention case	Intentional	Policy	The United States Congress passes the Iran-Iraq Arms Nonproliferation Act, prohibiting the transfer of controlled goods or technology that could knowingly and materially contribute to Iran's proliferation of advanced conventional weapons.[175]	Iran, United States
1992 (August 3)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	France accedes to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, becoming the last of the five recognized nuclear-weapon states to do so.[58]	France
1992 (September)	Prevention case	Intentional	Anti-nuclear movement	The World Uranium Hearing is conducted in Salzburg, Austria, marking a pivotal moment in raising awareness about the consequences of uranium mining and nuclear testing. Participants from 27 countries and 25 indigenous nations share testimonies on the devastating effects of nuclear technology. The event leads to the adoption of the "Declaration of Salzburg," urging to "Leave the uranium in the ground!". Despite positive developments since then, such as the submission of the declaration to the UN Human Rights Council, challenges would persist.[176]
1992 (October 23)	Prevention case	Intentional	Policy	The Former Soviet Union Demilitarization Act of 1992 is enacted by the 102nd United States Congress. Also known as the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1993, this federal law aims to coordinate disarmament efforts with the former Soviet Union. The act facilitates armament retooling, chemical demilitarization, and nonproliferation initiatives. It acknowledges the geopolitical changes of the early 1990s, including the collapse of communism, dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the Gulf War. The act's five subtitles provide authority, funding, and logistical support for various programs, such as transportation and destruction of weapons, establishing safeguards against proliferation, and supporting defense industry demilitarization and civilian conversion.
1992	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	The Albert Einstein Peace Prize is awarded to Joseph Rotblat and Hans Bethe for their “wide-ranging efforts on behalf of peace”.[177][178]
1993 (January 3)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	Presidents George H. W. Bush and Boris Yeltsin sign START II (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II), a bilateral agreement between the United States and Russia aimed at limiting and reducing strategic nuclear arms.[179] This treaty prohibits the use of multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Despite being ratified by the US Senate in 1996 and by Russia in 2000, the treaty would never come into effect due to the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002. Instead, the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) would take its place in 2002, setting new reduction targets for strategic nuclear warheads.	United States, Russia
1993	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (nonprofit)	The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) is established as a nonprofit think tank focused on nuclear nonproliferation.[180] Led by founder David Albright, a former United Nations IAEA nuclear inspector, ISIS specializes in analyzing IAEA findings and technical data related to nuclear proliferation programs.[181] The organization's main objectives include preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and technology, enhancing transparency of nuclear activities globally, reinforcing non-proliferation regimes, and reducing nuclear arsenals. ISIS would gain recognition for its technical analyses, particularly regarding nuclear programs in North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, and Syria.[182] The institute would be funded by various organizations and government entities, and its work would be respected in non-proliferation circles and international media.[183]	United States
1993	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	American economist Thomas Schelling is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award "for his pioneering work on the logic of military strategy, nuclear war, and arms races, which has profoundly influenced our understanding of this crucial subject."[168]
1993 (December)	Prevention case	Intentional	International resolution	The UN General Assembly passes resolution 48/75L, advocating for the negotiation of a comprehensive Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) to ban the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons or explosive devices. The Conference on Disarmament would establish a committee in March 1995 to negotiate the treaty, but substantive discussions would have yet to occur. The United States initially opposes including a verification mechanism in the treaty but later shifts its stance. In 2009, President Barack Obama would propose negotiating a verifiable treaty to halt fissile material production. Despite international pressure, Pakistan would block efforts to implement the treaty, citing concerns about its specific targeting.
1994 (January 11)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	Kremlin accords United States President Bill Clinton and President Boris Yeltsin of Russia sign the Kremlin accords, a set of agreements with a the purpose to put an end to the preprogrammed targeting of nuclear weapons at specific targets in any country (known as United States – Russia mutual detargeting). The treaty also includes provisions for the dismantling of Russia's nuclear arsenal that is stationed in Ukraine.	United States, Russia, Ukraine
1994	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	Former President Jimmy Carter and North Korean leader Kim Il Sung reach an agreement known as the U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework. As part of this agreement, North Korea makes a commitment to freeze its plutonium-based weapons program.[184]	North Korea, United States
1994	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (nonprofit)	The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) is established with the purpose to enhance understanding of strategic weapons proliferation. The center plans to challenge prevailing views on the advantages and drawbacks of East Asian nations expanding their use of civilian and military nuclear energy. By convening experts from security, nonproliferation, and energy sectors, the project seeks to evaluate the genuine opportunities and risks linked to extensive government backing of nuclear power, including fuel cycle closure.[185][186]	United States
1994	Prevention case	Intentional	Intelligence operation	Covert operation Project Sapphire is conducted as a covert operation involving the United States, Kazakhstan, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to transport 600 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (HEU) from Kazakhstan to the U.S. amid concerns about loose fissile material in the former Soviet states. Implemented under the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program, the project aims to prevent nuclear material from falling into the wrong hands. Successfully moving the HEU from Kazakhstan's Ulba Metallurgical Plant to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the operation would turn into a crucial validation of the CTR program in securing nuclear materials and preventing potential proliferation risks.[187]	United States
1995 (January 25)				The Norwegian rocket incident occurs when a Norwegian-U.S. scientific weather rocket is mistaken by Russian radar operators for a nuclear attack.[188] Russian President Boris Yeltsin is prompted to activate his nuclear briefcase to contemplate launching in retaliation.[189]	Russia
1995 (April 11)	Prevention case	Intentional	International resolution	The United Nations Security Council adopts Resolution 984 at its 3,514th meeting. Titled "Security Council Resolution 984 (1995)," it aims to provide security assurances against the use of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear-weapon states that are parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The resolution marks a historic moment as the permanent members of the Security Council, possessing nuclear weapons, committed to not using them against non-nuclear states unless in the case of an attack. It emphasizes efforts to prevent nuclear war, promote peaceful nuclear cooperation, and recognized the right to self-defense.[58][190]
1995	Risk case	Intentional	Illicit nuclear trafficking	Customs officials catch a man trying to smuggle highly enriched uranium through a land checkpoint in Bulgaria.[97]	Bulgaria
1995 (November)	Prevention case	Intentional	Anti-nuclear movement	The Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons is established by the Australian Government. It advocates for practical steps toward a world without nuclear weapons, addressing the challenges of stability and security during and after this transition. The commission emphasizes the catastrophic consequences of nuclear weapons use and asserts that these arms pose an intolerable threat to humanity. It condemns the current situation where a few states possess nuclear weapons, urging major nuclear powers – the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China – to commit unequivocally to eliminating all nuclear weapons. The commission proposes immediate measures and a verifiable elimination process, emphasizing the need for global political commitment and a binding legal framework to achieve a nuclear-free world.[191]	Australia
1995 (December 5)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	Ukraine accedes to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.[58]	Ukraine
1995 (December 15)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	Member states of ASEAN sign the Treaty of Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ Treaty, also Bangkok Treaty) as a commitment to preserve the Southeast Asian region as a region free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.[192]	ASEAN
1996 (April 12)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, also known as the Treaty of Pelindaba, is signed in Cairo, Egypt. This treaty establishes a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Africa, prohibiting the development, testing, possession, and deployment of nuclear weapons within the territory of its parties. The treaty would come into effect on July 15, 2009, after the 28th ratification. It aims to ensure peaceful nuclear activities in Africa, while also establishing mechanisms for compliance verification. The treaty covers the entire African continent and several islands, with the goal of promoting regional security and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons.[193]
1996 (July 8)	Prevention case	Intentional	Notable publication	The International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivers its Advisory opinion on the Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons. The opinion states that while there is no explicit authorization or comprehensive prohibition of nuclear weapons' threat or use, it concludes that such actions would generally be contrary to international humanitarian law. The opinion notes that legality might vary in extreme circumstances of self-defense, where a state's survival is at stake. The Court emphasizes that nuclear disarmament is an obligation.[194] The opinion is in response to a request from the United Nations General Assembly, addressing issues related to the legality of nuclear weapons' threat or use under international law.[195]
1996 (July)	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (international)	The Wassenaar Arrangement is formally established as a Multilateral export control regime with (MECR) with 41 participating states that promotes transparency of national export control regimes on conventional arms and dual-use goods and technologies.[196][197] It is the successor to the Coordinating Committee on Multilateral Export Control (COCOM), which coordinated western restrictions on trade with communist states during the Cold War.[198] In December 2013, the list of export restricted technologies would be amended to include internet-based surveillance systems.[199]
1996 (September 24)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty is signed. Since then, it would become one of the most adhered to arms control instruments in the world. The Treaty bans all nuclear explosions in any environment. As of 2017, 183 countries would have signed the CTBT, with 166 of these having set their commitment to that principal in stone through ratification.[122]:167 "The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty outlawing nuclear explosions is opened for signature. The treaty has yet to enter into force because not all of the requisite states, including China, India, Pakistan, and the United States, have ratified it."[58]
1997 (January)	Prevention case	Non-intentional	Organization (international)	The International Nuclear Regulators' Association (INRA) is established.[200] This association comprises senior officials from nuclear regulatory authorities in countries such as Canada, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, among others. The INRA aims to bolster and advance global nuclear safety by leveraging the regulatory expertise of its members. It collaborates to influence and improve nuclear safety regulations both within its membership and on a worldwide scale. This association operates in conjunction with other international nuclear organizations like the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Energy Agency.
1997 (May 15)	Prevention case	Intentional	Policy	The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) adopts the Model Additional Protocol, an optional safeguards agreement enabling the agency to enhance its verification capabilities and ensure no unauthorized nuclear weapons activities within a state. This protocol emerges as a response to Iraq and North Korea violating the nuclear treaty. On May 11 and 13, 1998, India conducts its second nuclear test.[58]	Member states of the International Atomic Energy Agency
1997	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	Alexander L. George is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award "for combining theory with history to elucidate the requirements of deterrence, the limits to coercive diplomacy, and the relationship between force and statecraft."[168]
1998 (January)	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (international)	The United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) is established with the mission to achieve global disarmament under strict international control. Focusing on weapons of mass destruction, particularly nuclear weapons, UNODA addresses their humanitarian impact alongside major conventional and emerging weapon technologies. It supports norm-setting through UN bodies, encouraging dialogue, transparency, and confidence-building. UNODA provides information to member states, international organizations, research institutions, civil society, and the media, fostering awareness on disarmament issues. Additionally, it assists in post-conflict disarmament, aiding former combatants' reintegration into society, embodying a comprehensive approach toward disarmament and peacebuilding efforts.[201]
1998 (May 28)	Prevention case	Intentional	Nuclear test	Pakistan, a nonsignatory to the NPT but a non-nuclear-weapon state by the treaty’s terms, conducts its first set of nuclear test explosions.[58]	Pakistan
1998 (June 30)	Risk case	Intentional	Cyberattack	Hacktivist group milw0rm gains international attention by infiltrating India's primary nuclear research facility, the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Mumbai. During the attack, they compromise the site and replace its content with a spoofed web page featuring an image of a mushroom cloud, along with the threatening message: "If a nuclear war does start, you will be the first to scream." This cyberattack highlights the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, particularly in the context of nuclear research facilities, and the potential for hackers to use digital means to convey political or ideological messages with significant global implications.[202]	India
1998 (June)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The New Agenda Coalition (NAC) is formed by Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, and South Africa, aiming to promote global nuclear disarmament as mandated by the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The coalition emerges due to dissatisfaction with the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation discussions within the NPT framework. They officially launched in Dublin with a Joint Declaration, advocating for the elimination of nuclear weapons. In 2000, the NAC would play a pivotal role in crafting the 13 Steps agreement during the NPT Review Conference, emphasizing the need for nuclear disarmament independent of general disarmament and outlining practical steps for achieving it.[203][58]	Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa
2000 (February 2)	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (national)	The Strategic Plans Division Force (SPD Force) is formed. It is a paramilitary organization in Pakistan established as part of the National Command Authority. It is responsible for safeguarding nuclear materials and providing security for Pakistan's tactical and strategic nuclear weapons stockpile. Led by Lieutenant-General Yusuf Jamal, it has around 60,000 personnel. The force is heavily armed to defend against potential threats to nuclear material-holding sites. SPD Force initially relied on Pakistan's Armed Forces for manpower but began hiring and training its own personnel at the Pakistan Centre of Excellence for Nuclear Security (PCENS). It also includes the Special Response Force (SRF), a special forces unit.[204]	Pakistan
2000 (May 22)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	States party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) holds a review conference at the United Nations in New York. Despite concerns of disarray, the parties achieve consensus on a historic third document in the treaty's history. Initial fears of conference breakdown are fueled by slow progress in disarmament, unmet objectives set in 1995, and criticism from non-nuclear-weapon states, particularly aimed at the United States. Surprisingly, the conference concludes with a robust document, featuring stronger language on nuclear disarmament and universal adherence than ever before, marking an unexpected diplomatic success and highlighting key points of agreement and compromise.[205]
2000	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (national)	The National Nuclear Security Administration is established by the United States Congress.[206]	United States
2000	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA) is signed, committing the US and Russia to dispose of at least 34 metric tons of weapon-grade plutonium. A subsequent Plutonium Disposition Protocol, signed in 2010, ensures irreversible arms reductions by transparently disposing of this plutonium in civil power reactors, preventing its reuse for military purposes. The 2010 Protocol would update the PMDA, addressing financial viability issues in Russia's nuclear energy strategy.[207]	Russia, United States
2000	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	Philip E. Tetlock is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award "for successfully developing a semantic measure of cognitive complexity predictive of foreign policy decisions and for applying psychological analysis and knowledge to nuclear policy problems."[168]
2001	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Organization (international)	The World Nuclear Association is established[208] as an international organization promoting nuclear power and supporting companies within the global nuclear industry. Its membership encompasses all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle, from uranium mining to electricity generation. Responsible for 70% of the world's nuclear power and a significant portion of uranium production, the Association's mission includes facilitating technical, commercial, and policy interactions among members, as well as promoting public understanding of nuclear technology. The Association also emphasizes its commitment to nuclear disarmament and operates with a Charter of Ethics. Its activities involve industry interaction, meetings, representation at international forums, and public information dissemination through various channels.
2001			Organization	The Nuclear Threat Initiative is formed.[209] It is a nonprofit, nonpartisan global security organization focused on reducing nuclear and biological threats.[210]
2002 (May 24)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty is signed as a treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation.[211] Añso known as the Moscow Treaty, it mandates that the United States and Russia reduce their strategic nuclear weapons to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads by December 31, 2012. The treaty would enter into force on June 1, 2003, and lapse on February 5, 2011, when the New START Treaty enters into force.[212]	United States, Russia
2002 (November)	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (international)	The International Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (also known as the Hague Code of Conduct (HCOC)) is established as an arrangement to prevent the proliferation of ballistic missiles.[213]
2003 (January 11)	Risk case	Intentional	Diplomacy (setback)	North Korea announces its withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.[214] Not all states, however, recognize the legality of this withdrawal from the treaty.[175]	North Korea
2003 (May)	Prevention case	Intentional	Anti-nuclear movement	The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) is launched as a global effort aimed at preventing the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), their delivery systems, and related materials to and from states and non-state actors of proliferation concern. PSI participants commit to interdicting transfers, exchanging information, strengthening legal authorities, and supporting interdiction efforts. The initiative addresses concerns about WMD falling into the hands of terrorists and emphasizes flexibility, voluntary cooperation, and collective action. The United States actively supports PSI, contributing various resources and expertise to enhance partner nations' capabilities and combat WMD proliferation effectively.[215]
2003	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Organization (nonprofit)	The Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) is established as a program under the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) with the purpose to train nuclear professionals. In response to evolving global security dynamics, PONI focuses on outreach, mentorship, research, and debate. The project addresses the evolving landscape of global security, particularly in the realm of nuclear weapons.[216]	United States
2003 (December 19)	Prevention case	Intentional	Nuclear program shutdown	Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi makes the decision to decommission his country's nuclear weapons program. This decision comes after years of negotiations and international pressure. As part of this process, Libya agrees to dismantle its nuclear weapons program and to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to verify and monitor the disarmament. In exchange for this action, Libya received sanctions relief and an opportunity to re-engage with the international community. This move was seen as a significant step towards non-proliferation efforts and regional stability.[76][58]	Lybia
2003	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	Walter Enders and Todd Sandler are awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award for their joint work on transnational terrorism using game theory and time series analysis to document the cyclic and shifting nature of terrorist attacks in response to defensive counteractions." [168]
2004 (January)	Risk case	Intentional	Illicit nuclear trafficking	Pakistani nuclear physicist Abdul Qadeer Khan, a key figure in Pakistan's nuclear program, confesses to transferring nuclear technology to Libya, Iran, and North Korea. This disclosure exposes a clandestine network engaged in illegal nuclear technology trade. The network, commonly known as the "Khan" network, is international and non-hierarchical, involving individuals and companies worldwide. It aims to provide turn-key gas centrifuge facilities, especially to Libya. The network's audacious plans includes supplying 10,000 centrifuges, detailed project designs, and even information for building nuclear weapons. The revelation underscores flaws in global nonproliferation efforts, prompting calls for improved export controls and safeguards.[217]	Pakistan, Libya, Iran, North Korea
2004 (April 24)	Prevention case	Intentional	International resolution	The United Nations Security Council adopts Resolution 1540 to address the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).[218] This resolution imposes obligations under Chapter VII of the UN Charter for all member states to enact legal and regulatory measures against the proliferation of nuclear, chemical, biological, and radiological weapons, as well as their means of delivery. Notably, it recognizes the threat posed by non-state actors and obliges states to modify their internal legislation accordingly. The resolution establishes the 1540 Committee to oversee its implementation, emphasizing collaboration and participation rather than sanctions enforcement.[219] It marks a departure from previous nonproliferation arrangements by imposing universal and mandatory obligations.
2005 (April 1)	Prevention case	Non-intentional	Organization (national)	The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) is established as a Non-Departmental Public Body (NDPB) under the Energy Act (2004) to oversee the safe, secure, cost-effective decommissioning and cleanup of the UK's nuclear legacy sites, with a focus on protecting people and the environment. Mandated by the Energy Act, the NDA is required to review its Strategy at least every 5 years. The current consultation outcome reflects the NDA's updated Strategy, outlining its strategic direction and long-term objectives in managing nuclear decommissioning efforts.[220]	United Kingdom
2005 (April 15)	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Organization (national)	The Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) is established[221] by the United States to enhance the nation's capability to detect and respond to unauthorized attempts involving nuclear or radiological material.[222] It coordinates federal efforts against nuclear and radiological terrorism, developing the global nuclear detection architecture strategy. DNDO conducts research, testing, and evaluation of detection technologies, acquires necessary systems, and provides threat assessments, technical support, and training. Criticized for unsuccessful programs like the Advanced Spectroscopic Portal Monitor and Cargo Advanced Automated Radiography System, DNDO would face accusations of mismanagement and misleading Congress. In December 2017, it would become part of the Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction office.[223]	United States
2005	Risk case	Intentional	Policy	The Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations is discovered. It outlines conditions under which U.S. commanders can request the use of nuclear weapons. It is revised to align with the preemptive attack principles of the Bush doctrine. Eight scenarios are cited for requesting nuclear weapon use, including countering WMD threats, preventing biological attacks, striking enemy WMD facilities, halting overwhelming conventional enemy forces, ending a war favorably, ensuring the success of U.S. and international operations, deterring WMD use, and responding to enemy-supplied WMD. The doctrine stresses the integration of conventional and nuclear attacks for efficient force use but acknowledged the serious consequences of nuclear weapon use. In 2010, President Barack Obama would announce a stricter nuclear strike policy in a Nuclear Posture Review.[224]	United States
2005 (July 18)	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Binational cooperation	U.S. President George W. Bush and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sign the India–United States Civil Nuclear Agreement.[225] This agreement, also known as the 123 Agreement, aims to enhance nuclear cooperation between the two nations. India agrees to separate its civil and military nuclear facilities and place its civil nuclear facilities under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. In return, the U.S. agrees to facilitate civil nuclear cooperation with India.[226] The agreement encounters political and diplomatic challenges due to India's non-membership in the NPT. After several stages of negotiation, including changes to U.S. domestic law and international safeguards agreements, the deal is approved and hailed as a landmark in U.S.-India relations.[227]	India, United States
2005 (September 14)	Prevention case	Intentional (terrorist)	Diplomacy	The International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism is signed. Later called Nuclear Terrorism Convention, it originates from a proposal by the Russian Federation to address gaps in countering nuclear terrorism beyond the 1980 Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM). The convention defines nuclear terrorism as the use or threat to use nuclear materials, installations, or devices for harmful purposes and obligates parties to cooperate in preventing and prosecuting such acts. Despite concerns, including issues related to the use of nuclear weapons, the convention becomes the first anti-terrorism treaty adopted since the 9/11 attacks, strengthening the international legal framework against terrorist acts. It would enter into force on July 7, 2007.[228][229]
2005 (September 19)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	North Korea commits to abandoning its nuclear weapons and programs and returning to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and to the International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards in an agreement of the six-party talks on North Korean denuclearization.[58]	North Korea
2006 (February)	Risk case	Intentional	Illicit nuclear trafficking	Oleg Khinsagov, a Russian national, is apprehended in Georgia, accompanied by three Georgian accomplices. They are found in possession of 79.5 grams of highly enriched uranium (HEU) with a concentration of 89 percent. This incident would raise concerns about the illicit trafficking of nuclear materials and the potential risks associated with the unauthorized possession of such dangerous substances.[230]	Georgia, Russia
2006 (April 11)	Risk case	Intentional	International resolution	Iran declares its first successful enrichment of uranium to about 3.5 percent at the Natanz plant. On June 6, 2006, the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, UK, US) proposes an offer to Iran, aiming to halt its enrichment efforts. The UN Security Council on July 31, 2006, adopts Resolution 1696, making the IAEA's demands for Iran's suspension of enrichment legally binding. In August, Iran responds to the P5+1 proposal with reservations. By December 23, 2006, the Security Council enforces Resolution 1737, imposing sanctions on Iran for its refusal to halt enrichment, prohibiting technology transfers, and freezing assets of organizations and individuals linked to Iran's nuclear and missile programs.[175]	Iran
2006 (June 13)	Prevention case	Non-intentional	Organization (national)	The Autorité de sûreté nucléaire (ASN), or Nuclear Safety Authority, is established in France through law 2006-686.[231] It replaces the General Direction for Nuclear Safety and Radioprotection. The ASN is an independent administrative authority responsible for regulating nuclear safety and radiation protection. Its role is to ensure the safety of nuclear activities and protect workers, the public, patients, and the environment from associated risks. It also contributes to public information. The ASN would gain international attention during the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster and would face challenges related to nuclear safety issues and steel quality concerns.
2006	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	A significant milestone in Central Asia is achieved with the Treaty of Semipalatinsk, following nine years of negotiations. The treaty is facilitated by the independence gained by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, after the USSR's collapse, which formerly controlled the region. Previously, the USSR extensively used the area for various nuclear-related activities, such as testing, missile trials, nuclear fuel processing, and weapon stockpiling. The establishment of the treaty zone becomes even more notable, given the region's history of hosting over 700 tactical nuclear weapons and returning over 1,400 former Soviet strategic nuclear weapons to Russia before Kazakhstan joined the NPT in 1995.[232]	Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
2006	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (international)	The International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM) is established, consisting of nuclear experts from 17 countries including the United States, Russia, and China.[233] The panel's primary goal is to promote international efforts in securing and reducing stocks of highly enriched uranium and plutonium, essential materials for nuclear weapons, while limiting their further production.[234] Co-chaired by experts from Princeton University and Nagasaki University, the IPFM produces an annual Global Fissile Material Report detailing global stocks and production of fissile materials. The panel contributes to nuclear non-proliferation efforts by providing valuable information and analysis on fissile materials.[235][234]
2006 (June 1)			Literature	The Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, chaired by Dr. Hans Blix, publishes Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological And Chemical Arms In this report, which presents 60 recommendations on what the world community can and should do to avoid nuclear war.[236]	United States
2006 (July 16)	Prevention case	Intentional (terrorist)	Diplomacy	Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin jointly announce the organization of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT). This international organization, co-chaired by the United States and Russia, involves 89 countries committed to nuclear security principles against terrorism. GICNT's goals include preventing terrorist acquisition of nuclear materials, strengthening security at nuclear facilities, detecting and preventing illicit trafficking of radioactive substances, and ensuring proper response and investigation in case of nuclear terrorism incidents. The initiative promotes cooperation, information sharing, and the development of legal frameworks. GICNT would evolve over the years, adding key coordinators, endorsing countries, and contributing to global efforts against nuclear terrorism.[237]	United States, Russia
2006 (September 8)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (CANWFZ) treaty is signed by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It prohibits the manufacture, acquisition, testing, and possession of nuclear weapons. Ratified by all five states, it would become effective on March 21, 2009. The zone aims to enhance regional security, address environmental concerns, and promote stability and development. Verification is conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency, with commitments to safeguards and nuclear protection standards. Notably, CANWFZ is the only zone bordered by nuclear-weapon states and where nuclear weapons were deployed in the past. The idea originated in a 1997 conference, and the Semipalatinsk Test Site in Kazakhstan serves as the signing location.[238]	Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
2006 (October 9)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear test	North Korea conducts its first nuclear test with an estimated yield of about one kiloton.[184]	North Korea
2006 (November 1)	Adverse consequence	Intentional	High-profile assassination	Former Russian intelligence officer Alexander Litvinenko falls critically ill after meeting with two ex-KGB officers, Andrey Lugovoy and Dmitry Kovtun, in London. Litvinenko had accused the Russian government of orchestrating his persecution due to his revelations about the FSB's alleged involvement in various incidents, including bombings and assassinations. He had also exposed the connections between the Russian mafia in Europe and the government. His illness worsens, and he is hospitalized, eventually dying on November 23. His death is attributed to being the first confirmed case of lethal polonium-210-induced acute radiation syndrome. Litvinenko's public accusations against Putin would lead to global media coverage and diplomatic tensions between the UK and Russia.[239][240][241][242]	United Kingdom, Russia
2006	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	American political scientist Robert Jervis is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award "for showing, scientifically and in policy terms, how cognitive psychology, politically contextualized, can illuminate strategies for the avoidance of nuclear war."[168]
2007 (January 15)	Prevention?	Intentional (state terrorism)	High-profile assassination	Ardeshir Hosseinpour, an Iranian professor and authority on electromagnetism, becomes the first victim of a series of targeted killings against the country's nuclear scientists. He is killed either through gas poisoning or exposure to radiation, in the city of Shiraz. The same or similar fate would happen to Masoud Ali Mohammadi (killed in 2010), Majid Shahriari (killed in 2010), Fereydoun Abbasi (wounded in 2010), Darioush Rezaeinejad (killed in 2011), Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan (killed in 2012), and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (killed in 2020). In almost all cases, Iran would attribute the attacks to Israel and/or the United States. The motivations behind these targeted killings would be often linked to Iran's nuclear program, and the deaths would heighten tensions between Iran and the implicated countries. Israel would typically neither confirm nor deny involvement, while U.S. officials would deny any role in the assassinations.[243]	Iran, Israel
2007			Research	Members of the original group of nuclear winter scientists collectively perform a new comprehensive quantitative assessment utilizing the latest computer and climate models. They conclude that even a small-scale, regional nuclear war could kill as many people as died in all of World War II and seriously disrupt the global climate for a decade or more, harming nearly everyone on Earth.[138]
2007	Risk case	Intentional (terrorist)	Attack on nuclear plant	An armed attack on the Pelindaba nuclear facility in South Africa occurs when four armed men break in and head towards a control room in the eastern block, and manage to deactivate several layers of security, including a 10,000-volt electrical fence, suggesting insider knowledge of the system.[244][245] This incident highlights that even single points have security weaknesses and can be subject to concerted attacks.[97]	South Africa
2007	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (international)	The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) is launched as a global coalition with a mission to eliminate nuclear weapons through the enactment of international laws banning them. ICAN would play a pivotal role in the United Nations' Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and would be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017. Formed from the initiative of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, ICAN would grow to include over 450 partner organizations across 100 countries. It focuses on raising awareness, conducting research on the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons, and advocating for international legislation against them, ultimately aiming to stigmatize, prohibit, and eliminate these weapons.[246]
2007 (September)	Prevention case	Intentional	Attack on nuclear plant	Israeli aircraft destroys Syria's al-Kibar reactor, a secret facility supplied by North Korea for plutonium production. The attack occurs just as the reactor was nearing operational status.[123][97]	Israel, Syria, North Korea
2008	Prevention case	Comprehensive	Organization (international)	The World Institute for Nuclear Security (WINS) is established as an international non-governmental organization based in Vienna, Austria. Its mission is to promote best security practices among those responsible for managing the security of radioactive material. WINS provides a variety of services, including workshops, training courses, and round-table discussions worldwide, focusing on nuclear security management at the operational level. The organization offers the WINS Academy, the world's first international certification program for nuclear security management. It also publishes numerous documents on nuclear material management in its Knowledge Centre and offers evaluation services to help organizations assess their security programs' effectiveness.[247]
2008	Prevention case	Intentional	Literature	Michael Dobbs publishes One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War, which describes what Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. called “the most dangerous moment in human history”.[248]
2008 (July 9)	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (binational)	The International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND) is established as a collaborative effort between the Australian and Japanese governments. Proposed by Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and agreed upon by Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, the Commission aims to address nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament challenges. ICNND aims to reinvigorate global efforts on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. The commission's report, Eliminating Nuclear Threats - A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers, launched on December 15, 2009, seeks to guide policymakers. The ICNND actively uses social networks to spread information about non-proliferation, emphasizing the importance of global awareness and support for de-escalation of nuclear threats.[249]	Australia, Japan
2008	December	Intentional	Organization (international)	Global Zero, a non-partisan international initiative, is launched by 100 opinion leaders in Paris. The organization aims to raise awareness about the urgent nuclear threat and advocate for the complete elimination of all nuclear weapons. Over its first 21 months, Global Zero would gather support from 300 political, military, business, and civic leaders, along with 400,000 citizens worldwide. They would develop the Global Zero Action Plan (GZAP) outlining a step-by-step process for nuclear disarmament and established 70 student chapters globally. Global Zero would organize international conferences, engage with governments, produce educational films, and garner celebrity support, becoming a prominent advocate for nuclear disarmament on the global stage.[250]
2009 (May 15)	Prevention case	Non-intentional	Binational cooperation	The France–Pakistan Atomic Energy Framework is signed as a bilateral treaty focusing on nuclear energy cooperation.[251][252] This agreement, distinct from the Indo-American nuclear deal, aims to enhance nuclear safety and technology in Pakistan. France agrees to assist in improving the safety of Pakistan's nuclear power installations under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, and to provide civilian-based nuclear technology.[251][253] However, it differs from the Indo-US deal and focuses solely on "nuclear safety," as highlighted by the French Foreign Ministry.[254] This framework marks a departure from France's prior nuclear cooperation with Pakistan, which faced international scrutiny due to concerns about proliferation.[255][251]	France, Pakistan
2009 (September 24)	Prevention case	Intentional	International resolution	The United Nations Security Council Resolution 1887 is adopted unanimously by the Security Council on nuclear issues.[58]
2009 (October)	Prevention case	Intentional	Organization (national)	The Top Level Group (TLG) of UK Parliamentarians for Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation is established in response to the increasing global focus on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. Inspired by influential figures like Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, William Perry, and Senator Sam Nunn, as well as U.S. President Barack Obama's Prague speech in April 2009, the TLG comprises senior British parliamentarians who advocate for multilateral nuclear disarmament and security. The group emphasizes the importance of incremental steps while maintaining national and international security. Its members, prominent and experienced in politics, collaborate to influence UK government policies, support the ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) by the US, and advocate for the agreement of a Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty (FMCT). They engage in public and private events, meet with key decision-makers, and coordinate efforts with counterparts across Europe through the European Leadership Network.[256]	United Kingdom
2010 (April 8)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) is signed between the United States and the Russian Federation in Prague. This treaty, also known as Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, would enter into force on February 5, 2011, following ratification by both parties. New START succeeds the Treaty of Moscow (SORT) and aims to reduce the number of strategic nuclear missile launchers, limit deployed warheads, and establish a new inspection and verification regime. However, on February 21, 2023, Russia would suspend its participation in New START, although it would not withdraw from the treaty.[257]	United States, Russia
2010 (April 12–13)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The United States hosts the inaugural Nuclear Security Summit, convening 49 world leaders to enhance global cooperation and consensus towards nuclear security and disarmament. Despite underlying controversies, the summit produces a broad Communiqué committing to preventing nuclear terrorism and adopting a four-year timeline. Nations also agree on a voluntary Work Plan. The summit follows the New START Treaty and U.S. Nuclear Posture Review, signaling the U.S. commitment to nuclear security. The issue brief explores the summit's background, outcomes, and its ongoing significance in reinforcing international dedication to nuclear security amidst preparations for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty's 2010 Review Conference.[258]
2010 (April 17–18)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	Iran hosts the Tehran International Conference on Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, which brings together senior leaders and officials from over 50 countries to discuss approaches to non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach to the three pillars of the NPT: non-proliferation, disarmament, and peaceful uses of atomic energy. Discussions include Russia's nuclear disarmament efforts and the Treaty on Measures to Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. Ryabkov engages with Iranian and Chinese officials on issues related to Iran's nuclear program and preparations for the NPT Review Conference.[259]	Iran, Russia, China
2010 (May 3–28)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The 2010 NPT Review Conference for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) takes place at the United Nations Headquarters in New York City. Ambassador Libran N. Cabactulan of the Philippines presides over the conference.[260][261] The event aims to address various issues, including nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation, peaceful use of nuclear energy, regional disarmament, and engagement with civil society. The NPT, in force since 1970, promotes nuclear disarmament and peaceful nuclear technology. Despite previous conferences' challenges, the 2010 Review Conference seeks to strengthen the treaty's implementation and foster international cooperation, coinciding with other events like the New START treaty signing and nuclear security summit.[262]
2010 (June)	Prevention case	Intentional	International resolution	A series of significant international sanctions are imposed on Iran. The United Nations Security Council passes Resolution 1929, which expands sanctions by prohibiting Iran from conducting nuclear-capable ballistic missile tests, imposing an arms embargo on major weapon transfers to Iran, and tightening proliferation-related sanctions. On June 24, the U.S. Congress adopts the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act, extending sanctions against firms investing in Iran's energy sector until 2016 and targeting companies selling refined petroleum to Iran. Subsequently, on July 26, the European Union also agrees to impose comprehensive sanctions on Iran, covering trade, financial services, energy, transport, and more, alongside visa bans and asset freezes.[175]	Iran
2010 (September 16)	Risk case	Intentional	Cyberattack	The malicious computer worm Stuxnet computer virus is first identified by a security expert as a directed attack against an Iranian nuclear-related facility, likely to be an enrichment plant in Natanz.[175] Although neither country would openly admit responsibility, the worm is widely understood to be a cyberweapon built jointly by the United States and Israel in a collaborative effort known as Operation Olympic Games.[263][264][265]	Iran
2011 (March)	Adverse consequence	Non-intentional	Nuclear accident	The Fukushima nuclear accident occurs as the second-worst nuclear accident in history after the Chernobyl disaster, resulted from damage to backup generators caused by a tsunami following the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami. Despite successful reactor shutdowns, the loss of power leads to cooling system failures, causing partial meltdowns in reactors 1, 2, and 3. Explosions release radiation, prompting evacuations and a no-fly zone. Ongoing efforts to cool the reactors face challenges. The incident escalates to a level-7 nuclear emergency, paralleling Chernobyl. Evacuation zones expand due to radiation concerns, and the region would face long-term uninhabitability. Later, some restrictions would be lifted, but challenges would persist, including a 2013 leak.[266]	Japan
2011 (April 20)	Prevention case	Intentional (terrorist)	International resolution	The United Nations Security Council passes Resolution 1977 (UNSCR 1977), reinforcing international measures against weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation. The resolution extends the mandate of a key Committee established by UNSC Resolution 1540, emphasizing the commitment to preventing WMD spread. UNSCR 1977 urges member states to designate a Point of Contact for 1540 implementation. Since 2004, UNSCR 1540 obligates states to enact effective measures against WMD proliferation. The Committee, with a new ten-year mandate, collaborates globally and is supported by a Group of Experts. The resolution encourages partnerships with regional organizations and recognizes the importance of voluntary contributions.[267]
2011	Prevention case	Non-intentional	Organization (national)	The Office for Nuclear Regulation is established.[268] It is the UK's independent nuclear regulator, with the mission to protect society by securing safe nuclear operations.[269]	United Kingdom
2012 (March 26–27)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The 2012 Nuclear Security Summit is held in Seoul. It expands upon the Washington Summit, inviting six new countries: Azerbaijan, Denmark, Gabon, Hungary, Lithuania, and Romania. The summit, attended by 53 countries and 4 international organizations, focuses on combating nuclear terrorism, protecting nuclear materials and facilities, and preventing illicit trafficking of nuclear materials. The Seoul Communiqué identifies 11 priority areas, including minimizing highly enriched uranium use, ratifying the 2005 Amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material, improving nuclear safety and security synergy, securing spent nuclear fuel, and protecting radioactive sources. The summit introduces 'gift baskets,' resulting in over 100 new commitments for nuclear security.[270]
2012 (November)	Risk case	Intentional	Illicit nuclear trafficking	South Korea reportedly stops North Korea attempting to sell graphite rods to Syria, which are believed to be intended for use in Syria's nuclear program. The sale does not go through, as South Korea intercepts the shipment and prevents it from reaching Syria.[184][271]	North Korea, Syria, South Korea
2012	Prevention case	Intentional	Literature	M.A. Harwell publishes Nuclear Winter: The Human and Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War, which argues that comparatively little scientific research has been done about the envifonmental consequences of a nuclear war of the magnitude of the arsenal at the time could unleash.[272]
2012	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	Robert Powell is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award "for sophisticated game theoretic models of conflict that illuminate the heart of the strategic dilemmas of nuclear deterrence, including the importance of private information."[168]
2014 (July)	Risk case	Intentional	Attack on nuclear plant	Sunni Islamist political and military organization Hamas launches unsuccessful rocket attacks against Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center.[123]	Israel
2014			Research	A study finds that even a regional nuclear war, involving fewer than a hundred weapons being detonated, could cause a global nuclear famine.[76][273]
2015 (July 14)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal or Iran deal) is agreed upon in Vienna, between Iran and the P5+1 group (China, France, Russia, UK, US, plus Germany) and the European Union. Iran agrees to restrict its nuclear program and allow strict monitoring to prevent weapon development. In return, the US and other parties lift sanctions on Iran's economy. However, in 2018, US President Donald J. Trump would withdraw from the deal and re-impose sanctions, citing concerns. The JCPOA aims to limit Iran's enrichment program in exchange for sanctions relief and international oversight. The withdrawal would lead to tensions and uncertainties about the agreement's future.[76]	Iran, China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, Germany
2016 (March 31–April 1)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The 2016 Nuclear Security Summit takes place in Washington, D.C. This is the fourth summit in a series that began in 2010.[274] Notably absent are leaders from Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Belarus.[275] However, the summit sees significant participation from Asian leaders, including India and Singapore, indicating growing concerns about terrorist threats to nuclear facilities. Various countries make commitments to reduce highly enriched uranium stockpiles, while Japan agrees to ship additional separated plutonium to the U.S. Canada pledges $42 million for nuclear security, and a strengthened nuclear security agreement is approved. This summit would be declared the last of its kind.[276]
2017 (July 7)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is adopted during a United Nations conference held in New York, emerging amid dissatisfaction with the 2015 NPT Review Conference. Effective since January 22, 2021, it prohibits the development, testing, possession, and use of nuclear weapons. As of 2022, the treaty lacks a verification regime, relies on existing safeguards agreements, and allows amendments with a two-thirds majority. The first Meeting of the States Parties in 2022 addressed global concerns, condemning nuclear threats and adopting the "Vienna Declaration."[277][278]
2017	Prevention case	Intentional	Literature	United States military analyst Daniel Ellsberg publishes The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner, attempting to reveal his shocking firsthand account of the Nuclear program of the United States in the 1960s.[279]	United States
2018 (June 12)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	A meeting occurrs between Kim Jong-un and United States President Donald Trump in Singapore, centering on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and enhancing bilateral ties. They ink a shared declaration to create "fresh US-DPRK relations," form a stable and enduring peace structure on the Korean peninsula, and locate POW/MIA remains. Kim also pledges to progress towards complete denuclearization, while Trump vowed security assurances for North Korea.[280][281]	North Korea, United States
2018	Prevention case	Intentional	Recognition of individuals	Etel Solingen is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award "for providing the first systematic analysis in contemporary international relations connecting political economy, globalization, and nuclear choices on the one hand with domestic politics and nuclear behavior on the other."[168]
2018	Prevention case	Intentional	Literature	Mark Wolverton publishes Burning the Sky: Operation Argus and the Untold Story of the Cold War Nuclear Tests in Outer Space.[282]	United States (Abrams Books)
2019 (June)	Risk case	Intentional	Nuclear proliferation	As of date, North Korea is estimated to have 20-30 warheads, and the fissile material for an estimated 30-60 nuclear weapons.[184]	North Korea
2020 (January 23)	Prevention case	Intentional	Probability	The Doomsday Clock moves to 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been in its 73-year history.[283]
2021 (July)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The United States–Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue (SSD) is initiated as a vital effort to curtail the risk of nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia. Prompted by a June 2021 meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, the SSD aims to establish stability that counters arms race dynamics and mitigates crises in which nuclear weapons might be employed. The dialogue encompasses plenary sessions and specialized working groups, addressing nuclear disarmament and cybersecurity of nuclear systems. Notably, the inaugural plenary meeting takes place in Geneva. An extraordinary meeting held in January 2022 discusses missile locations and addressed the Russo-Ukrainian crisis, reinforcing the significance of this strategic dialogue.[284][285]	Russia, United States
2021	Risk case	Intentional	Statistics	As of date, humanity has about 13,410 nuclear weapons, thousands of which are on hair-trigger alert.[286]	Countries with nuclear weapons
2022 (January 3)	Prevention case	Intentional	Diplomacy	The leaders of the five nuclear-weapon states - China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States - gather in Hiroshima and issue a joint statement emphasizing their commitment to preventing nuclear war and avoiding arms races. They emphasize the importance of the 77-year record of non-use of nuclear weapons and expresse concern over Russia's nuclear rhetoric and actions. The leaders call for continued reduction in global nuclear arsenals, upholding the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and transparency in nuclear weapons reporting. They also urge negotiations for a treaty banning fissile material production and emphasize the importance of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). The G7 remain committed to non-proliferation and disarmament education and outreach efforts.[287]	China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, United States

Numerical and visual data

Google Ngram Viewer

The chart below shows Google Ngram Viewer data for Nuclear risk from 1500 to 2019.^[288]

Google trends

The chart below shows Google Trends data for "nuclear risk" (search term), from January 1 2004, to October 2023, when the screenshot was taken. See absolute maximum at the time of the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011, as well as local maximum in March 2022, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.^[289]

Meta information on the timeline

How the timeline was built

Base literature

• The Nuclear Renaissance and International Security, by Adam N. Stulberg and Matthew Fuhrmann.^[97]
• Nuclear Deviance: Stigma Politics and the Rules of the Nonproliferation Gameby Michal Smetana,^[108]
• International Cooperation for Enhancing Nuclear Safety, Security, Safeguards and Non-proliferation–60 Years of IAEA and EURATOM, by Luciano Maiani, Said Abousahl, and Wolfango Plastino.^[122]

The initial version of the timeline was written by Sebastian.

Funding information for this timeline is available.

Feedback and comments

Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:

• FIXME

What the timeline is still missing

• A column for prevention case and risk case
• Category:Nuclear proliferation
• Nuclear and radiation accidents and incidents
• List of civilian nuclear accidents
• Category:Nuclear technology treaties
• Category:Anti–nuclear weapons movement
• Nuclear disarmament
• Category:Nuclear technology treaties
• https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/NPT-Timeline
• Lists of nuclear disasters and radioactive incidents
• https://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2.-Wetherall-Nuclear-Security-Timeline-Handout-INLE-Singapore-Fe....pdf
• Category?: disarmament, nuclear program, nuclear security
• Category:Nuclear weapons policy
• Category:Nuclear terrorism
• Nuclear terrorism
• Nuclear disarmament
• Category:Nuclear safety and security
• Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
• Missile Technology Control Regime
• Multilateral export control regime
• Wassenaar Arrangement
• Category:Anti–nuclear weapons movement
• Nuclear disarmament
• Anti-nuclear movement
• Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
• Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism
• New Agenda Coalition
• Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
• Zangger Committee
• Nuclear War Survival Skills
• Nuclear holocaust

Timeline update strategy

See also

• Timeline of existential risk
• Timeline of nuclear energy
• Timeline of nuclear waste management

External links

References