Difference between revisions of "Talk:Timeline of nuclear risk"
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| 2006 || || || || {{w|Robert Jervis}} is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award For showing, scientifically and in policy terms, how cognitive psychology, politically contextualized, can illuminate strategies for the avoidance of nuclear war." || | | 2006 || || || || {{w|Robert Jervis}} is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award For showing, scientifically and in policy terms, how cognitive psychology, politically contextualized, can illuminate strategies for the avoidance of nuclear war." || | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | 2007 || || Intentional (terrorist) || Literature || {{w|Michael A. Levi}} publishes ''{{w|On Nuclear Terrorism}}'', which delves into the subject of nuclear terrorism, examining the decisions a terrorist leader might make when attempting a nuclear attack. Levi highlights numerous obstacles that such a plot might face, leading to various potential ways it could be thwarted. Professor John Mueller's 2010 book, ''Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism From Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda'', further explores this theme. Michael Levi is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, specializing in energy and environmental issues. || | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 2007 || June || || || The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) publicly reveals the name of Adnan Gulshair el Shukrijumah. He is alleged to be the operations leader involved in developing tactical plans for detonating nuclear bombs in multiple American cities simultaneously. This disclosure raises concerns about the potential nuclear terrorism threat and highlights the importance of counterterrorism efforts to prevent such catastrophic scenarios. || {{w|United States}} | | 2007 || June || || || The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) publicly reveals the name of Adnan Gulshair el Shukrijumah. He is alleged to be the operations leader involved in developing tactical plans for detonating nuclear bombs in multiple American cities simultaneously. This disclosure raises concerns about the potential nuclear terrorism threat and highlights the importance of counterterrorism efforts to prevent such catastrophic scenarios. || {{w|United States}} | ||
Revision as of 21:45, 13 November 2023
Enlarged timeline
| Year | Month and date | Category | Event type | Details | Involved country |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1949 | Nuclear security | Organization | Federal Protective Forces (FPF) are established as paramilitary forces under the United States Department of Energy (DOE) to protect Category I special nuclear material. These forces are officially classified as security police and hold law enforcement status while performing official duties. Equipped and trained to respond to armed adversaries and reacquire stolen nuclear material, they are described as "elite fighting forces" designed to operate in combat environments. FPF's responsibility includes defending DOE sites storing uranium-235, uranium-233, and plutonium-239. They are heavily armed and trained to counter a hypothetical adversary.[1] | United States | |
| 1959 | Comprehensive | Notable case | A reactor in Italy becomes the last nuclear project financed by the World Bank.[2] | Italy | |
| 1960 | General | Notable case | The first Israeli nuclear reactor goes on line, with the second in 1962.[2] | Israel | |
| 1963 | March 21 | Intentional | United States President John F. Kennedy highlights the looming threat of a world where numerous nations, possibly 15 to 25, could possess nuclear weapons by the 1970s. This concern arise following a confidential Department of Defense memo that projects Canada, China, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Sweden, and West Germany as potential nuclear-capable countries within a decade. Kennedy's warning underscores the severe danger and potential hazards associated with nuclear proliferation, emphasizing the urgent need to address the proliferation issue and prevent the widespread access to nuclear weapons.[3] | ||
| 1967 | November | Nuclear power program | "Iran’s first nuclear reactor, the U.S. supplied five-megawatt Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) goes critical. It operates on uranium enriched to about 93 percent (it is converted to run on 20 percent in 1993,) which the United States also supplies."[4] | Iran | |
| 1969 | Comprehensive | The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) is established by faculty and students of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. This nonprofit science advocacy organization, based in the U.S., focuses on critical examination of governmental policies in areas where science and technology hold significance. The UCS addresses environmental and social issues, advocating for solutions through research and policy. It is co-founded by physicist Henry Kendall and would gain recognition for initiatives like the World Scientists' Warning to Humanity. Today, with over 200,000 members, including scientists and citizens, the UCS promotes stances on topics such as nuclear disarmament, climate change, deforestation, and sustainable practices, while actively engaging in policy discussions and raising public awareness. | |||
| 1973 | February 27 | General | Organization | The Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC) is established[5] with aims to promote use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes.[6] BAEC would play a crucial role in promoting peaceful uses of atomic energy and developing nuclear power projects. Initially facing resource limitations, BAEC would expand its research facilities, including the Atomic Energy Research Establishment (AERE) with a research reactor. It would extend its services in nuclear medicine, radiation testing, and mineral extraction. However, concerns would emerge about its preparedness to build and operate nuclear power plants.[7] | Bangladesh |
| 1974 | State program | Program launch | "Shah Reza Pahlavi establishes the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) and announces plans to generate about 23,000 megawatts of energy over 20 years, including the construction of 23 nuclear power plants and the development of a full nuclear fuel cycle."[4] | Iran | |
| 1976 | January 5 | Non-intentional | Nuclear accident | A nuclear incident occurs at Jaslovské Bohunice in Czechoslovakia, due to a malfunction during fuel replacement. A fuel rod is ejected from the reactor into the reactor hall by coolant (CO2).[8] | Czechoslovakia |
| 1979 | "The Iranian Revolution and the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran result in a severing of U.S.-Iranian ties and damages Iran’s relationship with the West. Iranian nuclear projects are halted."[4] | Iran | |||
| 1979 | General | Statistics | Peak of the nuclear power sector’s growth in the world. At this time, there are 233 power reactors being simultaneously under construction, a number that would fall to 120 by 1987.[2] | Worldwide | |
| 1980 | Intentional | Anti-nuclear movement | The Albert Einstein Peace Prize is established by the Albert Einstein Peace Prize Foundation, commemorating the centenary of Albert Einstein's birth and inspired by the Russell-Einstein Manifesto advocating nuclear disarmament. William M. Swartz, a key figure in the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, founds the Foundation with support from Einstein's estate trustees. Prize winners, primarily engaged in nuclear disarmament, receive a $50,000 award. Notable laureates would include Alva Myrdal for her nuclear arms control advocacy, George F. Kennan for reducing US-Soviet tensions, and Mikhail Gorbachev for his role in promoting peace. The prize recognizes individuals for their significant contributions to global peace efforts. | ||
| 1980 | Intentional | Statistics | At this time there are sixty-five nuclear engineering programs in the United States, a number that would be reduced to only thirty-one by 2008.[2][9]. | ||
| 1981 | George F. Kennan is awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize. | ||||
| 1982 | McGeorge Bundy, Robert McNamara, and Gerard C. Smith are awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize. | ||||
| 1983 | Joseph Bernardin is awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize. | ||||
| 1984 | Pierre Trudeau is awarded the Albert Einstein Peace Prize. | ||||
| 1984 | State program | Nuclear cooperation | Iran receives nuclear assistance.[2] | Iran | |
| 1985 | Non-intentional | Organization | The Atomic Energy Licensing Board is established.[10] It is a Malaysian regulatory body directly involved in controlling the radiation safety and activities concerning atomic energy.[11] It operates a radiation detection equipment aimed to support nuclear security training and detection capabilities at major public events in Asia and the Pacific.[12] | Malaysia | |
| 1986 | "Mordechai Vanunu, at the Israeli nuclear facility near Dimona revealed information about the Israeli nuclear weapon program to the British press, confirming widely held notions that Israel had an advanced and secretive nuclear weapons program and stockpile. Israel has never acknowledged or denied having a weapons program, and Vanunu was abducted and smuggled to Israel, where he was tried in camera and convicted of treason and espionage." | Israel | |||
| 1987 | Iran acquires technical schematics for building a P-1 centrifuge from the Abdul Qadeer Khan network.[4] | Iran | |||
| 1990 | Robert Axelrod is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award For his imaginative use of game theory, experimentation, and computer simulation to define and test strategies for confrontation and cooperation and other models of social interaction. | ||||
| 1993 | "Conversion of the TRR is completed by Argentina’s Applied Research Institute. It now runs on fuel enriched to just less than 20 percent, 115 kilograms of which is provided by Argentina; the contract for the conversion was signed in 1987."[4] | ||||
| 1993 | April 1 | Intentional | The International Atomic Energy Agency declares North Korea in noncompliance with its safeguards obligations and refers Pyongyang to the United Nations Security Council.[3] | North Korea | |
| 1993 | "Conversion of the TRR is completed by Argentina’s Applied Research Institute. It now runs on fuel enriched to just less than 20 percent, 115 kilograms of which is provided by Argentina; the contract for the conversion was signed in 1987."[4] | ||||
| 1993 | Thomas C. Schelling is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award for his pioneering work on the logic of military strategy, nuclear war, and arms races, which has profoundly influenced our understanding of this crucial subject. | ||||
| 1995 | May 11 | Diplomacy | States-party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) convene to decide on the treaty's extension. Article X of the NPT mandated this conference 25 years after the treaty's initiation to determine if it would continue indefinitely or for further periods. There was initial uncertainty about the extension's nature. Non-nuclear-weapon states, particularly those from the Nonaligned Movement, were dissatisfied with the slow progress in nuclear disarmament. They feared that an indefinite extension would allow nuclear-armed states to retain their arsenals indefinitely without being held accountable for disarmament. Ultimately, the states-parties agreed to the NPT's indefinite extension despite these concerns.[3] | ||
| 1996 | General | Policy | The World Bank adopts a more official policy proscription against loans for nuclear power plants.[2] | ||
| 1997 | Alexander L. George is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award For combining theory with history to elucidate the requirements of deterrence, the limits to coercive diplomacy, and the relationship between force and statecraft. | ||||
| 2000 | Philip E. Tetlock is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award "For successfully developing a semantic measure of cognitive complexity predictive of foreign policy decisions and for applying psychological analysis and knowledge to nuclear policy problems." | ||||
| 2001 | September 11 | Intentional (terrorist) | Notable case | Al-Qaeda considers flying airplanes into nuclear facilities in the United States as part of the September 11 attacks[13][2] | United States |
| 2002 | August | Intentional | The National Council of Resistance of Iran, the political wing of the terrorist organization Mujahideen-e Khalq (MeK), holds a press conference and declares Iran has built nuclear facilities near Natanz and Arak.[4][14] | Iran | |
| 2003 | June 6 | "The IAEA issues a report detailing Iranian clandestine nuclear activities that Tehran failed to report to the agency, in violation of its safeguards agreement."[3] | |||
| 2003 | August | "In August 2003, in response to North Korea’s withdrawal from the NPT, Russia, China, Japan, the United States, and the two Koreas launched a multilateral diplomatic process, known as the six-party talks.
In September 2005, the six-party talks realized its first major success with the adoption of a joint statement in which North Korea pledged to abandon its nuclear weapons activities and return to the NPT in return for security assurances and energy assistance. In building on the 2005 statement, North Korea took steps such as disabling its plutonium reactor at Yongbyon in 2007 and allowing IAEA inspectors into the country. In return, North Korea received fuel oil. North Korea declared it would no longer be bound by agreements made under the six party talks in April 2009 after a period of increased tensions."[15] | |||
| 2003 | September | "September 12, 2003: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors adopts a resolution calling for Iran to suspend all enrichment – and reprocessing- related activities. The resolution requires Iran to declare all material relevant to its uranium-enrichment program and allow IAEA inspectors to conduct environmental sampling at any location. The resolution requires Iran to meet its conditions by October 31st 2003. Iran agrees to meet IAEA demands by the October 31st deadline. In a deal struck between Iran and European foreign ministers, Iran agrees to suspend its uranium–enrichment activities and ratify an additional protocol requiring Iran to provide an expanded declaration of its nuclear activities and granting the IAEA broader rights of access to sites in the country."[4] | Iran | ||
| 2003 | Walter Enders and Todd Sandler are awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award for their joint work on transnational terrorism using game theory and time series analysis to document the cyclic and shifting nature of terrorist attacks in response to defensive counteractions." | ||||
| 2004 | January | Nuclear espionage | Notable case | Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan confesses to selling restricted technology to Libya, Iran, and North Korea. | |
| 2004 | Intentional | Charles D. Ferguson, William C. Potter, and Amy Sands publish The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism, which delves into the subject of nuclear terrorism. It explores various dimensions and potential scenarios related to nuclear terrorism, offering insights into the multifaceted nature of this global security concern. With 376 pages, the book provides an in-depth examination of the challenges, risks, and potential consequences associated with the threat of nuclear terrorism. The authors discuss these aspects within the context of international security and nuclear proliferation. | |||
| 2004 | "nuclear terrorism expert Graham Allison bet some of his colleagues that terrorists would explode a nuclear bomb somewhere in the world by 2014. As he wrote afterward, “I was happy to lose those bets.”"[16][17] | ||||
| 2005 | February 27 | "Russia and Iran conclude a nuclear fuel supply agreement in which Russia would provide fuel for the Bushehr reactor it is constructing and Iran would return the spent nuclear fuel to Russia. The arrangement is aimed at preventing Iran from extracting plutonium for nuclear weapons from the spent nuclear fuel."[4] | Iran, Russia | ||
| 2005 | August 8 | "Iran begins producing uranium hexafluoride at its Isfahan facility. As a result, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom halt negotiations with Tehran. September 24, 2005: The IAEA adopts a resolution finding Iran in noncompliance with its safeguards agreement by a vote of 22-1 with 12 members abstaining. The resolution says that the nature of Iran’s nuclear activities and the lack of assurance in their peaceful nature fall under the purview of the UN Security Council, paving the way for a future referral."[4] | Iran | ||
| 2006 | Robert Jervis is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award For showing, scientifically and in policy terms, how cognitive psychology, politically contextualized, can illuminate strategies for the avoidance of nuclear war." | ||||
| 2007 | Intentional (terrorist) | Literature | Michael A. Levi publishes On Nuclear Terrorism, which delves into the subject of nuclear terrorism, examining the decisions a terrorist leader might make when attempting a nuclear attack. Levi highlights numerous obstacles that such a plot might face, leading to various potential ways it could be thwarted. Professor John Mueller's 2010 book, Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism From Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, further explores this theme. Michael Levi is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, specializing in energy and environmental issues. | ||
| 2007 | June | The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) publicly reveals the name of Adnan Gulshair el Shukrijumah. He is alleged to be the operations leader involved in developing tactical plans for detonating nuclear bombs in multiple American cities simultaneously. This disclosure raises concerns about the potential nuclear terrorism threat and highlights the importance of counterterrorism efforts to prevent such catastrophic scenarios. | United States | ||
| 2007 | November | Literature | Jonathan Schell publishes The Seventh Decade in which he scrutinizes emerging nuclear perils. Schell highlights the United States' adoption of fresh nuclear policies during the Bush administration, including a first-strike approach and novel nuclear weaponry development. He argues that these changes triggered arms proliferation in countries like Iran and North Korea, intensified worldwide nuclear arms trade, and heightened the risk of nuclear terrorism. The book provocatively examines the evolving landscape of nuclear security, delving into the implications of these policy shifts. | ||
| 2008 | Research | According to Hastings, when smuggling goods, illicit nonstate actors face a trade-off between the security and efficiency of the route.[2] | |||
| 2009 | February 3 | Intentional | Iran announces having successfully carried out its first satellite launch, raising international concerns that the country's ballistic missile potential is growing.[4] | Iran | |
| 2009 | April 14 | "North Korea Walks Out of Six Party Talks Negotiations among China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States to find a peaceful resolution to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program fell apart after the UN Security Council condemned a North Korean test launch of a rocket, which it had disguised as part of its civilian space program. The negotiations, known as the Six Party Talks, had lasted six years but failed to reach a resolution. North Korea remains one of the most unstable nuclear powers today." | |||
| 2009 | June 25 | Nuclear weapon program | Nuclear test | North Korea conducts its second nuclear test, an underground nuclear weapons testing estimated to have a yield of 2 to 6 kilotons.[15] | North Korea |
| 2009 | Graham Allison - "For illuminating alternative ways of thinking about political decision making with special relevance to crises, including nuclear crises, as demonstrated in his groundbreaking Essence of Decision and subsequent works." | ||||
| 2009 | Non-intentional | Policy | The Obama administration takes steps to halt the development of the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository by reducing funding of the site to almost negligible levels. The Yucca Mountain project, located in Nevada, was intended to serve as a long-term geological repository for the storage of high-level nuclear waste from commercial nuclear power plants.[18][2] | United States | |
| 2010 | November | "In November 2010, North Korea unveiled a large uranium-enrichment plant to former officials and academics from the United States. The Yongbyon plant contained approximately 2,000 gas centrifuges that were claimed to be operating and producing low-enriched uranium (LEU) for a light-water reactor (LWR) that North Korea is constructing. This plant is estimated to be capable of producing two metric tons of LEU each year, enough to fuel the LWR reactor under construction, or to produce 40 kg of highly-enriched uranium (HEU), enough for one to two nuclear weapons. As of January 2018, North Korea is estimated to possess 250-500 kg of uranium."[15] | North Korea | ||
| 2011 | May 8 | The Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran initiates its operations and accomplishes a continuous chain reaction with success within two days.[4] | Iran | ||
| 2012 | April | "KN-08 (Hwasong-13): The KN-08 is an intercontinental ballistic missile under development with an estimated range of 5,500-11,500km. Given that the system has not been tested, however, the range estimates are highly speculative. It was first unveiled in April 2012 and has not yet been tested, although North Korea likely tested the rocket engine for this system."[15] | North Korea | ||
| 2012 | June 29 | Intentional | International resolution | United Nations Security Council Resolution 2055 is adopted. | |
| 2012 | Robert Powell is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award "For sophisticated game theoretic models of conflict that illuminate the heart of the strategic dilemmas of nuclear deterrence, including the importance of private information." | ||||
| 2013 | February 12 | "On February 12, 2013, the Korean Central News Agency announced that North Korea successfully detonated a nuclear device at its underground test site. The explosive yield was estimated at approximately 15 kilotons. North Korea claimed the device was ‘miniaturized’, a term commonly used to refer to a warhead light enough to fit on the tip of a ballistic missile."[15] | North Korea | ||
| 2013 | April | "North Korea announced its intention to restart its Yongbyon 5MWe Reactor for plutonium production in April 2013, after disabling it as a part of the six-party talks in 2007. North Korea declared the site to be “fully operational” by late August 2015.
The reactor is capable of producing six kg of weapons-grade plutonium each year. Satellite imagery from April 2016, January 2017, and April 2018 confirmed increased activity at the reprocessing site. As of January 2018, North Korea is estimated to possess 20-40 kg of plutonium."[15] || North Korea | |||
| 2015 | December 28 | "Iran announces that it shipped 8.5 tonnes of low-enriched uranium, including the 20 percent enriched material in scrap and waste, out of the country to Russia. In return, Iran receives 140 tonnes of uranium yellowcake."[4] | Iran | ||
| 2016 | February | "A February 2016 Congressional report confirmed that both Syria and Iran have received missile technology from North Korea. While Syria has also engaged in nuclear technology cooperation with North Korea, the report found no evidence that Iran has done so. Pyongyang is widely believed to have provided missile cooperation to Burma."[15] | North Korea | ||
| 2016 | March 9 | Iran test launches two different variations of the Qadr medium-range ballistic missile.[4] | Iran | ||
| 2017 | January 28 | "Iran test fires a medium-range ballistic missile, in defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 2231. The test prompts former NSA Michael Flynn, on February 1, to declare the United States has placed Iran “on notice.”"[4] | Iran | ||
| 2017 | September 22 | Missile program | Iran parades its new medium-range ballistic missile Khoramshahr, tested in January, with a range of about 2,000 km.[4] | Iran | |
| 2018 | "Etel Solingen is awarded the William and Katherine Estes Award For providing the first systematic analysis in contemporary international relations connecting political economy, globalization, and nuclear choices on the one hand with domestic politics and nuclear behavior on the other. Her theoretical and empirical contributions have left an indelible impact on work within the academy and on broader public understanding of nuclear war." | ||||
| 2020 | November 27 | "November 27, 2020: Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is assassinated near Tehran. November 28, 2020: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani suggests that Israel is behind the assassination of Fakhrizadeh."[4] | Iran | ||
| 2020 | December 18 | "December 18, 2020: Satellite imagery reveals that Iran has begun construction at the underground Fordow enrichment facility. The design and purpose of the new construction remains unclear."[4] | Iran |
- ↑ "- FEDERAL PROTECTIVE SERVICE REFORM ACT OF 2000". www.govinfo.gov. Retrieved 21 September 2022.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 Stulberg, Adam N.; Fuhrmann, Matthew (23 January 2013). The Nuclear Renaissance and International Security. Stanford University Press. ISBN 978-0-8047-8530-3.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedTimeline_of_the_NPT - ↑ 4.00 4.01 4.02 4.03 4.04 4.05 4.06 4.07 4.08 4.09 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 4.16 4.17 "Timeline of Nuclear Diplomacy With Iran | Arms Control Association". www.armscontrol.org. Retrieved 23 September 2022.
- ↑ Matin, Abdul (1 March 2014). "Forty one years of Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission". The Daily Star. Retrieved 21 September 2022.
- ↑ "Welcome To Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission". archive.org. Retrieved 28 September 2022.
- ↑ Matin, Abdul (1 March 2014). "Forty one years of Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission". The Daily Star. Retrieved 2 September 2023.
- ↑ "The results of a nuclear incident in Czechoslovakia". The Unexpected Traveller. 10 August 2020.
- ↑ Schneider et al. 2009b
- ↑ "Corporate Profile – Portal Rasmi Jabatan Tenaga Atom". aelb.gov.my. Retrieved 21 September 2022.
- ↑ Board, Atomic Energy Licencing. "Annual report 1997". inis.iaea.org. Retrieved 23 September 2022.
- ↑ "Malaysian Nuclear Security Support Center to Make IAEA Radiation Detection Equipment Available Regionally". www.iaea.org. 7 October 2020. Retrieved 23 September 2022.
- ↑ Holt and Andrews 2007
- ↑ Kerr, Paul K. (2011). Iran¿s Nuclear Program: Tehran¿s Compliance with International Obligations. DIANE Publishing. p. 3. ISBN 978-1-4379-2281-3.
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedwww.armsco - ↑ Graham Allison, “Nuclear Terrorism: Did We Beat the Odds or Change Them?,” PRISM 7, no. 3 (2018): 2–21.
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedLeigh - ↑ Farrell 2010)
