Timeline of cognitive biases

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This is a timeline of cognitive biases.

Sample questions

The following are some interesting questions that can be answered by reading this timeline:

  • What are the different types of cognitive bias described by the timeline?

Big picture

Time period Development summary More details
1972 backward Pre concept development era Multiple concepts later included within the category of cognitive biases are developed throughout time, starting from ancient Greek philosophers.
1972 onward Modern period The notion of cognitive biases is introduced by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.
21st century Present time As of 2020, there are approximately 188 recognized cognitive biases.[1]

Full timeline

Year Bias type Event type Details Concept definition (when applicable)
c.180 CE Social bias Field development Many philosophers and social theorists observe and consider the phenomenon of belief in a just world, going back to at least as early as the Pyrrhonist philosopher Sextus Empiricus, writing circa 180 CE, who argues against this belief.[2] "The just-world hypothesis is the belief that people get what they deserve since life is fair."[3]
1747 Field development Scottish doctor James Lind conducts the first systematic clinical trial.[4]
1753 Availability bias Field development Anthropomorphism is first attested, originally in reference to the heresy of applying a human form to the Christian God.[5][6] Anthropomorphism is "the interpretation of nonhuman things or events in terms of human characteristics".[7]
1776–1799 Field development The declinism belief is traced back to Edward Gibbon's work,[8] The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, published between 1776 and 1788, where Gibbon argues that Rome collapsed due to the gradual loss of civic virtue among its citizens,[9] Declinism is "the tendency to believe that the worst is to come".[10]
1796 Literature French scholar Pierre-Simon Laplace describes in A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities the ways in which men calculate their probability of having sons: "I have seen men, ardently desirous of having a son, who could learn only with anxiety of the births of boys in the month when they expected to become fathers. Imagining that the ratio of these births to those of girls ought to be the same at the end of each month, they judged that the boys already born would render more probable the births next of girls." The expectant fathers feared that if more sons were born in the surrounding community, then they themselves would be more likely to have a daughter. This essay by Laplace is regarded as one of the earliest descriptions of the fallacy.[11] "The Gambler's Fallacy is the misconception that something that has not happened for a long time has become 'overdue', such a coin coming up heads after a series of tails."[12]
1798 Concept origin The term stereotype is first used in the printing trade by Firmin Didot, to describe a printing plate that duplicated any typography. The duplicate printing plate, or the stereotype, is used for printing instead of the original.[13]
1847 Concept development The term Semmelweis effect derives from the name of a Hungarian physician, Ignaz Semmelweis, who discovered in 1847 that childbed fever mortality rates fell ten-fold when doctors disinfected their hands with a chlorine solution before moving from one patient to another, or, most particularly, after an autopsy. The Semmelweis effect is a metaphor for the reflex-like tendency to reject new evidence or new knowledge because it contradicts established norms, beliefs, or paradigms.[14] Semmelweis effect "refers to the tendency to automatically reject new information or knowledge because it contradicts current thinking or beliefs."[15]
1848 Social bias Concept origin Bandwagon effect "The phrase "jump on the bandwagon" first appeared in American politics in 1848 when Dan Rice, a famous and popular circus clown of the time, used his bandwagon and its music to gain attention for his political campaign appearances. As his campaign became more successful, other politicians strove for a seat on the bandwagon, hoping to be associated with his success. Later, during the time of William Jennings Bryan's 1900 presidential campaign, bandwagons had become standard in campaigns,[16] and the phrase "jump on the bandwagon" was used as a derogatory term, implying that people were associating themselves with success without considering that with which they associated themselves." Bandwagon effect "is a psychological phenomenon whereby people do something primarily because other people are doing it, regardless of their own beliefs, which they may ignore or override."[17]
1850 Concept origin The first reference to “stereotype” appears as a noun that means “image perpetuated without change.”[13]
1860 Concept origin Both Weber's law and Fechner's law are published by Gustav Theodor Fechner in the work Elemente der Psychophysik (Elements of Psychophysics). This publication is the first work ever in this field, and where Fechner coins the term psychophysics to describe the interdisciplinary study of how humans perceive physical magnitudes.[18] Weber–Fechner law "states that the change in a stimulus that will be just noticeable is a constant ratio of the original stimulus."[19]
1866 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (apophenia) Concept origin Pareidolia "The German word pareidolie was used in German articles by Dr. Karl Ludwig Kahlbaum — for example in his 1866 paper "On Delusion of the Senses". When Kahlbaum's paper was reviewed the following year (1867) in The Journal of Mental Science, Volume 13, pareidolie was translated as pareidolia: "…partial hallucination, perception of secondary images, or pareidolia.""[20] Pareidolia is "the tendency to perceive a specific, often meaningful image in a random or ambiguous visual pattern."[21]
1874 Memory bias Field development The first documented instance of cryptomnesia occurs with the medium Stainton Moses.[22][23] Cryptomnesia is "an implicit memory phenomenon in which people mistakenly believe that a current thought or idea is a product of their own creation when, in fact, they have encountered it previously and then forgotten it".[24]
1876 Field development German experimental psychologist Gustav Fechner conducts the earliest known research on the mere-exposure effect.[25] Mere-exposure effect "means that people prefer things that they are most familiar with".[26]
1882 Concept origin The term specious present is first introduced by the philosopher E. R. Clay.[27][28] Specious present "is the time duration wherein a state of consciousness is experienced as being in the present".[29]
1885 Memory bias Concept origin The phenomenon of spacing effect is first identified by Hermann Ebbinghaus, and his detailed study of it is published in his book Über das Gedächtnis. Untersuchungen zur experimentellen Psychologie (Memory: A Contribution to Experimental Psychology). "The spacing effect describes the robust finding that long-term learning is promoted when learning events are spaced out in time, rather than presented in immediate succession".[30]
1890 Memory bias Concept origin The term "tip of the tongue" is borrowed from colloquial usage,[31] and possibly a calque from the French phrase avoir le mot sur le bout de la langue ("having the word on the tip of the tongue"). The tip of the tongue phenomenon was first described as a psychological phenomenon in the text The Principles of Psychology by William James (1890), although he did not label it as such.[32] Tip of the tongue describes "a state in which one cannot quite recall a familiar word but can recall words of similar form and meaning".[33]
1893 Memory bias Concept origin Childhood amnesia is first formally reported by psychologist Caroline Miles in her article A study of individual psychology by the American Journal of Psychology.[34] " refers to the fact that most people cannot remember events that occurred before the age of 3 or 4"[35]
1906 Concept origin The first known use of bandwagon effect occurs in this year.[36]
1906 Social bias Field development Sociologist William Sumner posits that humans are a species that join together in groups by their very nature. However, he also maintains that humans have an innate tendency to favor their own group over others, proclaiming how "each group nourishes its own pride and vanity, boasts itself superior, exists in its own divinities, and looks with contempt on outsiders" (p. 13).[37] In-group favoritism is "the tendency to favor members of one's own group over those in other groups"[38]
1909 Memory bias Concept origin The first documented empirical studies on the testing effect are published by Edwina E. Abbott.[39][40] Testing effect
1913 Concept origin The term "Monte Carlo fallacy" originates from the best known example of the phenomenon, which occurs in the Monte Carlo Casino.[41] Monte Carlo fallacy "occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely, given a previous event or a series of events."[42]
1914 Memory bias Concept origin The first research on the cross-race effect is published.[43] "The tendency for eyewitnesses to be better at recognizing members of their own race/ethnicity than members of other races."[44]
1920 Social bias Concept origin The halo effect is named by psychologist Edward Thorndike[45] in reference to a person being perceived as having a halo. He gives the phenomenon its name in his article A Constant Error in Psychological Ratings.[46] In "Constant Error", Thorndike sets out to replicate the study in hopes of pinning down the bias that he thought was present in these ratings. Subsequent researchers would study it in relation to attractiveness and its bearing on the judicial and educational systems.[47] Thorndike originally coins the term referring only to people; however, its use would be greatly expanded especially in the area of brand marketing.[46] "First coined back in 1920, the halo effect describes how our impression of a person forms a halo around our conception of their character." "The term was coined by psychologist Edwin Thorndike in 1920."[48][49] "Error in reasoning in which an impression formed from a single trait or characteristic is allowed to influence multiple judgments or ratings of unrelated factors."[50]
1922 Concept origin The term “stereotype” is first used in the modern psychological sense by American journalist Walter Lippmann in his work Public Opinion.[13]
1927 Memory bias Research Russian psychologist Bluma Zeigarnik publishes in the journal Psychologische Forschung a report on a series of experiments uncovering the processes underlying the phenomenon later called Zeigarnik effect.[51] Russian psychologist Bluma Zeigarnik first studies the phenomenon after her professor and Gestalt psychologist Kurt Lewin noticed that a waiter had better recollections of still unpaid orders. However, after the completion of the task – after everyone had paid – he was unable to remember any more details of the orders. Zeigarnik then designed a series of experiments to uncover the processes underlying this phenomenon. Her research report was published in 1927, in the journal Psychologische Forschung.[52] "Tendency to remember interrupted or incomplete tasks or events more easily than tasks that have been completed."[53]
1928 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Literature Irving Fisher publishes The Money Illusion, which develops the concept of the same name.[54] "It posits that people have a tendency to view their wealth and income in nominal dollar terms, rather than recognize its real value, adjusted for inflation."[55]
1930 Concept origin The specious present is further developed by William James.[28] "James defined the specious present to be "the prototype of all conceived times... the short duration of which we are immediately and incessantly sensible". In "Scientific Thought" (1930), C. D. Broad further elaborated on the concept of the specious present and considered that the specious present may be considered as the temporal equivalent of a sensory datum.[28]
1932 Memory bias Field development Some of the earliest evidence for the Fading Affect Bias dates back to a study by Cason, who does a study using a retrospective procedure where participants recall and rate past events and emotion when prompted finds that recalled emotional intensity for positive events is generally stronger than that of negative events.[56] The Fading Affect Bias "indicates that the emotional response prompted by positive memories often tends to be stronger than the emotional response prompted by negative memories."[57]
1933 Memory bias Concept origin The Von Restorff effect theory is coined by German psychiatrist and pediatrician Hedwig von Restorff, who, in her study, finds that when participants are presented with a list of categorically similar items with one distinctive, isolated item on the list, memory for the item is improved.[58] "It predicts that when multiple similar objects are present, the one that differs from the rest is most likely to be remembered."[59]
1945 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (anchoring bias) Concept origin Karl Duncker defines functional fixedness as being a "mental block against using an object in a new way that is required to solve a problem".[60] "It is the inability to realize that something known to have a particular use may also be used to perform other functions."[61]
1946 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (logical fallacy) Concept origin " In 1946, Berkson first illustrated the presence of a false correlation due to this last reason, which is known as Berkson's paradox and is one of the most famous paradox in probability and statistics."[62] Berkson's bias or fallacy, is a type of selection bias Berkson's paradox "is a type of selection bias - a mathematical result found in the fields of conditional probability and statistics in which two variables can be negatively correlated even though they have the appearance of being positively correlated within the population."[63]
1947 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (extension neglect) Concept origin Joseph Stalin introduces the concept of compassion fade with his statement “the death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions is a statistic”.[64] Compassion fade "refers to the decrease in the compassion one shows for the people in trouble as the number of the victims increase."[65]
1952 Social (conformity bias) Concept origin William H. Whyte Jr. derives the term groupthink from George Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four and popularizes it in Fortune magazine:
Groupthink being a coinage – and, admittedly, a loaded one – a working definition is in order. We are not talking about mere instinctive conformity – it is, after all, a perennial failing of mankind. What we are talking about is a rationalized conformity – an open, articulate philosophy which holds that group values are not only expedient but right and good as well.[66][67]
1954 Social bias Concept origin The social comparison theory is initially proposed by social psychologist Leon Festinger. It centers on the belief that there is a drive within individuals to gain accurate self-evaluations.[68] The social comparison theory refers to "the idea that individuals determine their own social and personal worth based on how they stack up against others".[69]
1956 Concept origin The term "Barnum effect" is coined by psychologist Paul Meehl in his essay Wanted – A Good Cookbook, because he relates the vague personality descriptions used in certain "pseudo-successful" psychological tests to those given by showman P. T. Barnum.[70][71] Barnum effect is "the phenomenon that occurs when individuals believe that personality descriptions apply specifically to them (more so than to other people), despite the fact that the description is actually filled with information that applies to everyone."[72]
1957 Concept origin "Parkinson's law of triviality is C. Northcote Parkinson's 1957 argument that members of an organization give disproportionate weight to trivial issues."[73] Parkinson's law of triviality "explains that people will give more energy and focus to trivial or unimportant items than to more important and complex ones."[74]
1960 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin English psychhologist Peter Wason first describes the confirmation bias.[75][76][77] "Confirmation bias is the tendency of people to favor information that confirms their existing beliefs or hypotheses."[78]
1960 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (confirmation bias) Concept origin "The classic example of subjects' congruence bias was discovered by Peter Cathcart Wason"[79] Congruence bias is "the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, instead of considering possible alternatives."[80]
1961 Social bias Study Authority bias. The Milgram experiment is the classic experiment that established its existence.[81] "Authority bias is the human tendency to attribute greater authority and knowledge to persons of authority (fame, power, position, etc.) than they may actually possess."[82]
1961 Ambiguity effect Concept origin The ambiguity effect is first described by Daniel Ellsberg.[83] "Ambiguity Effect occurs when people prefer options with known probabilities over those with unknown probabilities."[84]
1964 Memory bias Concept origin Telescoping effect. The original work on telescoping is usually attributed to a 1964 article by Neter and Waksberg in the Journal of the American Statistical Association.[85] The term telescoping comes from the idea that time seems to shrink toward the present in the way that the distance to objects seems to shrink when they are viewed through a telescope.[85]
1964 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (anchoring bias) Concept origin The first recorded statement of the concept of Law of the instrument is Abraham Kaplan's: "I call it the law of the instrument, and it may be formulated as follows: Give a small boy a hammer, and he will find that everything he encounters needs pounding."[86]
1966 Study An experiment shows that people remember a group of words better if they are within the same theme category. Such words that generate recall by association are known as semantic cues.[87]
1966 Social (egocentric bias) Research Walster hypothesizes that it can be frightening to believe that a misfortune could happen to anyone at random, and attributing responsibility to the person(s) involved helps to manage this emotional reaction.[88] Defensive attribution hypothesis
1967 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Notable case Risk compensation. Sweden experiences a drop in crashes and fatalities, following the change from driving on the left to driving on the right. This is linked to the increased apparent risk. The number of motor insurance claims goes down by 40%, returning to normal over the next six weeks.[89][90] Fatality levels would take two years to return to normal.[91] "Risk compensation postulates that humans have a built-in level of acceptable risk-taking and that our behaviour adjusts to this level in a homeostatic manner".[92]
1967 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (apophenia) Concept origin "Chapman (1967) described a bias in the judgment of the frequency with which two events co-occur. This demonstration showed that the co-occurrence of paired stimuli resulted in participants overestimating the frequency of the pairings." ""Illusory correlation" was originally coined by Chapman and Chapman (1967) to describe people's tendencies to overestimate relationships between two groups when distinctive and unusual information is presented.[93]"[94] An illusory correlation occurs when a person perceives a relationship between two variables that are not in fact correlated.[95]
1967 Social (attribution bias) Research Fundamental attribution error Edward E. Jones and Victor Harris conduct a classic experiment[96] that would later give rise to the phrase Fundamental attribution error, coined by Lee Ross[97] "is the tendency for people to over-emphasize dispositional, or personality-based explanations for behaviors observed in others while under-emphasizing situational explanations".[98]
1968 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (anchoring bias) Concept origin Conservatism bias .The conservatism (belief revision) bias is discussed by Ward Edwards.[99] "Conservatism bias is a mental process in which people maintain their past views or predictions at the cost of recognizing new information."[100]
1968 Social Concept origin "The Pygmalion Effect (also called the Galatea effect) originates with researchers Robert Rosenthal and Lenore Jacobsen in 1968."[101] Pygmalion Effect "refers to the phenomenon of people improving their performance when others have high expectations of them."[102]
1969 Social (cognitive dissonance) Concept origin Researchers confirm the Ben Franklin effect.[103] The Ben Franklin effect refers to "an altruistic reaction that makes a person more likely to do a favor for someone that they have already completed a favor for; more likely than they are to return a favor to someone who has completed a favor for them."[104]
1969 Memory bias Research Crowder and Morton argue that the suffix effect is a reflection of the contribution of the auditory sensory memory or echoic memory to recall in the nonsuffix control condition.[105] "The suffix effect is the selective impairment in recall of the final items of a spoken list when the list is followed by a nominally irrelevant speech item, or suffix."[106]
1971 Social bias Concept origin The concept of actor–observer asymmetry (also actor–observer bias) is introduced by Jones and Nisbett. It explains the errors that one makes when forming attributions about the behavior of others.[107] The actor–observer asymmetry "states that people tend to explain their own behavior with situation causes and other people's behavior with person causes".[108]
1972 Concept origin The Levels of Processing model is created by Fergus I. M. Craik and Robert S. Lockhart.[109]
1972 Concept origin The concept of cognitive bias is introduced in this year through the work of researchers Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.[110] Cognitive bias refers to "people's systematic but purportedly flawed patterns of responses to judgment and decision problems."[111]
1973 Baruch Fischhoff attends a seminar where Paul E. Meehl states an observation that clinicians often overestimate their ability to have foreseen the outcome of a particular case, as they claim to have known it all along.[112] Hindsight bias
1973 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (egocentric bias) Concept origin The illusion of validity bias is first described by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in their paper.[113] The illusion of validity occurs when an individual overestimates their ability to predict an outcome when analyzing a set of data - especially when the data appears to have a consistent pattern or appears to 'tell a story".[114]
1973 Memory bias Concept origin The next-in-line effect is first studied experimentally by Malcolm Brenner. In his experiment the participants were each in turn reading a word aloud from an index card, and after 25 words were asked to recall as many of all the read words as possible. The results of the experiment show that words read aloud within approximately nine seconds before the subject's own turn are recalled worse than other words.[115]
1974 Memory bias Research Elizabeth Loftus and John Palmer conduct a study to investigate the effects of language on the development of false memory.[116] "False memory refers to cases in which people remember events differently from the way they happened or, in the most dramatic case, remember events that never happened at all."[117]
1974 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin " One of the common heuristics used when making judgements is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, first described in 1974 (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). In this heuristic, when people estimate an unknown quantity (say, the length of the average American commute) they begin with an ‘anchor’ of information they do know (say, their own commute) and adjust until an acceptable value is reached. This anchor could be based on information given to a person (such as the advertised price of new car before bargaining) or it could be drawn from personal experience (the price a friend paid for a new car)."[118] Anchoring
1975 American psychologist Stanley Smith Stevens proposes that the strength of a stimulus (e.g., the brightness of a light, the severity of a crime) is encoded neurally in a way that is independent of modality. Kahneman and Frederick would build on this idea, arguing that the target attribute and heuristic attribute could be unrelated.[119]
1975 Social (attribution bias) Research Miller and Ross conduct a study that is one of the earliest to assess not only self-serving bias but also the attributions for successes and failures within this theory.[120] Self-serving bias is the common habit of a person taking credit for positive events or outcomes, but blaming outside factors for negative events."[121]
1976 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (logical fallacy) Concept origin Escalation of commitment is first described by Barry M. Staw in his paper Knee deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action.[122] Escalation of commitment "refers to the irrational behavior of investing additional resources in a failing project."[123]
1976 Social (attribution bias) Research Prior to Pettigrew's formalization of the ultimate attribution error, Birt Duncan finds that White participants view Black individuals as more violent than White individuals in an "ambiguous shove" situation, where a Black or White person accidentally shoves a White person.[124] "The tendency for persons from one group (the ingroup) to determine that any bad acts by members of an outgroup—for example, a racial or ethnic minority group—are caused by internal attributes or traits rather than by outside circumstances or situations, while viewing their positive behaviors as merely exceptions to the rule or the result of luck."[125]
1977 Memory bias Research Misattribution of memory. Early research done by Brown and Kulik finds that flashbulb memories are similar to photographs because they can be described in accurate, vivid detail. In this study, participants describe their circumstances about the moment they learned of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy as well as other similar traumatic events. Participants are able to describe what they were doing, things around them, and other details.[126] Misattribution of memory occurs "when a memory is distorted because of the source, context, or our imagination."[127]
1977 Social (egocentric bias) Concept origin The false consensus effect is first defined by Ross, Green and House.[128]
1977 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (truthiness) Concept origin The illusory truth effect is first identified in a study at Villanova University and Temple University.[129][130] The illusory truth effect "occurs when repeating a statement increases the belief that it’s true even when the statement is actually false."[131]
1977 Social bias Concept origin A study conducted by Lee Ross and colleagues provides early evidence for a cognitive bias called the false consensus effect, which is the tendency for people to overestimate the extent to which others share the same views.[132] The false-consensus effect "refers to the tendency to overestimate consensus for one′s attitudes and behaviors."[133]
1977 Memory bias Research T. B. Rogers and colleagues publish the first research on the self-reference effect.[134][135]
1978 Memory bias Research Loftus, Miller, and Burns conduct the original misinformation effect study.[136] The misinformation effect "happens when a person's memory becomes less accurate due to information that happens after the event."[137]
1979 Research "In 1979, professor of psychology and author Charles G. Lord sought answers[1] as to whether we might overcome the Bacon principle, or whether humans are always held hostage to their initial beliefs even in the face of compelling and contradictory evidence."[138]
1979 Social (attribution bias) Research Thomas Nagel identifies four kinds of moral luck in his essay.[139] "Moral luck occurs when the features of action which generate a particular moral assessment lie significantly beyond the control of the agent who is so assessed."[140]
1979 Social bias Concept origin The ultimate attribution error is first established by Thomas F. Pettigrew in his publication The Ultimate Attribution Error: Extending Allport's Cognitive Analysis of Prejudice.[141] "Ultimate attribution error refers to the tendency of individuals to make less internal attributions of negative behaviors committed by ingroup members compared to outgroup members."[142]
1979 Social bias Concept origin "David Kahneman (and his associate Amos Tversky) originally coined the term loss aversion in 1979 in a landmark paper on subjective probability. Kahneman published “Thinking, Fast and Slow” in 2013."[143] "Loss aversion is a cognitive bias that suggests that for individuals the pain of losing is psychologically twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining."[144]
1979 Concept origin The planning fallacy is first proposed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky,[145][146] "The planning fallacy refers to a prediction phenomenon, all too familiar to many, wherein people underestimate the time it will take to complete a future task, despite knowledge that previous tasks have generally taken longer than planned"[147]
1979 "An individual can evaluate his or her own thought process, also known as metacognition, which provides an opportunity to combat bias. First introduced in 1979 by Flavell (14), metacognition is described as “thinking about thinking” "[148]
1980 Memory bias Concept origin The term "egocentric bias" is first coined by Anthony Greenwald, a psychologist at Ohio State University.[149] "The egocentric bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to rely too heavily on their own point of view when they examine events in their life or when they try to see things from other people’s perspective."[150]
1980 Social bias Group attribution error type I. Ruth Hamill, Richard E. Nisbett, and Timothy DeCamp Wilson were the first to study this form of group attribution error in detail in their 1980 paper Insensitivity to Sample Bias: Generalizing From Atypical Cases. In their study, the researchers provided participants with a case study about an individual welfare recipient. Half of the participants were given statistics showing that the individual was typical for a welfare recipient and had been on the program for the typical amount of time, while the other half of participants were given statistics showing that the welfare recipient had been on the program much longer than normal. The results of the study revealed that participants did indeed draw extremely negative opinions of all welfare recipients as a result of the case study. It was also found that the differences in statistics provided to the two groups had trivial to no effect on the level of group attribution error.[151] Group attribution error is "the tendency for perceivers to assume that a specific group member’s personal characteristics and preferences, including beliefs, attitudes, and decisions, are similar to those of the group to which he or she belongs."[152]
1980 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (truthiness) Concept origin The term subjective validation first appears in the book The Psychology of the Psychic by David F. Marks and Richard Kammann.[153] subjective validation "causes an individual to consider a statement or another piece of information correct if it has any significance or personal meaning (validating their previous opinion) to them."[154]
1980 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin Optimism bias "This phenomenon was initially described by Weinstein in 1980, who found that the majority of college students believed that their chances of developing a drinking problem or getting divorced were lower than their peers"[155]
1981 Social bias Study Framing effect "The Framing effect is the principle that our choices are influenced by the way they are framed through different wordings, settings, and situations."[156]
1981 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (prospect theory) Concept origin "The pseudocertainty effect was illustrated by Daniel Kahneman, who received the Nobel Prize in economics for his work on decision making and decision theory, in collaboration with Amos Tversky. The studies that they researched used real and hypothetical monetary gambles and were often used in undergraduate classrooms and laboratories.[157] "Pseudocertainty effect refers to people's tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes."[158]
1982 Social (egocentric bias) Research Trait ascription bias. In a study involving fifty-six undergraduate psychology students from the University of Bielefeld, Kammer et al. demonstrate that subjects rate their own variability on each of 20 trait terms to be considerably higher than their peers.[159] "Trait ascription bias is the belief that other people's behavior and reactions are generally predictable while you yourself are more unpredictable."[160]
1982 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (framing effect) Research "The Decoy Effect, first demonstrated in 1982 by Joel Huber and others at Duke University, explains how when a customer is hesitating between two options, presenting them with a third “asymmetrically dominated” option that acts as a decoy will strongly influence which decision they make."[161]
1983 Social (egocentric bias) Concept origin Sociologist W. Phillips Davison first articulates the third-person effect hypothesis. "is the commonly held belief that other people are more affected, due to personal prejudices, by mass media than you yourself are. This view, largely due to a personal conceit, is caused by the self-concept of being more astute and aware than others, or of being less vulnerable to persuasion than others."[162]
1983 Social (conformity bias) Research Jones reports the presence of courtesy bias in Asian cultures.[163] "Courtesy bias is the tendency that some individuals have of not fully stating their unhappiness with a service or product because of a desire not to offend the person or organization that they are responding to."[164]
1985 Social bias Concept origin Group attribution error. Type II. "The second form of group attribution error was first reported by Scott T. Allison and David Messick in 1985"
1985 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (prospect theory) Concept origin The disposition effect anomaly is identified and named by Hersh Shefrin and Meir Statman. In their study, Shefrin and Statman note that "people dislike incurring losses much more than they enjoy making gains, and people are willing to gamble in the domain of losses." Consequently, "investors will hold onto stocks that have lost value...and will be eager to sell stocks that have risen in value." The researchers coined the term "disposition effect" to describe this tendency of holding on to losing stocks too long and to sell off well-performing stocks too readily. Shefrin colloquially described this as a "predisposition toward get-evenitis." John R. Nofsinger has called this sort of investment behavior as a product of the desire to avoid regret and seek pride.[165] "The disposition effect refers to investors’ reluctance to sell assets that have lost value and greater likelihood of selling assets that have made gains."[166]
1985 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (logical fallacy) Concept origin The hot-hand fallacy is first described in a paper by Amos Tversky, Thomas Gilovich, and Robert Vallone. "The hot-hand fallacy effect refers to the tendency for people to expect streaks in sports performance to continue."[167]
1986 Memory bias Research McDaniel and Einstein argue that bizarreness intrinsically does not enhance memory in their paper.[168] "The bizarreness effect holds that items associated with bizarre sentences or phrases are more readily recalled than those associated with common sentences or phrases."[169]
1988 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Research In an experiment by Baron, Beattie and Hershey, subjects considered this diagnostic problem involving fictitious diseases.[170] "Information bias is any systematic difference from the truth that arises in the collection, recall, recording and handling of information in a study, including how missing data is dealt with."[171]
1988 Social Concept origin The Reactive devaluation bias is proposed by Lee Ross and Constance Stillinger.[172] "Reactive Devaluation is tendency to value the proposal of someone we recognized as an antagonist as being less interesting than if it was made by someone else."[173]
1988 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (prospect theory) Research Samuelson and Zeckhauser demonstrate status quo bias using a questionnaire in which subjects faced a series of decision problems, which were alternately framed to be with and without a pre-existing status quo position. Subjects tended to remain with the status quo when such a position was offered to them.[174] "Status quo bias refers to the phenomenon of preferring that one's environment and situation remain as they already are."[175]
1989 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin The term "curse of knowledge" is coined in a Journal of Political Economy article by economists Colin Camerer, George Loewenstein, and Martin Weber. The curse of knowledge causes people to fail to account for the fact that others don't know the same things that they do.[176]
1990 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (prospect theory) Research Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler publish a paper containing the first experimental test of the Endowment Effect.[177] It refers to an emotional bias that causes individuals to value an owned object higher, often irrationally, than its market value.
1990 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (confirmation bias) Concept origin "There is also a well-described phenomenon known as “satisfaction of search”, first described in 1990, in which a radiologist fails to detect a second abnormality, apparently because of prematurely ceasing to search the images after detecting a “satisfying” finding, perhaps one that explains the patient’s clinical symptoms or is “satisfying” to the radiologist in some other wa"[178]
1991 Social (egocentric bias) Concept origin The term illusory superiority is first used by the researchers Van Yperen and Buunk.[179] Illusory superiority "indicates an individual who has a belief that they are somehow inherently superior to others".[180]
1991 Social (conformity bias) Research Marín and Marín report courtesy bias to be common in Hispanic cultures.[163] The "Courtesy Bias is the reluctance of an individual to give negative feedback for fear of offending."[181]
1994 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin The Women are wonderful effect term is coined by researchers Alice Eagly and Antonio Mladinic in a paper, where they question the widely-held view that there was prejudice against women.[182] "The women are wonderful effect is a phenomenon found in psychological research in which people associate more positive attributes with women as compared to men."[183]
1995 Concept origin The implicit bias is first described in a publication by Tony Greenwald and Mahzarin Banaji.[184] "Research on implicit bias suggests that people can act on the basis of prejudice and stereotypes without intending to do so."[185]
1996 Research Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky argue that cognitive biases have efficient practical implications for areas including clinical judgment, entrepreneurship, finance, and management.[186][187]
1998 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Research Impact bias. "In Gilbert et al., 1998, there was a conducted study on individuals participating in a job interview. The participants were separated into two groups; the unfair decision condition (where the decision of being hired was left up to a single MBA student with sole authority listening to the interview) and the fair decision condition (where the decision was made by a team of MBA students who had to independently and unanimously decide the fate of the interviewee). Then, certain participants were chosen to forecast how they would feel if they were chosen or not chosen for the job immediately after learning if they had been hired or fired and then they had to predict how they would feel ten minutes after hearing the news. Then following the interview, all participants were given letters notifying them they had not been selected for the job. All participants were then required to fill out a questionnaire that reported their current happiness. Then after waiting ten minutes, the experimenter presented all the participants with another questionnaire that once again asked them to report their current level of happiness." "Impact bias refers to a human tendency to overestimate emotional responses to events and experiences"[188]
1998 Concept origin The implicit-association test is introduced in the scientific literature by Anthony Greenwald, Debbie McGhee, and Jordan Schwartz.[189] The implicit-association test is "a reaction time based categorization task that measures the differential associative strength between bipolar targets and evaluative attribute concepts as an approach to indexing implicit beliefs or biases."[190]
1998 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (extension neglect) Concept origin "In a 1998 study, Hsee, a professor at the Graduate School of Business of The University of Chicago, discovered a less-is-better effect in three contexts: "(1) a person giving a $45 scarf (from scarves ranging from $5-$50) as a gift was perceived to be more generous than one giving a $55 coat (from coats ranging from $50-$500); (2) an overfilled ice cream serving with 7 oz of ice cream was valued more than an underfilled serving with 8 oz of ice cream; (3) a dinnerware set with 24 intact pieces was judged more favourably than one with 31 intact pieces (including the same 24) plus a few broken ones.""[191] "The less-is-better effect is the tendency to prefer the smaller or the lesser alternative when choosing individually, but not when evaluating together."[192]
1999 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin The psychological phenomenon of illusory superiority known as Dunning–Kruger effect is identified as a form of cognitive bias in Kruger and Dunning's 1999 study, Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments.[193] "The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people wrongly overestimate their knowledge or ability in a specific area."[194]
1999 Memory bias Concept origin The term "spotlight effect" is coined by Thomas Gilovich and Kenneth Savitsky.[157] The phenomenon first appears in the world of psychology in the journal Current Directions in Psychological Science. "The spotlight effect refers to the tendency to think that more people notice something about you than they do."[195]
1999 Social (egocentric bias) Concept origin The formal proposal of naïve cynicism comes from Kruger and Gilovich's study called "'Naive cynicism' in everyday theories of responsibility assessment: On biased assumptions of bias".[196] economics,[197] Naïve cynicism is "the tendency of laypeople to expect other people’s judgments will have a motivational basis and therefore will be biased in the direction of their self-interest."[198]
2002 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin Daniel Kahneman and Shane Frederick propose the process of attribute substitution.[119] "Attribute substitution occurs when an individual has to make a judgment (of a target attribute) that is computationally complex, and instead substitutes a more easily calculated heuristic attribute."[199]
2002 Social (egocentric bias) Concept origin Pronin et al. introduce the concept of "bias blind spot".[200] Bias blind spot "refers to the tendency for people to be able to identify distortionary biases in others, while being ignorant of and susceptible to precisely these biases in their own thinking."[200]
2002 Research Bystander effect. Research indicates that priming a social context may inhibit helping behavior. Imagining being around one other person or being around a group of people can affect a person's willingness to help.[201] "The bystander effect occurs when the presence of others discourages an individual from intervening in an emergency situation."[202]
2003 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin The term projection bias is first introduced in the paper Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility by Loewenstein, O'Donoghue and Rabin.[203] "It refers to people’s assumption that their tastes or preferences will remain the same over time"[204]
2003 Shitij Kapur proposes that a hyperdopaminergic state, at a "brain" level of description, leads to an aberrant assignment of salience to the elements of one's experience, at a "mind" level.[205]
2003 Concept origin Lovallo and Kahneman proposed an expanded definition of planning fallacy as the tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions and at the same time overestimate the benefits of the same actions. According to this definition, the planning fallacy results in not only time overruns, but also cost overruns and benefit shortfalls.[206] Planning fallacy
2004 "One of the most common anchors is personal experience, which is the basis of ego-centric decision-making. Estimating the behaviors, attitudes and thoughts of other people is complex and effortful; anchoring and adjustment makes this process simpler by substituting one’s own perspective and adjusting until a reasonable estimate has been achieved (Epley et al., 2004). "[118]
2004 Social bias Literature The Wisdom of Crowds Herd mentality
2004 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (framing effect) Concept origin The concept of the distinction bias is advanced by Christopher K. Hsee and Jiao Zhang of the University of Chicago as an explanation for differences in evaluations of options between joint evaluation mode and separate evaluation mode.[207] Distinction bias is "an explanation for why people evaluate objects differently when evaluating them jointly, as opposed to separately."[208]
2006 Organization Overcoming Bias launches as a group blog on the "general theme of how to move our beliefs closer to reality, in the face of our natural biases such as overconfidence and wishful thinking, and our bias to believe we have corrected for such biases, when we have done no such thing."[209]
2006 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin The Ostrich effect is coined by Galai & Sade.[210] "The ostrich effect bias is a tendency to ignore dangerous or negative information by ignoring it or burying one's head in the sand"[211]
2007 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin The term recency illusion is coined by Stanford University linguist Arnold Zwicky.[212] The recency illusion is the belief or impression that a word or language usage is of recent origin when it is long-established."[212]
2007 Social (conformity bias) Concept origin The concept of an “availability cascade” is defined by professors Timur Kuran and Cass Sunstein.[213] Availability cascade refers to the "self-reinforcing process of collective belief formation by which an expressed perception triggers a chain reaction that gives the perception of increasing plausibility through its rising availability in public discourse."[213]
2008 Social bias (association fallacy) Concept origin Cheerleader effect. "The phrase was coined by the character Barney Stinson in "Not a Father's Day", an episode of the television series How I Met Your Mother, first aired in November 2008. Barney points out to his friends a group of women that initially seem attractive, but who all seem to be very ugly when examined individually. This point is made again by Ted and Robin later in the episode, who note that some of Barney's friends also only seem attractive in a group."[214] "The cheerleader effect refers to the increase in attractiveness that an individual face experiences when seen in a group of other faces."[215]
2009 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (framing effect) Concept origin The concept of denomination effect is proposed by Priya Raghubir, professor at the New York University Stern School of Business, and Joydeep Srivastava, professor at University of Maryland, in their paper.[216] Denomination effect relates "to currency, whereby people are less likely to spend larger bills than their equivalent value in smaller bills."[217]
2010 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (confirmation bias) Concept origin The phrase backfire effect is first coined by American political scientist Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler.[218]
2010 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (egocentric bias) Research The Handbook of Social Psychology recognizes naïve realism as one of "four hard-won insights about human perception, thinking, motivation and behavior that... represent important, indeed foundational, contributions of social psychology."[219] "Naïve realism describes people’s tendency to believe that they perceive the social world “as it is”—as objective reality—rather than as a subjective construction and interpretation of reality."[220]
2011 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin The IKEA effect is identified and named by Michael I. Norton of Harvard Business School, Daniel Mochon of Yale, and Dan Ariely of Duke University, who publish the results of three studies in this year.[221] "The Ikea Effect is the cognitive phenomena where customers get more excited and place a higher value in the products they have partially created, modified or personalized."[222]
2011 Memory bias Concept origin The Google Eeffect, also known as “digital amnesia”, is first described by Betsy Sparrow from Columbia University and her colleagues. Their paper describes the results of several memory experiments involving technology.[223][224] The Google effect "represents people’s tendency to forget information that they can find online, particularly by using search engines such as Google."[225]
2011 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Notable case The look-elsewhere effect, more generally known in statistics as the problem of multiple comparisons, gains some media attention in the context of the search for the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider.[226] The look-elsewhere effect "occurs when a statistically significant observation is found but, actually, arose by chance and due to the size of the parameter space and sample observed."[227]
2012 Belief, decision-making and behavioral (logical fallacy) Research In an article in Psychological Bulletin it is suggested the subadditivity effect can be explained by an information-theoretic generative mechanism that assumes a noisy conversion of objective evidence (observation) into subjective estimates (judgment).[228] The subadditivity effect is "the tendency to judge probability of the whole to be less than the probabilities of the parts".[229]
2013 Belief, decision-making and behavioral Concept origin The term “end-of-history illusion” originates in a journal article by psychologists Jordi Quoidbach, Daniel Gilbert, and Timothy Wilson detailing their research on the phenomenon and leveraging the phrase coined by Francis Fukuyama's 1992 book of the same name.[230] The end-of-history illusion occurs "when people tend to underestimate how much they will change in the future.”[231]

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External links


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