Speculative timeline of future malaria events
This is a speculative timeline of future malaria events, attempting to describe estimates of future events related to the malaria disease.
The following are some interesting questions that can be answered by reading this timeline:
- Which countries are expected to eradicate malaria in the coming years?
- What is the prospect of malaria vaccine development?
- What is the prospect of antimalarial drug development?
- What are some estimates of the future of the epidemic?
|Time period||Development summary|
|2020s||A malaria vaccine is expected to reach the market by this decade. Non-invasive diagnostic for mass population screening is expected to be released. Malaria would be eradicated in a number of countries, including India, Thailand, Cambodia, Zambia, and Costa Rica.|
|2030s||Malaria is expected to be eradicated in Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Laos|
|2040s and beyond||Global malaria eradication could be achieved by 2050 according to some scientists. Other estimate that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.|
|Year||Event type||Details||Location||Predictor||Type of prediction||Date of prediction|
|2020||Eradication||The World Health Organization identifies 21 countries with the potential to achieve zero indigenous cases of malaria by this year.||World Health Organization||Study||2016|
|2020||Eradication||Bhutan plans to eliminate malaria by this year, after the country failed to meet its target to eliminate the disease by 2018.||Bhutan||Government of Bhutan||Project||Agust, 2019|
|2020||Eradication||Costa Rica hopes to report zero indigenous malaria cases in this year.||Costa Rica||Costa Rica Ministry of Health||Project||November, 2019|
|2020||Drug||Single-dose drug OZ Ferroquine is expected to launch this year.|
|2020||Eradication/Vaccine||A senior government official in Botswana describes the new malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, as a boost to Botswana's aspiration to eliminate the disease by this year.||Botswana||Government of Botswana||Project||June, 2019|
|2020||Diagnosis||A diagnostic tool consisting in the first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to start field trials being rolled out in the Democratic Republic of Congo or Uganda in the second quarter of this year.||Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda||Project|
|2020||Drug||KAE609 is expected to be used in combination with other drugs to counter parasite's ability to develop resistance.|
|2020–2021||Drug||New active ingredients from library screens of agrochemical industry partners (Syngenta, Bayer, Sumitomo, Dow Chemical Company) are expected to be launched.||Project|
|2021||Eradication||Zambia aims to eliminate malaria by this year.||Zambia||Ministry of Health||Project||June 27, 2018|
|2021||Diagnosis||The world’s first ever saliva-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is expected to be launched by this year by South Africa-based Erada Technology Alliance, in collaboration with international partners CellFree Sciences, Frontier Institute, Johns Hopkins University and Oasis Diagnostics.||Africa||Project|
|2021||Treatment||London based medical device company MediSieve aims to launch a magnetic blood filter intended to enable doctors to remove infected red blood cells from the bloodstream directly, thus reducing parasitaemia, which would result in the usage of fewer IV drugs while minimizing hospital time – leading to cost savings.||United Kingdom||MediSieve||Project||~2019|
|2021||Eradication||The Peruvian Malaria Cero program aims to eradicate malaria in the Peruvian Amazonia by this year.||Peru (Peruvian Amazonia)||Peruvian Health Ministry||Project||2017|
|2021–2025||Diagnostic||Non-invasive diagnostic for mass population screening is expected to be released.|
|2022||Eradication||Costa Rica expects to eliminate malaria nationwide by this year.||Costa Rica||Costa Rican Ministry of Health||Project||November, 2019|
|2022||Eradication||The West Java administration aims to be malaria-free by this year.||Indonesia (West Java)||West Java health agency||Project||May, 2019|
|2023||Eradication||About 16 million lives are expected to be saved, and 234 million infections are expected to be averted by that year, after announcement by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria of having raised US$14.02 billion for its next three-year funding cycle.||Worldwide||Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria||Project||October 10, 2019|
|2023||Eradication||The Government of Indonesia expects that the World Health Organization can declare Java and Bali malaria-free by this year.||Indonesia (Java, Bali)||Government of Indonesia||Project|
|2024||Vaccine||The Global Malaria Vaccines Market, by Vaccine Type (Pre-Erythrocytic Vaccine, Erythrocytic Vaccine, Multi-antigen Vaccine), by Agent (Plasmodium Falciparum, Plasmodium Vivax), and by Distribution Channel (Hospitals, Clinics, Community Centers) is expected to be valued at US$ 50.6 million in this year.||Estimate||August, 2019|
|2024||Vaccine||RTS,S/AS01 (trade name Mosquirix) is expected to be marketed in this year.||Project||August, 2019|
|2024||Eradication||Thailand aims to eliminate malaria from the country by this year.||Thailand||Government of Thailandia||Project||April 25, 2016|
|2025||Eradication||Cambodia aims to eliminate malaria infections by this year.||Cambodia||Cambodian Prime Minister||Project|
|2025||Eradication||The Government of Indonesia expects that the World Health Organization can declare Sumatra, Sulawesi and West Nusa Tenggara malaria-free by this year.||Indonesia (Sumatra, Sulawesi, West Nusa Tenggara)||Government of Indonesia||Project|
|2025||Eradication||Vietnam expects to eliminate the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite by this year.||Vietnam||Government of Vietnam||Project||April, 2019|
|2025||Vaccine||The Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap expects to develop a P. Falciparum malaria vaccine that would have a protective efficacy of more than 80% against clinical disease and would provide protection for longer than four years.||Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap||Project||December, 2006|
|2026||Vaccine||The global malaria vaccines market is expected to reach US$ 134.9 million by this year.||Study||May, 2019|
|2026||Vaccine||The malaria vaccines market is expected to reach US$ 156.8 million by this year.||Polaris Market Research||Study||September, 2019|
|2027||Eradication||The Government of Indonesia expects that the World Health Organization can declare Kalimantan and North Maluku malaria-free by this year.||Indonesia (Kalimantan, North Maluku)||Government of Indonesia||Project|
|2027||Eradication||The Indian Government National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination aims to eradicate malaria from the country by this year.||India||Indian Government||Project||2017|
|2028||Eradication||Vanuatu Prime Minister claims malaria will be eradicated in the country's 83 islands by this year.||Vanatu||Vanuatu Government||Project||April, 2018|
|2028||Eradication||The Government of Indonesia expects that the World Health Organization can declare Maluku and Nusa Tenggara Timur malaria-free by this year.||Indonesia (Maluku, Nusa Tenggara Timur)||Government of Indonesia||Project|
|2029||Eradication||The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation aims to have CRISPR gene modified mosquitoes approved for field use by this year somewhere in Africa. The research focuses on developing a “gene drive” to aid in the genetic engineering of the species of mosquito responsible for the proliferation of malaria.||Africa||Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation||Project|
|2030||Eradication||Laos pledges to eliminate malaria by this year.||Laos||Government of Laos||Project|
|2030||Eradication||Indonesia aims to become malaria-free by this year.||Indonesia||Government of Indonesia||Project||2008|
|2030||Eradication||Vietnam aims to eradicate malaria by this year.||Vietnam||Government of Vietnam||Project||April, 2019|
|2030||Eradication||The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria expects to meet the Sustainable Development Goals target of ending AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria as epidemics by that year.||Worldwide||Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria||Project||October 10, 2019|
|2030||Eradication||Brazil national strategy (Plano de Eliminação da Malária no Brasil), together with the Global Technical Strategy for Malaria aim to eliminate malaria by this year.||Brazil||Government of Brazil||Project||2016|
|2035||Eradication||Cameroon's national malaria control program (NMCP) aims to reduce malaria transmission to less than 10% by this year in the country, using high coverage of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) as the cornerstone of the program's malaria control strategy.||Cameroon||National malaria control program||Project|
|2040||Eradication||Study finds that achieving malaria eradication by this year would prevent approximately 841 million cases of malaria and thereby decrease the number of lost workdays among agricultural households by approximately 3.2 billion days. It would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days.||Worldwide||Study|
|2050||Eradication||Global malaria eradication could be achieved by this time, according to a coalition of 41 leading scientists, economists and health-policy experts writing in the Lancet.||Worldwide||Study|
|2050||Epidemic||The World Health Organization’s Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication (SAGEme) estimates that under even with the most optimistic scenarios, in 2050 there would still be 11 million malaria cases annually in malaria’s epicenter, Africa.||Africa||Study|
|2051–2080||Endemicity||Temperature estimates for this period speculate that up to 96.5% of the territory of Germany could experience a 4–5 month transmission window for malaria.||Germany||Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change||Study||<2013|
|2070||Vector||Members of the Anopheles albitarsis complex are expected to become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America by this time.||South America||Gabriel Zorello Laporta, Yvonne-Marie Linton, Richard C. Wilkerson, Eduardo Sterlino Bergo, Sandra Sayuri Nagaki, Denise Cristina Sant’Ana, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum||Study||August 2015|
|2080||Epidemiology||The number of people at risk of malaria around dams and associated reservoirs in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to nearly double to about 25 million by this time.||Sub-Saharan Africa||CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land & Ecosystems||Study||~September 2016|
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How the timeline was built
The initial version of the timeline was written by User:Sebastian.
Funding information for this timeline is available.
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What the timeline is still missing
Timeline update strategy
- Timeline of malaria
- Timeline of malaria vaccine
- Timeline of malaria in 2014
- Timeline of malaria in 2015
- Timeline of malaria in 2016
- Timeline of malaria in 2017
- Timeline of malaria in 2018
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