Difference between revisions of "Speculative timeline of future malaria events"

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This is a '''speculative timeline of future malaria events''', attempting to describe estimates of future events related to the malaria disease.
 
This is a '''speculative timeline of future malaria events''', attempting to describe estimates of future events related to the malaria disease.
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== Sample questions ==
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The following are some interesting questions that can be answered by reading this timeline:
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* Which countries are expected to eradicate malaria in the coming years?
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* What is the prospect of {{w|malaria vaccine}} development?
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* What is the prospect of antimalarial drug development?
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* What are some estimates of the future of the epidemic?
  
 
==Big picture==
 
==Big picture==
  
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
{| class="wikitable"
−
! Time period !! Development summary !! More details
+
! Time period !! Development summary
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|-
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| 2020s || A malaria vaccine is expected to reach the market by this decade. Non-invasive diagnostic for mass population screening is expected to be released. Malaria would be eradicated in a number of countries, including {{w|India}}, {{w|Thailand}}, {{w|Cambodia}}, {{w|Zambia}}, and {{w|Costa Rica}}.
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|-
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| 2030s || Malaria is expected to be eradicated in {{w|Brazil}}, {{w|Indonesia}}, {{w|Vietnam}}, and {{w|Laos}}
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|-
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| 2040s and beyond || Global malaria eradication could be achieved by 2050 according to some scientists. Other estimate that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, {{w|Africa}}.
 
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|}
 
|}
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{| class="sortable wikitable"
 
{| class="sortable wikitable"
−
! Year !! Event type !! Details !! Location !! Predictor !! Date of prediction
+
! Year !! Event type !! Details !! Location !! Predictor !! Type of prediction || Date of prediction
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|-
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| 2020 || Eradication || The {{w|World Health Organization}} identifies 21 countries with the potential to achieve zero indigenous cases of malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Eliminating malaria: 21 countries, a common goal |url=https://www.who.int/malaria/areas/elimination/e2020/en/ |website=who.int |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref> || || {{w|World Health Organization}} || Study || 2016
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|-
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| 2020 || Eradication || {{w|Bhutan}} plans to eliminate malaria by this year, after the country failed to meet its target to eliminate the disease by 2018.<ref>{{cite web |title=Bhutan now targets to eliminate Malaria by 2020 |url=http://www.bbs.bt/news/?p=120435 |website=bbs.bt |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Bhutan}} || Government of Bhutan || Project || Agust, 2019
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|-
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| 2020 || Eradication || Costa Rica hopes to report zero indigenous malaria cases in this year.<ref name="Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022"/> || {{w|Costa Rica}} || Costa Rica Ministry of Health || Project || November, 2019
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|-
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| 2020 || Drug || Single-dose drug OZ Ferroquine is expected to launch this year.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors"/> || || || ||
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|-
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| 2020 || Eradication/Vaccine || A senior government official in Botswana describes the new malaria vaccine, [[w:RTS,S|RTS,S/AS01]], as a boost to Botswana's aspiration to eliminate the disease by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=New malaria vaccine to boost Botswana's aspiration to eliminate disease by 2020: official |url=http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-06/28/c_138179260.htm |website=xinhuanet.com |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Botswana}} || Government of Botswana || Project || June, 2019
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|-
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| 2020 || Diagnosis || A diagnostic tool consisting in the first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to start field trials being rolled out in the {{w|Democratic Republic of Congo}} or {{w|Uganda}} in the second quarter of this year.<ref name="thejournalofmhealth.com">{{cite web |title=Funding Aids Development of Saliva-based Diagnostic Tool in Bid to Rid World of Malaria |url=https://thejournalofmhealth.com/funding-aids-development-of-saliva-based-diagnostic-tool-in-bid-to-rid-world-of-malaria/ |website=thejournalofmhealth.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Democratic Republic of Congo}}, {{w|Uganda}} || || Project ||
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|-
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| 2020 || Drug || KAE609 is expected to be used in combination with other drugs to counter parasite's ability to develop resistance.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors"/> || || || ||
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|-
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| 2020–2021 || Drug || New active ingredients from library screens of agrochemical industry partners ({{w|Syngenta}}, {{w|Bayer}}, {{w|Sumitomo}}, {{w|Dow Chemical Company}}) are expected to be launched.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors"/> || || Project || ||
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|-
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| 2021 || Eradication || {{w|Zambia}} aims to eliminate malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Zambia aims to eradicate malaria by 2021: health minister |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zambia-malaria/zambia-aims-to-eradicate-malaria-by-2021-health-minister-idUSKBN1JN1YA |website=reuters.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Zambia}} || [[w:Ministry of Health (Zambia)|Ministry of Health]] || Project || June 27, 2018
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|-
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| 2021 || Diagnosis || The world’s first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to be launched by this year by South Africa-based Erada Technology Alliance, in collaboration with international partners CellFree Sciences, Frontier Institute, Johns Hopkins University and Oasis Diagnostics.<ref name="thejournalofmhealth.com"/> || {{w|Africa}} || || Project ||
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|-
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| 2021 || Treatment || London based medical device company MediSieve aims to launch a magnetic blood filter intended to enable doctors to remove infected red blood cells from the bloodstream directly, thus reducing parasitaemia, which would result in the usage of fewer IV drugs while minimizing hospital time – leading to cost savings.<ref>{{cite web |title=World Malaria Day: Five latest devices to combat the spread of malaria |url=https://www.nsmedicaldevices.com/news/world-malaria-day-devices-combat-malaria/ |website=nsmedicaldevices.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|United Kingdom}} || MediSieve || Project || ~2019
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|-
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| 2021 || Eradication || The Peruvian Malaria Cero program aims to eradicate malaria in the {{w|Peruvian Amazonia}} by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Forecasting Malaria in the Western Amazon |url=https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNH53A0136P/abstract |website=ui.adsabs.harvard.edu |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria |url=https://www.paho.org/per/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4077:malaria&Itemid=0 |website=paho.org |accessdate=19 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Peru}} ({{w|Peruvian Amazonia}}) || Peruvian Health Ministry || Project || 2017
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|-
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| 2021–2025 || Diagnostic || Non-invasive diagnostic for mass population screening is expected to be released.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors"/> || || || ||
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|-
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| 2022 || Eradication || Costa Rica expects to eliminate malaria nationwide by this year.<ref name="Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022">{{cite web |title=Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022 |url=https://ticotimes.net/2019/11/07/costa-rica-hopes-to-eliminate-malaria-in-country-by-2022 |website=ticotimes.net |accessdate=11 November 2019}}</ref>|| {{w|Costa Rica}} || Costa Rican Ministry of Health || Project || November, 2019
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|-
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| 2022 || Eradication || The {{w|West Java}} administration aims to be malaria-free by this year.<ref name="West Java aims to be malaria-free by 2022">{{cite web |title=West Java aims to be malaria-free by 2022 |url=https://reliefweb.int/report/indonesia/west-java-aims-be-malaria-free-2022 |website=reliefweb.int |accessdate=11 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Indonesia}} ({{w|West Java}}) || West Java health agency || Project || May, 2019
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|-
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| 2023 || Eradication || About 16 million lives are expected to be saved, and 234 million infections are expected to be averted by that year, after announcement by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria of having raised US$14.02 billion for its next three-year funding cycle.<ref name="The RBM Partnership to End Malaria leads global malaria community in celebrating successful Global Fund replenishment">{{cite web |title=The RBM Partnership to End Malaria leads global malaria community in celebrating successful Global Fund replenishment |url=https://endmalaria.org/news/rbm-partnership-end-malaria-leads-global-malaria-community-celebrating-successful-global-fund |website=endmalaria.org |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || Worldwide || {{w|Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria}} || Project || October 10, 2019
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|-
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| 2023 || Eradication || The {{w|Government of Indonesia}} expects that the {{w|World Health Organization}} can declare {{w|Java}} and {{w|Bali}} malaria-free by this year.<ref name="thejakartapost">{{cite web |title=Let’s fight malaria one region at a time |url=https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2019/09/11/lets-fight-malaria-one-region-at-a-time.html |website=thejakartapost.com |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Indonesia}} ({{w|Java}}, {{w|Bali}}) || {{w|Government of Indonesia}} || Project ||
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|-
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| 2024 || Vaccine || The Global Malaria Vaccines Market, by Vaccine Type (Pre-Erythrocytic Vaccine, Erythrocytic Vaccine, Multi-antigen Vaccine), by Agent (''{{w|Plasmodium Falciparum}}'', ''{{w|Plasmodium Vivax}}''), and by Distribution Channel (Hospitals, Clinics, Community Centers) is expected to be valued at US$ 50.6 million in this year.<ref name="nbc29.com">{{cite web |title=At 150.0% CAGR, Malaria Vaccines Market to Surge past US$ 790.7 Million by 2027 |url=https://www.nbc29.com/story/40957707/at-1500-cagr-malaria-vaccines-market-to-surge-past-us-7907-million-by-2027-key-findings-regional-analysis-and-key-players-glaxosmithkline-plc-sanaria |website=nbc29.com |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || || || Estimate || August, 2019
 +
|-
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| 2024 || Vaccine || {{w|RTS,S/AS01}} (trade name Mosquirix) is expected to be marketed in this year.<ref name="nbc29.com"/> || || || Project || August, 2019
 
|-
 
|-
−
| 2020 || Diagnosis || A diagnostic tool consisting in the first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to start field trials being rolled out in the {{w|Democratic Republic of Congo}} or {{w|Uganda}} in the second quarter of this year.<ref name="thejournalofmhealth.com">{{cite web |title=Funding Aids Development of Saliva-based Diagnostic Tool in Bid to Rid World of Malaria |url=https://thejournalofmhealth.com/funding-aids-development-of-saliva-based-diagnostic-tool-in-bid-to-rid-world-of-malaria/ |website=thejournalofmhealth.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Democratic Republic of Congo}}, {{w|Uganda}} || ||
+
| 2024 || Eradication || {{w|Thailand}} aims to eliminate malaria from the country by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Thailand Government launches campaign to eliminate malaria by 2024 |url=https://www.aplma.org/blog/31/thailand-government-launches-campaign-to-eliminate-malaria-by-2024.html |website=aplma.org |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Thailand's fight to eliminate malaria by 2024 |url=https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1666208/thailands-fight-to-eliminate-malaria-by-2024 |website=bangkokpost.com |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Thailand}} || Government of Thailandia || Project || April 25, 2016
 
|-
 
|-
−
| 2021 || Eradication || {{w|Zambia}} aims to eliminate malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Zambia aims to eradicate malaria by 2021: health minister |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zambia-malaria/zambia-aims-to-eradicate-malaria-by-2021-health-minister-idUSKBN1JN1YA |website=reuters.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Zambia}} || [[w:Ministry of Health (Zambia)|Ministry of Health]] || June 27, 2018
+
| 2025 || Eradication || {{w|Cambodia}} aims to eliminate malaria infections by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Millions to receive insecticide-treated mosquito nets |url=http://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/fr/node/251258 |website=thenewhumanitarian.org |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Cambodia}} || Cambodian Prime Minister || Project ||  
 
|-
 
|-
−
| 2021 || Diagnosis || The world’s first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to be launched by this year by South Africa-based Erada Technology Alliance, in collaboration with international partners CellFree Sciences, Frontier Institute, Johns Hopkins University and Oasis Diagnostics.<ref name="thejournalofmhealth.com"/> || {{w|Africa}} || ||
+
| 2025 || Eradication || The {{w|Government of Indonesia}} expects that the {{w|World Health Organization}} can declare {{w|Sumatra}}, {{w|Sulawesi}} and {{w|West Nusa Tenggara}} malaria-free by this year.<ref name="thejakartapost"/> || {{w|Indonesia}} ({{w|Sumatra}}, {{w|Sulawesi}}, {{w|West Nusa Tenggara}}) || {{w|Government of Indonesia}} || Project ||  
 
|-
 
|-
−
| 2021 || Treatment || London based medical device company MediSieve aims to launch a magnetic blood filter intended to enable doctors to remove infected red blood cells from the bloodstream directly, thus reducing parasitaemia, which would result in the usage of fewer IV drugs while minimizing hospital time – leading to cost savings.<ref>{{cite web |title=World Malaria Day: Five latest devices to combat the spread of malaria |url=https://www.nsmedicaldevices.com/news/world-malaria-day-devices-combat-malaria/ |website=nsmedicaldevices.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|United Kingdom}} || MediSieve || ~2019
+
| 2025 || Eradication || Vietnam expects to eliminate the ''{{w|Plasmodium falciparum}}'' malaria parasite by this year.<ref name="english.vov.vn">{{cite web |title=Vietnam aims to eradicate malaria by 2030 |url=https://english.vov.vn/society/vietnam-aims-to-eradicate-malaria-by-2030-395752.vov |website=english.vov.vn |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Vietnam}} || Government of Vietnam || Project || April, 2019
 
|-
 
|-
−
| 2040 || Eradication || Study finds that achieving malaria eradication by this year would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. It would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Willis |first1=Derek W. |last2=Hamon |first2=Nick |title=Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality |doi=10.12688/gatesopenres.12843.2 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6266653/ |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Worldwide}} || ||
+
| 2025 || Vaccine || The Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap expects to develop a ''{{w|P. Falciparum}}'' malaria vaccine that would have a protective efficacy of more than 80% against clinical disease and would provide protection for longer than four years.<ref>{{cite web |title=Global strategy aims for effective malaria vaccine by 2025 |url=https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2006/np35/en/ |website=who.int |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || || Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap || Project || December, 2006
 
|-
 
|-
−
| 2050 || Eradication || Global malaria eradication could be achieved by this time, according to a coalition of 41 leading scientists, economists and health-policy experts writing in the Lancet.<ref>{{cite web |title=It's 'Ambitious' — But Possible — to Eradicate Malaria by 2050, According to a Landmark Report |url=https://time.com/5669743/malaria-eradication-report/ |website=time.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Could be Eradicated By 2050, Global Health Experts Say |url=https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2019/09/415341/malaria-could-be-eradicated-2050-global-health-experts-say |website=ucsf.edu |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Mahase |first1=Elisabeth |title=Malaria could be eradicated by 2050, say global experts |doi=10.1136/bmj.l5501 |url=https://www.bmj.com/content/366/bmj.l5501}}</ref> || {{w|Worldwide}} || ||
+
| 2026 || Vaccine || The global malaria vaccines market is expected to reach US$ 134.9 million by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=At 33.2% CAGR, Malaria Vaccines Market Size Set to Register 134.9 million USD by 2026 |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/at-332-cagr-malaria-vaccines-market-size-set-to-register-1349-million-usd-by-2026-2019-05-08 |website=marketwatch.com |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || || || Study || May, 2019
 
|-
 
|-
−
| 2050 || Epidemic || The {{w|World Health Organization}}’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.<ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Eradication Feasible by 2050, Says New Lancet Report |url=https://www.healthpolicy-watch.org/malaria-eradication-feasible-by-2050-says-new-lancet-commission-report/ |website=healthpolicy-watch.org |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Africa}} || ||
+
| 2026 || Vaccine || The malaria vaccines market is expected to reach US$ 156.8 million by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Vaccines Market Outlook 2018-2026 by Major Key Players Like GlaxoSmithKline, GenVec, Inc., Nobelpharma, and Sanaria others |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/malaria-vaccines-market-outlook-2018-2026-by-major-key-players-like-glaxosmithkline-genvec-inc-nobelpharma-and-sanaria-others-2019-09-17 |website=marketwatch.com |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || || Polaris Market Research || Study || September, 2019
 
|-
 
|-
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| 2051–2080 || Endemicity || Temperature estimates for this period speculate that up to 96.5% of the territory of {{w|Germany}} could experience a 4–5 month transmission window for malaria.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Schröder |first1=Winfried |last2=Schmidt |first2=Gunther |title=Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures |url=https://books.google.com.ar/books?id=5jG8BAAAQBAJ&pg=PR7&lpg=PR7&dq=%22malaria%22+%22in+2051..2100%22&source=bl&ots=HHZdeEiS61&sig=ACfU3U3Aj7paiqsbaApICPcqwZAkLxhcuQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjfn_r1qODlAhWJGbkGHZBNA1oQ6AEwDXoECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=%22malaria%22%20%22in%202051..2100%22&f=false}}</ref> || {{w|Germany}} || {{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} || ~2013?
+
| 2027 || Eradication || The {{w|Government of Indonesia}} expects that the {{w|World Health Organization}} can declare {{w|Kalimantan}} and {{w|North Maluku}} malaria-free by this year.<ref name="thejakartapost"/> || {{w|Indonesia}} ({{w|Kalimantan}}, {{w|North Maluku}}) || {{w|Government of Indonesia}} || Project ||
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|-
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| 2027 || Eradication || The {{w|Indian Government}} National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination aims to eradicate malaria from the country by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination (2017-22) |url=http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/content/445149/national-strategic-plan-for-malaria-elimination-2017-22/ |website=indiaenvironmentportal.org.in |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=World Malaria Day 2019 |url=https://www.nhp.gov.in/world-malaria-day-2019_pg |website=nhp.gov.in |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|India}} || {{w|Indian Government}} || Project || 2017
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|-
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| 2028 || Eradication || {{w|Vanuatu}} Prime Minister claims malaria will be eradicated in the country's 83 islands by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria eradication by 2028 |url=https://dailypost.vu/news/malaria-eradication-by/article_ca5be1dd-d285-527c-94fa-e21e66d98d0f.html |website=dailypost.vu |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria expected to be eradicated from Vanuatu by 2028 |url=https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/356279/malaria-expected-to-be-eradicated-from-vanuatu-by-2028 |website=rnz.co.nz |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Vanatu}} || Vanuatu Government || Project || April, 2018
 +
|-
 +
| 2028 || Eradication || The {{w|Government of Indonesia}} expects that the {{w|World Health Organization}} can declare {{w|Maluku}} and {{w|Nusa Tenggara Timur}} malaria-free by this year.<ref name="thejakartapost"/> || {{w|Indonesia}} ({{w|Maluku}}, {{w|Nusa Tenggara Timur}}) || {{w|Government of Indonesia}} || Project ||
 +
|-
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| 2029 || Eradication || The {{w|Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation}} aims to have {{w|CRISPR}} gene modified mosquitoes approved for field use by this year somewhere in Africa. The research focuses on developing a “gene drive” to aid in the genetic engineering of the species of mosquito responsible for the proliferation of malaria.<ref>{{cite web |title=Bill Gates Doubles His Bet on Wiping Out Mosquitoes with Gene Editing |url=https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602304/bill-gates-doubles-his-bet-on-wiping-out-mosquitoes-with-gene-editing/ |website=technologyreview.com |accessdate=17 November 2019}}</ref> || Africa || {{w|Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation}} || Project ||
 +
|-
 +
| 2030 || Eradication || {{w|Laos}} pledges to eliminate malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite web |title=U.S. PROVIDES 174,000 ADDITIONAL MOSQUITO NETS TO PREVENT MALARIA |url=https://www.usaid.gov/laos/press-releases/july-17-2019-us-provides-174000-additional-mosquito-nets-prevent-malaria |website=usaid.gov |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=TOWARDS A MALARIA-FREE LAOS |url=https://www.unops.org/news-and-stories/stories/stamping-out-malaria-for-good/towards-a-malaria-free-laos |website=unops.org |accessdate=18 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Laos}} || Government of Laos || Project ||
 +
|-
 +
| 2030 || Eradication || {{w|Indonesia}} aims to become malaria-free by this year.<ref name="West Java aims to be malaria-free by 2022"/> || {{w|Indonesia}} || {{w|Government of Indonesia}} || Project || 2008
 +
|-
 +
| 2030 || Eradication || {{w|Vietnam}} aims to eradicate malaria by this year.<ref name="english.vov.vn"/> || {{w|Vietnam}} || Government of Vietnam || Project || April, 2019
 +
|-
 +
| 2030 || Eradication || The {{w|Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria}} expects to meet the Sustainable Development Goals target of ending {{w|AIDS}}, {{w|tuberculosis}} and {{w|malaria}} as epidemics by that year.<ref name="The RBM Partnership to End Malaria leads global malaria community in celebrating successful Global Fund replenishment"/> || Worldwide || {{w|Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria}} || Project || October 10, 2019
 +
|-
 +
| 2030 || Eradication || {{w|Brazil}} national strategy (Plano de Eliminação da Malária no Brasil), together with the Global Technical Strategy for Malaria aim to eliminate malaria by this year.<ref>{{cite journal |title=Environmental and socioeconomic analysis of malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon, 2010–2015 |doi=10.11606/s1518-8787.2019053000983 |url=http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-89102019000100244}}</ref> || {{w|Brazil}} || {{w|Government of Brazil}} || Project || 2016
 +
|-
 +
| 2035 || Eradication || Cameroon's national malaria control program (NMCP) aims to reduce malaria transmission to less than 10% by this year in the country, using high coverage of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) as the cornerstone of the program's malaria control strategy.<ref name="Parasites & Vectors">{{cite journal |last1=Ndo |first1=Cyrille |last2=Kopya |first2=Edmond |last3=Donbou |first3=Marie Agathe |last4=Njiokou |first4=Flobert |last5=Awono-Ambene |first5=Parfait |last6=Wondji |first6=Charles |title=Elevated Plasmodium infection rates and high pyrethroid resistance in major malaria vectors in a forested area of Cameroon highlight challenges of malaria control |journal=Parasites & Vectors |url=https://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13071-018-2759-y}}</ref> || {{w|Cameroon}} || National malaria control program || Project ||
 +
|-
 +
| 2040 || Eradication || Study finds that achieving malaria eradication by this year would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. It would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Willis |first1=Derek W. |last2=Hamon |first2=Nick |title=Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality |doi=10.12688/gatesopenres.12843.2 | url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6266653/ |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Worldwide}} || || Study ||
 +
|-
 +
| 2050 || Eradication || Global malaria eradication could be achieved by this time, according to a coalition of 41 leading scientists, economists and health-policy experts writing in the Lancet.<ref>{{cite web |title=It's 'Ambitious' — But Possible — to Eradicate Malaria by 2050, According to a Landmark Report |url=https://time.com/5669743/malaria-eradication-report/ |website=time.com |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Could be Eradicated By 2050, Global Health Experts Say |url=https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2019/09/415341/malaria-could-be-eradicated-2050-global-health-experts-say |website=ucsf.edu |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Mahase |first1=Elisabeth |title=Malaria could be eradicated by 2050, say global experts |doi=10.1136/bmj.l5501 |url=https://www.bmj.com/content/366/bmj.l5501}}</ref> || {{w|Worldwide}} || || Study ||
 +
|-
 +
| 2050 || Epidemic || The {{w|World Health Organization}}’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.<ref>{{cite web |title=Malaria Eradication Feasible by 2050, Says New Lancet Report |url=https://www.healthpolicy-watch.org/malaria-eradication-feasible-by-2050-says-new-lancet-commission-report/ |website=healthpolicy-watch.org |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Africa}} || || Study ||
 +
|-
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| 2051–2080 || Endemicity || Temperature estimates for this period speculate that up to 96.5% of the territory of {{w|Germany}} could experience a 4–5 month transmission window for malaria.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Schröder |first1=Winfried |last2=Schmidt |first2=Gunther |title=Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures |url=https://books.google.com.ar/books?id=5jG8BAAAQBAJ&pg=PR7&lpg=PR7&dq=%22malaria%22+%22in+2051..2100%22&source=bl&ots=HHZdeEiS61&sig=ACfU3U3Aj7paiqsbaApICPcqwZAkLxhcuQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjfn_r1qODlAhWJGbkGHZBNA1oQ6AEwDXoECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=%22malaria%22%20%22in%202051..2100%22&f=false}}</ref> || {{w|Germany}} || {{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} || Study || <2013
 +
|-
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| 2070 || Vector || Members of the ''{{w|Anopheles albitarsis}}'' complex are expected to become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in {{w|South America}} by this time.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Zorello Laporta |first1=Gabriel |last2=Linton |first2=Yvonne-Marie |last3=Wilkerson |first3=Richard C. |last4=Bergo |first4=Eduardo Sterlino |last5=Sayuri Nagaki |first5=Sandra |last6=Sant’Ana |first6=Denise Cristina |last7=Mureb Sallum |first7=Maria Anice |title=Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios |doi=10.1186/s13071-015-1038-4 |pmid=26283539 |url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4539674/}}</ref> || {{w|South America}} || Gabriel Zorello Laporta, Yvonne-Marie Linton, Richard C. Wilkerson, Eduardo Sterlino Bergo, Sandra Sayuri Nagaki, Denise Cristina Sant’Ana, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum || Study || August 2015
 +
|-
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| 2080 || Epidemiology || The number of people at risk of malaria around dams and associated reservoirs in {{w|Sub-Saharan Africa}} is expected to nearly double to about 25 million by this time.<ref>{{cite web |title=Dam-related malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa to almost double by 2080, UCI study finds |url=https://news.uci.edu/2016/09/08/uci-study-finds-malaria-risk-will-rise-around-dams-in-sub-saharan-africa/ |website=news.uci.edu |accessdate=10 November 2019}}</ref> || {{w|Sub-Saharan Africa}} ||  CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land & Ecosystems || Study || ~September 2016
 
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==See also==
 
==See also==
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 +
* [[Timeline of malaria]]
 +
* [[Timeline of malaria vaccine]]
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* [[Timeline of malaria in 2014]]
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* [[Timeline of malaria in 2015]]
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* [[Timeline of malaria in 2016]]
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* [[Timeline of malaria in 2017]]
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* [[Timeline of malaria in 2018]]
  
 
==External links==
 
==External links==

Latest revision as of 10:07, 1 January 2020

This is a speculative timeline of future malaria events, attempting to describe estimates of future events related to the malaria disease.

Sample questions

The following are some interesting questions that can be answered by reading this timeline:

  • Which countries are expected to eradicate malaria in the coming years?
  • What is the prospect of malaria vaccine development?
  • What is the prospect of antimalarial drug development?
  • What are some estimates of the future of the epidemic?

Big picture

Time period Development summary
2020s A malaria vaccine is expected to reach the market by this decade. Non-invasive diagnostic for mass population screening is expected to be released. Malaria would be eradicated in a number of countries, including India, Thailand, Cambodia, Zambia, and Costa Rica.
2030s Malaria is expected to be eradicated in Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Laos
2040s and beyond Global malaria eradication could be achieved by 2050 according to some scientists. Other estimate that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.

Full timeline

Year Event type Details Location Predictor Type of prediction Date of prediction
2020 Eradication The World Health Organization identifies 21 countries with the potential to achieve zero indigenous cases of malaria by this year.[1] World Health Organization Study 2016
2020 Eradication Bhutan plans to eliminate malaria by this year, after the country failed to meet its target to eliminate the disease by 2018.[2] Bhutan Government of Bhutan Project Agust, 2019
2020 Eradication Costa Rica hopes to report zero indigenous malaria cases in this year.[3] Costa Rica Costa Rica Ministry of Health Project November, 2019
2020 Drug Single-dose drug OZ Ferroquine is expected to launch this year.[4]
2020 Eradication/Vaccine A senior government official in Botswana describes the new malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, as a boost to Botswana's aspiration to eliminate the disease by this year.[5] Botswana Government of Botswana Project June, 2019
2020 Diagnosis A diagnostic tool consisting in the first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to start field trials being rolled out in the Democratic Republic of Congo or Uganda in the second quarter of this year.[6] Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda Project
2020 Drug KAE609 is expected to be used in combination with other drugs to counter parasite's ability to develop resistance.[4]
2020–2021 Drug New active ingredients from library screens of agrochemical industry partners (Syngenta, Bayer, Sumitomo, Dow Chemical Company) are expected to be launched.[4] Project
2021 Eradication Zambia aims to eliminate malaria by this year.[7] Zambia Ministry of Health Project June 27, 2018
2021 Diagnosis The world’s first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to be launched by this year by South Africa-based Erada Technology Alliance, in collaboration with international partners CellFree Sciences, Frontier Institute, Johns Hopkins University and Oasis Diagnostics.[6] Africa Project
2021 Treatment London based medical device company MediSieve aims to launch a magnetic blood filter intended to enable doctors to remove infected red blood cells from the bloodstream directly, thus reducing parasitaemia, which would result in the usage of fewer IV drugs while minimizing hospital time – leading to cost savings.[8] United Kingdom MediSieve Project ~2019
2021 Eradication The Peruvian Malaria Cero program aims to eradicate malaria in the Peruvian Amazonia by this year.[9][10] Peru (Peruvian Amazonia) Peruvian Health Ministry Project 2017
2021–2025 Diagnostic Non-invasive diagnostic for mass population screening is expected to be released.[4]
2022 Eradication Costa Rica expects to eliminate malaria nationwide by this year.[3] Costa Rica Costa Rican Ministry of Health Project November, 2019
2022 Eradication The West Java administration aims to be malaria-free by this year.[11] Indonesia (West Java) West Java health agency Project May, 2019
2023 Eradication About 16 million lives are expected to be saved, and 234 million infections are expected to be averted by that year, after announcement by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria of having raised US$14.02 billion for its next three-year funding cycle.[12] Worldwide Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria Project October 10, 2019
2023 Eradication The Government of Indonesia expects that the World Health Organization can declare Java and Bali malaria-free by this year.[13] Indonesia (Java, Bali) Government of Indonesia Project
2024 Vaccine The Global Malaria Vaccines Market, by Vaccine Type (Pre-Erythrocytic Vaccine, Erythrocytic Vaccine, Multi-antigen Vaccine), by Agent (Plasmodium Falciparum, Plasmodium Vivax), and by Distribution Channel (Hospitals, Clinics, Community Centers) is expected to be valued at US$ 50.6 million in this year.[14] Estimate August, 2019
2024 Vaccine RTS,S/AS01 (trade name Mosquirix) is expected to be marketed in this year.[14] Project August, 2019
2024 Eradication Thailand aims to eliminate malaria from the country by this year.[15][16] Thailand Government of Thailandia Project April 25, 2016
2025 Eradication Cambodia aims to eliminate malaria infections by this year.[17] Cambodia Cambodian Prime Minister Project
2025 Eradication The Government of Indonesia expects that the World Health Organization can declare Sumatra, Sulawesi and West Nusa Tenggara malaria-free by this year.[13] Indonesia (Sumatra, Sulawesi, West Nusa Tenggara) Government of Indonesia Project
2025 Eradication Vietnam expects to eliminate the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite by this year.[18] Vietnam Government of Vietnam Project April, 2019
2025 Vaccine The Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap expects to develop a P. Falciparum malaria vaccine that would have a protective efficacy of more than 80% against clinical disease and would provide protection for longer than four years.[19] Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap Project December, 2006
2026 Vaccine The global malaria vaccines market is expected to reach US$ 134.9 million by this year.[20] Study May, 2019
2026 Vaccine The malaria vaccines market is expected to reach US$ 156.8 million by this year.[21] Polaris Market Research Study September, 2019
2027 Eradication The Government of Indonesia expects that the World Health Organization can declare Kalimantan and North Maluku malaria-free by this year.[13] Indonesia (Kalimantan, North Maluku) Government of Indonesia Project
2027 Eradication The Indian Government National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination aims to eradicate malaria from the country by this year.[22][23] India Indian Government Project 2017
2028 Eradication Vanuatu Prime Minister claims malaria will be eradicated in the country's 83 islands by this year.[24][25] Vanatu Vanuatu Government Project April, 2018
2028 Eradication The Government of Indonesia expects that the World Health Organization can declare Maluku and Nusa Tenggara Timur malaria-free by this year.[13] Indonesia (Maluku, Nusa Tenggara Timur) Government of Indonesia Project
2029 Eradication The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation aims to have CRISPR gene modified mosquitoes approved for field use by this year somewhere in Africa. The research focuses on developing a “gene drive” to aid in the genetic engineering of the species of mosquito responsible for the proliferation of malaria.[26] Africa Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Project
2030 Eradication Laos pledges to eliminate malaria by this year.[27][28] Laos Government of Laos Project
2030 Eradication Indonesia aims to become malaria-free by this year.[11] Indonesia Government of Indonesia Project 2008
2030 Eradication Vietnam aims to eradicate malaria by this year.[18] Vietnam Government of Vietnam Project April, 2019
2030 Eradication The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria expects to meet the Sustainable Development Goals target of ending AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria as epidemics by that year.[12] Worldwide Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria Project October 10, 2019
2030 Eradication Brazil national strategy (Plano de Eliminação da Malária no Brasil), together with the Global Technical Strategy for Malaria aim to eliminate malaria by this year.[29] Brazil Government of Brazil Project 2016
2035 Eradication Cameroon's national malaria control program (NMCP) aims to reduce malaria transmission to less than 10% by this year in the country, using high coverage of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) as the cornerstone of the program's malaria control strategy.[4] Cameroon National malaria control program Project
2040 Eradication Study finds that achieving malaria eradication by this year would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. It would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days.[30] Worldwide Study
2050 Eradication Global malaria eradication could be achieved by this time, according to a coalition of 41 leading scientists, economists and health-policy experts writing in the Lancet.[31][32][33] Worldwide Study
2050 Epidemic The World Health Organization’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.[34] Africa Study
2051–2080 Endemicity Temperature estimates for this period speculate that up to 96.5% of the territory of Germany could experience a 4–5 month transmission window for malaria.[35] Germany Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Study <2013
2070 Vector Members of the Anopheles albitarsis complex are expected to become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America by this time.[36] South America Gabriel Zorello Laporta, Yvonne-Marie Linton, Richard C. Wilkerson, Eduardo Sterlino Bergo, Sandra Sayuri Nagaki, Denise Cristina Sant’Ana, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum Study August 2015
2080 Epidemiology The number of people at risk of malaria around dams and associated reservoirs in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to nearly double to about 25 million by this time.[37] Sub-Saharan Africa CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land & Ecosystems Study ~September 2016

Meta information on the timeline

How the timeline was built

The initial version of the timeline was written by User:Sebastian.

Funding information for this timeline is available.

Feedback and comments

Feedback for the timeline can be provided at the following places:

  • FIXME

What the timeline is still missing

Timeline update strategy

See also

External links

References

  1. ↑ "Eliminating malaria: 21 countries, a common goal". who.int. Retrieved 19 November 2019. 
  2. ↑ "Bhutan now targets to eliminate Malaria by 2020". bbs.bt. Retrieved 19 November 2019. 
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 "Costa Rica hopes to eliminate malaria in country by 2022". ticotimes.net. Retrieved 11 November 2019. 
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Ndo, Cyrille; Kopya, Edmond; Donbou, Marie Agathe; Njiokou, Flobert; Awono-Ambene, Parfait; Wondji, Charles. "Elevated Plasmodium infection rates and high pyrethroid resistance in major malaria vectors in a forested area of Cameroon highlight challenges of malaria control". Parasites & Vectors. 
  5. ↑ "New malaria vaccine to boost Botswana's aspiration to eliminate disease by 2020: official". xinhuanet.com. Retrieved 19 November 2019. 
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 "Funding Aids Development of Saliva-based Diagnostic Tool in Bid to Rid World of Malaria". thejournalofmhealth.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  7. ↑ "Zambia aims to eradicate malaria by 2021: health minister". reuters.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  8. ↑ "World Malaria Day: Five latest devices to combat the spread of malaria". nsmedicaldevices.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  9. ↑ "Forecasting Malaria in the Western Amazon". ui.adsabs.harvard.edu. Retrieved 19 November 2019. 
  10. ↑ "Malaria". paho.org. Retrieved 19 November 2019. 
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 "West Java aims to be malaria-free by 2022". reliefweb.int. Retrieved 11 November 2019. 
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 "The RBM Partnership to End Malaria leads global malaria community in celebrating successful Global Fund replenishment". endmalaria.org. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 "Let's fight malaria one region at a time". thejakartapost.com. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 "At 150.0% CAGR, Malaria Vaccines Market to Surge past US$ 790.7 Million by 2027". nbc29.com. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  15. ↑ "Thailand Government launches campaign to eliminate malaria by 2024". aplma.org. Retrieved 18 November 2019. 
  16. ↑ "Thailand's fight to eliminate malaria by 2024". bangkokpost.com. Retrieved 18 November 2019. 
  17. ↑ "Millions to receive insecticide-treated mosquito nets". thenewhumanitarian.org. Retrieved 18 November 2019. 
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 "Vietnam aims to eradicate malaria by 2030". english.vov.vn. Retrieved 18 November 2019. 
  19. ↑ "Global strategy aims for effective malaria vaccine by 2025". who.int. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  20. ↑ "At 33.2% CAGR, Malaria Vaccines Market Size Set to Register 134.9 million USD by 2026". marketwatch.com. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  21. ↑ "Malaria Vaccines Market Outlook 2018-2026 by Major Key Players Like GlaxoSmithKline, GenVec, Inc., Nobelpharma, and Sanaria others". marketwatch.com. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  22. ↑ "National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination (2017-22)". indiaenvironmentportal.org.in. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  23. ↑ "World Malaria Day 2019". nhp.gov.in. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  24. ↑ "Malaria eradication by 2028". dailypost.vu. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  25. ↑ "Malaria expected to be eradicated from Vanuatu by 2028". rnz.co.nz. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  26. ↑ "Bill Gates Doubles His Bet on Wiping Out Mosquitoes with Gene Editing". technologyreview.com. Retrieved 17 November 2019. 
  27. ↑ "U.S. PROVIDES 174,000 ADDITIONAL MOSQUITO NETS TO PREVENT MALARIA". usaid.gov. Retrieved 18 November 2019. 
  28. ↑ "TOWARDS A MALARIA-FREE LAOS". unops.org. Retrieved 18 November 2019. 
  29. ↑ "Environmental and socioeconomic analysis of malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon, 2010–2015". doi:10.11606/s1518-8787.2019053000983. 
  30. ↑ Willis, Derek W.; Hamon, Nick. "Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality". doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.12843.2. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  31. ↑ "It's 'Ambitious' — But Possible — to Eradicate Malaria by 2050, According to a Landmark Report". time.com. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  32. ↑ "Malaria Could be Eradicated By 2050, Global Health Experts Say". ucsf.edu. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  33. ↑ Mahase, Elisabeth. "Malaria could be eradicated by 2050, say global experts". doi:10.1136/bmj.l5501. 
  34. ↑ "Malaria Eradication Feasible by 2050, Says New Lancet Report". healthpolicy-watch.org. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
  35. ↑ Schröder, Winfried; Schmidt, Gunther. Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures. 
  36. ↑ Zorello Laporta, Gabriel; Linton, Yvonne-Marie; Wilkerson, Richard C.; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino; Sayuri Nagaki, Sandra; Sant’Ana, Denise Cristina; Mureb Sallum, Maria Anice. "Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios". PMID 26283539. doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1038-4. 
  37. ↑ "Dam-related malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa to almost double by 2080, UCI study finds". news.uci.edu. Retrieved 10 November 2019. 
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